My friends from out East are giving me such a hard time because we fired Tubby Smith. The Tubby Kentucky brand, along with an unfair bias because of the Indiana win and the UCLA win have really blinded a lot of people to Tubby's mediocre results. I cheered for Tubby for 6 years and I think if you'll look, you won't find a negative post that I have made about him. I am not troll. But after bickering with my friends for a week, I was truly interested to dig a bit deeper. Many people on GH contend that "what really matters" are B1G wins and NCAA appearances and wins. It's pretty striking when you look at the facts.
My argument was that a mediocre B1G hire will produce very similar results to Tubby, therefor the risk/reward of firing him makes sense. We don't have to hit the lottery to reproduce Tubby results.
Let's take a look at the facts. (I am sure I screwed up a thing or two.. please call me on it)
Total B1G Wins – Last 6 Years
Tubby's entire B1G body of work at Minnesota (46 wins) has been below average (55 wins). Look at Tubby's trend. Then look at Iowa's Trend. Or Michigan's trend. Or Indiana's trend.
Total B1G Wins – Last 3 Years
Let's give him the benefit of the doubt. He needed to "rebuild" the program after Dan Monson left. Let's look at the last 50% of his tenure. Tubby's program is in place. His recruits. Oops. That didn't work. He's actually worse. 9th place. Average over that time period is almost 25 wins. Elite teams are staying elite and other teams are getting better.
Best B1G Season in Last 6 Years
Surely Tubby has snuck in a really good year or two, right? Nope. That didn't work either. Even Penn State sneaks in a 10-win season during Tubby's tenure.
This Year
Ok, 6th year. Program is fully in place. Ranked as high as 8th in the country. Life is good. Oops. Late-season Tubby ball takes over. 8 wins.
NCAA Tourney Wins – Last 6 Years
Michigan St., Ohio State and Wisconsin are in it just about every year. Michigan, Indiana and Iowa are trending upwards. Tubby has 1 win in six years. Doesn't look good when you look at the rest of the conference. Oh, to be Mich St. or Ohio State.
NCAA Tourney Wins – Last 3 Years
How about we just look at the last three years. He actually fairs worse. Indiana and Michigan are trending upwards.
No response from my friends yet.