Wet_Blanket_Guy
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Let me preface this by saying I think Payne will be a beast around the rim by the time he is a SR, an absolute force (like Gary Trent "Shaq of the Mac"). But my question; why does everyone think his progression will be linear? Maybe he caught some teams by surprise last year with the lack of film on him and his overpowering raw power / big body. Now, real B10 coaches will have a year of film on him. We may actually see a dip in production from Payne, but that doesn't mean he isn't improving, it's just that teams are throwing different defensive schemes at him this year.I am factoring in improvement by our sophomores to be. Payne is going to be a beast. Carrington was injured for half the year. JOJ in the minutes he had was more efficient than Battle and shows signs of being a kid that might be coached into being and excellent defender because he is quick and athletic. Every shot JOJ took was worth 1.3 points- every shot Battle took was worth 1 point, actually a little under that.
I think the roster can be very competitive with the following three things happening
- add a guard who is a good rotation player (fits in the top 8)
- at least one of the combo of Ihnen and Fox returns to full health and stays that way
- reasonable to above average improvement by the returning players- which means that the coaches are teaching the right things
BGA - this isn't a direct response to you, I just saw an opening for the question about linear progression and how it aligns to people's expectations when they say things like "Payne will be on the edge of B10 All-conference". Guys on the edge or on all-conference are putting up like 17 & 8 in the C/F positions:
2022-23 1st Team: Edey (22 & 13) / Tracye Jackson-Davis (21 & 11) | 2nd Team: Dickinson (18.5 & 9) / Derrick Walker (14 & 7 *4 asts a game)
2021-22: 1st Team: Cockburn (21 & 11) / Murray (24 & 9) | 2nd Team: Trayce Jackson-Davis (18.3 & 8) / Edey (14.4 & 7.7), Dickinson (18.6 & 8.6)
2020-21: 1st Team: Garza (24 & 9) Cockburn (18 & 10) / Trevion Williams (16 & 9) | 2nd Team: Trayce Jackson-Davis (19.1 & 9), Dickinson (14.1 & 7.4), Franz Wagner (12.5 & 7)
2019-20 1st Team: Garza (24 & 10), Jalen Smith (16 & 11) | 2nd Team Oturu (20 & 11), Xavier Tillman (14 & 10), Kaleb Wesson (14 & 9)
2018-19 1st Team: Bruno Fernando (14 & 11), Ethan Happ (17 & 10) | 2nd Team Jordan: Murphy (14 & 11)
2017-18 2nd Team: Moe Wagner (15 & 7), Ethan Happ (18 & 8)
2016-17: 1st Team: Caleb Swanigan (19 & 13) , Ethan Happ (14 & 9)