Pros and Cons with the new playoff system

If they increase it to 16 there will be 8 first round games. I suspect they’ll be played:
2 Thursday
2 Friday
4 Saturday

I agree with you once it’s beyond 8 first round games there isn’t much place to put them without competing with themselves in exclusive windows.
I have a hard time envisioning the CFP encroaching on an NFL Thursday, though I guess it's possible.

Maybe they just go 14 with the SEC & Big 10 getting byes.

Also possible that they could spread it out over 2 weekends. That would likely force Army-Navy to adjust their game.
 

Not at all. It's more SEC teams just realizing the risk isn't worth the reward. Being #3 in the SEC and moving up to #2 after either #1 or #2 lose in the CC is better than being the losing team in the CC.

Pretty simple.
Especially if SEC #2 already has 2 or 3 losses. Another in the SEC Championship, would likely mean out of the CFP entirely.

Plus get extra rest and avoid a game with injury potentials.
 

I can’t remember the last time I watched a game outside of the gophers. Used be top ten early season matchups would be like mini title games, we’d all tune in to see which team would suffer a major blow to their title chances. Now teams don’t even care about strength of schedule even though a single loss means very little.
100% agree. Big deal on those early season matchups they hyped up. Herbstreit telling people before the USC/LSU game that a loss doesn't hurt your team's chances of getting the bye was all I needed to hear.
 


First polls should be released in week four of the season when some games are played, some conference games are played, and there are some data points.
This is the best thing ever said on GH. I've thought this forever.
 


LSU rode that quality loss in the rankings for SO LONG...
They don't mean a thing if you finish top 2 in your conference. If not in the top two in conference, then it matters because they will forget about it being meaningless and come back to it on selection Sunday.

Stole this from twitter.

Missouri is ranked, lost last week and didn't move a spot in the polls. Their best win is Vandy, and they got blown out by Alabama and TA&M.

Illinois is ranked and their best win is Kansas or Michigan. They got smoked by Oregon, controlled by PSU and lost to an unranked MN team.

Why are these two teams even considered in the top 25? It seems to just support the SEC/B1G teams that beat them that they have a ranked win. Alabama, TA&M, South Carolina, Penn State and Oregon.

They should simply rank the top 12 and first 4 out each week. 25 is too many when you have large conferences and 28 teams are within a game of .500 in conference play.
 

I have a hard time envisioning the CFP encroaching on an NFL Thursday, though I guess it's possible.

Maybe they just go 14 with the SEC & Big 10 getting byes.

Also possible that they could spread it out over 2 weekends. That would likely force Army-Navy to adjust their game.
It sounds like you’re in favor of some teams getting a bye. I am not, mainly because it usually gives the better teams an extra weeks rest to heal and game plan, which is a decided advantage for the better teams. Just go to 16 teams with no byes. If the conference winners have automatic top seeding, that might be a compromise.
 

I have a hard time envisioning the CFP encroaching on an NFL Thursday, though I guess it's possible.

Maybe they just go 14 with the SEC & Big 10 getting byes.

Also possible that they could spread it out over 2 weekends. That would likely force Army-Navy to adjust their game.
There have been games at the same time as nfl during bowl season.
I am sure someone is willing to pay.
I don’t think they’d do Sunday though.


What is going to get a better TV rating? ole miss @ Ohio state or Rams @ 49ers (Thursday Dec 12)
Browns at bengals (Thursday Dec 19)

They both probably get good ratings
In years where it happens to be a bad nfl game that night the college game might be able to compete
 

It sounds like you’re in favor of some teams getting a bye. I am not, mainly because it usually gives the better teams an extra weeks rest to heal and game plan, which is a decided advantage for the better teams. Just go to 16 teams with no byes. If the conference winners have automatic top seeding, that might be a compromise.
I like the Byes to give more reward and meaning to the regular season in general and the Conference Championships specifically. Without them, college football turns more like basketball where the regular season is pretty much devoid of intrigue.

The better teams should have an advantage. They proved it in the regular season, they were better and won their Conferences, with regards to the Big 10 & SEC Champs.
 
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There have been games at the same time as nfl during bowl season.
Games (even Group of 6 Bowls) sure, but Playoffs I am sure they are looking for exclusivity.

I am sure someone is willing to pay.
Pay something, sure, but enough to warrant the dollars required to expand the field, knowing they have to go head to head with the NFL or overlap broadcast windows?

What is going to get a better TV rating? ole miss @ Ohio state or Rams @ 49ers (Thursday Dec 12)
Browns at bengals (Thursday Dec 19)

They both probably get good ratings
In years where it happens to be a bad nfl game that night the college game might be able to compete

Ratings would be tough to measure with the NFL Sunday package on Prime. Starting this year too, if the NFL/Prime deem it to be a poor matchup, they can flex out to something more attractive.

Compete sure, but for the type of money that it would presumably take to precure such rights, the Broadcast/Streamer I wouldn't think just wants to compete. They want a full on knock out number of viewers and demographic.

The major players (CBS, FOX, NBC & ABC-ESPN) also have deals with the NFL. I think they would tread lightly on anything that devalues that inventory and upsets "the shield" (Goodell & friends).


Having said all that, if the dollars work out. It would happen. Might be games on a Tuesday or Wednesday for all we know, for a week straight CFP games.
 

In something that was obviously predictable, several SEC Coaches are signaling that they would probably be better off if their team does NOT make it to the SEC Title Game in the current system, which includes a BYE.

I think it's unlikely a SEC championship game loser will be left out. The SEC is largely to blame for this by only playing 8 conference games. If they play 9 like everyone else, they wouldn't be as jumbled up in the top half. They'd have less 2 loss teams.
 

I think it's unlikely a SEC championship game loser will be left out. The SEC is largely to blame for this by only playing 8 conference games. If they play 9 like everyone else, they wouldn't be as jumbled up in the top half. They'd have less 2 loss teams.
Playing schedules without round robins built within them is really what’s to blame for all of this.

In a 16 team league with an 8 game conference schedule…there should be two sets of 8 teams that all play each other and then a random from another 8.
You don’t have to call them divisions.
You don’t have to have one from each group in the title game.
You can change the two groups of 8 every year. But it’s stupid to not have round robins within a schedule.
 

Playing schedules without round robins built within them is really what’s to blame for all of this.

In a 16 team league with an 8 game conference schedule…there should be two sets of 8 teams that all play each other and then a random from another 8.
You don’t have to call them divisions.
You don’t have to have one from each group in the title game.
You can change the two groups of 8 every year. But it’s stupid to not have round robins within a schedule.
And the B1G could do 9 teams + 1 game for 9 games.
 



i do. undefeated is undefeated is undefeated. PSUs record is inflated by already playing OSU, who they lost to. yes it will get sorted out but focusing on SOS which is almost entirely weighted by that one opponent doesn't make sense. Undefeateds at this point in the year from the same conference (again emphasis from the same conference, not saying a random G5 is equivalent in this circumstance) should be viewed in that tier and then once you've lost, the comparisons can balance out amongst those who have also lost. It's why I also don't like OSU ahead of Indy. Winning your games should mean something. Why are we punishing Indiana for the order of their schedule and how the B10 schedule makers put things together?

In reality none of these matter. They are only conversation pieces. But its the same stupid shit like the committee listing Miami as the ACC bye when they aren't even leading the conference. Start from that reference point given it leads to a drastically different bracket given you're putting SMU out right now for losing to the B12 AQ (in the second game of the year prior to them settling their QB situation) and putting that loss as worse than Miami's to GT who is 6-4. Joy of that we always go with the "eye test" over everything else and then use the metrics to support what we think our eyes tell us while ignoring the rest.
Not to argue but Penn State has a tougher schedule than Indiana without the OSU game by a decent margin.
 

Playing schedules without round robins built within them is really what’s to blame for all of this.

In a 16 team league with an 8 game conference schedule…there should be two sets of 8 teams that all play each other and then a random from another 8.
You don’t have to call them divisions.
You don’t have to have one from each group in the title game.
You can change the two groups of 8 every year. But it’s stupid to not have round robins within a schedule.
I was just looking at the remaining schedule of the top 6 teams in the SEC. There's only one game between them (Texas vs Texas A&M) the rest of the way. There's a really good shot all of those 6 teams end with 2 or fewer losses.

You're not wrong, but playing one more conference game at least increases the chances of more games between top teams. Like TN, they beat Alabama. Their next best conference win is against Florida. Texas A&M hasn't beaten a SEC team that has a winning record in conference.
 

I was just looking at the remaining schedule of the top 6 teams in the SEC. There's only one game between them (Texas vs Texas A&M) the rest of the way. There's a really good shot all of those 6 teams end with 2 or fewer losses.

You're not wrong, but playing one more conference game at least increases the chances of more games between top teams. Like TN, they beat Alabama. Their next best conference win is against Florida. Texas A&M hasn't beaten a SEC team that has a winning record in conference.
Yeah. But the round robin guarantees it.

If Texas plays another game Vs a conference opponent it could easily be against auburn as it could be one of those top 5

Playing an extra game without a round robin increases schedule difficulty variability. It doesn’t decrease it (see Indiana’s schedule vs Ohio state’s)
 

Yeah. But the round robin guarantees it.

If Texas plays another game Vs a conference opponent it could easily be against auburn as it could be one of those top 5

Playing an extra game without a round robin increases schedule difficulty variability. It doesn’t decrease it (see Indiana’s schedule vs Ohio state’s)
The less conference games, the less losses that occur. Of course that could be Texas' additional game. But the chances are pretty good that there are less <2 loss teams in the SEC with one more conference game.

I disagree with bolded. The closer you get to playing every team, the less variability. Playing 9 doesn't prevent variability (like we're seeing with Indiana vs OSU) but it decreases the chances of large differences in schedule strength at least a little bit.

Even under the round robin scenario, it's possible 5 of the top 6 teams in a conference end up being in one group.
 



The SEC is largely to blame for this by only playing 8 conference games. If they play 9 like everyone else, they wouldn't be as jumbled up in the top half. They'd have less 2 loss teams.
Not sure I follow the math here. If they remove one of the cupcakes, where all SEC teams are likely to go a combined 16-0, and replace it with another conference game, where the SEC would collectively go 8-8, and that would make things LESS jumbled?
 

Con is that things are delayed. Example is that the Rose bowl won't know one of the teams coming until 10/11 days before the game.

Pro/Con is that the teams with the byes will have a two week break between games.
 

Not sure I follow the math here. If they remove one of the cupcakes, where all SEC teams are likely to go a combined 16-0, and replace it with another conference game, where the SEC would collectively go 8-8, and that would make things LESS jumbled?
Not as many teams bunched together at the top with a chance to make the playoffs. It would be more jumbled in the middle more than likely like the Big Ten is. The less conference games, the less games involving two of the top teams.

The issue with the SEC this year is they will end with a lot of teams with 2 or fewer losses and which not a lot of games have been played between those teams. Of the 6 teams right now with 2 or fewer losses in the SEC (an IMO, the teams with a chance to make the playoffs), there will have been only 6 total games between those teams at the end of the season.
 

The less conference games, the less losses that occur. Of course that could be Texas' additional game. But the chances are pretty good that there are less <2 loss teams in the SEC with one more conference game.

I disagree with bolded. The closer you get to playing every team, the less variability. Playing 9 doesn't prevent variability (like we're seeing with Indiana vs OSU) but it decreases the chances of large differences in schedule strength at least a little bit.

Even under the round robin scenario, it's possible 5 of the top 6 teams in a conference end up being in one group.
If you add one more game for everyone and all the teams with a tough schedule draw another tough game and all the teams with an easy schedule an easy game…the spread is bigger

You’re correct that the average spread will be smaller. But the outliers will become more extreme, is more what I was saying.

The possibility of a variance is less but how extreme the discrepancy could be is larger.
 

they're all biased. SOR also is biased though understandably less so given it incorporates performance on the field (efficiency metrics, etc), however they also incorporate 4 seasons of prior results (citing that Vegas does this in making their lines), returning starters/coaches, recruiting class rankings. In reality, all of these sets of data are incomplete until the season ends. Indiana's metrics suck right now because their opponents have been mediocre thus far but they've obliterated many of them so their efficiency is good and their game control is remarkably good (#2). Which one do you weight more? Getting on some soapbox now prior to all the results coming in is going to be inherently flawed as the data is incomplete. Things like FPI are probably pretty damn accurate within a conference because you have vastly more data amongst those teams to compared H2H in terms of efficiencies and control. However the SEC only has 2 teams outside the top 36 in FPI. The Big Ten has 7 outside the top 50. Yet LSU is #20 and USC is #54 in spite of that H2H result because the conferences only played 3 times this year (Bama shit kicking WI and TX stomping MI, both of whom are in the doldrums of B10 this year as we all know) and so we've put a ton of stock in that we think the SEC is a better conference this year.

Once the data is complete, it becomes easier and easier, but citing SOR like its a way better metric given it places WI ahead of USC despite losing the H2H by 3 scores or FPI which puts USC at 16 like that wouldn't results an severe outliers as well is an issue (using FPI as the predictor of game results, which is what ESPN touts it for, would've predicted 6 correctly and 4 incorrectly for USC based on current rankings).

The reason SOS is used and cited is... that's directly what the CFP committee says is criteria #1 when deciding amongst "comparable teams".

PRINCIPLES

The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

The bigger issue is how you decide who's comparable and in CFB where there are very few big conference H2Hs it's next to impossible to really lay them out against each other
 


There have been games at the same time as nfl during bowl season.
I am sure someone is willing to pay.
I don’t think they’d do Sunday though.


What is going to get a better TV rating? ole miss @ Ohio state or Rams @ 49ers (Thursday Dec 12)
Browns at bengals (Thursday Dec 19)

They both probably get good ratings
In years where it happens to be a bad nfl game that night the college game might be able to compete
Turns out the NFL will be heading to head this year with the CFP.

NFL has 2 games on Saturday afternoon, 12/21, Chiefs-Texans then Steelers-Ravens. These will be in direct competition with 2 CFP games which will actually be on Turner.

We will see how it plays out.

Mighty noble of the NFL to throw a bone to their free development system and let them have Saturday prime time to themselves.
 
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So this year is revealing a potential big flaw in the system. As it stands right now, the #5 seed will have an easier game in the second round than the #1 seed (assuming the #5 seed wins the first game). Right now, Ohio St would play Arizona St and then Boise St. Oregon would have to face the winner of ND and TN. I still think the bye is an advantage but not by a lot in a scenario like this.

An easy change would be to reseed 1-8 after the first round games.
 

This is the best thing ever said on GH. I've thought this forever.
The CFP and NCAA can’t do anything to keep the AP from releasing their (bullshit) polls. It’s a free country. People are just suckers for paying attention to it and giving it any credibility.
 

Turns out the NFL will be heading to head this year with the CFP.

NFL has 2 games on Saturday afternoon, 12/21, Chiefs-Texans then Steelers-Ravens. These will be in direct competition with 2 CFP games which will actually be on Turner.

We will see how it plays out.
The NFL is just going to eat the CFP’s lunch.

This may sound crazy, but it is 100% true and there is no valid argument against it:

College football needs to START their season in Mid-August and END the regular season before Thanksgiving. It makes no sense to continue the war against the NFL by creeping further and further into January when the sports calendar in August is wide open (and it is hyper-competitive in January).
 

The NFL is just going to eat the CFP’s lunch.

This may sound crazy, but it is 100% true and there is no valid argument against it:

College football needs to START their season in Mid-August and END the regular season before Thanksgiving. It makes no sense to continue the war against the NFL by creeping further and further into January when the sports calendar in August is wide open (and it is hyper-competitive in January).
I don't think starting the season in Mid-August is the answer either. TV ratings in general suck that time of year, plus going head to head with NFL Exhibitions is also a draw back.

Also too hot in the majority of country.

College football gets Labor Day weekend all to themselves currently, that's as best as they can do. It's not exactly a ratings bonanza that weekend either.

There's a reason the NFL and their partners don't play that early. Just not a draw. They don't even play pre-season games.
 




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