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Ogee can correct me if I heard this incorrectly but I believe the blonde smokeshow on ESPN Bets said that even the best sports bettors in Vegas only win 55% of the time on average.

If true, I feel marginally better about all the poor decisions I make every week in Fantasy.
 

Slim Tubby said:
Ogee can correct me if I heard this incorrectly but I believe the blonde smokeshow on ESPN Bets said that even the best sports bettors in Vegas only win 55% of the time on average.

If true, I feel marginally better about all the poor decisions I make every week in Fantasy.
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That's the word, that even the best bettors, on a good year, are in the mid-high 50's for percent winning.

And don't, please don't, disrespect Taylor Mathis by tying her to the "worldwide leader"; she's so much better than working for that unmitigated grease fire of a network.

And I got Gophers and Northwestern games both UNDER today so at Halftime of both games, I'm a little nervous.... I also bet a small wager on Illinois, just because Bielema just owns Minnesota it seems. Made me feel dirty, but when I saw Gophers favored on the road against Fat Bert, I had to put some action on Illinois. I'd be glad to lose, especially if the game runs Under (45.5)!
 


Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
That's the word, that even the best bettors, on a good year, are in the mid-high 50's for percent winning.

And don't, please don't, disrespect Taylor Mathis by tying her to the "worldwide leader"; she's so much better than working for that unmitigated grease fire of a network.

And I got Gophers and Northwestern games both UNDER today so at Halftime of both games, I'm a little nervous.... I also bet a small wager on Illinois, just because Bielema just owns Minnesota it seems. Made me feel dirty, but when I saw Gophers favored on the road against Fat Bert, I had to put some action on Illinois. I'd be glad to lose, especially if the game runs Under (45.5)!
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I would never disrespect Taylor and her two (2) friends, and the only show I watch on ESPN is their Sunday morning Fantasy Football show.

They have Erin Dolan as a gambling expert come on once in a while to talk about prop bets and how weather may effect some games/odds.

She nice, too:

1730570859920.jpeg
 

* Goff @GB in the rain/wind

*Carr coming back from injury @CAR

Am I crazy for leaning towards Carr knowing Kamara should eat all day against that porous CAR run defense?
 


Slim Tubby said:
* Goff @GB in the rain/wind

*Carr coming back from injury @CAR

Am I crazy for leaning towards Carr knowing Kamara should eat all day against that porous CAR run defense?
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Carolina is bad. Like not making the CFP bad. But I hate the number of -7.5 on the Saints; susceptible to the backdoor cover.

I'd like to think the Lions can fall into that group of teams that are indoor teams that don't play well outdoors, especially later in the season, but it's hard to say. Detroit is just really really good, I hate to say it. They could very well be the best team in football right now.

One of the first things I learned/read when I moved to Nevada about NFL gambling (I didn't gamble then but found it interesting) is that Home underdogs in November/December cover the spread at an absolutely remarkable rate (like 70-80%?) and Win outright over 50% of the time.

So later in the year, be very very wary of the Road favorite.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
Carolina is bad. Like not making the CFP bad. But I hate the number of -7.5 on the Saints; susceptible to the backdoor cover.

I'd like to think the Lions can fall into that group of teams that are indoor teams that don't play well outdoors, especially later in the season, but it's hard to say. Detroit is just really really good, I hate to say it. They could very well be the best team in football right now.

One of the first things I learned/read when I moved to Nevada about NFL gambling (I didn't gamble then but found it interesting) is that Home underdogs in November/December cover the spread at an absolutely remarkable rate (like 70-80%?) and Win outright over 50% of the time.

So later in the year, be very very wary of the Road favorite.
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How about which QB you would start in Fantasy this week? 😉
 

Haha. Through a little bit of luck some smarter moves I crawled back to four and four and finally got both AJ Brown and Nacua back, plus with two a back Achane should start picking up points again.
So of course Brown promptly gets re-injured and Nacua gets ejected. Oof
 

Frink said:
Haha. Through a little bit of luck some smarter moves I crawled back to four and four and finally got both AJ Brown and Nacua back, plus with two a back Achane should start picking up points again.
So of course Brown promptly gets re-injured and Nacua gets ejected. Oof
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I finally had a really good week and will still probably lose because Olave got hurt again.
 



I'm setting myself up for a loss in the first round of playoffs. I'm currently 8-0-1 after Kelce and Hopkins got me the win last night
 

TRF Guy said:
I'm setting myself up for a loss in the first round of playoffs. I'm currently 8-0-1 after Kelce and Hopkins got me the win last night
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Just make it to the Playoffs...at that point, almost every roster is capable of getting hot for 2-3 weeks.

You enjoyed yourself a lot last night, for sure!
 

Slim Tubby said:
Just make it to the Playoffs...at that point, almost every roster is capable of getting hot for 2-3 weeks.

You enjoyed yourself a lot last night, for sure!
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I had hockey practice and I keep my phone in coaches room. So yes I was pleasantly surprised for sure when I looked at the update
 




Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
Mother f*cking Seattle....

I was going to pick Chicago (or Washington, or Jax, or even Denver, who ALL won) but when I looked at the numbers and thought that there actually wouldn't be that many people in my pool picking Seattle, because a lot must have picked them in Week 1, I changed to Seattle.

And to top it off, Seattle ended up being the most picked team in my pool anyway.

Another bloodbath in Circa Survivor, down to an incredible 221 entries I think, out of the original 14,266 after just 5 weeks.

I think I'll do it again next year, it was fun and I enjoyed the strategy behind it and the data analysis and information gathering.

My only consolation was that my Cardinals knocked off the 49ers and eliminated the 2nd most people in the pool.
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Circa Survivor moves on and after some mellow weeks, another boatload of people eliminated this week

Gb_YXCrakAA9V_t.jpg

I know the Carolina Panthers are terrible, but who in the world bets their Survivor life on Daniel Jones and the NY Giants? 30 more entries eliminated right there yesterday, along with another 14 knocked out when the Bears dumped against the Patriots (and 2 ousted with the Falcons losing).

That means the field has just 105 entries left through Week 10. Wow.
 

Ye Gods what a night for Saquon Barkley! 255 yards and two touchdowns rushing plus 47 yd in receiving.
 

I started out 8-0-1 and now 8-4-1 😡
 


I've been in this league close to 25 years. I don't ever recall getting the first overall pick, but I got it this year. Backed up my McCaffery pick with Travis Etienne at the end of round 2. And somehow, I'm in the playoffs if I win this week.
The bad thing is I'm commish. Previous years, we'd used the last two playoff spaces for the two highest scoring teams, regardless of record. I chose to do away with that rule because we have 3 new people in the league, so I wanted to dummy things down as much possible. Now it looks fishy if I make the playoffs (I'm like 4th from last in total points).
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
I've been in this league close to 25 years. I don't ever recall getting the first overall pick, but I got it this year. Backed up my McCaffery pick with Travis Etienne at the end of round 2. And somehow, I'm in the playoffs if I win this week.
The bad thing is I'm commish. Previous years, we'd used the last two playoff spaces for the two highest scoring teams, regardless of record. I chose to do away with that rule because we have 3 new people in the league, so I wanted to dummy things down as much possible. Now it looks fishy if I make the playoffs (I'm like 4th from last in total points).
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I was in the opposite situation last year. I lost 3 or 4 weeks where I had the second most points that week but always played the team with the most. I think I finished with the second most points scored overall and barely made it into the playoffs as a 6 seed.

This year we added a second game each week against the median score and that has helped. I have CMC and Olave that have killed me. I'm right where I belong in the standings.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I was in the opposite situation last year. I lost 3 or 4 weeks where I had the second most points that week but always played the team with the most. I think I finished with the second most points scored overall and barely made it into the playoffs as a 6 seed.

This year we added a second game each week against the median score and that has helped. I have CMC and Olave that have killed me. I'm right where I belong in the standings.
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Median score deal sounds interesting. On one hand, I get it where you just play the schedule you're dealt, and you go by your record. Luck should play a part in the results. But on the other hand, you want some amount of skill to be reflected as well.
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
Median score deal sounds interesting. On one hand, I get it where you just play the schedule you're dealt, and you go by your record. Luck should play a part in the results. But on the other hand, you want some amount of skill to be reflected as well.
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Yeah I think it's a good mix. There's still some luck involved for sure.
 



Breakin' The Plane said:
I've been in this league close to 25 years. I don't ever recall getting the first overall pick, but I got it this year. Backed up my McCaffery pick with Travis Etienne at the end of round 2. And somehow, I'm in the playoffs if I win this week.
The bad thing is I'm commish. Previous years, we'd used the last two playoff spaces for the two highest scoring teams, regardless of record. I chose to do away with that rule because we have 3 new people in the league, so I wanted to dummy things down as much possible. Now it looks fishy if I make the playoffs (I'm like 4th from last in total points).
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Not fishy at all assuming every Owner knew the updated rules prior to the start of the season.

In my Dynasty League, we go with both Division winners and the remaining two (2) teams with the highest Total Points Scored getting the other Playoff spots.

I'm tied for the worst record (4-9) in that league but 2nd in total points and 145 ahead of the guy in 3rd. It's been a very strange year for me, one where GII's median scoring would better reflect my roster.

If it wasn't for Fantasy sports, I'd probably be breaking kneecaps for Ogee out in Vegas.
 

I had Flowers and Stevenson on a bye this week while CMC, Olave, Pickens and Kincaid are all hurt. Bucky Irving has been good however he also got hurt early in the game today. Guerendo had a great game but also left early with an injury.
 

I have scored 157 points this week thus far and yet trailing by 13 points in my Dynasty Semifinals going into tonight's games. He's done and I have JJ going for the Vikings.

Normally, I'd feel good about my chances but it's been a crazy, crazy year in Fantasy with all the injuries.
 

This has never happened to me. All 3 of my goalies had shutouts tonight

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