Fantasy Sports Talk

[Slim Tubby]

Ogee can correct me if I heard this incorrectly but I believe the blonde smokeshow on ESPN Bets said that even the best sports bettors in Vegas only win 55% of the time on average.

If true, I feel marginally better about all the poor decisions I make every week in Fantasy.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Ogee can correct me if I heard this incorrectly but I believe the blonde smokeshow on ESPN Bets said that even the best sports bettors in Vegas only win 55% of the time on average.

If true, I feel marginally better about all the poor decisions I make every week in Fantasy.

That's the word, that even the best bettors, on a good year, are in the mid-high 50's for percent winning.

And don't, please don't, disrespect Taylor Mathis by tying her to the "worldwide leader"; she's so much better than working for that unmitigated grease fire of a network.

And I got Gophers and Northwestern games both UNDER today so at Halftime of both games, I'm a little nervous.... I also bet a small wager on Illinois, just because Bielema just owns Minnesota it seems. Made me feel dirty, but when I saw Gophers favored on the road against Fat Bert, I had to put some action on Illinois. I'd be glad to lose, especially if the game runs Under (45.5)!

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

 

[Slim Tubby]

That's the word, that even the best bettors, on a good year, are in the mid-high 50's for percent winning.

And don't, please don't, disrespect Taylor Mathis by tying her to the "worldwide leader"; she's so much better than working for that unmitigated grease fire of a network.

And I got Gophers and Northwestern games both UNDER today so at Halftime of both games, I'm a little nervous.... I also bet a small wager on Illinois, just because Bielema just owns Minnesota it seems. Made me feel dirty, but when I saw Gophers favored on the road against Fat Bert, I had to put some action on Illinois. I'd be glad to lose, especially if the game runs Under (45.5)!

I would never disrespect Taylor and her two (2) friends, and the only show I watch on ESPN is their Sunday morning Fantasy Football show.

They have Erin Dolan as a gambling expert come on once in a while to talk about prop bets and how weather may effect some games/odds.

She nice, too:

 

[Slim Tubby]

* Goff @GB in the rain/wind

*Carr coming back from injury @CAR

Am I crazy for leaning towards Carr knowing Kamara should eat all day against that porous CAR run defense?

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

* Goff @GB in the rain/wind

*Carr coming back from injury @CAR

Am I crazy for leaning towards Carr knowing Kamara should eat all day against that porous CAR run defense?

Carolina is bad. Like not making the CFP bad. But I hate the number of -7.5 on the Saints; susceptible to the backdoor cover.

I'd like to think the Lions can fall into that group of teams that are indoor teams that don't play well outdoors, especially later in the season, but it's hard to say. Detroit is just really really good, I hate to say it. They could very well be the best team in football right now.

One of the first things I learned/read when I moved to Nevada about NFL gambling (I didn't gamble then but found it interesting) is that Home underdogs in November/December cover the spread at an absolutely remarkable rate (like 70-80%?) and Win outright over 50% of the time.

So later in the year, be very very wary of the Road favorite.

 

[Slim Tubby]

Carolina is bad. Like not making the CFP bad. But I hate the number of -7.5 on the Saints; susceptible to the backdoor cover.

I'd like to think the Lions can fall into that group of teams that are indoor teams that don't play well outdoors, especially later in the season, but it's hard to say. Detroit is just really really good, I hate to say it. They could very well be the best team in football right now.

One of the first things I learned/read when I moved to Nevada about NFL gambling (I didn't gamble then but found it interesting) is that Home underdogs in November/December cover the spread at an absolutely remarkable rate (like 70-80%?) and Win outright over 50% of the time.

So later in the year, be very very wary of the Road favorite.

How about which QB you would start in Fantasy this week?

 

[Frink]

Haha. Through a little bit of luck some smarter moves I crawled back to four and four and finally got both AJ Brown and Nacua back, plus with two a back Achane should start picking up points again.
So of course Brown promptly gets re-injured and Nacua gets ejected. Oof

 

[GophersInIowa]

Haha. Through a little bit of luck some smarter moves I crawled back to four and four and finally got both AJ Brown and Nacua back, plus with two a back Achane should start picking up points again.
So of course Brown promptly gets re-injured and Nacua gets ejected. Oof

I finally had a really good week and will still probably lose because Olave got hurt again.

 

[TRF Guy]

I'm setting myself up for a loss in the first round of playoffs. I'm currently 8-0-1 after Kelce and Hopkins got me the win last night

 

[Slim Tubby]

I'm setting myself up for a loss in the first round of playoffs. I'm currently 8-0-1 after Kelce and Hopkins got me the win last night

Just make it to the Playoffs...at that point, almost every roster is capable of getting hot for 2-3 weeks.

You enjoyed yourself a lot last night, for sure!

 

[TRF Guy]

Just make it to the Playoffs...at that point, almost every roster is capable of getting hot for 2-3 weeks.

You enjoyed yourself a lot last night, for sure!

I had hockey practice and I keep my phone in coaches room. So yes I was pleasantly surprised for sure when I looked at the update

 

[GophersInIowa]

Hell yeah

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Mother f*cking Seattle....

I was going to pick Chicago (or Washington, or Jax, or even Denver, who ALL won) but when I looked at the numbers and thought that there actually wouldn't be that many people in my pool picking Seattle, because a lot must have picked them in Week 1, I changed to Seattle.

And to top it off, Seattle ended up being the most picked team in my pool anyway.

Another bloodbath in Circa Survivor, down to an incredible 221 entries I think, out of the original 14,266 after just 5 weeks.

I think I'll do it again next year, it was fun and I enjoyed the strategy behind it and the data analysis and information gathering.

My only consolation was that my Cardinals knocked off the 49ers and eliminated the 2nd most people in the pool.

Circa Survivor moves on and after some mellow weeks, another boatload of people eliminated this week



I know the Carolina Panthers are terrible, but who in the world bets their Survivor life on Daniel Jones and the NY Giants? 30 more entries eliminated right there yesterday, along with another 14 knocked out when the Bears dumped against the Patriots (and 2 ousted with the Falcons losing).

That means the field has just 105 entries left through Week 10. Wow.