Fantasy Sports Talk

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GopherWeatherGuy said:
Are you in this league with random people or do you know them? I don't think most of my friends who play fantasy would be up for this but I would definitely give it a shot someday.
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The first couple of years, I just joined a "Public" league through the Guillotine website. They had leagues with Entry Fees that ranged from $20.00 - $500.00 per team.

Last year, we scrounged up 19 teams from two (2) of our standard leagues which was great for trash talking and trades.

The really cool thing is that after 8-9 teams have been bounced, they can all form another Guillotine league for the last half of the year so you still get to play a majority of the season.
 

Gophers1992 said:
Super fun, only downside is, like you said it can be over fast. General rule is a larger group means more “risk” early on and saving your strong teams for later, for obvious reasons.
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How's this for risk? I hate going the "homer" route, but I'm really strongly leaning towards picking the Vikings in Week 1 (for one entry; I have more than one entry in this pool).

Yes, I'm banking a lot on Darnold not coughing up the football a bunch of times but I think KOC puts him in a great position and I think the Giants will be one of the worst teams in football this year. I think Flores makes life absolutely miserable for Daniel Jones and with a lot of new faces on defense, I suspect Flores is going to throw some things at Jones that they won't be expecting at all; the new personnel like Greenard, Van Ginkel, Cashman, and even Turner are going to give Flores the chance to be even more creative than normal.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
How's this for risk? I hate going the "homer" route, but I'm really strongly leaning towards picking the Vikings in Week 1 (for one entry; I have more than one entry in this pool).

Yes, I'm banking a lot on Darnold not coughing up the football a bunch of times but I think KOC puts him in a great position and I think the Giants will be one of the worst teams in football this year. I think Flores makes life absolutely miserable for Daniel Jones and with a lot of new faces on defense, I suspect Flores is going to throw some things at Jones that they won't be expecting at all; the new personnel like Greenard, Van Ginkel, Cashman, and even Turner are going to give Flores the chance to be even more creative than normal.
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I won't pretend to have done all the analysis, but this is likely one of the Vikings' easier games and they aren't going to be one of the stronger teams in the league, so I like the pick.
 

In my main fantasy league we continue to do an auction draft. I really enjoy it. It takes a lot longer but it's a lot more fun. I didn't plan on it but ended up getting McCaffrey.

I've been doing this league since I was in like 5th or 6th grade with some friends. We started it before it was all done through yahoo, ESPN, etc. Remember every Sunday morning writing my starting lineup on a slip of paper and running it over to my friend's house. His older brother would keep track of points and standings.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
How's this for risk? I hate going the "homer" route, but I'm really strongly leaning towards picking the Vikings in Week 1 (for one entry; I have more than one entry in this pool).

Yes, I'm banking a lot on Darnold not coughing up the football a bunch of times but I think KOC puts him in a great position and I think the Giants will be one of the worst teams in football this year. I think Flores makes life absolutely miserable for Daniel Jones and with a lot of new faces on defense, I suspect Flores is going to throw some things at Jones that they won't be expecting at all; the new personnel like Greenard, Van Ginkel, Cashman, and even Turner are going to give Flores the chance to be even more creative than normal.
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I like your reasoning but need to see Darnold in a real game before using the Vikings.

Not wanting to use a Top 15 team this early, I went with CHI. Their home crowd will be crazy for the first game of the Caleb/Odunze era. I'll be surprised if TEN scores more than 13 points in the game.
 


Slim Tubby said:
I like your reasoning but need to see Darnold in a real game before using the Vikings.

Not wanting to use a Top 15 team this early, I went with CHI. Their home crowd will be crazy for the first game of the Caleb/Odunze era. I'll be surprised if TEN scores more than 13 points in the game.
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I don't HATE the Chicago pick, but that's putting a lot on a rookie QB that's never played a down. I think I heard a stat that rookie QBs starting Game 1 of their rookie season are 1-15.

Williams' preseason was a massive mirage; people wanted to focus on some of the highlight reel plays he made but he failed to move the ball effectively against some backup defenses.

I think Chicago wins, Tennessee is still a bad team, but I think Chicago finishes in last place in the North this season.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I won't pretend to have done all the analysis, but this is likely one of the Vikings' easier games and they aren't going to be one of the stronger teams in the league, so I like the pick.
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I'm going with a kind of personalized hybrid approach that involves some analytical data, Future Value, Expected Value, Ownership %, et al but puts a HIGH premium on the QB, with the HC as kind of a tiebreaker. I'm basically going to short, or go against the shit QBs, especially with shit HC's, all year, particularly ones with a high percentage chance to lose.

Buffalo and Detroit have the 4th and 5th highest chances/percentages to win in Week 1, 68% and 66%; but betting your season against Kyler Murray and/or Stafford/McVay respectively? No thanks.

Rookie QBs like Williams, Jayden Daniels and Nix scare me this early in the season, both good and bad. I'll stay away until I see more information. Everyone loves Seattle against Denver but Sean Payton with Nix, going against a new HC in Seattle and Geno Smith who was dinged up most of training camp? I can't go that route. I'm half-tempted to put a small bet on Denver to win on the M/L.

I like New Orleans and David Carr against Carolina in Week 1. Everyone's obvious pick is Cincinnati and if I'll pick them in 1 of my entries but only because I have multiple entries. I like the Chargers because the Raiders are shit, but not thrilled that SoFi will be more of a home game for the Raiders than it is the Chargers; the Raiders fans always fill that place.

Probably going with Saints, Bengals, and Vikings; and I've thought about ponying up for a 4th entry but not sure yet. With a 4th entry, I'd lean Chargers.
 

Need everyone's advice. Who do I start as my 2nd RB this week?

- Zamir White @LAC
- Rhamondre Stevenson @CIN
- Javonte Williams @SEA

I also have Ekeler and Warren. Hoping one of these guys has a better than expected year.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Need everyone's advice. Who do I start as my 2nd RB this week?

- Zamir White @LAC
- Rhamondre Stevenson @CIN
- Javonte Williams @SEA

I also have Ekeler and Warren. Hoping one of these guys has a better than expected year.
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My gut says White but I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
 



Curious if you guys see Isaiah Likely as a high-end TE1 this year or if last night was more of an exception? He went undrafted in a lot of leagues and should be a top free-agent target for many.
 


Gophers1992 said:
Curious if you guys see Isaiah Likely as a high-end TE1 this year or if last night was more of an exception? He went undrafted in a lot of leagues and should be a top free-agent target for many.
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I didn't even have him on my radar for the draft. I personally wouldn't bank on him being a TE1 right now but could be a nice option as TE2 for now.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Need everyone's advice. Who do I start as my 2nd RB this week?

- Zamir White @LAC
- Rhamondre Stevenson @CIN
- Javonte Williams @SEA

I also have Ekeler and Warren. Hoping one of these guys has a better than expected year.
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Stevenson (Gibson) and Williams (McLaughlin) both have legitimate 3rd down backs that will take a ton of snaps away.

This will especially be true if their teams are trailing which I expect to happen considering the match-ups against tough teams on the road. Justice Hill completely devalued Derrick Henry last night as an example.

White should have a much higher usage rate, stays in on most passing downs and proved last year he can produce as a "bell cow" RB. He would be my choice.

It's a good problem to have for your RB2, though. I'm really high on Williams now that he's two (2) years removed from his ACL surgery. NE just signed Rhamondre to a 4-year deal so maybe they'll finally commit to him with Belichek gone, too.
 



Gophers1992 said:
Curious if you guys see Isaiah Likely as a high-end TE1 this year or if last night was more of an exception? He went undrafted in a lot of leagues and should be a top free-agent target for many.
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Oof...tough to call after one (1) game but is it really a small sample size? Likely was great last year after Andrews went down and we know three (3) things about him for sure:

1. He played more snaps than Andrews and shares the field with him (Think Aaron Hernandez and Gronk scenario).

2. They lined him up at WR on 45% of his total snaps and his Target Share is crazy good. Flowers is his only real competition.

3. Jackson has trust and a connection with him, especially down the field on broken plays.

Andrews looks old to me. If I had to choose one (1) for the rest of the season, I'd roll the dice on Likely myself. He could easily finIsh as a Top 6 TE this year IMO.
 

Slim Tubby said:
Stevenson (Gibson) and Williams (McLaughlin) both have legitimate 3rd down backs that will take a ton of snaps away.

This will especially be true if their teams are trailing which I expect to happen considering the match-ups against tough teams on the road. Justice Hill completely devalued Derrick Henry last night as an example.

White should have a much higher usage rate, stays in on most passing downs and proved last year he can produce as a "bell cow" RB. He would be my choice.

It's a good problem to have for your RB2, though. I'm really high on Williams now that he's two (2) years removed from his ACL surgery. NE just signed Rhamondre to a 4-year deal so maybe they'll finally commit to him with Belichek gone, too.
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Yeah I went with a bunch of guys that have the potential to be pretty good and am hoping at least one has a breakout season. I got McCaffrey as my RB1 and after the first 5-10 RBs, it's such a crapshoot.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Yeah I went with a bunch of guys that have the potential to be pretty good and am hoping at least one has a breakout season. I got McCaffrey as my RB1 and after the first 5-10 RBs, it's such a crapshoot.
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I'm having to choose between Javonte, Rhamondre and Mostert in one (1) of my leagues. Thoughts?
 

Slim Tubby said:
I'm having to choose between Javonte, Rhamondre and Mostert in one (1) of my leagues. Thoughts?
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It would be between Javonte and Rhamondre IMO. Both play against defenses that were bad against the run last year. Probably a coin flip honestly. Go with your gut. Javonte probably has the better overall potential?
 

GophersInIowa said:
It would be between Javonte and Rhamondre IMO. Both play against defenses that were bad against the run last year. Probably a coin flip honestly. Go with your gut. Javonte probably has the better overall potential?
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Right now, I've got it:

Mostert
Javonte
Rhamondre

I know what I'm getting from Raheem and that game should be high-scoring. The QB play of DEN and NE cause me concern that they might really struggle to gain yardage and score TDs.

A coin flip for sure. 😖
 

GophersInIowa said:
In my main fantasy league we continue to do an auction draft. I really enjoy it. It takes a lot longer but it's a lot more fun. I didn't plan on it but ended up getting McCaffrey.

I've been doing this league since I was in like 5th or 6th grade with some friends. We started it before it was all done through yahoo, ESPN, etc. Remember every Sunday morning writing my starting lineup on a slip of paper and running it over to my friend's house. His older brother would keep track of points and standings.
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I started sometime around 92, I think. The local convenience store sold a fantasy football scorebook that I used to keep track. It was just 4 of us at first, we just played for the most total points all year. It really sucked when USA Today went to print before MNF was over, then I'd have to wait until Wednesday morning to finalize the week's numbers.
 


Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
How's this for risk? I hate going the "homer" route, but I'm really strongly leaning towards picking the Vikings in Week 1 (for one entry; I have more than one entry in this pool).

Yes, I'm banking a lot on Darnold not coughing up the football a bunch of times but I think KOC puts him in a great position and I think the Giants will be one of the worst teams in football this year. I think Flores makes life absolutely miserable for Daniel Jones and with a lot of new faces on defense, I suspect Flores is going to throw some things at Jones that they won't be expecting at all; the new personnel like Greenard, Van Ginkel, Cashman, and even Turner are going to give Flores the chance to be even more creative than normal.
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Slim Tubby said:
I like your reasoning but need to see Darnold in a real game before using the Vikings.

Not wanting to use a Top 15 team this early, I went with CHI. Their home crowd will be crazy for the first game of the Caleb/Odunze era. I'll be surprised if TEN scores more than 13 points in the game.
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Woo Hoo!!! Picking the Vikings in Week 1 of a Survivor League was a stretch but they pulled it out for me. I have another entry and picked the Saints in that one.

Cincinnati losing will knock out something like over 40% of the people/entries in Survivor Leagues. If the Broncos can beat the Seahawks, that will knock out another pile of people.

F'ng Chicago had no business winning. WTF... That would have eliminated another bunch. Shit, the Cardinals were giving Buffalo everything they could handle, which would have eliminated I think the 2nd most Survivor entries. Oh well...

Survive and advance!
 

Slim Tubby said:
I like your reasoning but need to see Darnold in a real game before using the Vikings.

Not wanting to use a Top 15 team this early, I went with CHI. Their home crowd will be crazy for the first game of the Caleb/Odunze era. I'll be surprised if TEN scores more than 13 points in the game.
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You got lucky
 


In my main league I have McCaffrey left. The other starters have combined for 0 TDs including my QB. Might be my worst week ever unless CMC does something.

IMG_3336.jpeg
 

In the semi-finals of my fantasy baseball league, and I'm definitely streaming Reid Detmers against the Twins tonight.

So the Twins are about to break out of their offensive slump.
 

GophersInIowa said:
In my main league I have McCaffrey left. The other starters have combined for 0 TDs including my QB. Might be my worst week ever unless CMC does something.
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A lot of noise here and there about McCaffrey not playing tonight against the Jets, or at least on quite a bit of a pitch count. Just for the heck of it, I grabbed some small prop bets shorting CMC in tonight's game; Under 72.5 yds Rushing and also for Breece Hall to outgain CMC on the ground.
 


Gophers1992 said:
What kind of scoring system do you have where Dalton Kincaid only has a .5 point based on those numbers?
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Haha, yeah it's pretty conservative with yardage. It's 1/2 PPR and one point per 20 yards but then have bonuses if they hit 100, 150, 200, etc (300, 350, 400, etc for QB).

We started this league a good 30 years ago when we did everything on paper liked checking box scores in the newspaper for stats, standings in a notebook. I remember writing my starting lineup on a sheet of paper each Sunday morning (didn't have the Thursday games back then) and running it over to my friend's house. Scoring then was very simple for RBs, WRs and TEs: 6 points for TDs and a bonus when they hit 100 yards. I think many of us like having it be a big deal to hit the century mark like it was back then, at least for this league.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Haha, yeah it's pretty conservative with yardage. It's 1/2 PPR and one point per 20 yards but then have bonuses if they hit 100, 150, 200, etc (300, 350, 400, etc for QB).

We started this league a good 30 years ago when we did everything on paper liked checking box scores in the newspaper for stats, standings in a notebook. I remember writing my starting lineup on a sheet of paper each Sunday morning (didn't have the Thursday games back then) and running it over to my friend's house. Scoring then was very simple for RBs, WRs and TEs: 6 points for TDs and a bonus when they hit 100 yards. I think many of us like having it be a big deal to hit the century mark like it was back then, at least for this league.
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Ah, thanks for explaining - I was going nuts trying to figure out everyone's points!
 

GophersInIowa said:
In my main league I have McCaffrey left. The other starters have combined for 0 TDs including my QB. Might be my worst week ever unless CMC does something.
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Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
A lot of noise here and there about McCaffrey not playing tonight against the Jets, or at least on quite a bit of a pitch count. Just for the heck of it, I grabbed some small prop bets shorting CMC in tonight's game; Under 72.5 yds Rushing and also for Breece Hall to outgain CMC on the ground.
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It's official now; no CMC tonight. Ruh roh...
 

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