Bowl Game Projections?

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Gophers_4life said:
That’s the last thing they care about.

Tickets and hotel rooms get sold, and the fanbases tune in on TV (won’t be many casual, with bigger bowl games the same day) … that’s all they care about.

Big Ten gets the payout, regardless of the quality of the game.
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Correct.
And right now iowa isn’t even entertaining enough to draw their typical travelers. I’ve never heard the Iowa fans I know so negative about the program

That’s exactly why you don’t pick them
 



Panthadad2 said:
The Pinstripe blows for a northern team. The players want a warmer weather spot as do many fans.
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There isn't a big temperature difference between NYC on December 29th and Nashville on December 31st. The historical average temperature in NYC on 12/29 is 37 and for Nashville on 12/31 it is 40.4.

I would also say that Nashville hotel prices are much more likely to be jacked up really high on New Years Eve as opposed to NYC on December 29th. Flights might be easier in and out of NYC around its bowl date. Few would want to rent a car in NYC but public transportation is more plentiful there.
 

cjbfbp said:
There isn't a big temperature difference between NYC on December 29th and Nashville on December 31st. The historical average temperature in NYC on 12/29 is 37 and for Nashville on 12/31 it is 40.4.

I would also say that Nashville hotel prices are much more likely to be jacked up really high on New Years Eve as opposed to NYC on December 29th. Flights might be easier in and out of NYC around its bowl date. Few would want to rent a car in NYC but public transportation is more plentiful there.
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I'm curious what most of the players and their families feel about New York vs. Nashville? It might be a wash. Last year, with COVID madness still infecting the New York mood, I feel the players probably preferred a trip to the technically lower ranked bowl in Arizona. It's not an issue this year from what I understand.
 


cjbfbp said:
There isn't a big temperature difference between NYC on December 29th and Nashville on December 31st. The historical average temperature in NYC on 12/29 is 37 and for Nashville on 12/31 it is 40.4.

I would also say that Nashville hotel prices are much more likely to be jacked up really high on New Years Eve as opposed to NYC on December 29th. Flights might be easier in and out of NYC around its bowl date. Few would want to rent a car in NYC but public transportation is more plentiful there.
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The date for the Pinstripe Bowl sucks.

The 26th or 27th would be good for spending Christmas in NYC, or the 30th or 31st for NYE (and a trip to Times Square, maybe).
 

WorkingMyTailOff said:
We all know Iowans love NYC so Pinstripe for them.
I wish there were more BIG and PAC10 match ups. Wanted to see Gophers vs Beavs, or Ducks, or Wash
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Agreed. I miss the Sun Bowl. Even though it is located out in the middle of nowhere, that game always had fun match ups and El Paso can be interesting if you only stay a couple days (great food and margarita heaven).
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
What folks need to remember is back in 2019 the Big Ten renegotiated most of their bowl contracts to explicitly avoid teams repeating in locations AND must have at least 5 schools in a 6 year period. To complicate matters, the Pinstripe was a little different in that if at all possible, there cannot be ANY teams going more than once. Since Maryland, Wisconsin and Iowa have all been to Pinstripe bowl, they might be out.

Playoff/NY6: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Orange: None....but if they take PSU then there is no Citrus Bowl
Citrus: Purdue (Iowa ineligible)
Reliaquest: Illinois (Penn State ineligible)
Music City: Iowa (Purdue ineligible)
Duke's Mayo: Maryland
Pinstripe: Minnesota (Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa have all been within last 6 years)
Guaranteed rate: Wisconsin (Minnesota ineligible)
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Ok. So Pinstripe takes the Illini.
 

Everybody and their brother has Purdue going to the Citrus. Unless it's contractual that the West champion goes to that game (I don't think it is), would they really be the top pick with an 8-5 record after getting monkey-stomped on national TV by Michigan?
 



DarrenTheGreek said:
What folks need to remember is back in 2019 the Big Ten renegotiated most of their bowl contracts to explicitly avoid teams repeating in locations AND must have at least 5 schools in a 6 year period. To complicate matters, the Pinstripe was a little different in that if at all possible, there cannot be ANY teams going more than once. Since Maryland, Wisconsin and Iowa have all been to Pinstripe bowl, they might be out.

Playoff/NY6: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Orange: None....but if they take PSU then there is no Citrus Bowl
Citrus: Purdue (Iowa ineligible)
Reliaquest: Illinois (Penn State ineligible)
Music City: Iowa (Purdue ineligible)
Duke's Mayo: Maryland
Pinstripe: Minnesota (Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa have all been within last 6 years)
Guaranteed rate: Wisconsin (Minnesota ineligible)
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I keep seeing different outlets projecting Wisconsin to the Pinstripe Bowl, it seems if the rule you are stating is so cut and dry these outlets would know this rule and not put teams there that have already been. Seems a bit harsh to punish an 8-4 team in this circumstance.
 

Panthadad2 said:
Everybody and their brother has Purdue going to the Citrus. Unless it's contractual that the West champion goes to that game (I don't think it is), would they really be the top pick with an 8-5 record after getting monkey-stomped on national TV by Michigan?
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Purdue to the Citrus Bowl is the only one after you get past the NY6 and PSU that seems most likely. After that....it kind of seems like a scrum.
 

Do Bowl game committees care about players that will be opting out, thus impacting game quality?

For Purdue, AOC and Charlie Jones sitting out would dramatically impact game quality. Similar, at Illinois with Chase Brown (and others?). For Minnesota, it's possible Mo, Schmitz and/or Nubin sit out.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
What folks need to remember is back in 2019 the Big Ten renegotiated most of their bowl contracts to explicitly avoid teams repeating in locations AND must have at least 5 schools in a 6 year period. To complicate matters, the Pinstripe was a little different in that if at all possible, there cannot be ANY teams going more than once. Since Maryland, Wisconsin and Iowa have all been to Pinstripe bowl, they might be out.

Playoff/NY6: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Orange: None....but if they take PSU then there is no Citrus Bowl
Citrus: Purdue (Iowa ineligible)
Reliaquest: Illinois (Penn State ineligible)
Music City: Iowa (Purdue ineligible)
Duke's Mayo: Maryland
Pinstripe: Minnesota (Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa have all been within last 6 years)
Guaranteed rate: Wisconsin (Minnesota ineligible)
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This is a great post and mainly accurate, but from what I understand the 6 year B1G bowl placement cycle reset in 2020, so destinations prior to that season technically shouldn't matter this year. So the only B1G team that's been to the Pinstripe is Maryland -- thus the many national predictions of Wisconsin and Iowa going there.

While this process the conference and bowls use to "place" rather than "select" teams started in 2014 and reset in 2020, it's still VERY opaque, so there's really no guessing how they'll work out the middle of the conference again this year. Sure fun to speculate though!
 




Panthadad2 said:
Everybody and their brother has Purdue going to the Citrus. Unless it's contractual that the West champion goes to that game (I don't think it is), would they really be the top pick with an 8-5 record after getting monkey-stomped on national TV by Michigan?
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If Purdue isn’t competitive against Michigan, I think the Citrus Bowl goes to Illinois (who was competitive vs. Michigan, unlike Ohio State). This game is probably going to be vs. LSU.
 

MGGopher said:
By the way, several more "professional" predictions today for us to discuss! Four publications, four different destinations! Isn't bowl prediction season fun?!?!

Action Network: Music City vs Kentucky (projected as a pick em BTW)

Sports Illustrated: Mayo vs FSU

USA Today: Pinstripe vs Syracuse

Pro Football Network: Reliaquest vs South Carolina
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The worst of these clearly is the Pinstripe. Not so much because of the bowl; it's the opponent. Beating Syracuse does absolutely nothing for us. We'd be much better off with Mississippi or South Carolina in the Music City than Kentucky but I can see why the Music City Bowl would want KY.
 

Panthadad2 said:
Do Bowl game committees care about players that will be opting out, thus impacting game quality?

For Purdue, AOC and Charlie Jones sitting out would dramatically impact game quality. Similar, at Illinois with Chase Brown (and others?). For Minnesota, it's possible Mo, Schmitz and/or Nubin sit out.
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You don't know most of the players opting out until after the bowl assignments.
 

Goldmember said:
If Purdue isn’t competitive against Michigan, I think the Citrus Bowl goes to Illinois (who was competitive vs. Michigan, unlike Ohio State). This game is probably going to be vs. LSU.
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That's why I said that winning the West this year was a pyrrhic victory. You got the privilege of being smashed by Michigan (or could have been OSU) and you may then have to face someone like LSU. It would have been different if the West champ had been a 10-2 caliber team (that was also better than Iowa's 10-2 team last season).
 

Panthadad2 said:
I'm curious what most of the players and their families feel about New York vs. Nashville? It might be a wash.
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I'd say that it probably is. Both are great tourist cities and both are unique. I'd say that NYC has more attractions for players who are underage.
 


MGGopher said:
This is a great post and mainly accurate, but from what I understand the 6 year B1G bowl placement cycle reset in 2020, so destinations prior to that season technically shouldn't matter this year. So the only B1G team that's been to the Pinstripe is Maryland -- thus the many national predictions of Wisconsin and Iowa going there.

While this process the conference and bowls use to "place" rather than "select" teams started in 2014 and reset in 2020, it's still VERY opaque, so there's really no guessing how they'll work out the middle of the conference again this year. Sure fun to speculate though!
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I'm not so sure it reset. I think most of them just rolled over so it had to be at least 5 teams in a 6 year period with no repeats. But I know the Pinstripe Bowl was negotiated separately. My recollection of the Pinstripe rules was that for the original 8-year agreement, 8 separate teams were required. But once it was renewed now it changed to be a minimum of 6 different teams over an 8 year period. So the last 8 years:
Penn State, Indiana, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, COVID, Maryland

So I guess it IS possible that they could take Iowa, Wisconsin or Maryland on a return trip. I still don't think they will. I hope I'm wrong though....it has happened before.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
I'm not so sure it reset. I think most of them just rolled over so it had to be at least 5 teams in a 6 year period with no repeats. But I know the Pinstripe Bowl was negotiated separately. My recollection of the Pinstripe rules was that for the original 8-year agreement, 8 separate teams were required. But once it was renewed now it changed to be a minimum of 6 different teams over an 8 year period. So the last 8 years:
Penn State, Indiana, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, COVID, Maryland

So I guess it IS possible that they could take Iowa, Wisconsin or Maryland on a return trip. I still don't think they will. I hope I'm wrong though....it has happened before.
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Purdue appeared in the Music City in both 2018 & 2021. Considering that there was no Music City Bowl in 2020, that's not much of a gap between appearances.
 

Panthadad2 said:
Agreed. I miss the Sun Bowl. Even though it is located out in the middle of nowhere, that game always had fun match ups and El Paso can be interesting if you only stay a couple days (great food and margarita heaven).
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I wish the B1G would go back with the Sun Bowl. I'd love to visit there for a bowl game.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
I'm not so sure it reset. I think most of them just rolled over so it had to be at least 5 teams in a 6 year period with no repeats. But I know the Pinstripe Bowl was negotiated separately. My recollection of the Pinstripe rules was that for the original 8-year agreement, 8 separate teams were required. But once it was renewed now it changed to be a minimum of 6 different teams over an 8 year period. So the last 8 years:
Penn State, Indiana, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, COVID, Maryland

So I guess it IS possible that they could take Iowa, Wisconsin or Maryland on a return trip. I still don't think they will. I hope I'm wrong though....it has happened before.
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You definitely could be right, and the bottom line is that none of us actually know how these contracts are structured -- unless Kevin Warren is posting here 😂. Since the bowls signed new 6 year agreements for 2020-2025, I assumed the "5 teams in 6 years" requirements reset at that time rather than moving forward on a rolling basis, but I truly have no idea. The only thing I ever saw officially released by the B1G was this very vague article with no strict parameters.
 

disco said:
I wish the B1G would go back with the Sun Bowl. I'd love to visit there for a bowl game.
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Agreed. The local fan support is great and the venue is totally underrated (a natural bowl in the foothills of mountains north of town) but the BG10 prefers a mayonnaise fest or freeze-your-ass-off-in-NY bowl.
 


I'd hope that somebody (Fleck or Coyle) would have some words if the Gophers got the Pinstripe Bowl. After getting leapfrogged last year....the thought was that Fleck/Coyle actually chose the Guaranteed Rate Bowl (step lower) because they didn't want NYC. Getting leapfrogged again and being pushed to the Pinstripe would be cause for anger.
 

BilldGopher said:
When AggieVision is the only way to see a game it sticks with you...like chewed bubble gum on hot pavement to the bottom of your shoe. It ain't going away...

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dumbgoph said:
People are forgetting that with the new bowl contracts, the bowl's don't have a simple ranking that they slide the B1G team's into based on how they finished (or perceived "travelness" of fans). While we might think Music City is better than Mayo, that doesn't necessarily mean the better team will go there. If the B1G thinks that putting Minnesota in Music City and Iowa in Mayo (or vice versa) makes more money, they'll do that regardless of performance.
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Change your moniker
 

The individual Bowl committees have a say in this, too. I think technically, the B1G is supposed to have final say, but if Bowl X really wants a certain team, I suspect the B1G will go along to keep their bowl partners happy.

In the end, this is how I see bowl games:
1. Rose Bowl
2. New Year's Day bowls
3. everything else

to be sure, if you're planning to attend a game in person, the destination matters. I get that. But for the majority of fans who will be watching on TV, one bowl game is pretty much like another. the only difference is the date and time of kickoff.

FWIW:
Pinstripe - Thur, Dec 29 - 1pm (CST)
Mayo - Fri, Dec 30 - 11am
Music City - Sat, Dec 31 - 11am
 

Panthadad2 said:
Agreed. The local fan support is great and the venue is totally underrated (a natural bowl in the foothills of mountains north of town) but the BG10 prefers a mayonnaise fest or freeze-your-ass-off-in-NY bowl.
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I'm kind of fascinated with that stadium. It just looks so cool.
 

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