Bowl Game Projections?

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Gophers_4life said:
I can't see how the Mayo would pick us over Iowa. But maybe they would.

It's entirely who they (Mayo) choose, at that point in the selection process.
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The Mayo Bowl may “select“ first (I don’t know) but the Music City Bowl seems to be the better bowl. It has a higher payout and is played on a Saturday at Noon leading right into the CFP semifinals.

Both bowls will probably want Iowa. Iowa will want the Music City Bowl.
 

Crap, I had it backwards.

MC is one slot higher up than the Mayo. You can tell because they play a day later (ie, closer to NYD/Jan 2 this year).

They get to select one slot before the Mayo.


So that probably means Iowa to the MC and Gophers get dunked in Mayo. Boo
 

Gophers_4life said:
I'm just trying to think if both TCU and USC somehow lose, if that messes something up? But probably not, that probably puts Ohio St and Alabama (unbelievable) into the CFP. Penn St to the Rose then, we wouldn't have a 4th team in the NY6 anyway.
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I can't see any two loss team making the CFP. I think a USC championship loss gets OSU in for sure.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Purely the amount of hardcore fanbase, ie the ones more likely to travel for the game.

They have and fill a 75k (I think, around there) stadium, we struggle to fill a 50k stadium. Just is what it is. Bowls are about selling tickets, hotel rooms, and filling up restaurants and bars. TV ratings too
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Gophers sold out their allotment of Outback Bowl tickets. Attendance was basically identical to last years PSU/Arkansas game. With a decent game, the Gophers will sell their allotment just fine. Need a better reason than that for why Iowa would be taken over Minnesota.
 

Selfishly, I’m hoping Pinstripe. We cant go this year and sitting outside in NY at a baseball stadium sounds awful.

Pinstripe and Motor City are the two I’m not interested in going to.
 


People are forgetting that with the new bowl contracts, the bowl's don't have a simple ranking that they slide the B1G team's into based on how they finished (or perceived "travelness" of fans). While we might think Music City is better than Mayo, that doesn't necessarily mean the better team will go there. If the B1G thinks that putting Minnesota in Music City and Iowa in Mayo (or vice versa) makes more money, they'll do that regardless of performance.
 

JWG said:
Selfishly, I’m hoping Pinstripe. We cant go this year and sitting outside in NY at a baseball stadium sounds awful.

Pinstripe and Motor City are the two I’m not interested in going to.
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Selfish would be hoping that we go to the Pinstripe because you are in New York and then you'd be able to go. Hoping that we go to a worse bowl.....playing in cold weather simply because you cannot go would be spite. Kind of a weird thing to hope for.
 

Goldmember said:
The Mayo Bowl may “select“ first (I don’t know) but the Music City Bowl seems to be the better bowl. It has a higher payout and is played on a Saturday at Noon leading right into the CFP semifinals.

Both bowls will probably want Iowa. Iowa will want the Music City Bowl.
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If I’m a bowl I would rather have Minnesota, Maryland, Purdue, Illinois, before Iowa

Iowa is guaranteeing yourself an ugly boring game tbh
 

stocker08 said:
Selfish would be hoping that we go to the Pinstripe because you are in New York and then you'd be able to go. Hoping that we go to a worse bowl.....playing in cold weather simply because you cannot go would be spite. Kind of a weird thing to hope for.
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Let me rephrase…

With the exception of two (Detroit and NYC), we go to the bowl games. We can’t go this year regardless. If the Gophers don’t go to the Pinstripe, it‘s more likely they will in a future year as wherever they go this year will be off the table so to speak. That means more likely another year we don’t go as their odds of NYC go up. Selfishly, I’d rather the odds of us not going in future years not go up.
 



JWG said:
Let me rephrase…

With the exception of two (Detroit and NYC), we go to the bowl games. We can’t go this year regardless. If the Gophers don’t go to the Pinstripe, it‘s more likely they will in a future year as wherever they go this year will be off the table so to speak. That means more likely another year we don’t go as their odds of NYC go up. Selfishly, I’d rather the odds of us not going in future years not go up.
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We've never been to the Mayo Bowl. Haven't been to the Citrus Bowl since 2015. Haven't been to the Outback/Reliaquest Bowl since 2019. Haven't been to the Music City Bowl since 2005.

If the Gophers keep winning 8+ games every year....they aren't going to run out of eligibility at all four of these bowls and be forced to go to a Pinstripe Bowl when their record suggest they deserve a better bowl.
 

JWG said:
Selfishly, I’m hoping Pinstripe. We cant go this year and sitting outside in NY at a baseball stadium sounds awful.

Pinstripe and Motor City are the two I’m not interested in going to.
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Tell me you're a dick without telling me you're a dick lol. I'm kidding, sorta. You clarified below.
 


dumbgoph said:
While we might think Music City is better than Mayo, that doesn't necessarily mean the better team will go there. If the B1G thinks that putting Minnesota in Music City and Iowa in Mayo (or vice versa) makes more money, they'll do that regardless of performance.
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Please explain. I agree with the first sentence but I don't understand the second. Doesn't each bowl have a standard payout regardless of the participants? I seriously doubt the conference gets a cut from hotels, restaurants, rental cars, parking, airlines, and concessions.
 



Cobra said:
Playing and beating Ole Miss with the Lane Train in Nashville would be awesome, and go a long way to restoring my faith in Fleck.
He and the staff usually do well when they have a month and 15 practices to prepare.
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Of the projections of opponents I've seen so far, I would rate the probability of being ranked because of a bowl victory as follows:

1) Florida State (clearly #1);

2) Mississippi;

3) North Carolina State.

I haven't seen us matched against South Carolina but a victory over them may do it too.

I don't think any other likely opponent from the ACC or SEC gets us there.
 

Some guy said:
If I’m a bowl I would rather have Minnesota, Maryland, Purdue, Illinois, before Iowa

Iowa is guaranteeing yourself an ugly boring game tbh
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I don't see that as much of a consideration. A college football bowl is not like a restaurant where people may not go there again if the food was bad on a particular day.
 

cjbfbp said:
Please explain. I agree with the first sentence but I don't understand the second. Doesn't each bowl have a standard payout regardless of the participants? I seriously doubt the conference gets a cut from hotels, restaurants, rental cars, parking, airlines, and concessions.
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Are you implying that "dumbgoph" lacks the requisite knowledge to comment on this subject?
 

What folks need to remember is back in 2019 the Big Ten renegotiated most of their bowl contracts to explicitly avoid teams repeating in locations AND must have at least 5 schools in a 6 year period. To complicate matters, the Pinstripe was a little different in that if at all possible, there cannot be ANY teams going more than once. Since Maryland, Wisconsin and Iowa have all been to Pinstripe bowl, they might be out.

Playoff/NY6: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Orange: None....but if they take PSU then there is no Citrus Bowl
Citrus: Purdue (Iowa ineligible)
Reliaquest: Illinois (Penn State ineligible)
Music City: Iowa (Purdue ineligible)
Duke's Mayo: Maryland
Pinstripe: Minnesota (Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa have all been within last 6 years)
Guaranteed rate: Wisconsin (Minnesota ineligible)
 


GoldyPush-Ups said:
I believe the first sentence to be incorrect. And the second sentence is definitely not how it works.
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There's also this: Music City Bowl payout is approximately 20% bigger (Mayo ~$4.8m, MC $5.7m.)

I think, all said, MC Bowl is a tick above the Mayo Bowl.
 

USAF said:
There's also this: Music City Bowl payout is approximately 20% bigger (Mayo ~$4.8m, MC $5.7m.)

I think, all said, MC Bowl is a tick above the Mayo Bowl.
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It also features a SEC team which normally is going to be a tick above an ACC team with a similar record.
 

Panthadad2 said:
The Pinstripe blows for a northern team. The players want a warmer weather spot as do many fans. I hope the BG10 drops that garbage when the contract is up.
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They should drop the Quick Lane Bowl first. That was good enough when the opponent tie in was from the ACC but now it's back to a MACC opponent and that's humiliating for any Big Ten team to be assigned there. Luckily, the conference hasn't filled that bowl often but if Michigan State had beaten Indiana, the conference possibly would have this season.
 

Damn. Feels like Pinstripe.

That’s lame and feels like a letdown.

Feels like we would’ve gone there anyway, even with a loss to Wisc, since we couldn’t go back to Phoenix and QL will go unfilled this year.


With the win over Wisc, we deserve to be selected over Maryland. But my gut is telling me they’re going to get picked over us.

But if Mayo wants Maryland, perhaps for some nostalgic former ACC matchup, then that’s that. Big Ten doesn’t give a crap.
 

GoldyPush-Ups said:
I believe the first sentence to be incorrect. And the second sentence is definitely not how it works.
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Perhaps not generally, but I do believe (coincidentally) that it holds this year.

MC will get to pick a Big Ten team before Mayo, and after Citrus and Outback.

Those two will want Purdue and Iowa. Mayo can pick between us, Maryland, and Wisc.
 

Some guy said:
If I’m a bowl I would rather have Minnesota, Maryland, Purdue, Illinois, before Iowa

Iowa is guaranteeing yourself an ugly boring game tbh
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That’s the last thing they care about.

Tickets and hotel rooms get sold, and the fanbases tune in on TV (won’t be many casual, with bigger bowl games the same day) … that’s all they care about.

Big Ten gets the payout, regardless of the quality of the game.
 

stocker08 said:
Gophers sold out their allotment of Outback Bowl tickets. Attendance was basically identical to last years PSU/Arkansas game. With a decent game, the Gophers will sell their allotment just fine. Need a better reason than that for why Iowa would be taken over Minnesota.
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I’m with you, but your last sentence is not correct.

They don’t “need” any reason to do anything. They can pick any team they want at that spot and the Big Ten doesn’t care.
 

If someone can dig up a document or article confirming that all teams at a particular (conf) W-L have to be selected before the current selecting bowl and move to the next tier down, that would be great.

That’s how it “should” work, if fairness mattered.

I just don’t believe the Big Ten cares.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
What folks need to remember is back in 2019 the Big Ten renegotiated most of their bowl contracts to explicitly avoid teams repeating in locations AND must have at least 5 schools in a 6 year period. To complicate matters, the Pinstripe was a little different in that if at all possible, there cannot be ANY teams going more than once. Since Maryland, Wisconsin and Iowa have all been to Pinstripe bowl, they might be out.

Playoff/NY6: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Orange: None....but if they take PSU then there is no Citrus Bowl
Citrus: Purdue (Iowa ineligible)
Reliaquest: Illinois (Penn State ineligible)
Music City: Iowa (Purdue ineligible)
Duke's Mayo: Maryland
Pinstripe: Minnesota (Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa have all been within last 6 years)
Guaranteed rate: Wisconsin (Minnesota ineligible)
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If those provisions are enforced, that would seem to be the wrong solution to the problem. I could see a three year moratorium on a return visit but five or six years are too long. We all know what the problem was. In former days, a team like Iowa often went to a better bowl than it deserved because of its traveling reputation.
 


cjbfbp said:
I don't see that as much of a consideration. A college football bowl is not like a restaurant where people may not go there again if the food was bad on a particular day.
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I don’t get this analogy

A bowl game is an event where you want to get people as excited as you can. Right now nobody in Iowa is excited about Iowa football and nobody nationally is excited about Iowa football.
 


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