All Things 2021 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

[coolhandgopher]

Of course he's an upgrade, I said that. All I'm saying is, there's a difference between the argument, just in general, of whether or not a team should trade for someone like Watson and whether or not the Vikings should. Sure, I would make that trade, in and of itself. If I'm the Vikings, the way the roster stands today and their current salary cap situation, I don't think I would do it and I sure as hell don't think Spielman and Zimmer do it.

Anyone that thinks dumping Cousins and two 1st round draft picks for Watson suddenly makes this roster a contender in the NFC in the next year or two is delusional.

And I'll reiterate, Watson's not going anywhere. There is no way that Nick Cesario is walking into Houston in his first couple weeks on the job and trading away a franchise QB. It's not happening. He got to see first hand in New England just how important it is to have a franchise QB. All of this noise will be ancient history in a month or two

The reason a trade for Watson makes sense is it’s not only about making the team contenders for the next year or two, but because you would be set at the position for years. Sometime in the next year or so, the Vikings have to devote draft capital to a QB, sign a QB, or ride it out with Cousins through the next contract. As we’ve seen time and again, drafting a QB is a crapshoot; signing an available QB is a roll of the dice; and does anyone want to see the Kirk Cousins experience 3 seasons from now?

And I don’t think this is only noise-although Watson seems to be a really good dude, the template is out there on how to force your way out of undesirable situations. I don’t expect him to go James Harden, but between his resolve to leave and the clusterf_ck that is Houston’s front office, I think he’ll be gone by the draft.

 

[MplsGopher]

The rating of QBs is not linear. Thus, if Cousins is the 10th best QB, he is closer to the 20th best QB than he is to the best QB. The curve takes a steep incline at the top. I’m not sure Watson is at that level, but at least he’s closer, and still has time to improve even further.

I have to imagine the idea of playing with Jefferson, Thielen, and Cook would be inticing to a QB. I have to imagine the old school approach of Zim is a bit of a detractor, but if there are weapons, I would think that trumps most things.

I agree with this.

Although, maybe(?), playing with Cook in a run-first offense would be a detractor?

 

[MplsGopher]

The reason a trade for Watson makes sense is it’s not only about making the team contenders for the next year or two, but because you would be set at the position for years. Sometime in the next year or so, the Vikings have to devote draft capital to a QB, sign a QB, or ride it out with Cousins through the next contract. As we’ve seen time and again, drafting a QB is a crapshoot; signing an available QB is a roll of the dice; and does anyone want to see the Kirk Cousins experience 3 seasons from now?

And I don’t think this is only noise-although Watson seems to be a really good dude, the template is out there on how to force your way out of undesirable situations. I don’t expect him to go James Harden, but between his resolve to leave and the clusterf_ck that is Houston’s front office, I think he’ll be gone by the draft.

I think Ogee has a point. But it's still more possible than 0% that Houston and their new GM could decide that trading Watson is the best move, because:
- gets someone out who isn't happy and doesn't want to be there
- you'd get a serviceable QB in Cousins, who is good enough to win games if he doesn't have to "put the team on his back dooh"
- you'd get two first round picks, I assume one each in the next two drafts, where you can go for a new franchise QB this year and perhaps another key piece next year.

I guess that's the argument. We'll see if it happens.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

The reason a trade for Watson makes sense is it’s not only about making the team contenders for the next year or two, but because you would be set at the position for years. Sometime in the next year or so, the Vikings have to devote draft capital to a QB, sign a QB, or ride it out with Cousins through the next contract. As we’ve seen time and again, drafting a QB is a crapshoot; signing an available QB is a roll of the dice; and does anyone want to see the Kirk Cousins experience 3 seasons from now?

And I don’t think this is only noise-although Watson seems to be a really good dude, the template is out there on how to force your way out of undesirable situations. I don’t expect him to go James Harden, but between his resolve to leave and the clusterf_ck that is Houston’s front office, I think he’ll be gone by the draft.

Again, everything you're saying makes sense.... HOWEVER, for the very reasons you're saying, it just never happens. You're talking about positioning for years, but you're dealing with people (a GM and a HC) who often don't have the luxury of thinking that far down the road. Their job expectancy rarely offers them that luxury, especially after an underperforming season like this last one. Good grief, fans are already calling for both of their heads and they just went 7-9. Do you think they survive going 4-12 next year like the Texans did, hoping fans will be happy the QB threw for almost 5,000 yards?

Zimmer and Spielman are going to look at the next couple months and think, the offense was fine (sure we could use help on the OL, but everyone could); if we get all those defensive players back and we hit on our 1st rounder this year, or turn that 1st rounder into a later 1st rounder and maybe a low 2nd, we're back in contention this year. Might be flawed thinking but that's exactly what they are thinking right now.

Look, I'd love the move. Watson instead of Cousins? Hell yes! It's just not happening for that kind of a price. You're going to have a hard time finding someone in that building who will say the reason they didn't make the playoffs is Kirk Cousins.

Lastly, trading future 1st round picks is a damn risky proposition. Look at what happened to the Texans this year. When they traded away their 2021 1st rounder to Miami, do you think they thought it would be the #3 pick in the draft? That has to sting like a mother, and don't think every GM in the league isn't aware of that

 

[Ope3]

Random thoughts from watching the NFL Divisional Playoffs

- Is this the last of Drew Brees? Sure looked like it.
- Amazing that including their 1999 Big 10 game Brees & Brady have faced each other in 4 different decades.
- Brady joins Montana & Favre by getting back to the Conference Title games with their new teams. Can he go 1 further?
- Great to see Gopher alums making solid contributions for the Bucs. Winfield Jr's comment "This is for pops" as revenge for the 2009 game was great.
- Even just 9000 fans in Lambeau gives them an additional home field advantage.
- Reid's gutsy call at the end was just fantastic theater.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Re: Watson.

What's the point of trading for a QB like Watson as long as Zim is still HC? Zim has made it clear that he wants a run-based offense with a QB who doesn't take chances. I don't see Zim and Watson being able to co-exist.

if the Vikes were really going to go after Watson and (potentially) trade Cousins to the 49'ers, that would mean a completely different organizational philosophy. Which - IMHO - is not going to happen as long as Zimmer and Spielman are running the show.

if the Wilfs want to go in an entirely new direction, then going after Watson makes sense - but only in the context of replacing Zimmer and Spielman.

 

[howeda7]

Re: Watson.

What's the point of trading for a QB like Watson as long as Zim is still HC? Zim has made it clear that he wants a run-based offense with a QB who doesn't take chances. I don't see Zim and Watson being able to co-exist.

if the Vikes were really going to go after Watson and (potentially) trade Cousins to the 49'ers, that would mean a completely different organizational philosophy. Which - IMHO - is not going to happen as long as Zimmer and Spielman are running the show.

if the Wilfs want to go in an entirely new direction, then going after Watson makes sense - but only in the context of replacing Zimmer and Spielman.

I think this is over-blown. Cousins #'s are fine. He threw 30-some TD's. It's not as though Zim's trying to make them run an offense from the 1970's or something.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Re: Watson.

What's the point of trading for a QB like Watson as long as Zim is still HC? Zim has made it clear that he wants a run-based offense with a QB who doesn't take chances. I don't see Zim and Watson being able to co-exist.

if the Vikes were really going to go after Watson and (potentially) trade Cousins to the 49'ers, that would mean a completely different organizational philosophy. Which - IMHO - is not going to happen as long as Zimmer and Spielman are running the show.

if the Wilfs want to go in an entirely new direction, then going after Watson makes sense - but only in the context of replacing Zimmer and Spielman.

What you described in your first paragraph sounds a lot like GB, and they have one of the best QBs to play over the last 15 years.

 

[MplsGopher]

Rivers is retiring.

#ColtsforCousins ??

 

[howeda7]

Rivers is retiring.

#ColtsforCousins ??

Don't see that happening. The 49ers are allegedly interested though. Might have to take Jimmy G back in return to make the cap work, but we could then dump him after 2021.

 

[MplsGopher]

Don't see that happening. The 49ers are allegedly interested though. Might have to take Jimmy G back in return to make the cap work, but we could then dump him after 2021.

Jimmy G's cap number for 2021 is $26.9M, vs Kirk's for 2021 is $31M.

https://overthecap.com/player/kirk-cousins/1443/
https://overthecap.com/player/jimmy-garoppolo/3001/

It seems very non-intuitive to answer the following question: how much money would we actually free up to spend on other players in 2021, if we did the trade straight-up?

I assume it must be more than 31-26.9 million, but hell if I know what the formula is.

 

[Ope3]

- Amazing that including their 1999 Big 10 game Brees & Brady have faced each other in 4 different decades.

For comparison, Mahomes & Mayfield faced off in the Big 12 a few years back as well as this past weekend. If they are still slinging it at age 45 and play each other in the year 2040 they would equal that feat.

 

[howeda7]

Jimmy G's cap number for 2021 is $26.9M, vs Kirk's for 2021 is $31M.

https://overthecap.com/player/kirk-cousins/1443/
https://overthecap.com/player/jimmy-garoppolo/3001/

It seems very non-intuitive to answer the following question: how much money would we actually free up to spend on other players in 2021, if we did the trade straight-up?

I assume it must be more than 31-26.9 million, but hell if I know what the formula is.

It appears the Vikings total cap hit in 2021 would be $42.7 million. $22.7 million to Jimmy G and $20 million in dead cap $ for Cousins. Ugh. The 49ers would only be on the hook for a total of a total of $23.8 million. $21 million to Cousins and $2.8 million in dead cap $.

The big thing is we could then cut Jimmy G after 2021 and walk away. Cousins 2022 contract is guaranteed after the 3rd day of the league year in March.

After seeing this, it's not really necessary for 49'ers to trade Jimmy. They can just cut him. The Vikings will have to look for a cheaper QB. Chances are they could sign Jimmy as FA for far less than $22.7 million.

 

[MplsGopher]

It appears the Vikings total cap hit in 2021 would be $42.7 million. $22.7 million to Jimmy G and $20 million in dead cap $ for Cousins. Ugh. The 49ers would only be on the hook for a total of a total of $23.8 million. $21 million to Cousins and $2.8 million in dead cap $.

The big thing is we could then cut Jimmy G after 2021 and walk away. Cousins 2022 contract is guaranteed after the 3rd day of the league year in March.

After seeing this, it's not really necessary for 49'ers to trade Jimmy. They can just cut him. The Vikings will have to look for a cheaper QB. Chances are they could sign Jimmy as FA for far less than $22.7 million.

But for us, we have to trade Cousins to get the best savings, right? Anything other than a trade, appears to be far worse: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/kirk-cousins-9915/

We can't trade him to the 49ers for nothing. So I think the deal is Jimmy for Kirk, straight up. Then as you said, we can cut Jimmy and look elsewhere or try to resign him for less. (the latter route probably looks much better as a restructuring, I guess, if he's willing)

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

It appears the Vikings total cap hit in 2021 would be $42.7 million. $22.7 million to Jimmy G and $20 million in dead cap $ for Cousins. Ugh. The 49ers would only be on the hook for a total of a total of $23.8 million. $21 million to Cousins and $2.8 million in dead cap $.

The big thing is we could then cut Jimmy G after 2021 and walk away. Cousins 2022 contract is guaranteed after the 3rd day of the league year in March.

After seeing this, it's not really necessary for 49'ers to trade Jimmy. They can just cut him. The Vikings will have to look for a cheaper QB. Chances are they could sign Jimmy as FA for far less than $22.7 million.

With an elite play caller like Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy G has accomplished little more than Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard, and that's also with arguably one of the best defensive front 7s in the NFL over the same time period. I think the luster has certainly come off Jimmy G in the last season or two, along with the fact that he has a hard time answering the bell. Definitely gets points for publicly dating porn stars though. Come strong or don't come at all

 

[howeda7]

But for us, we have to trade Cousins to get the best savings, right? Anything other than a trade, appears to be far worse: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/kirk-cousins-9915/

We can't trade him to the 49ers for nothing. So I think the deal is Jimmy for Kirk, straight up. Then as you said, we can cut Jimmy and look elsewhere or try to resign him for less. (the latter route probably looks much better as a restructuring, I guess, if he's willing)

Yes. We either have to trade Kirk before that deadline in March or keep him for two more years basically. They certainly can't cut him.

You could have both guys re-structure their deals as part of the trade. Or you could just trade Cousins for a 3rd round pick and let the 49ers release Jimmy. I think that is more likely.

 

[MplsGopher]

Yes. We either have to trade Kirk before that deadline in March or keep him for two more years basically. They certainly can't cut him.

You could have both guys re-structure their deals as part of the trade. Or you could just trade Cousins for a 3rd round pick and let the 49ers release Jimmy. I think that is more likely.

OK. That works for me. Wonder if this has any chance at all.

 

[howeda7]

OK. That works for me. Wonder if this has any chance at all.

I think so. Shanahan loves Cousins. But is Spielman smart/humble enough to admit an error and do it? I personally have nothing against Cousins, but they can't field a real contending team AND pay him $30-40 million dollars. If his salary was cut in half, I'd be all about keeping him.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

I think so. Shanahan loves Cousins. But is Spielman smart/humble enough to admit an error and do it? I personally have nothing against Cousins, but they can't field a real contending team AND pay him $30-40 million dollars. If his salary was cut in half, I'd be all about keeping him.

10 NFL QBs will make ~30 million or more next season, and Cousins is a borderline top 10 QB. That's the going rate for a NFL QB.

There's zero chance they move on from Cousins this offseason, and they shouldn't. I really want to see them draft a QB high, start Cousins for one more season, then start that QB the following season. They can move on from Cousins after next season and his dead cap is only 10 million, which is significantly less than it would be if they moved on from him now.

 

[howeda7]

10 NFL QBs will make ~30 million or more next season, and Cousins is a borderline top 10 QB. That's the going rate for a NFL QB.

There's zero chance they move on from Cousins this offseason, and they shouldn't. I really want to see them draft a QB high, start Cousins for one more season, then start that QB the following season. They can move on from Cousins after next season and his dead cap is only 10 million, which is significantly less than it would be if they moved on from him now.

That is most likely, but it's not zero that he could be traded.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

That is most likely, but it's not zero that he could be traded.

I don't think they'll take a minimum of a $20 million cap hit just to not have Cousins on the roster this season, and start a rookie QB, or a veteran who would cost them more money and may not be as good. That doesn't make any sense.

 

[howeda7]

I don't think they'll take a minimum of a $20 million cap hit just to not have Cousins on the roster this season, and start a rookie QB, or a veteran who would cost them more money and may not be as good. That doesn't make any sense.

It may not be the best move for 2021. But if they keep him past the March deadline they're also stuck with him for 2022. And they'll probably end up extending/re-structuring even further because his cap # in 2022 is $45 million.

If you've determined he's not the guy to get you to a Super Bowl, you have to move on and stop kicking the can if possible. They can trade him, sign a veteran for $10-15 million, draft a rookie for the long-term and be no worse off cap-wise then they are now. And be free from this going forward.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

It may not be the best move for 2021. But if they keep him past the March deadline they're also stuck with him for 2022. And they'll probably end up extending/re-structuring even further because his cap # in 2022 is $45 million.

If you've determined he's not the guy to get you to a Super Bowl, you have to move on and stop kicking the can if possible. They can trade him, sign a veteran for $10-15 million, draft a rookie for the long-term and be no worse off cap-wise then they are now. And be free from this going forward.

Why would the Vikings be stuck with him in 2022 if they keep him past March?

And what starting caliber QB are you going to sign for 10-15 million? There are no good, starting caliber QBs getting paid that unless they are on their rookie contracts.

Any starting caliber FA QB is going to make 20+ million.

 

[forever a gopher]

Why would the Vikings be stuck with him in 2022 if they keep him past March?

And what starting caliber QB are you going to sign for 10-15 million? There are no good, starting caliber QBs getting paid that unless they are on their rookie contracts.

Any starting caliber FA QB is going to make 20+ million.

Cousins 2022 contract is fully guaranteed on the 3rd day (or somewhere there about) of the 2021 league year. Which would be March 20, 2021.

Otherwise, with his cap number in 2022, it would have been all but guaranteed he would have been cut prior to 2022, no matter his performance. All I have to say is if you have contract negotiations, hire that dudes agent.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Cousins 2022 contract is fully guaranteed on the 3rd day (or somewhere there about) of the 2021 league year. Which would be March 20, 2021.

Otherwise, with his cap number in 2022, it would have been all but guaranteed he would have been cut prior to 2022, no matter his performance. All I have to say is if you have contract negotiations, hire that dudes agent.

Thanks, that makes sense, but I still don't think that makes him unmovable in 2022.

 

[MplsGopher]

There are no good, starting caliber QBs getting paid that unless they are on their rookie contracts.

Well .... yeah. I think, these days, that's exactly the point.

If you don't have a guy who legit can get you to a Super Bowl .... then what even is the point of keeping a $30M dollar guy around?

Start over and try again, on the cheap rookie deal.

New blood arriving from college every year.

 

[MplsGopher]

Cousins 2022 contract is fully guaranteed on the 3rd day (or somewhere there about) of the 2021 league year. Which would be March 20, 2021.

Otherwise, with his cap number in 2022, it would have been all but guaranteed he would have been cut prior to 2022, no matter his performance. All I have to say is if you have contract negotiations, hire that dudes agent.

Sorry, I still don't get it.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/kirk-cousins-9915/

To me this is just saying we only take a $10M dead cap hit, if we trade or cut him before the 2022 season. Instead of a $45M cap hit if he's on the team. For a savings of $35M.

And the details say the full $66M was guaranteed at signing day.


What is this missing or getting wrong?

 

[forever a gopher]

Sorry, I still don't get it.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/kirk-cousins-9915/

To me this is just saying we only take a $10M dead cap hit, if we trade or cut him before the 2022 season. Instead of a $45M cap hit if he's on the team. For a savings of $35M.

And the details say the full $66M was guaranteed at signing day.


What is this missing or getting wrong?

Look at the “contract notes” at this link:

https://overthecap.com/player/kirk-cousins/1443/


Contract Notes
Kirk Cousins signed a two year contract extension with the Vikings worth $66 million on March 16, 2020. Cousins at the time of signing had one year remaining on his old contract worth $30 million making the total package worth $96 million over three years. $61 million is fully guaranteed at signing, including a $30 million signing bonus and Cousins 2020 and 2021 base salaries. If Cousins in on the Vikings roster on the 3rd day of the 2021 league year his 2022 salary, which is currently guaranteed for injury, will become fully guaranteed. The move saved the Vikings $10 million in 2020 cap room.

 

[MplsGopher]

Look at

Look at the “contract notes” at this link:

https://overthecap.com/player/kirk-cousins/1443/


Contract Notes
Kirk Cousins signed a two year contract extension with the Vikings worth $66 million on March 16, 2020. Cousins at the time of signing had one year remaining on his old contract worth $30 million making the total package worth $96 million over three years. $61 million is fully guaranteed at signing, including a $30 million signing bonus and Cousins 2020 and 2021 base salaries. If Cousins in on the Vikings roster on the 3rd day of the 2021 league year his 2022 salary, which is currently guaranteed for injury, will become fully guaranteed. The move saved the Vikings $10 million in 2020 cap room.

So if I (finally) understand correctly ... the $35M 2022 salary isn't yet being counted as guaranteed, but one it does then that would make the dead cap for a 2022 cut/trade go from $10M to $45M?

And this was the going rate for a guy like Cousins?

 

[short ornery norwegian]

The Lions just announced that the team and QB Matthew Stafford have agreed to "pursue other options" for next year.

That will add another wrinkle to the game of musical QB chairs during the off-season.