All Things 2013 Bracketology Thread

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Gopher07 said:
Jerry Palm's latest bracket is out - we've moved up to a 7 seed following our win over Indiana:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Lunardi, on the other hand, has us at a 10 seed:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Click to expand...
Normally, you don't want that 7-10 seed, as if you win that first game, you draw a 1 or a two seed in round 2. This year with so much parity, it doesn't make as much difference.
I'd rather play some of the 1 or 2 seeds (Gonzaga, New Mexico, Arizona, Georgetown) than I would threes (Florida, Kansas, Michigan), even though the U can't play Michigan in Round 2.
 


Gopher07 said:
Jerry Palm's latest bracket is out - we've moved up to a 7 seed following our win over Indiana:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Lunardi, on the other hand, has us at a 10 seed:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Click to expand...
In the past I've looked at Lunardi as having a pretty good grasp on it but his seeding this year seems very off to me. I think he is giving teams too much credit for their conference records and not looking at the overall profile enough when it comes to seeding.
 

Here's what Coach Esposito tweeted today:

Minnesota Golden Gophers NCAA Tournament Bracketology Projection.. Make Tournament 99.6%, Most Likely Seed #5 (22.4%)
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A 5 seed seems really high to me I guess. Maybe if they win out? Win a game or two in the B1G tourney?
 

10 would be surprising assuming we win 2 of the last 3 here. Suddenly we're not in a funk, having a 3-8 stretch but we're a team that actually finished the season 6-5 and 3 of our last 4, not good, but not that bad either. I think that would get us a single digit seed at very minimum.
 

I think Espo nis factoring in how all the teams in the country are suppose to finish, the gophs will be favored in their final three games, plus the first rounf of the BTT. if they win their next four, a five seed is possible, but I still think we would need another conference win. I think will end up 7th when it's all said and done.
 



Lunardi only bumped us one seed for the win over IU. I can't really see the justification for Memphis, Illinois or Cincy being ahead of us at this point.
 

5 or 6 is perfectly reasonable if the gophers get to 10 conference wins, including BTT
 

Illinois

howeda7 said:
Lunardi only bumped us one seed for the win over IU. I can't really see the justification for Memphis, Illinois or Cincy being ahead of us at this point.
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Illinois has some nice wins; Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Indiana, and the Gophers. Their "worst loss" is to RPI #36 Missouri.
 

Section201 said:
Illinois has some nice wins; Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Indiana, and the Gophers. Their "worst loss" is to RPI #36 Missouri.
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They were spanked by Northwestern at home. We lsot a brutal one to them as well. Both bad losses, in my opinion.
 



From the Barn said:
5 or 6 is perfectly reasonable if the gophers get to 10 conference wins, including BTT
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Agreed. If we end the season as you suggest we will easily be a ranked team. By that parameter we should be looking at a 6 seed or better.
 

My Bad

Holy Man said:
They were spanked by Northwestern at home. We lsot a brutal one to them as well. Both bad losses, in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Ooops. You are correct. I also missed the Illinois loss at Purdue RPI #129.
 

bga1 said:
Agreed. If we end the season as you suggest we will easily be a ranked team. By that parameter we should be looking at a 6 seed or better.
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And hopefully by then our RPI will still be even higher than our AP ranking, so we might even get a better seed than what we should get going by our AP ranking.
 

Section201 said:
Ooops. You are correct. I also missed the Illinois loss at Purdue RPI #129.
Click to expand...

Illinois plays @Iowa and @Ohio State, they might be looking at 8-10 finish and on the bubble, I doubt they will have a higher seed than the Gophers, assuming the Gophers take car of business which is not a certainty.
 

I don't have any facts to back this up, but from just a vague memory, I don't remember #4/5 seeds ever getting very far in the tourney.

#3 seeds? Sure. #6 seeds?! Yeah, them too.


If we don't somehow get all the way up to a #3 seed, then I hope we get a #6 seed. But I suppose the reality is none of it matters if you DO, or don't show up to play. If this Gopher team shows up to play, will it really matter who we play?! If we don't show up to play, would it matter if we played a #16 seed?!

I have a good feeling about this season though, reminds me so much of 1989.
 

4 seeds don't get to the final four often.
They have a 4-13 matchup which is won by the #4 seed about 78% of the time. Then they face the 5-12 winner. That's an evenly matched game for a 2nd round game when the 5 seed prevails. Then, third round you are against that #1.
Anytime you face the #1 in the first three rounds, it stinks. Always prefer to be on the #2 seed half of the bracket with all the funky number seeds. (3-14, 6-11, 7,-10, 2-15). Nothing scares you about a #3 seed, and there a fair chance the #2 doesn't advance to the sweet sixteen.
 

I still feel like a 4 seed is the point when your first round opponent gets significantly worse. The 13 seeds, at least from my perception, seem to be the conference tourney winners of terrible conferences, whereas 11 and 12 seeds seem to be mid to lower tier power conference teams, at-larges that deserve to be there instead of "Well, the Sun Belt has to send someone to the tourney." As far as first round games, I would be more confident in getting a win as a 4 seed playing someone like Montana or North Dakota State, instead of as a 5 or 6 seed playing a team like Tennessee or Alabama, or heaven forbid Kentucky. I think we would beat Kentucky, but they have so much talent, maybe they just finally pull it together in the tournament (if they make it), and get to the Elite Eight as an 11 seed. Honestly not sure they'll make it though.

Anyway, from my perception, 4 seeds seem to have significantly easier first round opponents than 5 and 6 seeds do.
 

12's tend to be the last at-large teams. Those teams tend to be talented but inconsistent/underachieving, but could catch fire... But the 13's (and lower) are usually the good smaller conference teams that won their conference tournament. They're often older, skilled teams... I view a team like that as more of a threat to win one game, but the others, if they catch fire, could go further...

Plus, now it's weird with the play-in game of 12's. If you can win that game, you get some momentum in that you've technically won an NCAA tournament game. That can matter.

But by and large, seeds don't matter as much as teams do. Occasionally there's a far far superior team, like Kentucky last year, and you'd rather get a 10 than an 8 then. But I can't imagine there's a huge statistical significance between individual seeds (like a 4 and 5, for example)... I'm sure there's a slight statistical significance, but that is likely because better teams usually get higher seeds.
 




#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
I don't have any facts to back this up, but from just a vague memory, I don't remember #4/5 seeds ever getting very far in the tourney.

#3 seeds? Sure. #6 seeds?! Yeah, them too.
Click to expand...

Florida and Arizona both won national titles as #5 seeds.
 


Gopher07 said:
Lunardi still has us as a 10 seed: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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I am at the risk of sounding like a homer, which I rip others for, but to me a 10 seems a bit low at this point, although I would take that over a 8 or 9 without a doubt. I'd like to think that MN will find a way to get on that 6 line or the 5 line, which makes for a much better chance for 2nd weekend advancement...
 

Not only is it a bit low, it's the lowest.

Since yesterday, 57 brackets have been updated in the bracket matrix (http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm) - exactly three of them has us below an 8 seed. Two of those have us as a 9. Only Lunardi has us at a 10 seed.
 



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