All Things 2013 Bracketology Thread

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Gopher07 said:
I wonder what the conditions to hold on to a 5/6 seed would be. I imagine we would need at least 5 more wins this year (regular season and BTT). Four wins and we're looking more like a 7 seed IMO.
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Beating Ohio State or Indiana would be a step in the right direction towards a 5 seed.
 

Anybody know what seed the "Mock Selection Committee" gave the Gophers today? I saw Wisconsin got a 4 seed and Ohio State got a 6 seed. Curious to know where we ended up.
 

MadtownGopher said:
Anybody know what seed the "Mock Selection Committee" gave the Gophers today? I saw Wisconsin got a 4 seed and Ohio State got a 6 seed. Curious to know where we ended up.
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Here is a running twitter update from Adam Hoge.

https://twitter.com/adamhogecbs

Just happened to be on Minny when I saw it. Looks like they seeded us as a #6 seed in Lexington. But somehow Illinois is a #5 seed? Not sure how much I trust the validity of this process after seeing that.
 

Yeah, just saw this ...

Seth Davis ‏@SethDavisHoops
We darn near sent Minnesota to Lexington for first two rounds. Would have been a nice homecoming for Tubby!

So maybe we didn't get Lexington.
 

Adam Hoge ‏@AdamHogeCBS
In fact, Minnesota just got moved to Kansas City because its closer than Lexington. So that possible reunion in Lexington didn't matter.

Adam Hoge ‏@AdamHogeCBS
Because of bracketing rules preventing possible conference match ups, Minnesota has to drop to a 6-seed with Marquette getting a bump to 5.
 




SelectionSunday said:
Stay on course for the Road to Kansas City, Gophers. Beating Michigan would be a significant step in that direction.

Kansas is a lock for KC, they're going to run away with it in the Big 12, but it wouldn't hurt if Mizzou slipped to the point where they're not a shoo-in for KC. Michigan and/or Michigan State (if they have top-4 seed type seasons) are strong bets for Auburn Hills, and Indiana in all likelihood is headed to Lexington (or maybe Dayton?). Meaning, KC is wide open to get a Big Ten (Midwest) team.
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KU is not a shoe in to win the big 12 but more than likely will be in KC.
 





MadtownGopher said:
Crazy. Don't want to get my hopes up, but we'd be looking good if we can just split tO$U and IU.
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Agreed I was pretty suprised with Jerry Palm's projection, but a win against Ohio State and I think it would be near impossible to keep the Gophers out. Be nice to add another solid true road win to the resume with really the only game fitting under that category right now being the win at Illinois.
 

Do you know, looking at the Sagarin Ratings, UMn is 5-7 vs the Top 35.

If all you did was not count home losses to Top 5 teams or Road losses to Top 15 teams against them, they would be 5-2 vs the Top 35.

Yet some people think we're going to go 1-4 in the last 5 games.

Thing is, our two games this week, neither would count against us by the standards I mentioned before, a home loss to the #1 team, and a road loss to the #13 rated team.

Yet if we lose them both, some fans are going to be convinced we have no chance to win any of our last 3 games, cept MAYBE PSU.


I mean, yes, watching the games, its apparent there are some major flaws, in Tubby's coaching abilities, in the players abilities to execute.


But those issues seem to go away when we play teams like Nebraska at home. And those issues did not prevent us from beating Iowa and Wisconsin at home as well.


I think we should pack the house for the PSU game, show the team nothing but tons of love and appreciation, and show the coach some love, too. NO BOOING him or the players. Cheer them on and help them get that win, help them regain some confidence so that they can go to Nebraska and get a 2nd win a row, and then to Purdue for a 3rd win a row, so that they can go into the 1st day of the BTT, facing an inferior opponent, on a neutral court, and with the confidence to make it 4 wins in a row, and with all that, who knows what could transpire by day 2 of the BTT?!
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
Do you know, looking at the Sagarin Ratings, UMn is 5-7 vs the Top 35.

If all you did was not count home losses to Top 5 teams or Road losses to Top 15 teams against them, they would be 5-2 vs the Top 35.

Yet some people think we're going to go 1-4 in the last 5 games.

Thing is, our two games this week, neither would count against us by the standards I mentioned before, a home loss to the #1 team, and a road loss to the #13 rated team.

Yet if we lose them both, some fans are going to be convinced we have no chance to win any of our last 3 games, cept MAYBE PSU.


I mean, yes, watching the games, its apparent there are some major flaws, in Tubby's coaching abilities, in the players abilities to execute.


But those issues seem to go away when we play teams like Nebraska at home. And those issues did not prevent us from beating Iowa and Wisconsin at home as well.


I think we should pack the house for the PSU game, show the team nothing but tons of love and appreciation, and show the coach some love, too. NO BOOING him or the players. Cheer them on and help them get that win, help them regain some confidence so that they can go to Nebraska and get a 2nd win a row, and then to Purdue for a 3rd win a row, so that they can go into the 1st day of the BTT, facing an inferior opponent, on a neutral court, and with the confidence to make it 4 wins in a row, and with all that, who knows what could transpire by day 2 of the BTT?!
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We actually only play 1 game this week but I get your point that there is really only upside that can come from these next 2 games. Winning 1 or both of these games would really solidify our resume even though it is already pretty good. I am not one of the people that thinks the Gophers have no chance at Ohio State and will get beat by 20. Ohio State is actually a very similar team to us and can struggle to score at times just like us. The 2 biggest keys to me are can we limit the points and touches Deshaun Thomas gets and how does Andre handle the pressure he is gonna get from Craft, if we do well in those 2 areas then I think we have a very good chance of pulling this one out at Ohio State.
 




Goldy Gopher said:
Jerry Palm has Gophers as a #7 in todays bracketology.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
Joe Lunardi has Gophers as a #10 in todays bracketology, but has a few questionable teams in front of us IMO like UCLA, Oregon, NC State, and for the most part I think Palm's seeding looks more accurate.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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I would venture that is a difference in opinion between the two as to how much the committee will consider overall body of work vs. the recency of our significant struggles. It is probably tough for the bracketologists because I don't think they have too many examples to look at of teams that have fallen from top ten nationally to 6-8 coming off of back-to-back blowout losses.
 



Dayton a very real possibility if Gophers finish 8-10

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Are we at all in danger of playing in one of those ridiclous "64 teams isn't enough" play-in games?
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Assuming the Gophers finish 8-10 & don't win more than 1 BTT game, my hunch is our resume (as it pertains to bubble teams) will be too good for the Selection Committee to ignore, but they'll send us to Dayton for the First Four. All things considered, that would be more than fair given the Gophers' second half of the Big Ten season.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Assuming the Gophers finish 8-10 & don't win more than 1 BTT game, my hunch is our resume (as it pertains to bubble teams) will be too good for the Selection Committee to ignore, but they'll send us to Dayton for the First Four. All things considered, that would be more than fair given the Gophers' second half of the Big Ten season.
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My assumption is we'll get seeded lower than our resume would necessarily indicate compared to other bubble teams because of our slide. I wouldn't be surprised if we're in Dayton as well with an 8-10 finish.

Then again, they could just win tonight and change all perspective haha.
 

Locking things up

Minnesota: Maybe Tuesday will be the night Golden Gophers' fans end the pessimism about their NCAA tournament hopes. Taking down No. 1 Indiana is the type of win that will do that. It adds yet another marquee win to what has consistently been a very solid resume, one that includes wins over Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois -- and the No. 1 SOS in the country. The Gophers have dropped a few seed lines in recent weeks, but they're headed to the dance.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...es-minnesota-locks-things-up-with-indiana-win
 



So what's the potential range for our seeding now? I wonder how high we could go if we win out the regular season and win a couple in the B1G Tourney. Obviously everyone, fans included, needs to stay grounded and not let expectations get away from us. Let's go beat PSU first on Saturday. Every win counts.
 

Drake University Gopher said:
So what's the potential range for our seeding now? I wonder how high we could go if we win out the regular season and win a couple in the B1G Tourney. Obviously everyone, fans included, needs to stay grounded and not let expectations get away from us. Let's go beat PSU first on Saturday. Every win counts.
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If we finish 10-8 and win two games in the BTT I'd say we're a 5 seed. If we lose the rest of our games, probably an 11?

One of the more likely ones I see is finishing 9-9, one win in the BTT. I think we're a 7 seed with that (assuming the loss is not to PSU).
 

Yep, as I was saying, gotta think Dayton's out of the picture now :)
 

Looking at 86 different brackets, our average comes out to be 7.91. That was before our win over #1 Indiana.

I'd say this win will move us up to somewhere between 6.25 and 6.75. If we keep winning that average should slowly creep up and be about 6.00 as we start the BTT. Then I think that average jumps up a full seed for every win past the first round. So if we win 2 games, a 5 seed, if we win 3 games, a 4 seed with an outside shot of getting a 3 seed. If we win all 4 games, a 3 seed with an outside shot at getting a 2 seed. A lot depends on how the other Big Ten teams do from here on out and in the BTT, and then there are so many teams like Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, who have proven that they can lose games that they shouldn't, and whose resume's aren't all that strong when you really look closely. So a Big Ten team who wins 8 games in a row, and who would have anywhere from 6-8 signature wins by then could be seen to have earned a #2 seed?

But really, in a year like this year, there might not be much difference between getting a 2 and a 3 seed, or between getting a 4 and a 5 seed, which I think is the most realistic scenario.
 



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