Week 13 Bowl Projections Thread

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Two new predictions:

Action Network (a gambling site): Music City vs. Arkansas (they predict MN to be a 5.5 point dog)
Sporting News: Duke's Mayo vs. Wake Forest (which I don't think can happen, but whatever)

Action Network has Wisconsin in the Outback, PSU in Vegas, and Purdue in Guaranteed Rate btw.
 

The possibilities for an opponent in order of approximate likelihood:
Arkansas, Tennessee, Miss State, Texas A&M, Arizona State, UCLA, VA Tech, Virginia, Louisville, Miami, Boston College, Oregon State, Washington State, UNC, Missouri, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn.
 

USAF said:
Tennessee is a nobody. Nashville is a 3rd rate city. Nationwide, the Music City Bowl in some anonymous red state craphole gets no attention.

Give me UCLA in Vegas, baby. Lots more sizzle.
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I think Nashville is a very fun city but playing Tennessee there does very little if anything for us. Playing Arkansas or possibly even Mississippi State there would.

I do agree that beating UCLA in the Las Vegas bowl would give us a good boost, maybe just slightly less than Arkansas.
 

MGGopher said:
Two new predictions:

Action Network (a gambling site): Music City vs. Arkansas (they predict MN to be a 5.5 point dog)
Sporting News: Duke's Mayo vs. Wake Forest (which I don't think can happen, but whatever)

Action Network has Wisconsin in the Outback, PSU in Vegas, and Purdue in Guaranteed Rate btw.
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Sporting News has been doing that Minnesota to Mayo Bowl projection for at least a couple of weeks now. Maybe they know something we don't but I doubt it. If that did happen and we won the game, that should get us ranked.

Arkansas is ranked so if we meet them as a 5.5 underdog in the Music City Bowl and win that we would have a strong possibility of being ranked in the final top 25 as well.
 

Goldmember said:
The possibilities for an opponent in order of approximate likelihood:
Arkansas, Tennessee, Miss State, Texas A&M, Arizona State, UCLA, VA Tech, Virginia, Louisville, Miami, Boston College, Oregon State, Washington State, UNC, Missouri, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn.
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Arkansas, Miss State, Texas A&M would all be high quality wins where a victory against any one of them probably gets us in the final rankings. A victory over UCLA or Arizona State might give us a chance. Victories over the others don't do much for us.
 


cjbfbp said:
Sporting News has been doing that Minnesota to Mayo Bowl projection for at least a couple of weeks now. Maybe they know something we don't but I doubt it. If that did happen and we won the game, that should get us ranked.

Arkansas is ranked so if we meet them as a 5.5 underdog in the Music City Bowl and win that we would have a strong possibility of being ranked in the final top 25 as well.
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Yeah. Don’t really care who the team plays but honestly would like to see the BEST RATED opponent possible.

would like to see if the team can repeat the wisconsin game quality.
Would like the possibility of an end of season AP top 25 rank
 

Goldmember said:
The SEC already has a team in the Citrus Bowl. So how does that work?
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Cayman said:
Pretty sure he meant they'd swap a Big Ten team out for an ACC team, not an SEC team. I remember some rule about if a Big Ten team plays in the Orange Bowl, then the Citrus Bowl cannot take a Big Ten team, and I think they take an ACC team instead. But I believe that was for the last bowl cycle, not sure if that rule still applies to the current one.
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Whoops! Thanks for catching me there.

Yes, as Cayman said, they (Citrus) would swap out for an ACC team, if the Orange selects a Big Ten team as an at-large (so not years where the Orange is a semi, as is the case this year).


The deal with the Orange is that it has to (contractually) take an ACC team, like the Rose has to take Big Ten & PAC and Sugar has to take SEC & Big 12, in years that it is not a semi-final game.

But the other slot, unlike the Rose and Sugar, is an at-large, though that slot does have a quasi contractual obligation. In the 12 year period, it has to take the highest rated remaining Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame, and it must take an SEC team minimum 3 times, a Big Ten team minimum 3 times, and Notre Dame can be selected a maximum of twice.
 


Word said:
Average high for end of December for Nashville would be upper 40's or low 50's I think...
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Average December high is 51 and low is 32
Average January high is 47 and low is 29

So, shouldn't be any worse than the WI game was this year.
 



JWG said:
Average December high is 51 and low is 32
Average January high is 47 and low is 29

So, shouldn't be any worse than the WI game was this year.
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It can get colder than that in late December. I lived close to Nashville (less than an hour) for about a year. I experienced some December nights in the low or mid twenties.
 

cjbfbp said:
It can get colder than that in late December. I lived close to Nashville (less than an hour) for about a year. I experienced some December nights in the low or mid twenties.
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Or we could get lucky and get a day where it's 60... Last year on Dec. 30 it got up to 67 in Nashville (record is 72).
 

JWG said:
Average December high is 51 and low is 32
Average January high is 47 and low is 29

So, shouldn't be any worse than the WI game was this year.
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So basically the weather we have today.
 




I mean, yes, it could be above or below average in Nashville. Hard to plan for that other than knowing what average is and looking closer to the date. In an average year it should be ~45-50 during the game.

I also can't take these projects seriously since they don't seem to know which bowls we're eligible for.
 

Just a thought...Las Vegas loves Wisconsin from the standpoint of attendance. The times they played UNLV in LV, the town was flooded with red and white. Hotel/Casinos especially loved them. Big bucks always talk, especially in Las Vegas.
Hilarious true story of the time the heavily favored Badgers playing UNLV in Las Vegas were looking like they were not going to cover the spead. Suddenly during the game, a truck "accidentally" plows into a transformer causing a blackout and the game had to be stopped. Bets were refunded. The casinos avoided a huge loss on that game.
 

Tully55 said:
Hilarious true story of the time the heavily favored Badgers playing UNLV in Las Vegas were looking like they were not going to cover the spead. Suddenly during the game, a truck "accidentally" plows into a transformer causing a blackout and the game had to be stopped. Bets were refunded. The casinos avoided a huge loss on that game.
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Urban legend.

None of that is accurate.

Early reports of a truck severing a line were false. And for the record, WI was -7 or -7.5, and they were up 27-7 when the lights went out. They would have covered.

Also for the record, sports books suffering "huge losses" is exceedingly rare. And virtually never on a college football game. Books are really really good at NOT gambling on the outcome of sporting events. They let you and I gamble, they just handle our bet and keep the vig.
 
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USAF said:
Urban legend.

None of that is accurate.

Early reports of a truck severing a line were false. And for the record, WI was -7 or -7.5, and they were up 27-7 when the lights went out. They would have covered.

Also for the record, sports books suffering "huge losses" is exceedingly rare. And virtually never on a college football game. Books are really really good at NOT gambling on the outcome of sporting events. They let you and I gamble, they just handle our bet and keep the vig.
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Yes, an obvious urban legend disproved years ago. It is a story, amongst others, that casino employees who worked back then still like to tell, but usually with a wink and a nod.
 


My best-case pick: Las Vegas against UCLA. Decent bowl, prominent opponent, high expectations of strong Minnesota attendance. I can't think of another realistic bowl bid that would be any better using those criteria.
 


GoForGold said:
My best-case pick: Las Vegas against UCLA. Decent bowl, prominent opponent, high expectations of strong Minnesota attendance. I can't think of another realistic bowl bid that would be any better using those criteria.
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This, I think Vegas knows Minnesotans like Vegas just as much as Sconny fans as evidenced by Wild fans when we play the Gilden Knights.
 

I want Vegas or Outback. Music City is easily third. It’s way better than being in Detroit or NYC in December, but it can still get uncomfortably cool there.

I imagine Tennessee doesn’t want Nashville either. It’d be a home game, I guess, but I’d bet much of their fanbase would rather travel somewhere besides their backyard for a bowl game.
 

My hope is 1) Vegas 2) Outback 3) Guaranteed Rate 4) Music City 5) Pinstripe

I really don't think Outback is on the table, I think that's WI to go to and lose. If I were betting I'd say I'm 65% Nashville and 35% Vegas.

My guess:
1) Outback: WI
2) Vegas: PSU
3) Pinstripe: MD
4) Music City: MN
5) Guaranteed Rate: Purdue

I love both NYC and Nashville, but not end of December and in an outdoor stadium. I want warmth and a break from needing a jacket. Bowl games should not be outdoors in the north.
 

Some guy said:
Except the sun doesn’t go down at 415 that far south
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Dec. 30 the sunset in Nashville is 4:42.... not a ton later. Phoenix is 5:30. Tampa 5:45.
 

Speaking of which, only 20 more days until the shortest daylight of the year! (I think ...)
 

JWG said:
My hope is 1) Vegas 2) Outback 3) Guaranteed Rate 4) Music City 5) Pinstripe

I really don't think Outback is on the table, I think that's WI to go to and lose. If I were betting I'd say I'm 65% Nashville and 35% Vegas.

My guess:
1) Outback: WI
2) Vegas: PSU
3) Pinstripe: MD
4) Music City: MN
5) Guaranteed Rate: Purdue

I love both NYC and Nashville, but not end of December and in an outdoor stadium. I want warmth and a break from needing a jacket. Bowl games should not be outdoors in the north.
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Outback should be on the table, since we beat Wisconsin. But you're probably right that we won't get it. I too would prefer Guaranteed Rate to a cold weather bowl, prestige be damned.
 

Looking like this is a year where the top 12 teams in the final CFP rankings will actually be the ones going to the NY6 bowl games.

Only thing that could screw it up is if Okla State beats Baylor and gets into the top 4 and Baylor drops out of top 12.


So, would seem pretty safe that Mich, Ohio St, and Mich St will all go to the NY6.

Assuming Iowa will stay ranked in the top 25, and thus go to the Citrus, and that none of Minn, Wisc, Purdue, Penn St, or Maryland will be ranked.


I think at that point, it just comes down to whatever the order of selection those bowls have, and they get to pick from the five remaining teams/fanbases as they desire, purely subjectively.
 


Yahoo has what I think I will go with:

Citrus - Iowa

Outback - Minnesota
Music City - Purdue
Las Vegas - Wisconsin
Pinstripe - Penn St
Guaranteed - Maryland


If Outback has the first choice of the five, I could see them saying "we just had Minnesota two years ago, let's get someone else" -OR- "Minnesota traveled well two years ago, let's get them".

Makes sense Music City would want Purdue, just right north.

If Vegas picks next, I'm not sure which fanbase it will think gives it the most. Maybe Penn St, but maybe Wisc?

If Penn St is there for Pinstripe, that makes sense for them.

Guaranteed I think has last pick.
 

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