Week 13 Bowl Projections Thread



WriterGoph

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short ornery norwegian

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we've gone through this before.

the bowls are not obligated to follow the standings precisely. In previous years, Gophers got moved down the ladder because of perception that their fans "didn't travel well."

the bowls also like to avoid having the same teams back too often, so sometimes they will take a different team just to get someone new.

bottom line - no guarantee that MN is the #5 team in the pecking order. (or #4 if the B1G has a team in the playoffs.)
 




MGGopher

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It'll be fun to follow this today and in the coming week. Thanks for getting it started, Bleed! Lots of variables still, including the fact the bowls don't "pick" teams anymore -- the B1G hand places them. The biggest variables here are:
  • If Michigan beats Iowa, do they make the CFP? <--almost certainly yes
  • Does MSU get an at-large bid for a NYD6 bowl (which slides every other B1G team up a slot)? <--I'll say yes on this, but it depends how high they are in the rankings on Tuesday.
  • Does the B1G want to send MN back to the Outback just two years after their last appearance? <--I'm guessing no, but the B1G did "reset" their bowl cycle in 2020, so technically it wouldn't be a repeat since it's a new 6-year window.
  • If no to Outback, does the B1G feel OK with MN "jumping" Iowa and taking the Citrus? <--they did it in 2014, so there's precedent.
While it's tough to say, I don't see any way MN falls to the Pinstripe or Guaranteed Rate Bowl unless MSU doesn't get an at-large NYD6 bowl AND the B1G places all of Wisconsin, Purdue, and PSU over MN which seems unlikely. Music City seems to be the worst outcome at this point.
 

leib0039

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Even more of a reason to be Michigan fans next week! They win, make msu look better, everyone moves up, we play a New Years day bowl! Ohh and #WhoHatesIowa 😁
 




Some guy

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It'll be fun to follow this today and in the coming week. Thanks for getting it started, Bleed! Lots of variables still, including the fact the bowls don't "pick" teams anymore -- the B1G hand places them. The biggest variables here are:
  • If Michigan beats Iowa, do they make the CFP? <--almost certainly yes
  • Does MSU get an at-large bid for a NYD6 bowl (which slides every other B1G team up a slot)? <--I'll say yes on this, but it depends how high they are in the rankings on Tuesday.
  • Does the B1G want to send MN back to the Outback just two years after their last appearance? <--I'm guessing no, but the B1G did "reset" their bowl cycle in 2020, so technically it wouldn't be a repeat since it's a new 6-year window.
  • If no to Outback, does the B1G feel OK with MN "jumping" Iowa and taking the Citrus? <--they did it in 2014, so there's precedent.
While it's tough to say, I don't see any way MN falls to the Pinstripe or Guaranteed Rate Bowl unless MSU doesn't get an at-large NYD6 bowl AND the B1G places all of Wisconsin, Purdue, and PSU over MN which seems unlikely. Music City seems to be the worst outcome at this point.
Even if Michigan state doesn’t get a 3rd at large big to New Years 6, Iowa still could.
 

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WriterGoph

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And not even close to accurate mn will be big5

Haha. They're definitely not gonna be 7. Maybe Wiscy goes to Outback because we were just there. But there is a solid chance we play on NYD
 




WriterGoph

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It would be more fun to go to Vegas but the Pac 12 doesn't do much for me.

Playing a program with the history of Tennessee would be more intriguing.

Tough call. Maybe we catch a break and get back to Outback, but I feel like the national media will still be more enamored with Wisconsin.
 

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What's the packing order of big ten bowls?
I could maybe see music city wanting Purdue because it's really easy travel for them.
 

Face The Facts

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We deserve a rematch against Tennessee.

I'm still bitter about that 1986 Liberty Bowl.

We should have won it!

Lee Greenwood sang halftime. "From the lakes of Minnesota, to the Hills of Tennessee". He wore a Vols Jacket.

(18:00 Minute mark).



(I like our chances no matter who we matchup against this year).
 

cjbfbp

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Tough call. Maybe we catch a break and get back to Outback, but I feel like the national media will still be more enamored with Wisconsin.

Although I haven't heard much about it this season, a couple of years ago it was reported regularly that the conference strongly preferred mixing it up to repeat performances when it came to assigning bowl destinations. As I recall, the Big Ten conference demanded greater power from the bowls in assigning its teams to bowls. The Gophers went to the Outback two years ago so I doubt they would be assigned there if that conference preference is still true. Wisconsin hasn't been to the Outback since 2014.

I really think it's either Las Vegas or Music City.
 


WriterGoph

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Although I haven't heard much about it this season, a couple of years ago it was reported regularly that the conference strongly preferred mixing it up to repeat performances when it came to assigning bowl destinations. As I recall, the Big Ten conference demanded greater power from the bowls in assigning its teams to bowls. The Gophers went to the Outback two years ago so I doubt they would be assigned there if that conference preference is still true. Wisconsin hasn't been to the Outback since 2014.

I really think it's either Las Vegas or Music City.

Unfortunately Iowa hasn't been to the Citrus for many years - if ever - so you're probably right.
 

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Unfortunately Iowa hasn't been to the Citrus for many years - if ever - so you're probably right.
Best case for Minnesota (bowl wise) is:

Iowa wins big ten - Rose
Ohio state - New Years 6
Michigan - New Years 6
Michigan state - outback or New Years 6
Minnesota - citrus


that being said, go blue
 


MGGopher

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Jerry Palm has the Gophers in the Music City Bowl against Tennessee.

Ok so he DOES have MSU with an at large bid, but he's got both Wisconsin (Outback) and Purdue (Vegas) being placed above Minnesota. I can see it happening, but I wouldn't bet on it. Minnesota obviously beat both teams...
 

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Ok so he DOES have MSU with an at large bid, but he's got both Wisconsin (Outback) and Purdue (Vegas) being placed above Minnesota. I can see it happening, but I wouldn't bet on it. Minnesota obviously beat both teams...
Who is perceived to have the better traveling fan base? Us or Purdue? I would think it would be us.
 

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Ok so he DOES have MSU with an at large bid, but he's got both Wisconsin (Outback) and Purdue (Vegas) being placed above Minnesota. I can see it happening, but I wouldn't bet on it. Minnesota obviously beat both teams...

So the Vegas Bowl is technically above the Music City Bowl? I still feel like Music City is the more prestigious bowl. Plus you play an SEC opponent rather than Pac-12.
 

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Who is perceived to have the better traveling fan base? Us or Purdue? I would think it would be us.
Doesn’t really have as much to do with that anymore. But I would say us. Actually we probably have moved into the top half of the big ten traveling fan bases

1) Ohio state
2) Nebraska
3) iowa
4) wisconsin
5) Penn state
6) Michigan
7) Us or Michigan state

Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, northwestern clearly behind us.
 

MplsGopher

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How are we 7th in the Big Ten?

Michigan
Ohio State
Iowa
Mich St

Did I miss something?

We beat Purdue and Wiscy head on. Penn State finished 7-5.
100%

We are objectively #5.

Might even be able to make an argument for us jumping Iowa in the final CFP ranking, when they get destroyed by Michigan in Indy.
 


cjbfbp

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Ok so he DOES have MSU with an at large bid, but he's got both Wisconsin (Outback) and Purdue (Vegas) being placed above Minnesota. I can see it happening, but I wouldn't bet on it. Minnesota obviously beat both teams...

I read Palm's latest prediction. He did acknowledge that the conference has the primary power in bowl selection and may opt for some rearranging of his order.
 

cjbfbp

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So the Vegas Bowl is technically above the Music City Bowl? I still feel like Music City is the more prestigious bowl. Plus you play an SEC opponent rather than Pac-12.

According to published figures, the Music City does have a higher payout than the Las Vegas Bowl but the sources I saw could be using older figures.
 




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