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MNVCGUY said:
Clearly your mind is made up. Only thing I would say is that you are applying the information that we have today to decisions that had to be made months ago. Restrictions are lifting but it is going to be done in a slow methodical way as opposed to just flipping the switch.
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They only are doing this slow and methodical because they don't want to admit they were wrong. Hopefully the sun can shine and we can have a round of condemnation for the "experts" who produced wildly inaccurate computer models of millions of deaths. It's also a parable for us, whenever a government agency produces a scary computer model, be very skeptical. Computer models are not science, they are hypotheses almost always proven wrong.
 

Just relax. I hope we get football back. But it's far from the most important thing in the world. The world is taking the safe approach. We might look back and say it was overly cautious. But that's a hell of a lot better than the other outcome.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Clearly your mind is made up. Only thing I would say is that you are applying the information that we have today to decisions that had to be made months ago. Restrictions are lifting but it is going to be done in a slow methodical way as opposed to just flipping the switch.
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Agreed.

Also, the things he said in his post were made up BS with zero evidence. So there's that.
 

GoldenRodents said:
They only are doing this slow and methodical because they don't want to admit they were wrong. Hopefully the sun can shine and we can have a round of condemnation for the "experts" who produced wildly inaccurate computer models of millions of deaths. It's also a parable for us, whenever a government agency produces a scary computer model, be very skeptical. Computer models are not science, they are hypotheses almost always proven wrong.
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Sure thing.

It will probably help things if you hold up a giant sign at Gopher football games demanding that these "experts" be brought to justice for their crimes. Make sure you rent a loudspeaker for screaming it out at people passing by.
 

GoldenRodents said:
They only are doing this slow and methodical because they don't want to admit they were wrong. Hopefully the sun can shine and we can have a round of condemnation for the "experts" who produced wildly inaccurate computer models of millions of deaths. It's also a parable for us, whenever a government agency produces a scary computer model, be very skeptical. Computer models are not science, they are hypotheses almost always proven wrong.
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Machine learning models are very much based in science. It's in the name - computer science.
 


Nax5 said:
Machine learning models are very much based in science. It's in the name - computer science.
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Actually, computer models are great at prediction when the domain is well understood. Just look at the improvement of short term weather forecasts in the last 50 years.

But in vastly complex and unknown domains computer models are prone to be over-rated and used as political and economic bludgeons, see climate change and pandemics.
 

MplsGopher said:
Sure thing.

It will probably help things if you hold up a giant sign at Gopher football games demanding that these "experts" be brought to justice for their crimes. Make sure you rent a loudspeaker for screaming it out at people passing by.
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If you're going to be fantastically wrong, it's best to be in the majority.
 


As much as its awful not to have sports right now, i can wait. I bet a lot of the kids, if you asked, can also wait. Just because a bunch of bored (mostly) old men want to have back their favorite pastime, isn't a valid reason to be in a hurry to march a bunch of kids right back into the fray. The death rate is lower for young adults, not non-existent, and at their age, most of them still have vulnerable grandparents and older loves ones in their lives that are important to them.
 



It. Is. A. Game.

It. Is. For. Fun. And. Entertainment.

Many more important things to open and see what happens than a sport. You don't put people at risk for a game in this day and age.
 

WhoFellDownTheGopherHole? said:
As much as its awful not to have sports right now, i can wait. I bet a lot of the kids, if you asked, can also wait. Just because a bunch of bored (mostly) old men want to have back their favorite pastime, isn't a valid reason to be in a hurry to march a bunch of kids right back into the fray. The death rate is lower for young adults, not non-existent, and at their age, most of them still have vulnerable grandparents and older loves ones in their lives that are important to them.
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Yeah, and even if the death rate is lower for that demographic, getting the full blown wrath of this virus is horrible...a hell and back experience, based on the couple I know who have gone through it.
 

upnorthkid said:
It. Is. A. Game.

It. Is. For. Fun. And. Entertainment.

Many more important things to open and see what happens than a sport. You don't put people at risk for a game in this day and age.
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Like a cook book! ;)
 





Science is a method based on observation, meaning backward looking in time.

Models are a method of prediction, meaning forward looking in time.


The sentence "computer models are not science" is gobbledygook.


Here is one thing I will say: some human minds have a very powerful ability to put words together in a way that, doesn't make actual logical sense, but yet is capable of convincing other minds that those words are correct.

It is an interesting thing, that we're witnessing in hyper-drive these days.

Does it speak more to the "ability" of some people to fabricate specious arguments, or more to how easily some people allow themselves to be convinced of them?

I think the latter. And I think if you look a step more deeply at it than that, what you really see is a phenomena where a person wants to believe something, and they're looking for someone, anyone to just say what they were thinking -- then *poof* that justifies the belief. Just one other person saying it, is good enough.
 

MplsGopher said:
Science is a method based on observation, meaning backward looking in time.

Models are a method of prediction, meaning forward looking in time.

The sentence "computer models are not science" is gobbledygook.
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How about this...

"Computer models based on repeatable observations are valid science."

Here is an unimpeachable observation, computer models of mysterious domains used as political bludgeons are pseudo-science.
 


GoldenRodents said:
How about this...

"Computer models based on repeatable observations are valid science."
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So when experts were trying to come up with models at the start of the pandemic in the US, with no prior observations having ever existing on how people would behave under lockdown orders ....... how would it be possible to base the model on observations?
 

When they come around and end this foolish errand (probably in a couple weeks), will they have an extended Summer camp for the football team?
 


GoldenRodents said:
I know the ship can't turn on a dime, but the shutdowns were the result of panic over worst case scenarios...that this was virulent and lethal virus for all who came in contact. It is not, it picks of the old and weak, while millions get infected without realizing it.

The infectious disease establishment has rejected decades of epidemic theory by promoting the mass lock downs based on horribly exaggerated computer models. In doing so they have slowed the natural vaccine of herd immunity.

Our politicians and bureaucrats are in major CYA mode, that's why they are slow-walking the reopening.

One good thing that will come of this is that we should be ready the next time with enough PPE to protect the nurses and doctors.

Meanwhile, starting up sports is really an important though symbolic way we can start to steer out of this clusterf*ck.
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There has never been even close to a consensus as to what the proper actions should be in these kinds of situations. A study in 2007 about the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic showed that early intervention lowered the peak by a lot and saved lives. Places like Seattle shut down businesses and had much stricter orders than we'd ever see now. People point to Sweden and that very well may be the best strategy for this but we still don't know for sure. It certainly makes sense to hold off on things like spring practice until we have a better idea.

www.pnas.org

Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) intended to reduce infectious contacts between persons form an integral part of plans to mitigate the impact of the next influenza pandemic. Although the potential benefits of NPIs are supported by mathematical models, the historical evidence for the impact...
www.pnas.org www.pnas.org
 

GophersInIowa said:
There has never been even close to a consensus as to what the proper actions should be in these kinds of situations. A study in 2007 about the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic showed that early intervention lowered the peak by a lot and saved lives. Places like Seattle shut down businesses and had much stricter orders than we'd ever see now. People point to Sweden and that very well may be the best strategy for this but we still don't know for sure. It certainly makes sense to hold off on things like spring practice until we have a better idea.

www.pnas.org

Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) intended to reduce infectious contacts between persons form an integral part of plans to mitigate the impact of the next influenza pandemic. Although the potential benefits of NPIs are supported by mathematical models, the historical evidence for the impact...
www.pnas.org www.pnas.org
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Sweden is unique, and anecdotal in a lot of ways.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com
 

PMWinSTP said:
Sweden is unique, and anecdotal in a lot of ways.
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The virus is lethal for a significant number of those with weak immune systems.

Look at cruise ships, aircraft carriers, Spring Break, NY subways, densely populated aging Mediterranean cities. When it hits an unprotected population it spreads like wildfire and takes out the vulnerable. But the vast majority are exposed and survive, most with mild or no symptoms.

So in the early stages it racks up many deaths, but if the vulnerable can hide, the healthy population will quickly build up immunity...it would happen faster if our safety cult politicians would open up the economy while using their public health messaging to instruct the vulnerable to shelter in place and stay away from the young and healthy.
 


GoldenRodents said:
The virus is lethal for a significant number of those with weak immune systems.

Look at cruise ships, aircraft carriers, Spring Break, NY subways, densely populated aging Mediterranean cities. When it hits an unprotected population it spreads like wildfire and takes out the vulnerable. But the vast majority are exposed and survive, most with mild or no symptoms.

So in the early stages it racks up many deaths, but if the vulnerable can hide, the healthy population will quickly build up immunity...it would happen faster if our safety cult politicians would open up the economy while using their public health messaging to instruct the vulnerable to shelter in place and stay away from the young and healthy.
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Sweden is not densely populated, which makes its numbers jump out, especially compared to its neighboring Scandinavian countries. It also has tested its population at a rate of nearly half that of the US.

www.vox.com

Has Sweden found the best response to the coronavirus? Its death rate suggests it hasn’t.

Sweden’s coronavirus death toll is worse than America’s but better than New York City’s.
www.vox.com www.vox.com
 

GoldenRodents said:
I think I could convince you face to face, unless you have a case of terminal ideological possession.
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This is really the kind of stuff you wanna be putting out into the world right now? You really think if Fleck came on here and actually read your pleas, he'd be like "Yeah, this guy is right." He'd more likely ask you to find a different team to cheer for. Damn dude.
 

Nax5 said:
This is really the kind of stuff you wanna be putting out into the world right now? You really think if Fleck came on here and actually read your pleas, he'd be like "Yeah, this guy is right." He'd more likely ask you to find a different team to cheer for. Damn dude.
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I'm pretty sure Fleck agrees that the following risk is worth taking. He is not going to say or do anything out of his pay scale...

hospitalization-rates.JPG
 

GoldenRodents said:
I'm pretty sure Fleck agrees that the following risk is worth taking. He is not going to say or do anything out of his pay scale...

View attachment 7826
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Just a rough estimation based on that chart indicates 5-6% of all people would need to be hospitalized. Those numbers are quite staggering if true. If those are accurate, I think any sane person would support some level of lockdown. I am hopeful the actual hospitalization rates are much lower than that.
 

With Iowa starting practice on June 1, I would expect the Gophers to so the same.
 

Pete smith said:
With Iowa starting practice on June 1, I would expect the Gophers to so the same.
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www.usatoday.com

Iowa president says football practice is planned for June 1

University of Iowa president Bruce Harreld told Board of Regents that June 1 is the date the Hawkeyes football team will return to practice.
www.usatoday.com

Here is a USA today story about the plan to start practices. I would assume that this is a plan being discussed by all Big Ten schools. If it does work out that teams are able to get back to practicing in early June I would say that would greatly improve the odds of the season starting on time.

But how to handle the fan issue will still be a major point of discussion.
 

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