Official 2021 Gophers Football Recruiting Updates Thread: Links, Tweets, Videos etc

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I'm not sure I'd define "stars" as "true freshmen who start". That seems like a really big ask. I'm not sure even the top programs regularly have 4-5 true freshman starting every year.
Right so, as I said, if you ideally have only year 2 - year 5 players starting, that just needs 5-6 "star players" per class to fill out a 22. To fill out a 44 is then "only" 10-12 "star to good players" per class, on average.

It's just restating a captain obvious thing: you don't need all 20-25 players per class to pan out.
 

Yeah. The recruiting thing is important from the standpoint that you can compete...
But the difference between the 2nd or 3rd best class in the big ten and the 8th is 3-4 guys being seen as better or worse than 3-4 other guys.
meanwhile the 3-4 guys may or may not be good fits for the system they entered.


You have to be good enough at recruiting to be in the mix and then you have to develop the talent you have better than others.

The team rankings are pretty useless. They are in large part based on the sheer number of recruits you have in your class. Only way team rankings would really be useful is if they were done a few years later. Find out how many kids panned out how many transferred or dropped out.

The important thing to me in recruiting is that we are getting guys that can legit compete at the power 5 level. Good indication of that is usually whether or not other power 5 programs are also recruiting a kid. After that it is all about finding the right fit and development.
 

The team rankings are pretty useless. They are in large part based on the sheer number of recruits you have in your class. Only way team rankings would really be useful is if they were done a few years later. Find out how many kids panned out how many transferred or dropped out.

The important thing to me in recruiting is that we are getting guys that can legit compete at the power 5 level. Good indication of that is usually whether or not other power 5 programs are also recruiting a kid. After that it is all about finding the right fit and development.
I agree.

It’s less about where you rank and more about who you got and what ballpark of teams you’re in in the rankings
 

It would be interesting to do a rolling 4 (or 5) year team recruiting ranking, which would even out the variability of class size from year to year, and could omit those who transferred out from the ranking (or add those who transferred in).

That could provide a perspective in any particular year to compare teams’ on field success versus their aggregate 4-5 years of recruiting prior to that year.

Schools that sign 23-25 every year but have a lot of attrition rank higher than those who sign 18-20 but actually keep and develop their players.
 

It would be interesting to do a rolling 4 (or 5) year team recruiting ranking, which would even out the variability of class size from year to year, and could omit those who transferred out from the ranking (or add those who transferred in).

That could provide a perspective in any particular year to compare teams’ on field success versus their aggregate 4-5 years of recruiting prior to that year.

Schools that sign 23-25 every year but have a lot of attrition rank higher than those who sign 18-20 but actually keep and develop their players.
I’m pretty sure they do this and Maryland is the paper tiger every year
 


It would be interesting to do a rolling 4 (or 5) year team recruiting ranking, which would even out the variability of class size from year to year, and could omit those who transferred out from the ranking (or add those who transferred in).

That could provide a perspective in any particular year to compare teams’ on field success versus their aggregate 4-5 years of recruiting prior to that year.

Schools that sign 23-25 every year but have a lot of attrition rank higher than those who sign 18-20 but actually keep and develop their players.

Scott Frost be all "NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!"
 

boy, if you could just take your recruiting rankings, throw them out on the field, and decide the game based on that, it would save a lot of time.

but, unfortunately, you don't get to do that. you have to put players out on the field and let them play the game. And players, being human, are going to make mistakes. some of them will surprise you. others will disappoint you.

It's far from a perfect science.

speaking strictly from the eye test, Fleck seems to be bringing in better athletes.

but in the end, you still have to put them out on the field and let them play the game. and once they blow the whistle and the game starts, no one is asking how many stars or dots they had. the only thing that matters is making plays.
 

It would be interesting to do a rolling 4 (or 5) year team recruiting ranking, which would even out the variability of class size from year to year, and could omit those who transferred out from the ranking (or add those who transferred in).

That could provide a perspective in any particular year to compare teams’ on field success versus their aggregate 4-5 years of recruiting prior to that year.

Schools that sign 23-25 every year but have a lot of attrition rank higher than those who sign 18-20 but actually keep and develop their players.
Or you could just look at the cumulative ratings of the two-deep that season. Perhaps weighted by how much relative time the starter is on the field vs the backup in the rotation (sort've like weighted by minutes in basketball). This would be possibly more difficult to compile though.
 

Theory...
  • Recruits from down south, specifically Texas, are continually over-rated and get more stars than they deserve.
  • Recruits from the Midwest are continually under-rated and produce far more than their ratings predict.
Is there any data to say ya or nay to my theory?
 



Theory...
  • Recruits from down south, specifically Texas, are continually over-rated and get more stars than they deserve.
  • Recruits from the Midwest are continually under-rated and produce far more than their ratings predict.
Is there any data to say ya or nay to my theory?
Not across the board, but I tend to agree that midwest players tend to be late bloomers as many have not played as much football. There are still a lot of kids in MN that don't play any tackle football until 7th or 8th grade.
 

Kill and Claeys landed a total of... (checks notes) .... two 4-stars.

Well, that's not even close to accurate.

4-Stars under Kill/Claeys

2011: Tommy Olson (ESPN)
2012: Isaac Hayes (ESPN), Jamel Harbison (ESPN), Andre McDonald (ESPN)
2014: Jeff Jones (247, ESPN, Rivals), Melvin Holland, Jr. (ESPN)
2015: Dior Johnson (Rivals)
2016: Carter Coughlin (247, ESPN, Rivals), Seth Green (ESPN)

So in reality, it was nine 4-stars - not two.
 

Not across the board, but I tend to agree that midwest players tend to be late bloomers as many have not played as much football. There are still a lot of kids in MN that don't play any tackle football until 7th or 8th grade.
I guess what I would like to know is: how many people does 247 actually employ that watch film and evaluate kids? And how "expert" are those people?

Some number recruits, they absolutely do evaluate their game film every year. But what is that number?

To put it explicitly: I just wonder if there isn't some good chunk of kids every year whose film they "don't get to" and thus whose rating then defaults to being a direct relation to whom has offered?
 

Well, that's not even close to accurate.

4-Stars under Kill/Claeys

2011: Tommy Olson (ESPN)
2012: Isaac Hayes (ESPN), Jamel Harbison (ESPN), Andre McDonald (ESPN)
2014: Jeff Jones (247, ESPN, Rivals), Melvin Holland, Jr. (ESPN)
2015: Dior Johnson (Rivals)
2016: Carter Coughlin (247, ESPN, Rivals), Seth Green (ESPN)

So in reality, it was nine 4-stars - not two.

Two quick thoughts:

-- I'm guessing the "two 4-stars" comment was based on 247's composite rankings - which is where I got the five for the 2021 class from.

-- What a horrible ROI on that list of 4-stars from the Kill/Claeys era. Wow. I had never seen that list but basically only 33% of them ever even contributed (Olson, Coughlin and Green). It will be interesting to look back on these upcoming 4-stars in 4-5 years and see how they fleshed out
 



Two quick thoughts:

-- I'm guessing the "two 4-stars" comment was based on 247's composite rankings - which is where I got the five for the 2021 class from.

-- What a horrible ROI on that list of 4-stars from the Kill/Claeys era. Wow. I had never seen that list but basically only 33% of them ever even contributed (Olson, Coughlin and Green). It will be interesting to look back on these upcoming 4-stars in 4-5 years and see how they fleshed out
I know, he has the wildcat/"Green line" thing. Kudos to Fleck and staff for making that work for him, so at least we got something.

Quite obvious the kid is a physical specimen, pound for pound. But also guessing ...
- he can't block, so he can't be a TE
- he's too big and thus not fast enough to be a true wide out
- he could be an "inside" receiver, but then he'd just be a glorified TE who can't block, and slower than a true slot receiver
- obviously too tall and not quick enough to be a RB
- the position he was supposed to be, a so-called "duel threat" QB ... well he can run I'm sure, and I'm sure he looks like a million bucks rolling out and throwing some darts around the field on air .... but just not all the rest of it.

Like I said, just guessing. But why is it likely a good guess? Because if these things weren't true, he would've played a lot more than he has (which is very little).
 

Well, that's not even close to accurate.

4-Stars under Kill/Claeys

2011: Tommy Olson (ESPN)
2012: Isaac Hayes (ESPN), Jamel Harbison (ESPN), Andre McDonald (ESPN)
2014: Jeff Jones (247, ESPN, Rivals), Melvin Holland, Jr. (ESPN)
2015: Dior Johnson (Rivals)
2016: Carter Coughlin (247, ESPN, Rivals), Seth Green (ESPN)

So in reality, it was nine 4-stars - not two.

As Writer noted that is a really ugly list of 4-star players with the exceptions of Olson, Coughlin, and Green. And even in the case of Green, we have found a nice niche use for him but if we were really viewing him as a potential 4 star QB he would be nowhere close to living up to that.
 

As Writer noted that is a really ugly list of 4-star players with the exceptions of Olson, Coughlin, and Green. And even in the case of Green, we have found a nice niche use for him but if we were really viewing him as a potential 4 star QB he would be nowhere close to living up to that.
However, the coaches who recruited him to play quarterback are no longer here. Their plans in their system would have given him a completely different opportunity. So we don't know.
But, I know this: In early open practices Green fit in with many of the previous regimes QB recruits...he was not a very accurate passer.
 

We have already discussed this a ton on this board already, but Fleck's first recruiting class was largely keeping recruits committed and only bringing in a few recruits. The next class he only had one cycle to recruit. The Empire Class helped Fleck have a great year last year and that helped Fleck to shine. A true representation will be what we see in the next two years as Fleck's we get rid of the "year zero" recruits.
Coming in as a new coach in January makes recruiting difficult. But Fleck didn't hold on to many U of M recruits. He released them all except for those from Minnesota (five or six). He convinced many of his Western Michigan recruits to come with him, if that's what you mean by holding on to them.
 

Two quick thoughts:

-- I'm guessing the "two 4-stars" comment was based on 247's composite rankings - which is where I got the five for the 2021 class from.

-- What a horrible ROI on that list of 4-stars from the Kill/Claeys era. Wow. I had never seen that list but basically only 33% of them ever even contributed (Olson, Coughlin and Green). It will be interesting to look back on these upcoming 4-stars in 4-5 years and see how they fleshed out
Welcome to reality, the star rating is based on the number of schools that are interested in a player, they will get a higher star rating if larger schools are on the list. It can be regional, many programs will recruit from power HS programs. Wentz, did not even have a star rating out of HS. Most top Minnesota kids will get a 2 star rating unless P5 programs are recruiting them. Minnesota's 247 representative is not very involved, unlike many other states.
 

Welcome to reality, the star rating is based on the number of schools that are interested in a player, they will get a higher star rating if larger schools are on the list. It can be regional, many programs will recruit from power HS programs. Wentz, did not even have a star rating out of HS. Most top Minnesota kids will get a 2 star rating unless P5 programs are recruiting them. Minnesota's 247 representative is not very involved, unlike many other states.

Soooo...not really sure what point you're making?

It's already been well-established that PJ is getting not only more higher-rated kids than we have before, but also beating out more P5 programs for kids than previous regimes.

I guess if you wanted to strengthen the argument that Fleck is doing a really nice job with recruiting, then you succeeded!

I've been enjoying reality for a bit now. Thanks!
 

As long as it translates into winning it really does not matter what the kids ratings are.
 

Ryan Burns Tweet early Friday night:

BREAKING: I can confirm the #Gophers have received a commitment from Abilene Christian graduate transfer linebacker Jack Gibbens (@johngibbens18). Gibbens totaled 258 career tackles in his 4-year career at ACU, including 22 for loss. January enrollee.

Listed as 6'3" - 240lbs.

Abilene Christian is an FCS School in the Southland Conference.
 

Due to Covid, did several of the recruits even play football this year? I know the QB recruit has not played in the last two years, as he injured his left shoulder last year and was out, the year before he got a stinger.

Am I the only one who's worried about this? The QB recruit is coming off an injury, not playing for another year due to COVID, and is suddenly going to be able to get into game shape? If we thought the current Freshman were having trouble, how much trouble will he have?
 

M
Am I the only one who's worried about this? The QB recruit is coming off an injury, not playing for another year due to COVID, and is suddenly going to be able to get into game shape? If we thought the current Freshman were having trouble, how much trouble will he have?
Morgan is a junior, so there is still another year of development for the QB’s. There are 3 other QB’s on the roster. Not worried about that position.
 

Not across the board, but I tend to agree that midwest players tend to be late bloomers as many have not played as much football. There are still a lot of kids in MN that don't play any tackle football until 7th or 8th grade.
And, football isn't year around here like in other states. Many states have spring ball for HS. Mason has talked about this a lot. He says, Midwest type kids have higher ceilings--compared to year around state players--b/c they're likely not as polished due to the lack of coaching opportunities throughout their HS careers.

Obviously, he is talking about similarly rated/skilled players from those states.
 
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M

Morgan is a junior, so there is still another year of development for the QB’s. There are 3 other QB’s on the roster. Not worried about that position.
Right no worry, your 17 year old #1 recruit for your 2021 class has not played Foosball in 2 years.
 

Ryan Burns Tweet early Friday night:

BREAKING: I can confirm the #Gophers have received a commitment from Abilene Christian graduate transfer linebacker Jack Gibbens (@johngibbens18). Gibbens totaled 258 career tackles in his 4-year career at ACU, including 22 for loss. January enrollee.

Listed as 6'3" - 240lbs.

Abilene Christian is an FCS School in the Southland Conference.
I think he will be a nice player and help calm our defense next year. Going into year 5 of PJ I'm disappointed that they will be starting a FCS grad transfer at LB. It's what needed to be done and I hope it helps the young LBs grow. Jaydon Hood still needs to be a top target as he won't sign until the second signing day for football. Overall great add, not super fast but he can tackle and take the correct angles to the ball.
 
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Right no worry, your 17 year old #1 recruit for your 2021 class has not played Foosball in 2 years.

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or still butthurt about your kid/nephew/buddy. QB should not be a major concern
Next season

Morgan R-Sr
Annexstad R-Jr
Kramer R-So
Clark R-So
Kaliakmanis Fr

Probably some of the best depth (numbers wise) I've seen in my time as a Gopher fan. (Except the year Mason took like 5 QBs in one class lol)

Even if any combination of 2 QB left for some reason (minus both TM and ZA) I think the Gophers would be okay depth wise next year.
 
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Illinois pushed their high school season out to the spring. So to everyone concerned about Kaliakmanis not playing in 2 years, he will play in the spring I believe. And then he'll have at least one year to learn under Morgan. So no, I'm not real worried about that. He's the real deal.
 

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