HS Football Update - sort of

[Gophers_4life]

Enrollment or "enrollment" are BS ways to gauge the strength of a high school football program, to boot.

Park Center and Coon Rapids probably have "enrollment" around 1300 and 1700 or so? Thinking their football teams would get destroyed by Hutchinson, with "enrollment" around 800 or so?

https://www.mshsl.org/sites/default...ollments by Alpha_2023-2024 and 2024-2025.pdf

 

[Some guy]

Enrollment or "enrollment" are BS ways to gauge the strength of a high school football program, to boot.

Park Center and Coon Rapids probably have "enrollment" around 1300 and 1700 or so? Thinking their football teams would get destroyed by Hutchinson, with "enrollment" around 800 or so?

https://www.mshsl.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/csp_Enrollments by Alpha_2023-2024 and 2024-2025.pdf

It’s a dumb way but it may be the least dumb way.
Some states are trying some different things.

 

[Gopherwatcher]

Enrollment or "enrollment" are BS ways to gauge the strength of a high school football program, to boot.

Park Center and Coon Rapids probably have "enrollment" around 1300 and 1700 or so? Thinking their football teams would get destroyed by Hutchinson, with "enrollment" around 800 or so?

https://www.mshsl.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/csp_Enrollments by Alpha_2023-2024 and 2024-2025.pdf

So you would be in favor of something like promotion and relegation like the soccer leagues in Europe? I believe that some states have a "success" factor that applies to their class placement. I don't know the specifics on any of that.

 

[Gophers_4life]

So you would be in favor of something like promotion and relegation like the soccer leagues in Europe? I believe that some states have a "success" factor that applies to their class placement. I don't know the specifics on any of that.

Sure! Almost anything would be better than how it is done now, I have to imagine.

 

[MaxyJR1]

Sure! Almost anything would be better than how it is done now, I have to imagine.

30 years ago MN demographics were all about football and section play against rivals of similar size made sense. Now those same communities are so different in size, demographics and the number of sports they provide. I agree it is time to try something new. Reality is that 70+% of the games every week are complete blow-outs. Not sure there really is a cure for it. It really should be based on the number of kids you have out for football, but that might be a tough scheduling timeline.

 

[disco]

Wayzata's Schedule:
Lakeville South
Minnetonka
Shakopee
Edina
Eden Prairie
Prior Lake
Hopkins
Anoka

So at least we play four of our Lake Conference members. I assume that Hopkins game will be brutal. Looking at some of the other 6A teams, it looks like the schedules are a lot better this year.

Edit.
Looking at schedules for some of the "relief" teams, they don't seem to be complete?

 

[Some guy]

Wayzata's Schedule:
Lakeville South
Minnetonka
Shakopee
Edina
Eden Prairie
Prior Lake
Hopkins
Anoka

So at least we play four of our Lake Conference members. I assume that Hopkins game will be brutal. Looking at some of the other 6A teams, it looks like the schedules are a lot better this year.

Edit.
Looking at schedules for some of the "relief" teams, they don't seem to be complete?

The 6 relief teams are:
Buffalo
Hopkins
Eastview
Burnsville
Park
Roseville

Their schedules are to play each other (5).
And 3 of the 6 teams from their section.

It’s done. Some teams may not have posted it.


The west, south, and east non relief teams play:
5 from the section (non relief)
1 of the 2 relief from the section
2 random from outside of the section

The north plays:
All the other 7 in the section.
1 random from another section.
No teams from the north took relief.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Wayzata's Schedule:
Lakeville South
Minnetonka
Shakopee
Edina
Eden Prairie
Prior Lake
Hopkins
Anoka

So at least we play four of our Lake Conference members. I assume that Hopkins game will be brutal.

At least for football -- which is obviously what this is all about, since conferences persist for all other sports -- Wayzata and Minnetonka should no more be playing Hopkins than they should be playing St Louis Park.

 

[Some guy]

At least for football -- which is obviously what this is all about, since conferences persist for all other sports -- Wayzata and Minnetonka should no more be playing Hopkins than they should be playing St Louis Park.

Minnetonka has gone 0-9 as recently as 2019
Last time they played Hopkins they won 28-27
The time before that they won 34-28


The problem isn’t that Hopkins is playing wayzata or Minnetonka.
The problem is they’re playing wayzata AND Minnetonka and not playing St. Louis park.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Minnetonka has gone 0-9 as recently as 2019
Last time they played Hopkins they won 28-27
The time before that they won 34-28


The problem isn’t that Hopkins is playing wayzata or Minnetonka.
The problem is they’re playing wayzata AND Minnetonka and not playing St. Louis park.

Why is Wayzata not capitalized?

 

[Some guy]

Why is Wayzata not capitalized?

No idea. Must not spell it enough

 

[Gophers_4life]

Oh, I thought you were doing a thing where like some posters refuse to capitalize Wisconsin out of spite/hate

 

[disco]

Minnetonka has gone 0-9 as recently as 2019
Last time they played Hopkins they won 28-27
The time before that they won 34-28


The problem isn’t that Hopkins is playing wayzata or Minnetonka.
The problem is they’re playing wayzata AND Minnetonka and not playing St. Louis park.

One of the issues is that in terms of enrollment*, Minnetonka and Wayzata are SO much larger than the next crop of large schools in the state. Hopkins, in terms of enrollment is at the low end of the 6A schools - it's relatively close in size to Andover and Moorhead for example which are 5A. There has to be some kind of a cutoff however and where do you place that?

Also, this is really only about football. Hopkins and Park Center (which I suspect would be 6A if not for enrollment) are obviously basketball powers. Should teams be rewarded just because they can't field a competent football program despite their size?

* enrollment obviously referring to the flawed system the MSHSL uses to determine placement.

 

[Gophers_4life]

One of the issues is that in terms of enrollment*, Minnetonka and Wayzata are SO much larger than the next crop of large schools in the state. Hopkins, in terms of enrollment is at the low end of the 6A schools - it's relatively close in size to Andover and Moorhead for example which are 5A. There has to be some kind of a cutoff however and where do you place that?

Also, this is really only about football. Hopkins and Park Center (which I suspect would be 6A if not for enrollment) are obviously basketball powers. Should teams be rewarded just because they can't field a competent football program despite their size?

* enrollment obviously referring to the flawed system the MSHSL uses to determine placement.

Enrollment (either raw or formula) is bunk. So many different factors that go beyond it.

At the end of the day, as many have commented, competitiveness is and what should matter more than anything.


I have to think you could simply have a committee that could watch some games and just place teams in classes based on this.



And yes agree 100%, this discussion is all about football. I doubt there are any issues in any other sport at least that people care so passionately about.

Maybe hockey there are some odd cases as well, where certain teams should be forced to play up.

 

[Some guy]

One of the issues is that in terms of enrollment*, Minnetonka and Wayzata are SO much larger than the next crop of large schools in the state. Hopkins, in terms of enrollment is at the low end of the 6A schools - it's relatively close in size to Andover and Moorhead for example which are 5A. There has to be some kind of a cutoff however and where do you place that?

Also, this is really only about football. Hopkins and Park Center (which I suspect would be 6A if not for enrollment) are obviously basketball powers. Should teams be rewarded just because they can't field a competent football program despite their size?

* enrollment obviously referring to the flawed system the MSHSL uses to determine placement.

For sure


But I disagree there has to be a cutoff for regular season scheduling.
Obviously there does for playoff classification.
Minnetonka and Wayzata need games…but what if:
What if Hopkins could play Armstrong, Cooper, St. Louis park, Jefferson, park center, wayzata, Buffalo, and Minnetonka.


My issue is that they are creating a cut line where if you’re in the top 32 (or some years 30) that basically are saying you’re the only people in the state that is stuck always being the smallest fish in your pond.

My point more is, in the regular season, let the bottom of 6a play in multiple ponds.



Right now with the way the schedule is built there are 128 regular season losses guaranteed for 32 teams. And when you consider Stillwater, lakeville south, rosemount, maple grove, and Eden prairie combine for 5 losses in the regular season.
That means there are 123 losses for 27 teams. That’s 4.5 losses per team. The model of containing the top 32 to playing just each other means you’re basically creating an environment where mathematically a bunch of large schools HAVE to be bad at football.

In other classes there are more teams. There are games between teams in different classes.
Mathematically there have to be teams that lose a lot of games by nature of there not being ties…however, 6a is the only place where the regular season schedule causes you to look at 20 teams and say, yup, you 20 are going to take 110 losses.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Who were the main drivers to make it so that (even bottom of) 6A are not allowed to schedule 5A in the regular season?

Did the 5A schools push for it?

 

[disco]

Enrollment (either raw or formula) is bunk. So many different factors that go beyond it.

At the end of the day, as many have commented, competitiveness is and what should matter more than anything.


I have to think you could simply have a committee that could watch some games and just place teams in classes based on this.

Do you change that year to year?

Some programs tend to be good almost every year. Wayzata, Eden Prairie, Stillwater, Maple Grove etc.

Some programs have a really good year out of nowhere. Forest Lake being ranked in the top ten last season after being a historically bad program for 20+ years.

Some former powerhouses have fallen way off. Burnsville, Anoka, Park Center, Apple Valley come to mind.

 

[Some guy]

Who were the main drivers to make it so that (even bottom of) 6A are not allowed to schedule 5A in the regular season?

Did the 5A schools push for it?

I’m not actually sure about it.
6a as a playoff class was created for the Rochesters/Brainerd type schools that couldn’t really compete with the big metro schools anymore

District scheduling was created because some schools were having trouble getting 8 games. Minnetonka, Eden prairie sometimes had to go out of state to fill their schedules. District scheduling is what drove it to be self contained, but I’m not sure who or why the driving force was

 

[disco]

Who were the main drivers to make it so that (even bottom of) 6A are not allowed to schedule 5A in the regular season?

Did the 5A schools push for it?

IIRC, 6A, and district scheduling came about in part because the Lake Conference had been reduced to just five teams. Wayzata, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, Edina and Hopkins. Those schools (and EP in particular for a couple reasons) couldn't get other schools to play them and for a couple years, EP played a team from Winnipeg. Around that time, the state decided to take over all football scheduling and kill off conference play as it was traditionally known. Essentially, the state forced the large schools to play the ginormous schools.

Of course the Lake Conference now has seven teams again.

 

[Some guy]

Do you change that year to year?

Some programs tend to be good almost every year. Wayzata, Eden Prairie, Stillwater, Maple Grove etc.

Some programs have a really good year out of nowhere. Forest Lake being ranked in the top ten last season after being a historically bad program for 20+ years.

Some former powerhouses have fallen way off. Burnsville, Anoka, Park Center, Apple Valley come to mind.

It is all re-evaluated every 2 years regardless of methodology

 

[Some guy]

IIRC, 6A, and district scheduling came about in part because the Lake Conference had been reduced to just five teams. Wayzata, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, Edina and Hopkins. Those schools (and EP in particular) couldn't get other schools to play them and for a couple years, EP played a team from Winnipeg. Around that time, the state decided to take over all football scheduling and kill off conference play as it was traditionally known. Essentially, the state forced the large schools to play the ginormous schools.

Of course the Lake Conference now has seven teams again.

Yes. And it makes a little more sense again this year now that they’re doing section scheduling with relief. I still wish they’d take into consideration that hopkins’ “enrollment” number is closer to Fulda and Moose Lake than it is to Minnetonka’s

 

[disco]

And it should be noted, Hopkins wasn't always a doormat. They stayed in the Lake Conference when other schools like Armstrong left.

Hopkins has great facilities, and while demographically, they are a bit poorer than their west metro peers, there are two reasons I think their football program is so bad.

1. Their feeder program. They only play flag and flex through 6th grade. They don't play tackle until 7th grade when the other west metro schools start playing in 4th. You can debate whether kids in 4th should be playing tackle (I coach, so I'm biased in favor) but those kids have three years of fundamentals in hand.

2. They are the last major metro school (and one of the last in the state) to still have a junior high model (7-9 in jr. high, and 10-12 in high school.). Everyone else is a middle school model with 9-12 in high school. There has to be a disconnect there with the 9th graders not being at the same school. I believe they are changing either next year or the year after.

 

[disco]

And of course if not for open enrollment, Minnetonka would be a similar size if not smaller than Hopkins.

 

[Some guy]

And it should be noted, Hopkins wasn't always a doormat. They stayed in the Lake Conference when other schools like Armstrong left.

Hopkins has great facilities, and while demographically, they are a bit poorer than their west metro peers, there are two reasons I think their football program is so bad.

1. Their feeder program. They only play flag and flex through 6th grade. They don't play tackle until 7th grade when the other west metro schools start playing in 4th. You can debate whether kids in 4th should be playing tackle (I coach, so I'm biased in favor) but those kids have three years of fundamentals in hand.

2. They are the last major metro school (and one of the last in the state) to still have a junior high model (7-9 in jr. high, and 10-12 in high school.). Everyone else is a middle school model with 9-12 in high school. There has to be a disconnect there with the 9th graders not being at the same school. I believe they are changing either next year or the year after.

Some of this will take care of itself
Elk River, Andover, rogers, Moorhead will all pass Burnsville and Hopkins in two years in enrollment.

 

[disco]

Some of this will take care of itself
Elk River, Andover, rogers, Moorhead will all pass Burnsville and Hopkins in two years in enrollment.

Andover may not. See post 38 in this thread. Andover is capped.

 

[Some guy]

Andover may not. See post 38 in this thread. Andover is capped.

Andover caps its number in terms of open enrollment. But if you move into the school attendance area it is literally against the law to deny entry. And new construction all over

 

[disco]

Andover caps its number in terms of open enrollment. But if you move into the school attendance area it is literally against the law to deny entry. And new construction all over

Correct, but with five high schools in the district, they can shift boundaries as needed to spread intra-district enrollment. There will be some who move into the Andover attendance area today that might not be in 15 years. This is the scenario I mentioned about Maple Grove to Osseo to Park Center.

 

[xyz1]

With Hopkins, I don't think you can overstate the demographic/economic challenges they face. For a variety of reasons, a lot of the kids from more affluent families in the district attend school elsewhere, many of the students they do have don't live within district boundaries, and a lot of them are from families facing economic or other challenges that make it less likely they'd be heavily involved in youth athletics. Realistically they are not going to have developmental programs and support systems even remotely comparable to neighboring schools like Wayzata and Minnetonka. The 10-12 thing is in fact finally changing, and that might help but I don't think that would be one of the main factors for their struggles.

Having perceived competitiveness being a larger part of class assignment, rather than strictly going by size, would of course yield better results were it possible to do such a thing. But I simply can't imagine MSHSL would ever want to spend the time and resources it would take to do that meaningfully. Just imagine the lobbying and politicking that would take place.

I will say that from the schedules trickling out it really does seem that they have done what they can to promote competitive contests within the class structure as it exists. At least some relief was created for the schools that struggle in 6A, and for the 5A teams closest to where I live, St. Thomas will actually play multiple competitive games this year, while Two Rivers, which has won five games in five seasons, is finally playing more schools it should be competitive with - five of their 2023 games are against Mpls or St. Paul teams.

 

[Some guy]

Correct, but with five high schools in the district, they can shift boundaries as needed to spread intra-district enrollment. There will be some who move into the Andover attendance area today that might not be in 15 years. This is the scenario I mentioned about Maple Grove to Osseo to Park Center.

Yeah good luck with that. You get to be the one to tell the Andover parents their kids are going to anoka or coon rapids

 

[Gophers_4life]

And it should be noted, Hopkins wasn't always a doormat. They stayed in the Lake Conference when other schools like Armstrong left.

Hopkins has great facilities, and while demographically, they are a bit poorer than their west metro peers, there are two reasons I think their football program is so bad.

1. Their feeder program. They only play flag and flex through 6th grade. They don't play tackle until 7th grade when the other west metro schools start playing in 4th. You can debate whether kids in 4th should be playing tackle (I coach, so I'm biased in favor) but those kids have three years of fundamentals in hand.

2. They are the last major metro school (and one of the last in the state) to still have a junior high model (7-9 in jr. high, and 10-12 in high school.). Everyone else is a middle school model with 9-12 in high school. There has to be a disconnect there with the 9th graders not being at the same school. I believe they are changing either next year or the year after.

Wonder if that last bit has to do with how much consolidation Hopkins has gone through in the last XX years? Absorbed Golden Valley. So perhaps have the buildings they have and just can't fit 9-12 properly, without needing to just start over or do a major addition that isn't realistic with the real estate they have?

Just spitballing.

Of course, they used to have two high schools back in the day. The other one now I believe is a community center.