Hole Poll: What grade would you give the Gophers Class of 2022 recruiting class?

[MNVCGUY]

I live in TN now. Maybe being around SEC fans have raised my expectations.. because I tell you what. UT brings in a class rated overall at .86..... Shits hitting the fan

With all due respect, how are those high rated classes working out for UT? Like Neb, TN is a perfect example of how winning the recruiting rankings doesn’t guarantee you will win on the field.

 

[Six to Eight]

I said this in another thread and have zero intel, but I think Fleck is intentionally recruiting more high ceiling developmental athletes (especially local ones) who KNOW upfront they'll need 2-3 years in the program before they see significant playing time. Guys like that are probably less likely to hit the portal after a year or two, whereas some of the mid 3* guys from out of state have less reason to stick around if they don't play right away (a la Boyd, Gordon, Wiley, Anderson, etc.).

Would Fleck like all 4* guys? Yeah, of course. But that ain't gonna happen, so I think he'll get as many as he can, hit the portal HARD for mature bodies to fill in gaps for 2 years, and recruit more developmental players who can contribute in years 3, 4, and 5. Just my opinion of course...

Boyd and Anderson didn't leave because of lack of playing time. And honestly, I think it's wishful thinking to infer PJ is taking guys because he wants some developmental types he expects to stick around in backup roles. I think so far, he has been taking the best players he can get and that he expects will fit his culture. The stated goal was to have recruits push current starters for their jobs.

My view is that PJ and staff have done a good job of getting 3 star guys that were probably underrated. But he's also pursued plenty of 4 and 5 star guys, most of whom he hasn't signed. I'm not sure why that is or what level of success will change that. But in order to consistently beat Iowa, Wisconsin and compete with the East, we're going to need more of the consensus top recruits that we have been striking out on.

 

[Six to Eight]

With all due respect, how are those high rated classes working out for UT? Like Neb, TN is a perfect example of how winning the recruiting rankings doesn’t guarantee you will win on the field.

Come on man.

All one needs to do is look at who Tennessee lost to this year. Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida...all ranked. And a good Pitt team playing Mich State in a bowl. And they beat Bowling Green 38-6.

Not that anyone would expect you to discuss anything involving the Gophers with the slightest bit of impartiality.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Come on man.

All one needs to do is look at who Tennessee lost to this year. Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida...all ranked. And a good Pitt team playing Mich State in a bowl. And they beat Bowling Green 38-6.

Not that anyone would expect you to discuss anything involving the Gophers with the slightest bit of impartiality.

Ok I'll bite....

Tennessee
2017 - 4-8 - #17 recruiting class - 1 five star and 4 four star players
2018 - 5-7 - #21 recruiting class - 8 four star players
2019 - 8-5 - #13 recruiting class - 2 five star and 10 four star players
2020 - 3-7 - #11 recruiting class - 13 four star players
2021 - 7-5 - #23 recruiting class - 6 four star players
Total - 27-32 - .457 winning percentage - 2 bowl games

So in 5 years that is 3 five star players and 41 four star players to go along with 5 top 25 classes according to 247's team ranks.

Minnesota
2017 - 5-7 - #59 recruiting class - no four or five star players
2018 - 7-6 - #38 recruiting class - 3 four star players
2019 - 11-2 - #45 recruiting class - no four or five star players
2020 - 3-4 - #38 recruiting class - 2 four star players
2021 - 8-4 - #38 recruiting class - 4 four star players
Total - 34-23 - .594 winning percentage - 3 bowl games

In 5 years that is 0 five star players and 9 four star players. No classes ranked in the 247 top 30.

So either Fleck is an amazing coach, the Tennessee coaches just suck or maybe....just maybe....the recruiting rankings aren't perfect and winning the recruiting rankings doesn't guarantee winning on the field.

 

[Ypsi Gopher]

I know it's not scientific at all and therefore it makes recruiting evaluations sort of like shaking fish bones or reading end trails.

For me, it really depends on the positions the players play and where they are from. I don't really care that Tony Nelson didn't have any other P5 offers. I don't care about his rating. I don't care about Spencer Alvarez's rating. Our staff spotted those guys early and offered them. If you're a local LB, TE, OL . . . the ratings just don't matter as much to me.

On the other hand, I don't think you can compete in big time college football without elite athletes at the skill positions and the DL. We have three of our highest rated DL in Fleck's entire tenure. I really like our QB.

So while I hear people wanting more in terms of ratings. I just think the process is always going to be slower than we want. WI has been good for years and they are still only marginally better than us in terms of recruiting.

I think we need to consistently bring in good athletes, consistently put out a good football team and then those things will just kind of snowball off of each other. I don't think it's realistic to out recruit schools with a drastic geographic advantage.

Well said

 

[John Galt]

Ok I'll bite....

Tennessee
2017 - 4-8 - #17 recruiting class - 1 five star and 4 four star players
2018 - 5-7 - #21 recruiting class - 8 four star players
2019 - 8-5 - #13 recruiting class - 2 five star and 10 four star players
2020 - 3-7 - #11 recruiting class - 13 four star players
2021 - 7-5 - #23 recruiting class - 6 four star players
Total - 27-32 - .457 winning percentage - 2 bowl games

So in 5 years that is 3 five star players and 41 four star players to go along with 5 top 25 classes according to 247's team ranks.

Minnesota
2017 - 5-7 - #59 recruiting class - no four or five star players
2018 - 7-6 - #38 recruiting class - 3 four star players
2019 - 11-2 - #45 recruiting class - no four or five star players
2020 - 3-4 - #38 recruiting class - 2 four star players
2021 - 8-4 - #38 recruiting class - 4 four star players
Total - 34-23 - .594 winning percentage - 3 bowl games

In 5 years that is 0 five star players and 9 four star players. No classes ranked in the 247 top 30.

So either Fleck is an amazing coach, the Tennessee coaches just suck or maybe....just maybe....the recruiting rankings aren't perfect and winning the recruiting rankings doesn't guarantee winning on the field.

You seem to have no ability to comprehend the basic premise people are making. 1- Tennessee plays in the SEC and we play in the B1G west. Our record and theirs would be very different if we played each other’s schedules. 2- no one is arguing recruiting rankings are perfect. Winning is made up of recruiting, player development, coaching and culture. Recruiting rankings are like statistics, they provide a bell curve of how well teams are likely to do. Some teams will underperform their recruiting rankings because they don’t excel at player development, coaching and culture. Some will outperform. PJ has clearly outperformed his recruiting rankings because he’s done a good job in the other 3 areas. But there is a limit to how good you can be if you’re recruiting class is ranked 38th in the country. Statistics would tell us that teams that are always finishing in the 30s in recruiting aren’t going to consistently be a top 10-15 team in the country. So it’s really about expectations. If you’re perfectly content with the last 5 years of Gopher football and content to be a runner up in the west and win around 8 games with the occasional outlier to the good end like 2019 and outlier to the bad end like 2020, the program will be fine. This recruiting class is likely to deliver on those expectations. But if you want us to turn the corner and be a consistent top 25 team, classes like this are unlikely to do it.

 

[Plato]

If one believes the recruiting rankings are as accurate as measurements of the speed of light be my guest.
There are people who believe the bible is a historical document, the earth his 6000 years old and vaccines do not work.
Those beliefs are based on faith, not facts.
You are free to believe what you want but there are so many variables in calculating individual recruit's scores that the errors in each calculation accumulate when the individual team's rankings are published.

 

[MNVCGUY]

You seem to have no ability to comprehend the basic premise people are making. 1- Tennessee plays in the SEC and we play in the B1G west. Our record and theirs would be very different if we played each other’s schedules. 2- no one is arguing recruiting rankings are perfect. Winning is made up of recruiting, player development, coaching and culture. Recruiting rankings are like statistics, they provide a bell curve of how well teams are likely to do. Some teams will underperform their recruiting rankings because they don’t excel at player development, coaching and culture. Some will outperform. PJ has clearly outperformed his recruiting rankings because he’s done a good job in the other 3 areas. But there is a limit to how good you can be if you’re recruiting class is ranked 38th in the country. Statistics would tell us that teams that are always finishing in the 30s in recruiting aren’t going to consistently be a top 10-15 team in the country. So it’s really about expectations. If you’re perfectly content with the last 5 years of Gopher football and content to be a runner up in the west and win around 8 games with the occasional outlier to the good end like 2019 and outlier to the bad end like 2020, the program will be fine. This recruiting class is likely to deliver on those expectations. But if you want us to turn the corner and be a consistent top 25 team, classes like this are unlikely to do it.

I comprehend just fine thanks.

To #1 - BS, if you put Tennessee in the Big Ten they would have a very similar record to the one they have in the SEC. Both conferences have elite teams at the top and solid teams throughout. Their division is made up of Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Vanderbilt.

#2 there absolutely are people here that believe the rankings are spot on. Recruiting classes like the ones we have been bringing in are unlikely to push us into the CFP tier of college football on any sort of regular basis (very few teams can recruit at that level right now). But we absolutely can win the West, have a shot to win the Big Ten, be in the top 25, and consistently win 8-10 games with classes like the ones we are bringing in. The reality is that with our local talent base it will be very hard for us to consistently push into the elite tier of college football. Anyone expecting that in the current college football landscape is just setting themselves up for disappointment. Hopefully we get to that elite level at some point but it isn't going to happen quickly.

Programs like Iowa and Wisconsin have had long runs of stability and sustained success and they can't get into that elite tier.

 

[Gopher Ascension]

You seem to have no ability to comprehend the basic premise people are making. 1- Tennessee plays in the SEC and we play in the B1G west. Our record and theirs would be very different if we played each other’s schedules. 2- no one is arguing recruiting rankings are perfect. Winning is made up of recruiting, player development, coaching and culture. Recruiting rankings are like statistics, they provide a bell curve of how well teams are likely to do. Some teams will underperform their recruiting rankings because they don’t excel at player development, coaching and culture. Some will outperform. PJ has clearly outperformed his recruiting rankings because he’s done a good job in the other 3 areas. But there is a limit to how good you can be if you’re recruiting class is ranked 38th in the country. Statistics would tell us that teams that are always finishing in the 30s in recruiting aren’t going to consistently be a top 10-15 team in the country. So it’s really about expectations. If you’re perfectly content with the last 5 years of Gopher football and content to be a runner up in the west and win around 8 games with the occasional outlier to the good end like 2019 and outlier to the bad end like 2020, the program will be fine. This recruiting class is likely to deliver on those expectations. But if you want us to turn the corner and be a consistent top 25 team, classes like this are unlikely to do it.

To play devil's advocate, Wisconsin seems to be a consistent top 25 team, and had no classes ranked above 30 in the last 10~ years up until 2 years ago. Maybe, just maybe, there is some bias from recruiting sites to the SEC/areas where the SEC traditionally gets the majority of its players from? Just a thought.

 

[MaxyJR1]

To play devil's advocate, Wisconsin seems to be a consistent top 25 team, and had no classes ranked above 30 in the last 10~ years up until 2 years ago. Maybe, just maybe, there is some bias from recruiting sites to the SEC/areas where the SEC traditionally gets the majority of its players from? Just a thought.

Watch the style of play at the HS level. Top MN teams pound the rock with a team concept that rarely passes the ball. Hard to really evaluate what kids can truly do on the field. Add in the South has spring ball for coaches to evaluate. Midwest players are generally off the radar a bit and late bloomers. WI, IA, MN , NDSU etc. are producing NFL talent and many are not above 3* coming out of HS.

If MN can win the west and possibly the B1G it will change more kids minds on "Wanting to be Gophers." Fleck speaks the truth with wanting. "kids that want to be Gophers."

 

[CentralGopher]

You seem to have no ability to comprehend the basic premise people are making. 1- Tennessee plays in the SEC and we play in the B1G west. Our record and theirs would be very different if we played each other’s schedules. 2- no one is arguing recruiting rankings are perfect. Winning is made up of recruiting, player development, coaching and culture. Recruiting rankings are like statistics, they provide a bell curve of how well teams are likely to do. Some teams will underperform their recruiting rankings because they don’t excel at player development, coaching and culture. Some will outperform. PJ has clearly outperformed his recruiting rankings because he’s done a good job in the other 3 areas. But there is a limit to how good you can be if you’re recruiting class is ranked 38th in the country. Statistics would tell us that teams that are always finishing in the 30s in recruiting aren’t going to consistently be a top 10-15 team in the country. So it’s really about expectations. If you’re perfectly content with the last 5 years of Gopher football and content to be a runner up in the west and win around 8 games with the occasional outlier to the good end like 2019 and outlier to the bad end like 2020, the program will be fine. This recruiting class is likely to deliver on those expectations. But if you want us to turn the corner and be a consistent top 25 team, classes like this are unlikely to do it.

Ask Auburn how that worked out. Head to head results on the field can’t be argued.

 

[btowngopher]

I think it’s fair to grade based on difficulty of recruiting here. Fleck literally had 3 options within the state that are rated higher than his average commit. One went to Stanford, one is playing basketball, and one we didn't offer. This was arguably one of PJ's most successful year with instate recruiting, but the perceived talent is severely lacking.

 

[Off-GridTNgopher]

With all due respect, how are those high rated classes working out for UT? Like Neb, TN is a perfect example of how winning the recruiting rankings doesn’t guarantee you will win on the field.

Tenn is a perfect example of not having a coach just like nebby ....

 

[RuesterGAGT]

It's funny, in my eyes, how people use TN and NE as examples that recruiting classes aren't everything.

Well no crap.

But as others have said, it's not just the class, it's three things you need to have in order to make it to the top echelon. If you don't have these three, you wont make it.

1. Top Level Recruiting Classes
2. Good Player Development
3. Good Coaching/Game Strategies

Fleck and Co have proven they have #2, and some (most) #3 sans some Sanford games this year. However, we don't have #1. TN and NE have #1 but not #2 and #3. If we want to get to the top teams, we need to have all three.

EDIT - a perfect example, historically, of someone having #1 but not #2 or #3 is Texas. They constantly get top ten classes, but then suck compared to OU. I could throw in A&M as an example as well, but Texas is more fitting as they play in a weaker conference up until this year.

 

[John Galt]

It's funny, in my eyes, how people use TN and NE as examples that recruiting classes aren't everything.

Well no crap.

But as others have said, it's not just the class, it's three things you need to have in order to make it to the top echelon. If you don't have these three, you wont make it.

1. Top Level Recruiting Classes
2. Good Player Development
3. Good Coaching/Game Strategies

Fleck and Co have proven they have #2, and some (most) #3 sans some Sanford games this year. However, we don't have #1. TN and NE have #1 but not #2 and #3. If we want to get to the top teams, we need to have all three.

It’s really this simple, but amazing that so many people don’t get it. There’s a reason that Bama, Georgia, Ohio St, Michigan and Clemson are typically top 10 teams and have a chance of winning the CFP while Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa don’t. It’s because recruiting rankings matter, and if you’re pulling in top 10 classes your odds of making the CFP go up dramatically.

 

[btowngopher]

It's funny, in my eyes, how people use TN and NE as examples that recruiting classes aren't everything.

Well no crap.

But as others have said, it's not just the class, it's three things you need to have in order to make it to the top echelon. If you don't have these three, you wont make it.

1. Top Level Recruiting Classes
2. Good Player Development
3. Good Coaching/Game Strategies

Fleck and Co have proven they have #2, and some (most) #3 sans some Sanford games this year. However, we don't have #1. TN and NE have #1 but not #2 and #3. If we want to get to the top teams, we need to have all three.

Agree. I think we can win the west and be Iowa/Wisconsin like with this level of recruiting, but to be OSU/Michigan like it will take more.

 

[John Galt]

Ask Auburn how that worked out. Head to head results on the field can’t be argued.

Your argument is one game during the best season we’ve had in 50 years? What program has been better for the past 50 years?

 

[John Galt]

To play devil's advocate, Wisconsin seems to be a consistent top 25 team, and had no classes ranked above 30 in the last 10~ years up until 2 years ago. Maybe, just maybe, there is some bias from recruiting sites to the SEC/areas where the SEC traditionally gets the majority of its players from? Just a thought.

Wisconsin has outrecruited us by a wide margin over the past 10 years. I’d agree that they have outperformed their recruiting rankings, but their fan base has been frustrated that they could never break through to the upper echelon and beat teams like Ohio St.

 

[CentralGopher]

Your argument is one game during the best season we’ve had in 50 years? What program has been better for the past 50 years?

Against a ranked sec team most national pundits predicted would beat us.

 

[Homerpalooza]

Your argument is one game during the best season we’ve had in 50 years? What program has been better for the past 50 years?

Gophers beat Georgia Tech handily in ‘18 with a class of 52% Freshman (Nations highest) that set themselves up for ‘19.

It’s unarguable that they coached and developed a lot of Freshman to deliver those results in ‘19 but the talent was there in ‘18.

‘18 Freshman (including redshirts) were:

Rashod Bateman
Daniel Faalele
Tyler Johnson
Mo Ibrahim
Chris Altman-Bell
Zach Annexstadt
Tanner Morgan

Annexstadt performed poorly in the 4 B1G games, with costly turnovers against Iowa, etc. Sadly he was injured against Nebraska but this opened up an opportunity for Morgan who led us to victory against Wisconsin and Georgia Tech.

Correcting mid year was great.

Edit: Tyler was not a Freshman.

 

[Gopher Ascension]

Wisconsin has outrecruited us by a wide margin over the past 10 years. I’d agree that they have outperformed their recruiting rankings, but their fan base has been frustrated that they could never break through to the upper echelon and beat teams like Ohio St.

Very true - although outside of a couple of outliers, Fleck/staff has been working to bridge the gap. Ohio State is pretty consistently in the top 5 in class rankings (at least via 247). Just shows how much further we still have to go as a program in order to surpass Wisconsin, much less Ohio State. Makes you wonder if catching Ohio State or the other traditional powers is even attainable in this changing day and age of college football. Although where's the fun in not trying

 

[btowngopher]

Unless we change geographic location and add decades of success it’s going to be next to impossible to recruit in the top 25 consistently. Maybe NIL can change things somehow. As things stand now I think it’s reasonable to rank something along these lines, top 30=A, top 40=B, top 50=C. I had this class as a B, but probably more like B- to me. A splashier WR to paired with Hoskins and a couple bigger hits at OL and LB would’ve pushed it to a solid B. Ike White seems like a bit of mystery, haven’t heard much about him this past year. I’m imagining the transfer portal is going to wreak some havoc on the recruiting rankings being a good predictive tool for a teams success.

 

[Dakota2]

Ok I'll bite....

Tennessee
2017 - 4-8 - #17 recruiting class - 1 five star and 4 four star players
2018 - 5-7 - #21 recruiting class - 8 four star players
2019 - 8-5 - #13 recruiting class - 2 five star and 10 four star players
2020 - 3-7 - #11 recruiting class - 13 four star players
2021 - 7-5 - #23 recruiting class - 6 four star players
Total - 27-32 - .457 winning percentage - 2 bowl games

So in 5 years that is 3 five star players and 41 four star players to go along with 5 top 25 classes according to 247's team ranks.

Minnesota
2017 - 5-7 - #59 recruiting class - no four or five star players
2018 - 7-6 - #38 recruiting class - 3 four star players
2019 - 11-2 - #45 recruiting class - no four or five star players
2020 - 3-4 - #38 recruiting class - 2 four star players
2021 - 8-4 - #38 recruiting class - 4 four star players
Total - 34-23 - .594 winning percentage - 3 bowl games

In 5 years that is 0 five star players and 9 four star players. No classes ranked in the 247 top 30.

So either Fleck is an amazing coach, the Tennessee coaches just suck or maybe....just maybe....the recruiting rankings aren't perfect and winning the recruiting rankings doesn't guarantee winning on the field.

It cannot be portrayed more clearly than MNVC's statistical citation above. Ratings are for individual players. Fleck recruits pieces for a system and culture.

And nobody on the planet knows the difference between an .86 and .87 or an .88 and .89.

 

[MNVCGUY]

It cannot be portrayed more clearly than MNVC's statistical citation above. Ratings are for individual players. Fleck recruits pieces for a system and culture.

And nobody on the planet knows the difference between an .86 and .87 or an .88 and .89.

I think you could make that range much larger than that.

Avante Dickerson - .9442 vs. Justin Walley .8647. I guarantee that even after Dickerson hardly managed to get on the field for Oregon and Walley was named a true freshman All American by 247 that there are fans on this forum who if given the choice would still want Dickerson because the recruiting services say he is the better player of the two.

The recruiting sites have value but what many don't grasp is that those sites are not able to do a deep dive on the vast majority of players they rank once you get beyond the best of the best (the guys that typically end up at the helmet schools like Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia)..... It just isn't logistically possible for them to accurately evaluate thousands of players from all over the country playing against all different levels of competition. They are simply making educated guesses based on limited amounts of information. They get it right a lot and they get it wrong a lot. Anyone think Mertz was worth the .96 they gave him at this point?

It is what it is at this point though and we have these discussions every year after signing day.

 

[Six to Eight]

Ok I'll bite....

Tennessee
2017 - 4-8 - #17 recruiting class - 1 five star and 4 four star players
2018 - 5-7 - #21 recruiting class - 8 four star players
2019 - 8-5 - #13 recruiting class - 2 five star and 10 four star players
2020 - 3-7 - #11 recruiting class - 13 four star players
2021 - 7-5 - #23 recruiting class - 6 four star players
Total - 27-32 - .457 winning percentage - 2 bowl games

So in 5 years that is 3 five star players and 41 four star players to go along with 5 top 25 classes according to 247's team ranks.

Minnesota
2017 - 5-7 - #59 recruiting class - no four or five star players
2018 - 7-6 - #38 recruiting class - 3 four star players
2019 - 11-2 - #45 recruiting class - no four or five star players
2020 - 3-4 - #38 recruiting class - 2 four star players
2021 - 8-4 - #38 recruiting class - 4 four star players
Total - 34-23 - .594 winning percentage - 3 bowl games

In 5 years that is 0 five star players and 9 four star players. No classes ranked in the 247 top 30.

So either Fleck is an amazing coach, the Tennessee coaches just suck or maybe....just maybe....the recruiting rankings aren't perfect and winning the recruiting rankings doesn't guarantee winning on the field.

Again, you just don't seem to be able to have a conversation like this about your favorite team.

Strength of schedule - I used OWP (opponents wins and losses) from Warren Nolan .com.
2017: UT 61 Minnesota 67
2018: UT 12 Minnesota 52
2019: UT 19 Minnesota 74
2020: UT 8 Minnesota 92
2021: UT 26 Minnesota 65

Again, PJ is recruiting well enough to be competitive with Wisconsin and Iowa but it's reasonable for fans to wonder when and what it will take to make the jump to the next tier of recruiting that will allow us to compete with the big boys outside the Big ten west. You can be both appreciative of what has been achieved so far and also eager for improvement.