Even with poor non-conference slate, 21 wins should get the Gophers a ticket to the Madness

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MUgopher32 said:
Absolutely theres a middle ground. Can be objective while also being happy that a gopher team projected to be Georgetown level bad has a legit shot at 10 conference wins.

But people thinking 10 especially and likely even 11 is enough to dance will be in for a reality check. Lets say they somehow beat Purude and Illinois in that stretch? 2 great wins. But record wise that also means they lost to like Penn State or something else brutal on the metrics.

12 wins are needed to feel good. 11 with BIg10 tourney win could do it depending on opponent. Like you said, pointing this out doesnt downplay the start.
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With how bad the NC schedule was, I wouldn't feel safe with 12 wins. They didn't take advantage by beating the 2 decent teams they did have on the NC schedule (SF and Mizzou). 13-14 conference wins plus 2 in the BIG tourney is probably safer. Nice that we can actually start to discuss a realistic path.
 

At some point the Gophers need to win 3 or 4 games vs. opponents that likely/possibly end up in the NCAA Tournament. For now I'd define those teams as Illinois (road), Michigan State (home & road), Nebraska (already a home W, road), Northwestern (home & road), Ohio State (already a road L, home), Purdue (road), and Wisconsin (home).

Gophers Resume Thumbnail (through Jan. 7)
Record: 12-3
NET: 87

vs. Quad 1: 0-2
vs. Quad 2: 2-0
vs. Quad 3: 1-1
vs. Quad 4: 9-0

Home: 11-1
Road: 1-1
Neutral: 0-1

Overall SOS: #265
Non-Conference SOS: #355

Best Win by NET: #59 Nebraska
Worst Loss by NET: #117 Missouri
 
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SelectionSunday said:
At some point the Gophers need to win 3 or 4 games vs. opponents that likely/possibly end up in the NCAA Tournament. For now I'd define those teams as Illinois (road), Michigan State (home & road), Nebraska (already a home W, road), Northwestern (home & road), Ohio State (already a road L, home), Purdue (road), and Wisconsin (home).

Gophers Resume Thumbnail (through Jan. 7)
Record: 12-3
NET: 87
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At least with a current NET of 87 the NIT is within reach.

I'm not saying that in a condescending manner. Have to start somewhere. Baby steps.
 

Gophers7633 said:
I also don't think people realize we only play Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin once. We could get to 12 B1G wins without winning a single Q1 game. For whatever reason people think because I'm bringing this up, I'm trying to downplay any success this team and CBJ can have. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

People need to realize the B1G is down. Coupled with the bad OOC SOS, loss to Missouri and the B1G being down, simply going .500 isn't going to be enough. Like I said, I'm just glad to have these conversations.
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I didn't realize that. Thanks for pointing it out.

Even more reason with this start to make the ncaa.
 




Block M said:
13 wins in conference is asking a lot so I am not sure an at-large bid is in the cards. That said, get a decent seed for the BTT (for a a change) and win the damn thing.
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Just a reminder that ONE BIG team won 13 or more regular seasons games last year. Also, 10 of 14 teams were .500 or better in conf. I'm betting more of a spread this season. We'll see.
 

As a general question as I don’t know, when is the last time a B10 team missed at say 11-9 or 10-10 (or the equivalent) in conference?
 



Well,
upnorthkid said:
As a general question as I don’t know, when is the last time a B10 team missed at say 11-9 or 10-10 (or the equivalent) in conference?
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Well the 10th place team in the BIG last year was 10-10 in conference so I will say last year.
 



HitMeAgainIAmStillMoving said:
How about this 2017-18 for Nebby, now thats a conference down year.
2017–18Tim Miles22–1113–5T–4thNIT first round
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If you look at their schedule that year, they only had 1 game each against all 4 of the teams that finished ahead of them, and went 1-3 in those games. The Big Ten only put 4 teams in the tournament, so on top of the conference being down, Nebraska had an easy schedule with only having to play the good teams once, and their best non-conference win was a Boston College team that went 7-11 in the ACC.

The Gophers this year are somewhat similar, with little to nothing to hang our hats on for non-conference wins, and we only get Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin once each, who appear to be the 3 best teams in the Big Ten early on. I'll bet the Big Ten gets more than 4 teams into the tournament this year though, I'll guess 6. Nebraska's win against Purdue tonight probably puts them on the right side of the bubble right now.
 





Cayman said:
If you look at their schedule that year, they only had 1 game each against all 4 of the teams that finished ahead of them, and went 1-3 in those games. The Big Ten only put 4 teams in the tournament, so on top of the conference being down, Nebraska had an easy schedule with only having to play the good teams once, and their best non-conference win was a Boston College team that went 7-11 in the ACC.

The Gophers this year are somewhat similar, with little to nothing to hang our hats on for non-conference wins, and we only get Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin once each, who appear to be the 3 best teams in the Big Ten early on. I'll bet the Big Ten gets more than 4 teams into the tournament this year though, I'll guess 6. Nebraska's win against Purdue tonight probably puts them on the right side of the bubble right now.
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Good analysis. I think they also got bounced in the first game in the BTT. I'd bet they would have received a bid if they had won that.

Also of note, there were only 18 conference games back then. Two more big ten games should help drag up our overall SOS.

One way to compensate for the charmin-soft non-conference is to win on the road against Q1 and Q2.

There are seemingly bubble teams every year that lack quality road wins. If we're serious about a tourney bid, we must stand out in the department.
 





SelectionSunday said:
Disagree with Marcus here. It's not really that crazy. Indiana is nothing special.

This is another road win Gophers need to get. Need to pounce on several of the "winnable" ones because Illinois and Purdue, especially, are pretty much guaranteed L's.
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Assembly Hall is always a super tough place to play, regardless of how the Hoosiers are doing overall.

Guessing that's what Marcus meant here.
 

Zeppelin Gopher said:
Assembly Hall is always a super tough place to play, regardless of how the Hoosiers are doing overall.

Guessing that's what Marcus meant here.
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I will never forget playing there Tubby's 2nd year. They were awful and it was an 11 AM Sunday game. But they still had every seat full and did a whiteout and nearly beat us.
 





Holy Man said:
Odds makers don’t like the Gophers or know more than we do, or both.
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The Gophers are 14-1 against the spread this season, #1 in the nation (the one failure to beat the spread was against San Francisco). The oddsmakers have been underestimating them throughout the season to this point. We'll see whether they can make it 15-1 tonight.
 

BarnBurner said:
Yes!!

Tell that to the "process warriors ".
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Nick Saban famously always talked about process with his team (executing the process is how you achieve the desired results); when you’re as good as good at your vocation as him, then you can mock it 🤠
 
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Gophers -1.5 vs. the Hawkeyes tonight.

This is a big one. Gophers can finish the softest part of their conference schedule (@ Michigan, Maryland, @ Indiana, Iowa) with a 3-1 mark. In my opinion that would mean they took care of business. 2-2. … not so much.

Another game really important for tiebreaker purposes, as well, in the event Weakling Wednesday comes into play (I hope not).
 
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