Even with poor non-conference slate, 21 wins should get the Gophers a ticket to the Madness

atsgopher

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15 of our remaining 21 games are against teams outside the top 50 in the NET. I'm not saying we are going to make the tournament, but we would have to do significant damage away from home. As it stands now, we only have 4 games that would qualify as a Q1/Q2 game at home with only one being a Q1 game(Wisconsin). In terms of tournament prospects, that Missouri loss is a killer. I don't think Missouri will play good enough to get that to a Q2 loss, so it's a bad loss on the resume, on top of us not getting hardly any Q1 opportunities due to the poor play of the B1G.

I think we may need to get to 12 regular seasons wins to feel good about it. Based on how teams are playing/rated, MUST win games are home vs. MD, MSU, Rutgers, PSU and IU. That gets to 6. Split the games against Iowa, OSU, NW and Wisconsin. That gets us to 8 wins. Can we then get road wins at IU, PSU, and some combination of at Michigan, at MSU, at Iowa, at Nebraska and at NW. Will something like 6-9 against Q1/Q2 (with most being Q2) competition be enough for at large consideration with a Q3 loss as well?
12 Big ten wins would be 4th best total in team history. 2nd in last 40.
 

kix4kix

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Back by popular demand (wink, wink), I give you the Gophers' 2023-24 "Road To A NCAA Tournament Bid".

Please note, I AM NOT PREDICTING THE GOPHERS WILL MAKE THE NCAA TOURNAMENT. I'm simply offering up a path that should safely land the Maroon & Gold in the Madness that is March. This season, I think that (pre-Big Ten Tournament) number is 21. For the record, the "Heavy Lifting" bucket includes my top 5 (projected) Big Ten opponents.

Don't Screw It Up (must go 9-0) -- 6-0
BCU (W 80-60) -- Gophers -17.5
UTSA (W 102-77) — Gophers -11.5
USC-Upstate (W 67-53) — Gophers -10.5
UAPB -- (W 86-67) — Gophers -19.5
New Orleans (W 97-64) — Gophers -12.5
FGCU (W 77-57) — Gophers -8.5
IUPUI
Ball State
Maine

"50/50 Balls" (go 5-3) -- 1-1
vs. San Francisco (L 58-76) — Gophers +4.5
Nebraska (W 76-65) — Gophers +2.5
Iowa
@ Penn State
Northwestern
Rutgers
Penn State
Indiana

Likely Underdog But Doable (go 5-3) -- 0-1
Mizzou (L 68-70) — Gophers +2.5
@ Michigan
Maryland
@ Indiana
Wisconsin
@ Iowa
@ Nebraska
@ Northwestern

Heavy Lifting (go 2-4) -- 0-1
@ Ohio State (L 74-84) — Gophers +12.5
@ Michigan State
Michigan State
@ Purdue
Ohio State
@ Illinois

If sitting at 20 wins heading to the Big Ten Tournament, the Gophers should plan on winning at least 2 games at the Target Center just to get on the bubble.
:ROFLMAO::LOL:
 

Gopher_In_NYC

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Back by popular demand (wink, wink), I give you the Gophers' 2023-24 "Road To A NCAA Tournament Bid".

Please note, I AM NOT PREDICTING THE GOPHERS WILL MAKE THE NCAA TOURNAMENT.
Does this bolding magically disappear if we win the lottery and go dancing 🕺 🧐?
I'm simply offering up a path that should safely land the Maroon & Gold in the Madness that is March. This season, I think that (pre-Big Ten Tournament) number is 21. For the record, the "Heavy Lifting" bucket includes my top 5 (projected) Big Ten opponents.

Don't Screw It Up (must go 9-0) -- 6-0
BCU (W 80-60) -- Gophers -17.5
UTSA (W 102-77) — Gophers -11.5
USC-Upstate (W 67-53) — Gophers -10.5
UAPB -- (W 86-67) — Gophers -19.5
New Orleans (W 97-64) — Gophers -12.5
FGCU (W 77-57) — Gophers -8.5
IUPUI
Ball State
Maine

"50/50 Balls" (go 5-3) -- 1-1
vs. San Francisco (L 58-76) — Gophers +4.5
Nebraska (W 76-65) — Gophers +2.5
Iowa
@ Penn State
Northwestern
Rutgers
Penn State
Indiana

Likely Underdog But Doable (go 5-3) -- 0-1
Mizzou (L 68-70) — Gophers +2.5
@ Michigan
Maryland
@ Indiana
Wisconsin
@ Iowa
@ Nebraska
@ Northwestern

Heavy Lifting (go 2-4) -- 0-1
@ Ohio State (L 74-84) — Gophers +12.5
@ Michigan State
Michigan State
@ Purdue
Ohio State
@ Illinois

If sitting at 20 wins heading to the Big Ten Tournament, the Gophers should plan on winning at least 2 games at the Target Center just to get on the bubble.
 






mnsportsgeek

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So basically go 12-8 and you're likely in. That's a tribute to how bad our scheduling is. We got a 5 seed going 11-7 in 2016/2017.
 
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SelectionSunday

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Gophers -11.5 vs. Ball State tonight. Unoffiically, it's for the "championship" of their MTE (multi-team event), as both teams are 2-0 in the round-robin.

Gophers defeated USC-Upstate by 14, Ball State beat USC-Upstate by 17.

Gophers defeated Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 19, Ball State beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 18.

The Gophers have covered the point spread in every home game except for Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which they fell 1 point short of the cover.
 
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TwistingMyMelon

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So basically go 12-8 and you're likely in. That's a tribute to how bad our scheduling is. We got a 5 seed going 11-7 in 2016/2017.

Certainly the nonconference schedule is the major part of that but the conference schedule may not help as much as usual either. 5 conference teams have four or more losses at this point of the season. While our schedule so far is the worst in the conference, the schedules of Maryland, Nebraska, and Rutgers aren't so great either.
 











Gopher_In_NYC

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15 of our remaining 21 games are against teams outside the top 50 in the NET. I'm not saying we are going to make the tournament, but we would have to do significant damage away from home. As it stands now, we only have 4 games that would qualify as a Q1/Q2 game at home with only one being a Q1 game(Wisconsin). In terms of tournament prospects, that Missouri loss is a killer. I don't think Missouri will play good enough to get that to a Q2 loss, so it's a bad loss on the resume, on top of us not getting hardly any Q1 opportunities due to the poor play of the B1G.

I think we may need to get to 12 regular seasons wins to feel good about it. Based on how teams are playing/rated, MUST win games are home vs. MD, MSU, Rutgers, PSU and IU. That gets to 6. Split the games against Iowa, OSU, NW and Wisconsin. That gets us to 8 wins. Can we then get road wins at IU, PSU, and some combination of at Michigan, at MSU, at Iowa, at Nebraska and at NW. Will something like 6-9 against Q1/Q2 (with most being Q2) competition be enough for at large consideration with a Q3 loss as well?
Your age is showing kiddo -

Over reliance on stats and zero historical context on how 12 B10 Ws would rank all-time, 4th, @atsgopher

I’m guessing you’re under 40, so you know everything 🤓.

What’s that saying again -

Young, dung and full of rum? If it doesn’t apply, let it fly.
 
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Gophers7633

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Your age is showing kiddo -

Over reliance on stats and zero historical context on how 12 B10 Ws would rank all-time, 4th, @atsgopher

I’m guessing you’re under 40, so you know everything 🤓.

What’s that saying again -

Young, dung and full of rum? If it doesn’t apply, let it fly.

Never claimed to know all, but I do follow the selection process quite closely, and have for the last dozen years or so. I'm projecting we'll need 12 B1G wins to feel good about making the tournament. It doesn't really matter how that is from a historical context for the Gophers. We don't get that mark, we likely aren't making it. I'm just glad to be having these types of conversations again.
 

Dave H

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Well other factors play in as well. We don't know how other conferences will fair, will they be as underperforming as much of the Big Ten is? (or worse) Will a bunch of leagues be top heavy leaving a lot of middle of the pack teams vying for the same spots? It is just too early to tell.

Right now I agree with you, 12 is the number to hit if they want a shot. That can change though as things play out. Road wins against name schools like Michigan is a good start.
 


MUgopher32

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Never claimed to know all, but I do follow the selection process quite closely, and have for the last dozen years or so. I'm projecting we'll need 12 B1G wins to feel good about making the tournament. It doesn't really matter how that is from a historical context for the Gophers. We don't get that mark, we likely aren't making it. I'm just glad to be having these types of conversations again.

You're very accurate in your assessment. Obviously things can change but some people dont realize just how bad the BIG10 is and how important quality wins are.

So many people were calling Michigan a Q1 win last night on twitter. Im like "you dopes they are 74 the cut off is 75. Losing at home to 89 Minnesota is going to drop them badly". Boom down 10 spots to 84 and considering they are 6-8 and in disarray gonna be hard to ever get back.

Up next is Maryland. While they cant shoot a lick that is a team with legit Big10 talent. They are a whopping 121 in the NET though. Meaning we play a Q3 game against a legit talent team. This is only the potential for a bad loss.

First step is clearly to win as many games as possible. But you saying 12 is the number to feel good is not a crazy statement at all. And anyone who says otherwise simply doesnt realize the value of Q1/Q2 and having a good non con SOS
 

Gophers7633

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You're very accurate in your assessment. Obviously things can change but some people dont realize just how bad the BIG10 is and how important quality wins are.

So many people were calling Michigan a Q1 win last night on twitter. Im like "you dopes they are 74 the cut off is 75. Losing at home to 89 Minnesota is going to drop them badly". Boom down 10 spots to 84 and considering they are 6-8 and in disarray gonna be hard to ever get back.

Up next is Maryland. While they cant shoot a lick that is a team with legit Big10 talent. They are a whopping 121 in the NET though. Meaning we play a Q3 game against a legit talent team. This is only the potential for a bad loss.

First step is clearly to win as many games as possible. But you saying 12 is the number to feel good is not a crazy statement at all. And anyone who says otherwise simply doesnt realize the value of Q1/Q2 and having a good non con SOS

I also don't think people realize we only play Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin once. We could get to 12 B1G wins without winning a single Q1 game. For whatever reason people think because I'm bringing this up, I'm trying to downplay any success this team and CBJ can have. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

People need to realize the B1G is down. Coupled with the bad OOC SOS, loss to Missouri and the B1G being down, simply going .500 isn't going to be enough. Like I said, I'm just glad to have these conversations.
 

MUgopher32

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I also don't think people realize we only play Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin once. We could get to 12 B1G wins without winning a single Q1 game. For whatever reason people think because I'm bringing this up, I'm trying to downplay any success this team and CBJ can have. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

People need to realize the B1G is down. Coupled with the bad OOC SOS, loss to Missouri and the B1G being down, simply going .500 isn't going to be enough. Like I said, I'm just glad to have these conversations.

Absolutely theres a middle ground. Can be objective while also being happy that a gopher team projected to be Georgetown level bad has a legit shot at 10 conference wins.

But people thinking 10 especially and likely even 11 is enough to dance will be in for a reality check. Lets say they somehow beat Purude and Illinois in that stretch? 2 great wins. But record wise that also means they lost to like Penn State or something else brutal on the metrics.

12 wins are needed to feel good. 11 with BIg10 tourney win could do it depending on opponent. Like you said, pointing this out doesnt downplay the start.
 

Gophers7633

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Absolutely theres a middle ground. Can be objective while also being happy that a gopher team projected to be Georgetown level bad has a legit shot at 10 conference wins.

But people thinking 10 especially and likely even 11 is enough to dance will be in for a reality check. Lets say they somehow beat Purude and Illinois in that stretch? 2 great wins. But record wise that also means they lost to like Penn State or something else brutal on the metrics.

12 wins are needed to feel good. 11 with BIg10 tourney win could do it depending on opponent. Like you said, pointing this out doesnt downplay the start.

Yeah, I really think 12 is the number we need to get. 20-11(11-9), and we'll need to avoid the "bad" loss in our B1GT opening game, and probably get another one to feel good. 22-12 will be a close call.

I'm always reminded of the Wake Forest team from 2022. Our resume could potentially look very similar and they got left out. 23-9(13-7) wasn't good enough to get in. They were 5-8 against Q1/Q2. Had a Q3 loss. OOC SOS of 277. Which will be much better than our will turn out. Committee won't care why we scheduled the way we did, they'll just look at that number in the 350's and hold it against us.
 

MUgopher32

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Another thing Ill add.

IMO the Wisconsin game is 100% the unequivocal biggest game of the year and it has nothing to do with the rivalry.

Would Purdue or Illinois be better wins? Of course, but those would be semi miraculous wins.

Wisconsin at home is extremely winnable. They wont overpower or out athlete and they play a style that keeps ya in the game. And simply they just arent as overall talented as teams like Purdue/Illinois

But they are barring something insane going to be a bona fide Q1 game at home. So that is the game to circle and win to really help the resume.
 


Gopher_In_NYC

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Back by popular demand (wink, wink), I give you the Gophers' 2023-24 "Road to a NCAA Tournament Bid".

Please note, I AM NOT PREDICTING THE GOPHERS WILL MAKE THE NCAA TOURNAMENT. I'm simply offering up a path that should safely land the Maroon & Gold in the Madness that is March. This season, I think that (pre-Big Ten Tournament) number is 21.

Don't Screw It Up (go 9-0) -- finished 9-0
IUPUI (W 101-65) -- Gophers -23.5
UAPB -- (W 86-67) — Gophers -19.5
BCU (W 80-60) -- Gophers -17.5
Maine (W 80-62) — Gophers -14.5
New Orleans (W 97-64) — Gophers -12.5
Ball State (W 80-63) -- Gophers -11.5
UTSA (W 102-77) — Gophers -11.5
USC-Upstate (W 67-53) — Gophers -10.5
FGCU (W 77-57) — Gophers -8.5

50/50 Balls (go 5-3) -- 1-1
Maryland — Gophers -1.5
Nebraska (W 76-65) — Gophers +2.5
vs. San Francisco (L 58-76) — Gophers +4.5
Iowa
@ Penn State
Rutgers
Penn State
Indiana

Likely Underdog But Doable (go 5-3) -- 1-1
Mizzou (L 68-70) — Gophers +2.5
@ Michigan (W 73-71) -- Gophers +6.5
@ Indiana
Northwestern
Michigan State
@ Iowa
@ Nebraska
@ Northwestern

Heavy Lifting (go 2-4) -- 0-1
@ Ohio State (L 74-84) — Gophers +12.5
@ Michigan State
Wisconsin
@ Purdue
Ohio State
@ Illinois

If sitting at 20 wins heading to the Big Ten Tournament, the Gophers should plan on winning at least 2 games at the Target Center just to get on the bubble.
At this rate, we’ll be at 21 by the end of January 🎉🥳🎊👏🙌🍾🍻
 





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