Even with poor non-conference slate, 21 wins should get the Gophers a ticket to the Madness

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Holy Man said:
It says February 6. I’m assuming that means after games on February 6, but they could be trying to confuse me and piss me off.
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This is a really good site:

NET Ranking - Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2024 Men's College Basketball NET Ranking: NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) a ranking of teams based on five factors, team value index, net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage, and scoring margin.
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

Haven't updated yet on here.
 

Holy Man said:
It says February 6. I’m assuming that means after games on February 6, but they could be trying to confuse me and piss me off.
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I posted the wrong stats after the game last night even though the score was final because they hadn’t updated the box score yet - we’ve got a bit of time before the computers completely take over😉
 





PoockItInfor6 said:
It’s amazing how spot on the original boxes may just end up… if we hold serve at home and steal 2 on the road SS would have gotten each and every group spot on with the records needed.
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Thanks.

Admittedly, unlike past seasons I'm shifting the buckets around as the season progresses based on current team NET rankings. The one thing I'm not messing with is the number of games in each bucket. The 4 buckets always remain at 9, 8, 8, and 6 games, respectively.
 


Couple key things

OSU down to 73. 3 more spots and that loss goes Q2

Michigan and Missouri free falls have them with the potential to fall to Q3 and Q4(can’t have it happen) respectively.

Need all 3 to regain some sort of pulse
 



SelectionSunday said:
Thanks.

Admittedly, unlike past seasons I'm shifting the buckets around as the season progresses based on current team NET rankings. The one thing I'm not messing with is the number of games in each bucket. The 4 buckets always remain at 9, 8, 8, and 6 games, respectively.
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You sneaky SOB I did not notice that. Like a fool I follow you blindly.
 



If we win out at home and beat either Illinois or Purdue on the road. One BTT win gets us in, right?
 



Go Gophs said:
If we win out at home and beat either Illinois or Purdue on the road. One BTT win gets us in, right?
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There are so many variables, but generally speaking, I would agree with that assessment. Winning either of those games would be like the equvialent of picking up 2 quality wins. Road wins vs. sure-fire NCAA qualifiers are gold.

Who we play (beat) in the first game would be important, too. Ideally it would be an opponent legitimately in the NCAA at-large mix.
 

Go Gophs said:
If we win out at home and beat either Illinois or Purdue on the road. One BTT win gets us in, right?
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That would have us praying.

That’s still only a 11-9 regular season finish. Would finish with 2 Q1 wins. If MSU stays.

That would be very shaky. And there’s potential that Michigan and Mizzou losses get worse.

I think they need to start with 12-8 regular season
 


With NCAA relying so heavily on NET rankings I doubt the Gophers have a realistic chance to make the tournament as an at-large team. However, there is still a chance through the BTT, which we have NEVER won. Get the double bye, hope you don't draw Purdue at any point, and win it. Simple.
 

MUgopher32 said:
That would have us praying.

That’s still only a 11-9 regular season finish. Would finish with 2 Q1 wins. If MSU stays.

That would be very shaky. And there’s potential that Michigan and Mizzou losses get worse.

I think they need to start with 12-8 regular season
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21 wins out of the Big Ten with a winning conference record? I bet it's never been left out in the history of the league, but I could be wrong.
 


Go Gophs said:
21 wins out of the Big Ten with a winning conference record? I bet it's never been left out in the history of the league, but I could be wrong.
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It’s all about the metrics. 2 Q1 would be a bad start. Bad non con. Likely a poor Net. And like I said potential for more bad losses.

As of now, we are still a Q3 home loss for teams.

I’d be pretty stunned if 11-9 works. Also the committee doesn’t put much emphasis on tourney week, unless you win it.
 

Go Gophs said:
21 wins out of the Big Ten with a winning conference record? I bet it's never been left out in the history of the league, but I could be wrong.
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PSU in 2009 was 22-11(10-8)
Iowa in 2013 was 21-12(9-9)
Nebraska in 2018 was 22-10(13-5)
PSU in 2018 was 21-13(9-9)

There have also been a bunch of teams left out with winning conference records, short of 21 wins as well. If we only get to 21 wins, we won't be making it either. Just not enough on the resume.
 

Mizzou dropped 9 more spots in the NeT

15 away from being Q4

That would be the nail.
 


MonikerSchmoniker45 said:
I'm not so sure. The committee seems to put more stock in the end of season results. Just gotta take care of business moving forward.
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They look at everything. Loads of teams have gotten buried for bad non cons.

Committe looks at your whole resume. Wins in November count just as much as February. Same as losses. It’s all about how good your schedule is and who you beat.

Doing well in conference is key. If the conference is strong and you beat good teams. But it doesn’t mean a ton. WVU went 7-11 last year and danced. And there a reason why 15 more mid majors a year don’t make the dance. Everything matters.

Another common misconception is conference tournaments they mean very little. Basically nothing for seeding unless you win it.

A win or two are basically tiebreakers if one thrives and another flops.
 

MUgopher32 said:
They look at everything. Loads of teams have gotten buried for bad non cons.

Committe looks at your whole resume. Wins in November count just as much as February. Same as losses. It’s all about how good your schedule is and who you beat.

Doing well in conference is key. If the conference is strong and you beat good teams. But it doesn’t mean a ton. WVU went 7-11 last year and danced. And there a reason why 15 more mid majors a year don’t make the dance. Everything matters.

Another common misconception is conference tournaments they mean very little. Basically nothing for seeding unless you win it.

A win or two are basically tiebreakers if one thrives and another flops.
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I'm not saying you're wrong, but I doubt one bad loss at the beginning of the year is "the nail."
 

MonikerSchmoniker45 said:
I'm not saying you're wrong, but I doubt one bad loss at the beginning of the year is "the nail."
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That would be a Q4 on a already bad resume from a metrics and good wins stand point.

Northwestern has a Q4 and it’s buried their metrics even with good wins and keeps them in the 7-10 seed range
 

MUgopher32 said:
They look at everything. Loads of teams have gotten buried for bad non cons.

Committe looks at your whole resume. Wins in November count just as much as February. Same as losses. It’s all about how good your schedule is and who you beat.

Doing well in conference is key. If the conference is strong and you beat good teams. But it doesn’t mean a ton. WVU went 7-11 last year and danced. And there a reason why 15 more mid majors a year don’t make the dance. Everything matters.

Another common misconception is conference tournaments they mean very little. Basically nothing for seeding unless you win it.

A win or two are basically tiebreakers if one thrives and another flops.
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You're not wrong, but if we make the tournament, it will be because we stacked Q1 wins (on the road) in the remaining Big Ten schedule. Missouri being Q3/Q4 is irrelevant, although I understand the sentiment that staying in Q3 would be ideal.

One blemish won't kill you, especially if you have 4/5 road victories. Bubble teams are rarely good on the road. With some of Pitino's bubble teams, our biggest blemish was the lack of road wins. It won't be an issue with this team if we end up on the bubble.
 

topos said:
You're not wrong, but if we make the tournament, it will be because we stacked Q1 wins (on the road) in the remaining Big Ten schedule. Missouri being Q3/Q4 is irrelevant, although I understand the sentiment that staying in Q3 would be ideal.

One blemish won't kill you, especially if you have 4/5 road victories. Bubble teams are rarely good on the road. With some of Pitino's bubble teams, our biggest blemish was the lack of road wins. It won't be an issue with this team if we end up on the bubble.
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Always lots of talk of bad losses. Bad losses punish the numbers but it is more important who you beat than who you lose to. Who you beat says a lot more about upside than losses do about downside. We can wring our hands about Mizzou, but terrible SOS hurts us most. Reduced chances for quality wins and depressed the metrics. I’ve always been an advocate of playing better small conference teams. The difference in NET playing a 175 MVC team and a 325 SWAC team is huge.
 

How is Mizzou that bad? Sheeesh they have fallen off the cliff.

I would think if we win all home games, win 2 out of 3 road games (IA, NEB, NU), and win 1 against PUR or IL, we'd be in.

That is asking A LOT, but I think that's what it takes not including any BTT games.

The Big 10 is weak and it hurts us bad. We have zero out of conference wins worth a damn.
 

Block M said:
With NCAA relying so heavily on NET rankings I doubt the Gophers have a realistic chance to make the tournament as an at-large team. However, there is still a chance through the BTT, which we have NEVER won. Get the double bye, hope you don't draw Purdue at any point, and win it. Simple.
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This is most likely correct. But historically, the best time to play Purdue is in March. If the team needs a good showing in the BTT, I wouldn't mind drawing them in the semis. A win there could make the championship moot on Selection Sunday. Thrilled this even a conversation in February.
 

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