Even with poor non-conference slate, 21 wins should get the Gophers a ticket to the Madness

SelectionSunday

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Back by popular demand (wink, wink), I give you the Gophers' 2023-24 "Road to a NCAA Tournament Bid".

Please note, I AM NOT PREDICTING THE GOPHERS WILL MAKE THE NCAA TOURNAMENT. I'm simply offering up a path that should safely land the Maroon & Gold in the Madness that is March. This season, I think that (pre-Big Ten Tournament) number is 21.

Don't Screw It Up (go 9-0) -- finished 9-0
Florida Gulf Coast (W 77-57) — Gophers -8.5
USC-Upstate (W 67-53) — Gophers -10.5
Ball State (W 80-63) -- Gophers -11.5
UTSA (W 102-77) — Gophers -11.5
New Orleans (W 97-64) — Gophers -12.5
Maine (W 80-62) — Gophers -14.5
Bethune-Cookman (W 80-60) -- Gophers -17.5
Arkansas-Pine Bluff -- (W 86-67) — Gophers -19.5
IUPUI (W 101-65) -- Gophers -23.5

50/50 Balls (go 5-3) -- 5-3
@ Michigan (W 73-71) -- Gophers +6.5
@ Indiana (L 62-74) -- Gophers +4.5
@ Penn State (W 83-74) -- Gophers +3.5
Mizzou (L 68-70) — Gophers +2.5
Maryland (W 65-62) Gophers -1.5
Rutgers (W 81-70) — Gophers -4.5
Indiana (L 58-70) -- Gophers -5.5
Penn State (W 75-70) — Gophers -6.5

Likely Underdog But Doable (go 5-3) -- 3-4
@ Ohio State (L 74-84) — Gophers +12.5
@ Iowa (L 85-90) -- Gophers +6.5
vs. San Francisco (L 58-76) -- Gophers +4.5
Nebraska (W 76-75) — Gophers +2.5
Northwestern (W 75-66) -- Gophers +1.5
Iowa (L 77-86) -- Gophers -1.5
Ohio State (W 88-79) — Gophers -2.5
@ Northwestern

Heavy Lifting (go 2-4) -- 1-5
@ Purdue (L 76-84) — Gophers +16.5
@ Illinois (L 97-105) — Gophers +11.5
@ Michigan St. (L 66-76) -- Gophers +11.5
@ Nebraska (L 55-73) — Gophers +6.5
Michigan St. (W 59-56) -- Gophers +3.5
Wisconsin (L 59-61) — Gophers +3.5

If sitting at 20 wins heading to the Big Ten Tournament, the Gophers should plan on winning at least 2 games at the Target Center just to get on the bubble.
 
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Would love to be in Omaha as a 7/10 seed West. Not 8/9 in South as that would probably be Kansas in second round.
 




Back by popular demand (wink, wink), I give you the Gophers' 2023-24 "Road To A NCAA Tournament Bid".

Please note, I AM NOT PREDICTING THE GOPHERS WILL MAKE THE NCAA TOURNAMENT. I'm simply offering up a path that should safely land the Maroon & Gold in the Madness that is March. This season, I think that (pre-Big Ten Tournament) number is 21. For the record, the "Heavy Lifting" checkbox includes my top 5 projected teams.

Don't Screw It Up (must go 9-0) -- currently 1-0
Bethune-Cookman (W, 80-60) -- Point spread result: Gophers covered -17.5
UTSA
USC-Upstate
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
New Orleans
Florida Gulf Coast
IUPUI
Ball State
Maine

"50/50 Balls" (go 5-3) -- currently 0-0
vs. San Francisco
Nebraska
Iowa
@ Penn State
Northwestern
Rutgers
Ohio State
Penn State

Likely Underdog but Doable (go 5-3) -- currently 0-0
Mizzou
@ Ohio State
@ Michigan
@ Indiana
@ Iowa
@ Nebraska
Indiana
@ Northwestern

Heavy Lifting (go 2-4) -- currently 0-0
Maryland
@ Michigan State
Wisconsin
Michigan State
@ Purdue
@ Illinois

If sitting at 20 wins heading to the Big Ten Tournament, the Gophers should plan on winning at least 2 games at the Target Center just to get on the bubble.
If it wasn't for the likely underdog and heavy lifting categories, I would be confident.

I thought Ohio State would be better than you seem to have them listed. Not so much, huh?
 






If it wasn't for the likely underdog and heavy lifting categories, I would be confident.

I thought Ohio State would be better than you seem to have them listed. Not so much, huh?
I picked Ohio State 6th and in the NCAA, but a team I’d give the Gophers a chance to beat.
 










After the last couple of years, I'd be happy with an NIT bid and no major injuries...
Sadly my goals have changed. I would love to see us in the Big Dance, however.
The 10-12 B10 wins would be great.
 
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Given our historically weak OOC, I think we may need a total of 22 or even 23 wins. As a point of reference Clemson won 23 games last year and didn't make it. They had the #302 OOC SOS. We will most likely have about 14/15 Q3/Q4 wins. So finishing with 21 would only give us 6/7 against the top 2 quadrants. I understand the ACC was very bad last year, so that will help more if we get to this point, but 21-11 just scream NIT to me
 

Given our historically weak OOC, I think we may need a total of 22 or even 23 wins. As a point of reference Clemson won 23 games last year and didn't make it. They had the #302 OOC SOS. We will most likely have about 14/15 Q3/Q4 wins. So finishing with 21 would only give us 6/7 against the top 2 quadrants. I understand the ACC was very bad last year, so that will help more if we get to this point, but 21-11 just scream NIT to me

Valid point, but the ACC was historically bad last year. The MW even finished above them at the end of the year.

I said this awhile ago on the schedule thread, but this schedule hurts the postseason chances of this team significantly. Not saying I predict this team will go to the NCAA tournament, but this schedule will make it an uphill battle all year. The NCAA committee pays less attention to the bubble teams that have cupcake non-conference schedules, and there's been multiple teams over the past few years with really good power-6 conference records that were left out of the dance because of it.
 
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Why not 0-6 Heavy and 7-1 50/50?
Especially with that non-conference schedule, a (assumed) bubble team needs to have a couple major notches in its belt, and preferably on the road. Can’t just get by beating similar ilk teams. A resume that includes a couple wins over teams like Purdue/MSU (assuming Sparty bounces back after opening loss) would carry a lot more weight.
 
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Valid point, but the ACC was historically bad last year. The MW even finished above them at the end of the year.

I said this awhile ago on the schedule thread, but this schedule hurts the postseason chances of this team significantly. Not saying I predict this team will go to the NCAA tournament, but this schedule will make it an uphill battle all year. The NCAA committee pays less attention to the bubble teams that have cupcake non-conference schedules, and there's been multiple teams over the past few years with really good power-6 conference records that were left out of the dance because of it.

I don't doubt that's true but, personally, I'd rather have 18 wins with a weaker schedule than 14 with a stronger one. Even if you don't make the NCAA tournament with the former, you have more minutes of enjoyment during the regular season and a chance at the NIT. Always remember: the regular season is usually about 31 games (with an undetermined but small number in a conference tournament). You have to be very good (or very lucky) to play even 3 games in the NCAA tournament.

I appreciate this thread and I'd be thrilled (and more than a little shocked) if we got 21 regular season wins but my goal for the team this season is to provide us fans with more good moments than bad ones.
 

I admit I don't quite understand the whole "Quad 1" "Quad 2" stuff.

But I think it means that you get more credit for beating 'good' teams.

ergo, if the Gophers non-conference schedule is considered weak, then the Gophers will need to win some upsets in conference action.

that may be a very long shot, but I won't say it's impossible.

admittedly, any 'bad' losses in the non-conference will make things more difficult.
 

Based on my overreaction to watching 2 minutes of their first game where they had a 3 in the air that would have given them a lead with 15 seconds left against IU, FGCU may need to be moved into the second category....
 

Based on my overreaction to watching 2 minutes of their first game where they had a 3 in the air that would have given them a lead with 15 seconds left against IU, FGCU may need to be moved into the second category....
I guess one of their best players was out, too...
 




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