Even with poor non-conference slate, 21 wins should get the Gophers a ticket to the Madness

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Johnnyboy18 said:
On what? Kenpom has San Francisco above them
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t-rank has them as FGCU 122, SF 130.

Kenpom likes SF a lot more at 88. FGCU is at 135 on kenpom, which is still much higher than was expected when they were scheduled (FYI - our old B1G friend Pat Chambers is the coach there), and still fits the point I was making that this could be more competitive than the normal buy game.

It's really early, so the analytics are still screwy.
 

formerlybis said:
t-rank has them as FGCU 122, SF 130.

Kenpom likes SF a lot more at 88. FGCU is at 135 on kenpom, which is still much higher than was expected when they were scheduled (FYI - our old B1G friend Pat Chambers is the coach there), and still fits the point I was making that this could be more competitive than the normal buy game.

It's really early, so the analytics are still screwy.
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USC Upstate is #228. 6 spots ahead of St. Thomas and well ahead of both Bethune Cookman and UTSA.
 


fan of Ray Williams said:
Geno is tremendous, obviously. They were in the Big East and had been doing a Conference Tourney since 1983. There is no arguing that he does what you say.
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Let’s hope not. ESPN tried to televise his practice session but had to bleep out every 5th. word(go to utube). If what he “suggested” by his words , he would be in jail.
 









How are the damn spreads so close?? Only off by 0.5 for .... [checks notes] Minnesota vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff ???

Come on....
 

The Dons are favored by 4.5.

This is the last semi-interesting non-conference game, and the only one away from home, though not officially a road game.
 

With the embarrassing loss to San Fran, Gophers fall to 0-1 in Hodger's ""50/50 Balls" (go 5-3) -- 0-0" bucket.

Go Gophers!!
 



Take it FWIW, but according to RPI projections, we're projected to finish 0-20 in the Big 10. With only THREE wins against the top 300. Statistically, our best shot at a B1G win is against Nebraska and PSU at home. Guess we'll find out soon.
 


Gophers7633 said:
Take it FWIW, but according to RPI projections, we're projected to finish 0-20 in the Big 10. With only THREE wins against the top 300. Statistically, our best shot at a B1G win is against Nebraska and PSU at home. Guess we'll find out soon.
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Brutal. That's why next Wednesday's game is huge IMO. If they can't win that, pull the plug.
 

Gophers7633 said:
Take it FWIW, but according to RPI projections, we're projected to finish 0-20 in the Big 10. With only THREE wins against the top 300. Statistically, our best shot at a B1G win is against Nebraska and PSU at home. Guess we'll find out soon.
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Another site, t-rank, is predicting 6-14, but MN is only actually favored against PSU. That site gives you the % chance of winning each game, and there are several in the 40s, which is basically a toss-up. They're listing Nebraska as a 35% chance,
 

The Gophers absolutely own the “Don’t Screw It Up” bucket, improve to 5-0 with 33-point thrashing of mighty New Orleans.
 





15 of our remaining 21 games are against teams outside the top 50 in the NET. I'm not saying we are going to make the tournament, but we would have to do significant damage away from home. As it stands now, we only have 4 games that would qualify as a Q1/Q2 game at home with only one being a Q1 game(Wisconsin). In terms of tournament prospects, that Missouri loss is a killer. I don't think Missouri will play good enough to get that to a Q2 loss, so it's a bad loss on the resume, on top of us not getting hardly any Q1 opportunities due to the poor play of the B1G.

I think we may need to get to 12 regular seasons wins to feel good about it. Based on how teams are playing/rated, MUST win games are home vs. MD, MSU, Rutgers, PSU and IU. That gets to 6. Split the games against Iowa, OSU, NW and Wisconsin. That gets us to 8 wins. Can we then get road wins at IU, PSU, and some combination of at Michigan, at MSU, at Iowa, at Nebraska and at NW. Will something like 6-9 against Q1/Q2 (with most being Q2) competition be enough for at large consideration with a Q3 loss as well?
 

Gophers7633 said:
15 of our remaining 21 games are against teams outside the top 50 in the NET. I'm not saying we are going to make the tournament, but we would have to do significant damage away from home. As it stands now, we only have 4 games that would qualify as a Q1/Q2 game at home with only one being a Q1 game(Wisconsin). In terms of tournament prospects, that Missouri loss is a killer. I don't think Missouri will play good enough to get that to a Q2 loss, so it's a bad loss on the resume, on top of us not getting hardly any Q1 opportunities due to the poor play of the B1G.

I think we may need to get to 12 regular seasons wins to feel good about it. Based on how teams are playing/rated, MUST win games are home vs. MD, MSU, Rutgers, PSU and IU. That gets to 6. Split the games against Iowa, OSU, NW and Wisconsin. That gets us to 8 wins. Can we then get road wins at IU, PSU, and some combination of at Michigan, at MSU, at Iowa, at Nebraska and at NW. Will something like 6-9 against Q1/Q2 (with most being Q2) competition be enough for at large consideration with a Q3 loss as well?
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That you are even talking seriously about a tournament appearance demonstrates your confidence is much higher than mine.

We knew the non conference schedule was horrible and designed for wins and “learning “ not getting into the tournament.

We’ll never know if scheduling would have made a difference or not. But it would serve them right if they come out way above expectations in a weaker than expected conference and the horrible non conference schedule does them in.
 

Holy Man said:
That you are even talking seriously about a tournament appearance demonstrates your confidence is much higher than mine.

We knew the non conference schedule was horrible and designed for wins and “learning “ not getting into the tournament.

We’ll never know if scheduling would have made a difference or not. But it would serve them right if they come out way above expectations in a weaker than expected conference and the horrible non conference schedule does them in.
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I don't think we'll make it, just laying out a potential path given the terrible OOC and the B1G being way down. If we had our 2017 or 2019 team, we'd be looking at a 2nd/3rd place finish in this version of the B1G. It sucks we aren't better because after Purdue, this league is wide open.
 

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