Bubblicious Friday: Productive Day On The Bubble For Gophers

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tjgopher said:
Can you point me to the bubble teams you're talking about that are better from that standpoint?
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Minnesota's top 10 wins:
5 Wisconsin
20 Ohio State
54 Iowa
55 Florida State
72 @ Richmond
98 Indiana
112 @ Penn State
112 Penn State
112 vs Penn State
125 @ Northwestern

Total: 765

Arkansas
19 Kentucky
19 @ Kentucky
47 vs Minnesota
53 SMU
72 Clemson
74 Georgia
77 LSU
85 Ole Miss
110 Louisiana-Lafayette
114 @ Vanderbilt

Total: 670

California
1 Arizona
28 @ Oregon
31 Colorado
45 @ Stanford
73 vs Arkansas
99 @ Oregon State
100 Washington
100 @ Washington
106 UC Irvine
117 Fresno State

Total: 700

Iowa
9 Michigan
23 @ Ohio State
41 Nebraska
46 vs Xavier
47 Minnesota
64 @ Illinois
101 vs UTEP
113 @ Penn State
123 Northwestern
123 @ Northwestern

Total: 690


SMU (A joke that they are in)

15 Cincinnati
26 Connecticut
26 @ Connecticut
35 Memphis
124 Sam Houston State
133 @ Wyoming
145 vs Texas A&M
146 @ Houston
146 Houston
154 Rhode Island

Total: 950


Stanford
19 UCLA
20 @ Connecticut
29 @ Oregon
42 Arizona State
42 vs Arizona State
63 @ California
78 Utah
100 Washington
125 Northwestern
139 South Dakota State

Total: 657

Xavier
7 Creighton
16 vs Cincinnati
41 Tennessee
50 Providence
65 Saint John's
65 @ Saint John's
69 Georgetown
90 Marquette
90 vs Marquette
111 Wake Forest

Total: 604

Nebraska
5 Wisconsin
20 Ohio State
24 @ Michigan State
48 Minnesota
67 vs Georgia
69 Illinois
98 Indiana
98 @ Indiana
110 Miami
112 Penn State

Total: 651
 

Kansas State

3 Kansas
9 Iowa State
17 vs Gonzaga
26 Oklahoma
28 George Washington
37 Texas
45 Oklahoma State
90 West Virginia
92 Ole Miss
120 Texas Tech

Total: 467


Dayton:
17 Massachusetts
18 vs Gonzaga
27 @ Saint Louis
30 George Washington
58 Iona
60 vs California
69 Richmond
84 @ Saint Bonaventure
87 @ Ole Miss
96 La Salle

Total: 546
 

If wandering's post is correct, I don't think it's a crazy thought for us to beat out Southern Miss, Missouri, and SMU for the last spot, assuming there are no more bid stealers. We still have a shot.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
 

On the "bright" side, if we are left out it will be the highest RPI for a Big Ten team to not make the tourney in quite some time, if not ever.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

Games of importance today
Saint Joe's over St. Bonaventure 12:30 CBSSN-Saint Joe's is probably already in and the only way St. Bonaventure can get in is the auto bid
Duke over NC State 2:00 ESPN-NC State probably needs the auto bid to get in but a win over Duke would definitely at least give them hope on Sunday.
Kentucky over Georgia 2:00 ABC-Georgia is another team that probably only gets in through the auto bid.
Creighton over Providence 7:30 FS1-Providence is still probably in even with the loss.
I guess Ohio State winning and Michigan State losing today would also help some.

If all these results go our way I would feel decent about our chances tomorrow. Right now in my bracket I have the Gophers as one of the last teams in along with SMU, Dayton, Providence, Saint Joes, Iowa and in ahead of BYU, Missouri, Arkansas, and Southern Miss who I don't even really think of as a bubble team. Yeah they have a good record but one of their best wins is over NDSU which shows the lack of top wins they have.
 


It all depends on the criteria they feel is most important when making the decision.

Is it most top 100 wins?
Is it record (percentage vs Top 100 teams)
Is it bad losses? Is it the quantity of bad losses, or the quality of the loss (RPI 120 vs RPI 235)

The Gophers are weak in quality of their top 10 wins.
They are weak on winning percentage against the top 100.
They are weak on road games.

I don't understand how SMU in any of these cases fits it. They have two wins vs UConn and that seems to be all they need. Cincinnati and Memphis are okay wins, but I think both of those teams are largely overrated from playing in an easy conference where the majority of the teams are easy W's.
 

Goldy Gopher said:
Games of importance today
Saint Joe's over St. Bonaventure 12:30 CBSSN-Saint Joe's is probably already in and the only way St. Bonaventure can get in is the auto bid
Duke over NC State 2:00 ESPN-NC State probably needs the auto bid to get in but a win over Duke would definitely at least give them hope on Sunday.
Kentucky over Georgia 2:00 ABC-Georgia is another team that probably only gets in through the auto bid.
Creighton over Providence 7:30 FS1-Providence is still probably in even with the loss.
I guess Ohio State winning and Michigan State losing today would also help some.

If all these results go our way I would feel decent about our chances tomorrow. Right now in my bracket I have the Gophers as one of the last teams in along with SMU, Dayton, Providence, Saint Joes, Iowa and in ahead of BYU, Missouri, Arkansas, and Southern Miss who I don't even really think of as a bubble team. Yeah they have a good record but one of their best wins is over NDSU which shows the lack of top wins they have.
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Since we played WI three times this year and MSU only once we actually want WI to win today which would help our RPI more than if MSU won
 

XMan said:
Since we played WI three times this year and MSU only once we actually want WI to win today which would help our RPI more than if MSU won
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If you look again I wrote we want Michigan State to lose which was just another way of saying what you said without having to say we want Wisconsin to win haha.
 

Not buying the top ten wins argument. Had we won at purdue and at home against nw we'd be a lock, and the top ten wins would be the same

After rpi, I think you go to the math models: kenpom, sagarin
 



Goldy Gopher said:
If you look again I wrote we want Michigan State to lose which was just another way of saying what you said without having to say we want Wisconsin to win haha.
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I much prefer thinking of it as "wanting MSU to lose" than thinking of it as "wanting Wisconsin to win."
 



This is like switching around TV stations until you find a weather forecast you like!
 



Indeed, I have an outcome in mind and I searched for supporting data and ignore 'bad' data
If stat junkie proves reliable, poor hawkeyes :)
 

GopherOhana said:
Indeed, I have an outcome in mind and I searched for supporting data and ignore 'bad' data
If stat junkie proves reliable, poor hawkeyes :)
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Wow. He's been as accurate as Lunardi over the last several years. The bubble is a lot less clear this time, it seems.
 


XMan said:
Since we played WI three times this year and MSU only once we actually want WI to win today which would help our RPI more than if MSU won
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Nope.

There is never a good reason to root for Bucky. I hope Coach Izzo rolls them over. RPI be damned. Go Sparty!
 



Face The Facts said:
On the "bright" side, if we are left out it will be the highest RPI for a Big Ten team to not make the tourney in quite some time, if not ever.
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IIRC it would be the best RPI for *any* major conference team not to make the tourney since the field expanded.
 

GopherOhana said:
Wow
http://statjunkie.org/#Bubble In
Shocked

They've missed one at large each of the last two years
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I'd like to take hope from that, but the fact that they have Arkansas as less than 1% chance to make the field makes me skeptical of the whole thing.

And it's not that hard, if you just follow a site like this, to get all the teams right except one or two by the time selection sunday rolls around. In past years it's been more clear than this year. (Unfortunately might still end up clear this year if a couple of these bubble teams still playing win today).
 

Goldy Gopher said:
Games of importance today
Saint Joe's over St. Bonaventure 12:30 CBSSN-Saint Joe's is probably already in and the only way St. Bonaventure can get in is the auto bid
Duke over NC State 2:00 ESPN-NC State probably needs the auto bid to get in but a win over Duke would definitely at least give them hope on Sunday.
Kentucky over Georgia 2:00 ABC-Georgia is another team that probably only gets in through the auto bid.
Creighton over Providence 7:30 FS1-Providence is still probably in even with the loss.
I guess Ohio State winning and Michigan State losing today would also help some.
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I think a Wisconsin-Ohio State big ten final would help us slightly mathematically, but even more so anecdotally (to say we beat the top 2 finishers in arguably the best or second best conference in the land). Highly unlikely to happen though.
 

Face The Facts said:
Minnesota's top 10 wins:
5 Wisconsin
20 Ohio State
54 Iowa
55 Florida State
72 @ Richmond
98 Indiana
112 @ Penn State
112 Penn State
112 vs Penn State
125 @ Northwestern

Total: 765
Click to expand...

You're right that our "best 10 wins" don't compare well with some of the other bubblers (though a few of your examples I would no longer consider bubblers). That's kind of a cherry picked stat, though ... what's so magic about best 10? Our best 2 are better than nearly all the other bubblers. And really you should consider ALL the wins, which is what RPI does, and we compare well on RPI.

Like you said in another post, it really just depends on what stat they choose to look at. If we make it, I expect the committee chair when interviewed will say, "look at Minnesota's strength of schedule," and if we don't, they'll say we didn't have enough top-100 wins or didn't have enough quality road/neutral wins. (The latter of which drives me nuts, because we only had 4 neutral games all year and two of them were vs top 10 teams, and we did beat a quality non-conf road opponent in Richmond at full strength and it's not our fault they tanked at the end of the year due to defections and injury).
 

If Wisconsin wins the BTT, gets a number one seed
That helps our resume
 



How are we looking today? I just sat down for some ball. Good news or bad news on the bubble front?
 

afurry91 said:
How are we looking today? I just sat down for some ball. Good news or bad news on the bubble front?
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Truthfully, there's really nothing make-or-break today. OSU and Wiscy winning helps slightly.
 

Face The Facts said:
Minnesota's top 10 wins:
5 Wisconsin
20 Ohio State
54 Iowa
55 Florida State
72 @ Richmond
98 Indiana
112 @ Penn State
112 Penn State
112 vs Penn State
125 @ Northwestern

Total: 765

Arkansas
19 Kentucky
19 @ Kentucky
47 vs Minnesota
53 SMU
72 Clemson
74 Georgia
77 LSU
85 Ole Miss
110 Louisiana-Lafayette
114 @ Vanderbilt

Total: 670

California
1 Arizona
28 @ Oregon
31 Colorado
45 @ Stanford
73 vs Arkansas
99 @ Oregon State
100 Washington
100 @ Washington
106 UC Irvine
117 Fresno State

Total: 700

Iowa
9 Michigan
23 @ Ohio State
41 Nebraska
46 vs Xavier
47 Minnesota
64 @ Illinois
101 vs UTEP
113 @ Penn State
123 Northwestern
123 @ Northwestern

Total: 690


SMU (A joke that they are in)

15 Cincinnati
26 Connecticut
26 @ Connecticut
35 Memphis
124 Sam Houston State
133 @ Wyoming
145 vs Texas A&M
146 @ Houston
146 Houston
154 Rhode Island

Total: 950


Stanford
19 UCLA
20 @ Connecticut
29 @ Oregon
42 Arizona State
42 vs Arizona State
63 @ California
78 Utah
100 Washington
125 Northwestern
139 South Dakota State

Total: 657

Xavier
7 Creighton
16 vs Cincinnati
41 Tennessee
50 Providence
65 Saint John's
65 @ Saint John's
69 Georgetown
90 Marquette
90 vs Marquette
111 Wake Forest

Total: 604

Nebraska
5 Wisconsin
20 Ohio State
24 @ Michigan State
48 Minnesota
67 vs Georgia
69 Illinois
98 Indiana
98 @ Indiana
110 Miami
112 Penn State

Total: 651
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You spent two months being the #1 cheerleader telling us how fine the Gophers resume was. The last week you've been the #1 board pessimist. Why? Nothing really changed as far as the Gophers themselves.

Bottom line is if the SOS/Dre's injury count for something, we have a shot. If they don't, we don't. I'm pretty sure they're not looking at lists like this. That's the whole point of looking at the RPI.
 


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