Bubblicious Friday: Productive Day On The Bubble For Gophers

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WindyCityGopher said:
Nebraska is still going to get in. I can't believe the 4th place team in the B1G gets left out.
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Didn't Penn State miss out on the tournament a few years ago with that kind of finish? They were either 10-8 or 11-7.

Thanks wikipedia. They were 10-8 T-4th in '08-09 and were NIT champs.
 

RPI's before and after:

Before Nebraska and Dayton lost:

Stanford 38 0.5898
Dayton 39 0.5888
Pittsburgh 40 0.5871
Nebraska 41 0.5864
Arizona State 42 0.5862
Saint Joseph's 43 0.5853
Oklahoma State 44 0.5851
Tennessee 45 0.5847
Xavier 46 0.5844
Minnesota 47 0.5834
Harvard 48 0.5824
Kansas State 49 0.58
Missouri 50 0.5799
Providence 51 0.5777
SMU 52 0.5753
Florida State 53 0.5743
Iowa 54 0.5741


AFTER

Saint Joseph's 38 0.5915
Stanford 39 0.5897
Pittsburgh 40 0.5871
Arizona State 41 0.5862
Oklahoma State 42 0.5851
Dayton 43 0.585
Tennessee 44 0.5847
Xavier 45 0.5844
Minnesota 46 0.5833
Nebraska 47 0.5828
Harvard 48 0.5824
Kansas State 49 0.5799
Missouri 50 0.5799
Providence 51 0.5777
SMU 52 0.5753
Florida State 53 0.5743
Iowa 54 0.574
 


BarnBoy said:
We probably shouldn't beat Wisconsin, because then it will devalue our Top 10 win against them.
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The even better argument is if Wisconsin wins, that improves our SOS and makes our RPI go up incrementally by one thousandth of a percentage point.
 

RPI's will change through the weekend. Everyone sit back and relax:cool02:
 


PitinoFan said:
I don't see how a case can be made for Dayton getting in ahead of the Gophers.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Dayton.html
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The announcers doing the Atl-10 tournament were both saying that they think Dayton will be in, no questions asked.

But then again you wonder how many teams you want to take from the 6th (Atl-10), 7th (SEC), and 8th (AMERICAN) best conferences for conference RPI. The 9th best conference is the West Coast conference which will get two teams.
 

Dr.Dan said:
RPI's will change through the weekend. Everyone sit back and relax:cool02:
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I didn't see it either. I heard on the drive home it was 16 or 18 points, then I tuned it in with a 90 seconds left and a tied score.
 

so if we lose, we drop just below Missouri and K State?
 

Face The Facts said:
The announcers doing the Atl-10 tournament were both saying that they think Dayton will be in, no questions asked.

But then again you wonder how many teams you want to take from the 6th (Atl-10), 7th (SEC), and 8th (AMERICAN) best conferences for conference RPI. The 9th best conference is the West Coast conference which will get two teams.
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The A-10's regular season champion is looking at a 6 seed or worse. Give them all the bids!
 




Ohio State has a way of winning these BTT games. Uncanny.
 





What a choke job by Nebraska. Probably doesn't hurt them that much, but now they might be a possibility for a play-in game I suppose.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The Bubblers (16 battling for 9 spots)
Southern Miss (29) -- vs. Louisiana Tech, 5:30 p.m. (Conference USA semifinals)
BYU (34) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Dayton (39) -- vs. Saint Joseph's, 1:30 p.m. (Atlantic 10 quarterfinals)
Arizona State (42) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Saint Joseph's (43) -- vs. Dayton, 1:30 p.m. (Atlantic 10 quarterfinals)
Tennessee (44) -- vs. South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (SEC quarterfinals)
GOPHERS (47) -- vs. Wisconsin, 5:30 p.m. (Big Ten quarterfinals)
Missouri (49) -- vs. Florida, noon (SEC quarterfinals)
Kansas State (50) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Providence (51) -- vs. Seton Hall, 6 p.m. (Big East semifinals)
Florida State (52) -- vs. Virginia, 11 a.m. (ACC quarterfinals)
SMU (53) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Iowa (54) -- SEASON COMPLETED
Green Bay (57) -- SEASON COMPLETED
NC State (62) -- vs. Syracuse, 6 p.m. (ACC quarterfinals)
Illinois (64) -- vs. Michigan, 11 a.m. (Big Ten quarterfinals)
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Have to assume St. Joe's and Tennessee played their way in today, and Illinois and FSU are out, GB probably doesn't have a chance. We have to hope NC State loses tomorrow and doesn't steal another bid. Then we're looking at 7 left between:

Southern Miss (34) - great record but 131 SOS
ASU (42) - very likely in
Dayton (44) - ridiculous that A10 may get 6 teams, same as B1G if we don't make it ... but interesting choice for committee w First Four at Dayton
Nebraska (47) - very likely in, at least over us.
Providence (48) - have to assume they're in, even if RPI drops a tad below us tomorrow, since they made Big East finals
Minnesota (49) - really have to hope for Wisconsin-OSU B1G final, bc our other opponents were disaster tonight
Missouri (50) - hammered by TN last reg season game, needed 2OT to beat bad TAM team in tourney opener... getting drilled by FL basically equiv to us getting drilled by Wiscy
K State (51) - interesting case bc assumed a lock, but why? And why should Big 12 get 7 of 10 teams in, simply for beating each other all year?
SMU (53) - 113 SOS, only 4 top 100 wins, several terrible losses incl tourney opener
Iowa (55) - very similar to our resume, and while 1 game ahead of us in conf, finished 1 rd behind us in tourney.


So, the way I see it, *if* things go our way, 4 bids would be left to go to 4 of Southern Miss, Dayton, Minnesota, Mizzou, K State, SMU, and Iowa. 4 get in, 3 go home. Crazy after getting blown out tonight, but I could still see a scenario where we are the last team in, ahead of Southern Miss, Mizzou and SMU.
 

Never been a Duke fan but happy to see them hold on and beat Clemson tonight by 1 and now hopefully they can eliminate NC State tomorrow and get rid of another team that could steal a bid. One bubble team that Lunardi has just ahead of us now is BYU and I just can't see them getting in especially after losing their 2nd leading scorer to a torn ACL in their last game.
 

I love how Iowa is not even on Lunardi's last 4 byes. Give me a break.
 

Gophers 7th, 8th, and 9th best wins of the season were vs Penn State.
 


PitinoFan said:
Iowa's 7th, 8th, and 9th best wins are against UTEP (101), Penn State (113), and Northwestern (123).

Were you trying to make a point?
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Compare it to the other bubble teams besides Iowa or SMU. All the other bubblers look better from that standpoint.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

I looked at a few, not all. Florida State and Pitt also have only 6 top 100 wins. Interestingly, Louisville only has 7.
 



Gophers need most everything to go right Saturday and Sunday, certainly, but there's still some hope. Take solace in the fact that teams like Iowa and SMU are generally assumed by most bracketologists (Lunardi included) to be in ahead of the Gophers. I'm not willing to concede that at this point, certainly not SMU.

There's a final positive to take into Saturday. New Mexico just held off Boise State 70-67 in the MWC semis, so there will not be a bid-stealer from that conference. Losses by Providence and NC State, especially, would be helpful tomorrow, if for no other reason they don't get the automatic (Providence) or significantly improve their resume, which NC State would do if it beats Duke.
 


Face The Facts said:
Gophers 7th, 8th, and 9th best wins of the season were vs Penn State.
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And Penn State would be a top-100 team if they had not played us at all this year.

The point is that there are only a few true bubblers we need to beat out, and we may still make it (possibly last in, by my estimation) but probably cannot afford one more bid-stealer from any other conference. St. Joe's probably stole one today by beating Dayton, which itself appears is still likely to make the cut (no great wins but a lot of good ones). Southern Miss put itself in the conversation by losing today, but hopefully still will miss out due to 130-ish SOS and only 1 top 50 win. NC State is in position to steal one if they beat Duke tomorrow. Georgia could steal one by beating Kentucky (though may still need to beat Fl).

IMO there are strong arguments against both Iowa and KSU, but I think they both make it simply based on the herd mindset that they have been "locks" for a while.
 

Face The Facts said:
Compare it to the other bubble teams besides Iowa or SMU. All the other bubblers look better from that standpoint.
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Can you point me to the bubble teams you're talking about that are better from that standpoint?
 

Guys I hate to say this, but our strong strength of schedule is a joke.....especially in the non-conference. We beat up on teams from weak conferences that had good records, but poor RPI's.

Montana 17-13 RPI 183
Coastal Carolina 21-12 RPI 191
Wofford 20-12 RPI 156
South Dakota State 19-12 RPI 145
Nebraska-Omaha 16-14 RPI 214
Texas A&M CC 17-15 RPI 249.

Everyone of those games were also at home.....

Our best wins out of conference were
Richmond 19-14 RPI 68
Florida State 19-13 RPI 52

You throw in Syracuse and Arkansas which had good records too, and our opponents records were very strong....hence the strong strength of schedule based on the way that the RPI looks at strength of schedule.

The RPI's strength of schedule is flawed because it only looks at opponents records. Every other rankings system (KenPom, Saragin, BPI....) that looks at strength of schedule in more ways than just opponents records. That's why if you look at strength of schedule on their sites, the Gophers strength of schedule isn't in the top 10, but more like 20.....which when you consider the B1G schedule they played including Wisconsin three times, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa each twice is about average.
 

That being said, I think Iowa, SMU, Dayton, Southern Miss and Kansas State are all ahead of us, but it wouldn't shock me if we went in ahead of two of those teams. I personally think that the Big 12 is a little better than the B1G....especially teams 1 through 8, that's why I think Kansas State is already in. Iowa is an interesting case, because if we went in ahead of them when they finished ahead of us for the second year in a row, I would be shocked. They really struggled down the stretch though and the Northwestern loss was really bad. Their Saragin rankings, along with KenPom, and BPI are surprisingly high, and most experts don't have them in danger.
 

We just got unlucky that this is the year when the A10 is strong. I think that if the A10 was weak this year we would have a better chance.
 

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