Are We Headed Towards 4 Conferences?

Dave H

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I honestly don't know if you can get Prime Video without getting Prime (I doubt it) but people do sign up for Prime just for the video...it's one of the reasons they bought an NFL package of games.

I can't help you with a survey but the truth is everyone knows that one people sign up for stuff they rarely cancel. That has been what Netflix has banked on since it's inception. It's a well known phenomenon.

We are living in interesting times.
 

Gophers_4life

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Agree that some people just don't care enough to bother canceling a service they hardly ever use.

It eventually adds up, but to each their own
 

Ope3

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I honestly don't know if you can get Prime Video without getting Prime (I doubt it) but people do sign up for Prime just for the video...it's one of the reasons they bought an NFL package of games.

I can't help you with a survey but the truth is everyone knows that one people sign up for stuff they rarely cancel. That has been what Netflix has banked on since it's inception. It's a well known phenomenon.

We are living in interesting times.
Agree that some people just don't care enough to bother canceling a service they hardly ever use.

It eventually adds up, but to each their own
With automatic and paperless billing it's a real easy trap to fall into.
 

Gophers_4life

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With automatic and paperless billing it's a real easy trap to fall into.
It's incredibly easy to cancel. You don't have to talk to a single human. You log in, click on your account, and click the cancel button.

But anyway! :cool:
 

Ope3

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It's incredibly easy to cancel. You don't have to talk to a single human. You log in, click on your account, and click the cancel button.

But anyway! :cool:
I agree on the easy to cancel part, but what I am saying with automatic and paperless billing, some subscribers fall into a trap that they do not even realize they are paying for such services.

Completely oblivious to being charged in the first place.
 
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PMWinSTP

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I honestly don't know if you can get Prime Video without getting Prime (I doubt it) but people do sign up for Prime just for the video...it's one of the reasons they bought an NFL package of games.

I can't help you with a survey but the truth is everyone knows that one people sign up for stuff they rarely cancel. That has been what Netflix has banked on since it's inception. It's a well known phenomenon.

We are living in interesting times.
B1G+ falls in that category.
 

Dave H

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It's incredibly easy to cancel. You don't have to talk to a single human. You log in, click on your account, and click the cancel button.

But anyway! :cool:

Oh it is super easy! (I do it) But no company went broke banking on the laziness of people :ROFLMAO:
 

mngolf

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Monty now reporting that CBS, NBC, FOX willing to pay the difference to add UW and Oregon. But they won't leave PAC until it falls apart due to that being their first choice and B1G not wanting to be seen as destroying the PAC.
 

PMWinSTP

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Monty now reporting that CBS, NBC, FOX willing to pay the difference to add UW and Oregon. But they won't leave PAC until it falls apart due to that being their first choice and B1G not wanting to be seen as destroying the PAC.
For what it's worth...https://www.outkick.com/oregon-and-washington-vetted-and-cleared-to-join-the-big-ten-according-to-new-report/
 



Gophers_4life

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:sneaky:

That Outkick clickbait trash got eviscerated on a college realignment message board I follow.


Indeed, the Big Ten did vet both schools ........... last summer.
 
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Gophers_4life

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Something actually worth your click: https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/05...ur-corners-factor-selection-windows-and-more/

What are the chances of the Pac-12 simply re-upping its media rights contracts with ESPN and Fox?

The Pac-12 could end up partnering with ESPN and Fox — more on that momentarily — but it probably would not be a simple renewal of the existing agreement. It would be a new deal with a new component: The game inventory that has, to this point, been located on the Pac-12 Networks.

The contract signed in 2011 gave ESPN and Fox the right to share 44 regular-season football games, plus the conference championship. The Pac-12 Networks broadcast another 35 (approximately).

Those 35 likely will be included in whatever deal the conference signs this spring with its new broadcast partners. The Pac-12 Networks are going away, at least as a self-sustained media production and distribution company.

Our view, which hasn’t changed over the course of six or seven months, is that ESPN will receive a substantial portion of the Pac-12’s football inventory starting in 2024 while Fox could purchase a small package. It already has the L.A. schools (as part of its Big Ten agreement) and doesn’t need more than one Pac-12 game per week, if that.

That’s one of several factors that distinguish the Pac-12 and Big 12 situations.

Fox needed to renew with the Big 12 because it lost Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC (and ESPN).

Fox doesn’t need to renew with the Pac-12 because it gained USC and UCLA (via its Big Ten agreement).

That said, the loss of USC and UCLA to Fox probably serves as a motivating factor for ESPN.

If it doesn’t partner with the Pac-12, the network would be shut out of the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver and Portland media markets, plus the metropolises in the Big Ten.
 

short ornery norwegian

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Hey, I found a guy on the internet who agrees with me. that means I'm right.

nobody on this board has any real inside information. all we can do is see what other people are reporting. and the reporting is all over the map.

G4L quotes an article from a newspaper in San Jose, CA.

If I wanted to, I could toss out quotes from a newspaper in Salt Lake City that says something very different.

shoot, I ran across a radio host (not Monty) who says Colorado and Arizona could leave the Pac-12 after Memorial Day, because his sources claim the Pac-12 media deal is going to come in at $20-million per school or less.

so it all comes down to this: who do you believe? right now, I just see a lot more people who are pessimistic about the Pac-12 as opposed to optimistic. and if that means Oregon and Washington wind up in the B1G, fine with me.
 

WAGopher

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I don’t have any inside info, but the talk around here (Seattle) is WA and OR are waiting to see what the new Pac deal will be. However, since the current TV contract expires after the next school year, they would like to have the new agreement finished soon. I’ve heard July 1st is a date they’d like to have it done by. And if the deal falls short of expectations, they think schools will start moving, and maybe it will be one or more of the 4 Corner schools that start the dominos falling.

Personally, I think UW is a great fit for the B1G. They are a large public university, very strong academically, a long history of successful sports, loyal alumni, and the 14th largest media market. So if the Pac folds, I hope UW joins the B1G 10, and I imagine OR would make the move too.
 



PMWinSTP

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:sneaky:

That Outkick clickbait trash got eviscerated on a college realignment message board I follow.


Indeed, the Big Ten did vet both schools ........... last summer.
Ahh, OK. Definitely go with a message board over a decent source.
Something actually worth your click: https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/05...ur-corners-factor-selection-windows-and-more/

What are the chances of the Pac-12 simply re-upping its media rights contracts with ESPN and Fox?

The Pac-12 could end up partnering with ESPN and Fox — more on that momentarily — but it probably would not be a simple renewal of the existing agreement. It would be a new deal with a new component: The game inventory that has, to this point, been located on the Pac-12 Networks.

The contract signed in 2011 gave ESPN and Fox the right to share 44 regular-season football games, plus the conference championship. The Pac-12 Networks broadcast another 35 (approximately).

Those 35 likely will be included in whatever deal the conference signs this spring with its new broadcast partners. The Pac-12 Networks are going away, at least as a self-sustained media production and distribution company.

Our view, which hasn’t changed over the course of six or seven months, is that ESPN will receive a substantial portion of the Pac-12’s football inventory starting in 2024 while Fox could purchase a small package. It already has the L.A. schools (as part of its Big Ten agreement) and doesn’t need more than one Pac-12 game per week, if that.

That’s one of several factors that distinguish the Pac-12 and Big 12 situations.

Fox needed to renew with the Big 12 because it lost Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC (and ESPN).

Fox doesn’t need to renew with the Pac-12 because it gained USC and UCLA (via its Big Ten agreement).

That said, the loss of USC and UCLA to Fox probably serves as a motivating factor for ESPN.

If it doesn’t partner with the Pac-12, the network would be shut out of the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver and Portland media markets, plus the metropolises in the Big Ten.
 

Gophers_4life

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I don’t have any inside info, but the talk around here (Seattle) is WA and OR are waiting to see what the new Pac deal will be. However, since the current TV contract expires after the next school year, they would like to have the new agreement finished soon. I’ve heard July 1st is a date they’d like to have it done by. And if the deal falls short of expectations, they think schools will start moving, and maybe it will be one or more of the 4 Corner schools that start the dominos falling.

Personally, I think UW is a great fit for the B1G. They are a large public university, very strong academically, a long history of successful sports, loyal alumni, and the 14th largest media market. So if the Pac folds, I hope UW joins the B1G 10, and I imagine OR would make the move too.
The Big Ten would have to invite them, and they could’ve done that easily when they added USCLA. I don’t think it happens.

Really nothing at all wrong with the PAC as it will stand with those remaining 10. All very solid schools and have played a lot of games against each other.

Doesn’t really matter that they won’t be one of the two super powers. They’ll still be as good as Big 12 and ACC. They can win championships with that much money.

A Power 2 and a Pretty Good 3, is just fine.
 

mngolf

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The Big Ten would have to invite them, and they could’ve done that easily when they added USCLA. I don’t think it happens.

Really nothing at all wrong with the PAC as it will stand with those remaining 10. All very solid schools and have played a lot of games against each other.

Doesn’t really matter that they won’t be one of the two super powers. They’ll still be as good as Big 12 and ACC. They can win championships with that much money.

A Power 2 and a Pretty Good 3, is just fine.
If you only care about winning. But they are businesses and care just as much or more about money.
 

WAGopher

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The Big Ten would have to invite them, and they could’ve done that easily when they added USCLA. I don’t think it happens.

Really nothing at all wrong with the PAC as it will stand with those remaining 10. All very solid schools and have played a lot of games against each other.

Doesn’t really matter that they won’t be one of the two super powers. They’ll still be as good as Big 12 and ACC. They can win championships with that much money.

A Power 2 and a Pretty Good 3, is just fine.
We do know the B1G said something to the affect that were not ready to invite any other school other than Notre Dame because they had the networks work in that possibility into the new contract, and no other school was covered that way. However, it’s recently been suggested the networks have now put a value on at least WA and OR, which could lead to an invite.

I think if the new Pac TV contract is in the range of the Big 12 contract, the Pac stays together. But if it’s the in the $20 million per school range like has been suggested, you’ll see some schools pursue other conferences, which will change the makeup and prestige of the conference. WA and OR will not want to be part of that, but they may not have much of a choice if the B1G doesn’t offer.

It is possible the Big 12 would offer them over 3 of the 4 Four Corner schools. If you look at how many viewers each school averages, as opposed to the size of market each school is in, for football the schools rank:

Pac-12 2022 Average Football Views Per Week:
(School, Viewers, National Rank)
1. OR Ducks, 2.21M, 12th
2. USC Trojans, 2.07M, 14th
3. UCLA Bruins, 1.59M, 25th
4. UT Utes, 1.16M, 33rd
5. WA Huskies, 1.15M, 34th
6. WA State Cougars, 907K, 41st
7. CA Golden Bears, 857K, 45th
8. Stanford Cardinal, 846K, 47th
9. OR State Beavers, 625K, 57th
10. AZ Wildcats, 506K, 52nd
11. CO Buffaloes, 352K, 67th
12. AZ Sun Devils, 314K, 71st

Source:
 

Gophers_4life

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We do know the B1G said something to the affect that were not ready to invite any other school other than Notre Dame because they had the networks work in that possibility into the new contract, and no other school was covered that way. However, it’s recently been suggested the networks have now put a value on at least WA and OR, which could lead to an invite.

I think if the new Pac TV contract is in the range of the Big 12 contract, the Pac stays together. But if it’s the in the $20 million per school range like has been suggested, you’ll see some schools pursue other conferences, which will change the makeup and prestige of the conference. WA and OR will not want to be part of that, but they may not have much of a choice if the B1G doesn’t offer.

It is possible the Big 12 would offer them over 3 of the 4 Four Corner schools. If you look at how many viewers each school averages, as opposed to the size of market each school is in, for football the schools rank:

Pac-12 2022 Average Football Views Per Week:
(School, Viewers, National Rank)
1. OR Ducks, 2.21M, 12th
2. USC Trojans, 2.07M, 14th
3. UCLA Bruins, 1.59M, 25th
4. UT Utes, 1.16M, 33rd
5. WA Huskies, 1.15M, 34th
6. WA State Cougars, 907K, 41st
7. CA Golden Bears, 857K, 45th
8. Stanford Cardinal, 846K, 47th
9. OR State Beavers, 625K, 57th
10. AZ Wildcats, 506K, 52nd
11. CO Buffaloes, 352K, 67th
12. AZ Sun Devils, 314K, 71st

Source:
Bolded: doubtful there was anything new. I think Big Ten worked with its TV partners to put monetary value on them last summer when they were figuring out how much the current Big Ten + USCLA was worth. Wasn't enough to warrant inviting them then.

That doesn't mean never. Not saying that.
 

PMWinSTP

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Bolded: doubtful there was anything new. I think Big Ten worked with its TV partners to put monetary value on them last summer when they were figuring out how much the current Big Ten + USCLA was worth. Wasn't enough to warrant inviting them then.

That doesn't mean never. Not saying that.
Pivot. It's what you do.
 

mngolf

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McMurphy reporting that besides the ACC meetings today, there has been recent meetings amongst 7 schools looking for a way out. They only need 8 to dissolve the conference.

Miami, FSU, Clem, NC, NC State, VA, Va Tech
 

fmlizard

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McMurphy reporting that besides the ACC meetings today, there has been recent meetings amongst 7 schools looking for a way out. They only need 8 to dissolve the conference.

Miami, FSU, Clem, NC, NC State, VA, Va Tech

So when are they going to just start calling the new conferences Red and Blue?
 

mngolf

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So when are they going to just start calling the new conferences Red and Blue?
Sounds like they're hoping for ND to be the eighth. At which point I would assume ACC gets split up amongst SEC, B1G, and Big12. Since it seems to be moving towards 3 conferences then, is one the purple? ;)
 

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Sounds like they're hoping for ND to be the eighth. At which point I would assume ACC gets split up amongst SEC, B1G, and Big12. Since it seems to be moving towards 3 conferences then, is one the purple? ;)
Maybe.
But the big 12 is not going to be on the same level as the other two financially
 

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McMurphy reporting that besides the ACC meetings today, there has been recent meetings amongst 7 schools looking for a way out. They only need 8 to dissolve the conference.

Miami, FSU, Clem, NC, NC State, VA, Va Tech
NC State and VT, even Miami, certainly do not have guaranteed seats in the major two confs waiting for them. And breaking the ACC as it is now into two smaller conferences isn't going to net either piece a bigger TV deal per school.

All they're doing is helping FSU, Clemson, UNC, and/or UVA escape to the SEC or Big Ten.
 

Gophers_4life

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That said, even if they found 8 to agree to "dissolve" the conference, the other 8 could just as easily sue to block them and probably tie it up in the courts for a few years.
 

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Maybe.
But the big 12 is not going to be on the same level as the other two financially
College landscape is just perfectly fine with a Power 2 and a Pretty Good 3.

Lot of fan fiction about making things perfectly "neat" with 4 confs of 16-20 members each. No need for that and I don't see that happening.
 

mngolf

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NC State and VT, even Miami, certainly do not have guaranteed seats in the major two confs waiting for them. And breaking the ACC as it is now into two smaller conferences isn't going to net either piece a bigger TV deal per school.

All they're doing is helping FSU, Clemson, UNC, and/or UVA escape to the SEC or Big Ten.
Big12 would certainly take alot of the leftovers. And they'd be happy to get into the Big12 at that point. Yormark wants to be the best of the non Power 2, have a seat at the table, and be a national conference.

I think schools like VT and NC State are figuring they are locks for Big 12, which is better than nothing and what they're long term future would be otherwise.
 

mngolf

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That said, even if they found 8 to agree to "dissolve" the conference, the other 8 could just as easily sue to block them and probably tie it up in the courts for a few years.
I believe the rules for the ACC are that dissolution of the conference means no GoR remaining and no penalty for leaving. No suit available.
 

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College landscape is just perfectly fine with a Power 2 and a Pretty Good 3.

Lot of fan fiction about making things perfectly "neat" with 4 confs of 16-20 members each. No need for that and I don't see that happening.
There is no reason for the 32 that currently comprise the new SEC and new Big 10 to subsidize teams 45-80 just for the sake of things being divisible by 4 and 5
 

Gophers_4life

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Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville are going to join up with ... Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston?

Hmmm ... they can, and should, do just as well on their own.
 




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