Are We Headed Towards 4 Conferences?

[SHGopher]

I would think USC and UCLA would want at least two more schools in their time zone to be added to the B1G. It’s better for their athletes and fans, although by how much is debatable.

That's a great point. A really great point I hadn't thought of.

So Stanford plus a team in Washington or Oregon.

I do think Big Ten should increase by smart numbers that divide nicely. 16 is a nice number. Four divisions of 5 is 20. 3 division of 6 is 18. 24 should be the final, ultimate landing spot in about a decade.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska... and then the last one is the big decision.

Also, basketball needs to be the main drive of the step after that. Duke and North Carolina in particular. Maybe even try to poach UConn.

Plus Notre Dame at some point.

 

[PMWinSTP]

ACC schools are their priority, in the future, I think. USCLA may have asked for no other PAC schools to be added (competition) for all we know.

Think we’re set at 16 for awhile.

Ver doubtful on both. I would think the exact opposite on what the L.A. schools would want in expansion.

 

[Gophers_4life]

I would think USC and UCLA would want at least two more schools in their time zone to be added to the B1G. It’s better for their athletes and fans, although by how much is debatable.

Sure. Perfectly reasonable thing to think without any further information.

But from the link, we have:
He said he’s “less concerned” about the travel and logistics surrounding the Los Angeles schools than he was initially after recent conversations with his peers at both schools. USC and UCLA already travel quite a bit in Pac-12 play, Jones said, and he expected the Big Ten to schedule strategically to maximize each trip in various sports, likely playing more than one opponent in one location.

So that leads me to believe that it's just not that big a deal for them. At least, right now. Maybe they get into it and quickly realize its not working like they thought, etc.


SoCal is where the major football talent is, and adding two more PAC schools then re-opens that to those. Now USCLA can try to sell "we're Big Ten, that's a higher level than PAC" to those players. Don't know how well that will work, just saying.


I'm just guessing, hope you realize. None of us is privy to any real info. All guesses are valid at this point.

 

[Some guy]

FWIW - the Colorado Board of Regents held an executive session Monday (Apr 17). The official agenda said meeting in executive session for discussion of legal issues pertaining to athletics. the meeting lasted about an hour & 15 minutes.

obviously, that could mean a lot of things. but there has been some buzz that Colorado might be looking at its options - including a move to the Big12 - if the money in the Pac-12 media deal falls short of expectations.

and just for fun - was listening to "the Monty Show" on YouTube. and the hosts said their sources at ESPN claimed that ESPN is not willing to go over $90 to $100-Million a year for Pac-12 rights - or $9 to $10-million a year per school. even if you combine that with a streaming deal, that still leaves the Pac-12 way short of what the Big12 is getting.

If this is the case none of them would ever get into the big ten unless they’re willing to permanently take in less than a full share of revenue.
Because a single school would need to add 90 million in content to break even.
The whole conference might be worth about 90 million per that report.

The big ten isn’t going to take less money to bring in Washington and Oregon and Stanford

 

[Some guy]

Ver doubtful on both. I would think the exact opposite on what the L.A. schools would want in expansion.

It’s either south or not a tall.
Because there is no way the pac schools can add the necessary revenue to make the pie big enough to cut more ways.


Maybe some combo of notre dame, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia tech, + 2 pac

But pac on their own, no way

 

[mngolf]

Interesting report from ND last summer saying they want $75M from NBC in '25. Wonder if that's reasonable for them to ask for on their own? And would a no from NBC push them in the B1G direction?

 

[Some guy]

Interesting report from ND last summer saying they want $75M from NBC in '25. Wonder if that's reasonable for them to ask for on their own? And would a no from NBC push them in the B1G direction?

Depends on if they can still keep scheduling big/good inventory home games I suppose.

The fact that there are reports of notre dame wanting 75 and the entire pac being 100 tells you everything about what you need to know to get another pac team into the big ten. It would probably take notre dame (and that might not even do it).

 

[mngolf]

I gotta believe NBC says no as that isn't even all of ND's games.

 

[WAGopher]

I found this DirectTV article that using their data discussed which states watch the most sports and which sport they watch the most.

The Midwest watches the most televised sports and prefers football, while the west coast watches the least sports and prefers golf. Might be a clue as to why ESPN has offered a less valuable contract to the Pac.

Great image:


Article link:

The Most Watched Sports in America by State | USDirect.com

Check out which sports your state watches the most and how your state stacks up the rest of the nation.

www.usdirect.com

 

[Some guy]

I gotta believe NBC says no as that isn't even all of ND's games.

Yeah it’s just the home games or “home games”

However, if NBC sees future road games:
24 @ Purdue and @USC
26 vs Wisconsin (neutral but I think technically Wisconsin owns tv rights), @Purdue, @USC
27 @ Michigan state
28 @ Purdue

They (potentially) own a good chunk of the road games already via the big ten contract.
The whole point of the big ten deal was to get multiple network marketing because they’re on a lot of channels.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Up to a point, Notre Dame is willing to forgo some revenue in order to maintain the ideolgy of independence.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

we should be getting some clarity on the Pac-12 situation fairly soon. I keep reading and hearing that mid-May is some type of unofficial deadline for the Pac-12 Commissioner to update the Presidents and AD's on the status of any pending media deal.

beyond that, still a morass of conflicting reports. one story says the deal will be heavy on streaming. another story says the Presidents will not accept a deal that is heavy on streaming. Apple TV is in. Apple TV is out. Amazon is in. Amazon is out. CW is in......you get the idea.

 

[mngolf]

Yeah it’s just the home games or “home games”

However, if NBC sees future road games:
24 @ Purdue and @USC
26 vs Wisconsin (neutral but I think technically Wisconsin owns tv rights), @Purdue, @USC
27 @ Michigan state
28 @ Purdue

They (potentially) own a good chunk of the road games already via the big ten contract.
The whole point of the big ten deal was to get multiple network marketing because they’re on a lot of channels.

I just don't think they would pay $75 just for the "home games". Now would they bring $100 as a B1G member, yeah I think so.

 

[Some guy]

I just don't think they would pay $75 just for the "home games". Now would they bring $100 as a B1G member, yeah I think so.

Yes. Because the 7 home games plus probably a maximum of 1 road game per year the conference doesn’t own.

If notre dame did their ACC scheduling agreement with the big ten instead of the ACC I think nbc would be more likely to pony up. Because they know they’d own a lot more of the road games too.

I wonder if ESPN will bid for notre dame.
They already own a bunch of road games via the ACC. It would also be a way for them to back door their way into buying some big ten inventory.

 

[PMWinSTP]

It’s either south or not a tall.
Because there is no way the pac schools can add the necessary revenue to make the pie big enough to cut more ways.


Maybe some combo of notre dame, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia tech, + 2 pac

But pac on their own, no way

Don't see that happening. IMHO, there's maybe two ACC schools (Clemson and Virginia) that would be anywhere even close to matching the sports $$ value of a Washington, Stanford, or even maybe Oregon. Seattle (12) and Bay Area (6) are very large media markets.

 

[Word]

I found this DirectTV article that using their data discussed which states watch the most sports and which sport they watch the most.

The Midwest watches the most televised sports and prefers football, while the west coast watches the least sports and prefers golf. Might be a clue as to why ESPN has offered a less valuable contract to the Pac.

Great image:
View attachment 25322

Article link:

The Most Watched Sports in America by State | USDirect.com

Check out which sports your state watches the most and how your state stacks up the rest of the nation.

www.usdirect.com

People watch golf?

 

[Ope3]

People watch golf?

Dozens watch LIV.

 

[Some guy]

Don't see that happening. IMHO, there's maybe two ACC schools (Clemson and Virginia) that would be anywhere even close to matching the sports $$ value of a Washington, Stanford, or even maybe Oregon. Seattle (12) and Bay Area (6) are very large media markets.

I was surprised the expansion to usc and ucla happened.
I was surprised Maryland and Rutgers were added.
Nebraska was logical and a no brainer, to me.
So I kind of agree with you.


Honestly, if it is all about money, the big ten buying other conferences tier two and tier 3 content might be more profitable than big ten expansion.


The only brands that I definitely think add value more than the piece they take are:
Notre dame
Texas
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
Texas a&m
LSU

8 of those aren’t coming for obvious reasons, the other is notre dame.


There are others that might add value but I’m not sure

 

[Ope3]

I was surprised the expansion to usc and ucla happened.
I was surprised Maryland and Rutgers were added.
Nebraska was logical and a no brainer, to me.
So I kind of agree with you.


Honestly, if it is all about money, the big ten buying other conferences tier two and tier 3 content might be more profitable than big ten expansion.


The only brands that I definitely think add value more than the piece they take are:
Notre dame
Texas
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
Texas a&m
LSU

8 of those aren’t coming for obvious reasons, the other is notre dame.


There are others that might add value but I’m not sure

I would replace Auburn with North Carolina. Auburn is a distant second in their own state and without any huge population center.

North Carolina would bring prestige for two sports plus access to the Charlotte/Raleigh markets.

Probably Virginia too.

 

[Some guy]

I would replace Auburn with North Carolina. Auburn is a distant second in their own state and without any huge population center.

North Carolina would bring prestige for two sports plus access to the Charlotte/Raleigh markets.

Probably Virginia too.

North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Washington, Arizona or Arizona state (but not both), Oregon, Georgia tech, Oklahoma, Florida state are the schools in that next tier to me. Auburn might belong in that tier…but to me auburn is a bigger football brand than everyone in this tier. You’re probably right and auburn is more in this tier.


After that there is no way they come unless they are the second of getting one of the top tier or the 4th in getting 3 of that middle tier.
Stanford? Cal? They could maybe be the fill in with notre dame? No way they take Washington and Stanford. That’s a money loser.

 

[Ope3]

North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Washington, Arizona or Arizona state (but not both), Oregon, Georgia tech, Oklahoma, Florida state are the schools in that next tier to me. Auburn might belong in that tier…but to me auburn is a bigger football brand than everyone in this tier. You’re probably right and auburn is more in this tier.


After that there is no way they come unless they are the second of getting one of the top tier or the 4th in getting 3 of that middle tier.
Stanford? Cal? They could maybe be the fill in with notre dame? No way they take Washington and Stanford. That’s a money loser.

Fair enough. To me NC is attractive when considering the whole package (football, basketball, media market, proximity to eastern schools already in the Big 10 etc.)

 

[Gophers_4life]

I think you guys are talking about two fairly different things.

SG is talking about -- not sure how to most correctly word this, but something like -- "national interest in a college football brand". Something like, you take someone who is (at least casually) interested in watching a college football game, has access to all the major cable channels, and has to decide on a game to tune into based on nothing more than knowledge of the brands playing.

Such a person very well might choose to tune into a Nebraska, Auburn, Clemson, just because they know those are major brands of college football.


Ope, on the other hand, is talking more in terms of the things that saw the Big Ten add Rutgers and Maryland: state/market population and marketing potential, and potential subscribers to Big Ten content.

Virginia (NOVA) is huge, and so is North Carolina, in those regards. But most people around the country would not choose to tune into a college football game featuring either of those brands, or Rutgers or Maryland for that matter.

 

[Some guy]

Fair enough. To me NC is attractive when considering the whole package (football, basketball, media market, proximity to eastern schools already in the Big 10 etc.)

I think if there is another expansion it is North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame + 1 of Washington/Oregon/Stanford/Florida state/Georgia tech

I have a hard time seeing them expand by just 2 unless it’s notre dame. I have a hard time seeing them nab notre dame without the reason being the ACC is falling apart.

 

[Ope3]

I think if there is another expansion it is North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame + 1 of Washington/Oregon/Stanford/Florida state/Georgia tech

I have a hard time seeing them expand by just 2 unless it’s notre dame. I have a hard time seeing them nab notre dame without the reason being the ACC is falling apart.

I agree. I think it would take something drastic for it to happen in the near future (3-5 years), like some combo of Florida St, Miami and/or Clemson to bolt for the SEC and then the Big 10 reacting by cherry picking.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Notre Dame could well decide to send basketball + Olympic sports to the (new) Big East, in that case, with football remaining independent.

(That case being, the ACC starts falling apart)

Wonder if Syracuse, Pitt, and Boston College would follow suit, getting the old Big East band back together. Could easily schedule games amongst themselves, plus UConn and UMass.

 

[mngolf]

Notre Dame could well decide to send basketball + Olympic sports to the (new) Big East, in that case, with football remaining independent.

(That case being, the ACC starts falling apart)

Wonder if Syracuse, Pitt, and Boston College would follow suit, getting the old Big East band back together. Could easily schedule games amongst themselves, plus UConn and UMass.

Big East is now a Catholic league right? So PItt, Syr, Uconn, umass wouldn't work.

I think FSU, Miami, Clemson start pushing soon to get out of the GoR. With NC smirking on the sideline hoping that works so they can jump to B1G. No way that stays until the end of the contract. Then there would be major reshuffling. And I'll say it again, I could fully see A&M say they don't want to be in with TX and try to move to the B1G.

 

[Gophers_4life]

UConn joined the Big East a year or two ago, with football independent.

 

[nitramnaed]

I can only say this, and I risk being mocked:
AAU...AAU...AAU!
This is not the sole decision of the B1G or AD's. University Presidents/Chancellors have a lot of influence here and I believe you underestimate their desire to have B1G schools be number one in academics. AAU membership is one way to show that commitment.
Yes, I know about Nebby, but when they joined, they were an AAU member.
Okay, have at it.

 

[Ope3]

I can only say this, and I risk being mocked:
AAU...AAU...AAU!
This is not the sole decision of the B1G or AD's. University Presidents/Chancellors have a lot of influence here and I believe you underestimate their desire to have B1G schools be number one in academics. AAU membership is one way to show that commitment.
Yes, I know about Nebby, but when they joined, they were an AAU member.
Okay, have at it.

I won't mock you, I think it is and should be a consideration. It's part of the reason why I never really seriously consider either Miami Coral Gables nor Florida St amongst these conversations.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

to add to the complexity of the 'adding teams' discussion -
It's one thing to talk about teams that might be a good fit in terms of athletics or academics, but as
Some Guy has pointed out, TV contracts play a huge role in any decision.

the new B1G media deal, when it fully kicks in, will pay out $80-million to $100-million per school per year.

If a new school comes in as a full partner, the question is whether that school is "worth" $80 to $100-million in terms of the value it provides as a TV market and ratings generator. Now, in some cases, new schools do not get a full share of media dollars right away - I believe Maryland and Rutgers came in under that type of agreement.

so all of that has to be factored into any expansion or addition of teams. Would a Washington or Oregon be willing to join the B1G if they only got, say $60-million a year?