Are We Headed Towards 4 Conferences?

MaxyJR1

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Seems the PAC12 is having a number of issues in hanging onto their status during the media negotiations. Seems like the time is ripe for the PAC12 to go away and there be 4 power conferences. TV would love this by getting the west coast teams traveling and in some better time slots for viewing. Seems the Big 12 might just outlast the PAC 12.

 

Really interesting read. One item that wasn't discussed: If games in the pacific time zone are not worth as much, at what point has the new Power 4 reached an upper limit on media rights even with the Pac 12 out of the picture? Would the competition for Oregon and Washington be as stiff as is speculated, or would conferences consider letting those school's athletic departments wilt so that their own gain strength?
 


Really interesting read. One item that wasn't discussed: If games in the pacific time zone are not worth as much, at what point has the new Power 4 reached an upper limit on media rights even with the Pac 12 out of the picture? Would the competition for Oregon and Washington be as stiff as is speculated, or would conferences consider letting those school's athletic departments wilt so that their own gain strength?
I think it's like Dodd said. Oregon and Wash take smaller pieces to join the B1G. This will happen to the ACC as well as they get closer to their contract ending.
 

If that happens I may end up tapping out for good

Greed always ruins everything in my experience.
 
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In a game of musical chairs, you never want to be the last one standing - which is exactly what the Pac-12 has done by not working out a media rights deal.

the Big-12 has been a lot more aggressive and right now, is in a lot stronger position than the Pac-12.

If Kevin Warren was remaining as the B1G commissioner, I think that would improve the odds of Washington and Oregon moving to the B1G at some point. But apparently, Warren's feelings about future expansion were not shared by a lot of the B1G Presidents. that might buy the other Pac-12 schools some time to figure out what the bleep they're doing.
 


I am excited to see USC and UCLA in the Big Ten. I will be looking forward to fall and winter road games including basketball. Budget airlines travel there is cheap. Get off the plane and feel the bright sun and more sun.

AKA Hollywood. Big Ten is coast to coast big time.

Next additions hopefully bring in the big dog basketball teams Duke and North Carolina along with hopefully Stanford, if possible, and other Pac-12 teams. That means the folding of Pac-12 into Big 12 and Mountain West that will create stability for those remaining teams.

Anyway, I love the Southern California media market exposure -and the sun in fall and winter too.
 

If that happens I may end up tapping out for goog
I'm with ya. I'm almost done now. After watching Illinois get the hose job at Michigan, just so the following week undefeated tOSU could host undefeated Michigan, got me started down the path.

I think we might end up with a situation where the P2 or P3 conferences have Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Clemson, FSU, Miami, tOSU, Michigan, USC and the "bill of goods" for the college football regular season is supposed to be everyone watching those teams go undefeated and then meet in an EPIC playoff clash of unbeaten titans...year after year!

No one outside of those teams' fan bases would be interested in that. What made college football so interesting over the past 20+ years was the upset of a powerhouse by a team that shouldn't have beaten them. Those games happening every season made for a great season. This will be like the NFL when it was just San Fran and Dallas for like 5 years.
 



I’m waiting for two conferences…with divisions called the Pacific Coast 12, B1G division, Big12 division, Southeastern Division, Atlantic Coast Division, Division USA, Mid Atlantic Division, and Sun Belt division.
 

If the pac 12 can’t command a 40 million per school deal I really don’t understand how adding 2-4 pac 12 schools would add the 280-320 million dollars per year to make it a net gain for big ten payouts.

The entire pac 12 isn’t worth what it would take for the big ten to expand by 4 schools and increase payouts 10 million per schools.
 

Under Larry Scott the PAC just sat on its hands for the most part.

For years you couldn’t even get the PAC12 network in the cities where some of the universities were located.


Dude trashed that conference, possibly beyond repair.


And that’s not even mentioning how in one situation under Larry you had PAC administration calling into the replay booth to tell them how to rule….
 






Four mega-conferences somewhat geographically-determined. Twenty teams in each conference. Conference can decide how many divisions within each conference. Filling the bowl schedule might get a little complicated, but I think--like others--that were heading toward some type of framework like this.
 

Really interesting read. One item that wasn't discussed: If games in the pacific time zone are not worth as much, at what point has the new Power 4 reached an upper limit on media rights even with the Pac 12 out of the picture? Would the competition for Oregon and Washington be as stiff as is speculated, or would conferences consider letting those school's athletic departments wilt so that their own gain strength?
Schools don't look out for each other. Just look at the old WCHA. Poof.
 

Hate it. All for some mix up to out of conference scheduling of other P5 and love bowl games to also have the chance to play those teams (even for how meaningless they are vs the old days). But why would any school besides the blue bloods agree to try and win a conference of 16-24 teams just because the money is good? Are they that desperate for cash? The argument they need more cash to compete is not really there as the rich only get richer too.

Edit, I also like late night PAC12 games to stay up and have an extra beer or two after the family is asleep.
 
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The schools left in the PAC 10 (or whatever you want to call it after USC and UCLA depart) are not stupid.

They've already crunched all the numbers and run all the scenarios.


If any of those schools felt highly certain that they would gain a significant advantage in terms of revenue and/or status in major college football by switching to the Big 12 over what they were likely to get by staying put .......

...... they would've already moved by now.

That includes the Arizona schools, Utah, and Colorado.


The Big Ten is done expanding for now. Similarly to above, they would've already taken Washington and Oregon (or some combination of those and Cal, Stanford) if it made sense to do that.
 

the Big-12 has been a lot more aggressive and right now, is in a lot stronger position than the Pac-12.
No. The Big12 is toast. Their TV deal is already done and it’s a steaming turd.

The Big12 without TX and OK is like a sequel to Titanic, if it were made with a budget of $25,000.
 

The schools left in the PAC 10 (or whatever you want to call it after USC and UCLA depart) are not stupid.

They've already crunched all the numbers and run all the scenarios.


If any of those schools felt highly certain that they would gain a significant advantage in terms of revenue and/or status in major college football by switching to the Big 12 over what they were likely to get by staying put .......

...... they would've already moved by now.

That includes the Arizona schools, Utah, and Colorado.


The Big Ten is done expanding for now. Similarly to above, they would've already taken Washington and Oregon (or some combination of those and Cal, Stanford) if it made sense to do that.
They're waiting for the new tv contract, to see what it is. Then they'll decide. And it will be bad.
 

No. The Big12 is toast. Their TV deal is already done and it’s a steaming turd.

The Big12 without TX and OK is like a sequel to Titanic, if it were made with a budget of $25,000.
Meanwhile, in basketball...
 


No. The Big12 is toast. Their TV deal is already done and it’s a steaming turd.

The Big12 without TX and OK is like a sequel to Titanic, if it were made with a budget of $25,000.

I just meant that the Big-12 has completed its media deal - whatever you think of it, it means more guaranteed money than the previous deal. And, after losing TX and OK, the Big-12 did not sit on its hands - it went out and approved the addition of new members. BYU, Houston, Cincinnati and UCF may not be TX or OK, but they are at least recognizable names in the college football world.

Meanwhile, the Pac-12 can't seem to agree on anything.

the perception is that the Big-12 is actively working to hold onto its major-conference status, while the Pac-12 is a cluster bleep. at least from my point of view.

is the Big-12 on the same level as the B1G or SEC? No. but they're still better off than the Pac-12, as of today.
 

update - Pete Thamel has an article on ESPN+ talking about the future of conference realignment - specifically dealing with the Pac-12.

a couple of key passages:

Here's the bottom line on the Pac-12: The television contract numbers Kliavkoff delivers in the upcoming weeks are paramount to the league's survival. If the numbers are decent, some sort of temporary solution can be constructed with a deal expected to be in the five-year range. And that's certainly possible.

Within the industry, there are a lot more television suitors who have passed on the Pac-12 than those who are believed to still be interested in paying market value. ESPN and Amazon have long been the speculative favorites, but the level of their interest remains the key variable. And that has caused an undercurrent of nervousness among the Pac-12 programs and has emboldened other leagues interested in adding schools.

"If [Kliavkoff] has something up his sleeve, it's with some entity that no one knows about," an industry source said.

The issue with Oregon and Washington and the Pac-12's future is that the long-term path appears fraught. If there's a decent deal available to the Pac-12 in the upcoming weeks and if Oregon and Washington want to sign a grant of rights to be part of that deal, it will be a short-term deal. (Think five years.) This means in another three years, the same issues of whether the Big Ten has the appetite to consume them will remain.
 

If Oregon and Washington really think playing Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, West Virginia, Baylor, and Texas Christian as their peer institutions, is going to do it for the fanbase, well then the door can hit them in the ass on the way out.

They don’t hold invitations to the Big Ten, and they’re not going to any time soon.

The PAC’s survival is not in question. Just a matter of what level. They’ll pull up more MWC teams, worst comes to worst.
 


Apple (TV+) has emerged as the other bidder for PAC college sports TV contract. https://www.si.com/college/usc/foot...-deal-for-conferences-college-football-rights

Apparently the viewing experience of the MLS Season Pass is getting good reviews. https://worldsoccertalk.com/tv/mls-...of-games-on-apple-tv-20230220-WST-418692.html
The Apple TV app is now available on almost every new TV (Samsung, LG, and streaming device (Roku, Fire TV, etc.), and cable company. So getting access is easy, it’s just how much will the cost be?
 

The Apple TV app is now available on almost every new TV (Samsung, LG, and streaming device (Roku, Fire TV, etc.), and cable company. So getting access is easy, it’s just how much will the cost be?
Well FWIW, the MLS Season Pass is $15/mo or $99 for the whole season. That's if you are not an AppleTV+ subscriber. If you already subscribe to it, then it's an additional $13/mo or $79 for the whole season. https://www.mlssoccer.com/season-pass/
 

The reporting on this makes absolutely no sense.

There isn’t a single member of the Big12 that wouldn’t take an invite, on the spot, to join the Pac12 right now. But the Pac12 still isn’t having any of them.

Meanwhile, there also isn’t a single member of the Pac12 that the Big 12 wouldn’t love to have join them (even Washington State would be a net add for the Big12). And they have been desperately and publicly begging several Pac12 members. Yet, not a single Pac12 member has expressed serious interest in joining them.

The PAC12’s TV negotiations are likely just very complicated by the fact that so many schools are there for the taking (KS, KS St, OK St, TCU, San Diego St, BYU) if any TV partners want them in the Pac12 deal, but TV just isn’t all that impressed with what any of them would add.
 




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