Are We Headed Towards 4 Conferences?

[Gophers_4life]

I believe the rules for the ACC are that dissolution of the conference means no GoR remaining and no penalty for leaving. No suit available.

LOL

Let them try it. Lawyers will be up their ass immediately. Will be fun to watch

 

[mngolf]

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville are going to join up with ... Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston?

Hmmm ... they can, and should, do just as well on their own.

I don't think all of those. Hence the reason they haven't joined the 7. I think some would be SOL like Oregon St-Wash St. in the PAC are.

 

[Gophers_4life]

The 8 can just continue to be the ACC, and do well for themselves. Collect the exit fees, and a big time payoff of the other 8 to leave early.

That's what would happen. Guaranteed. Lawyers will have a field day.


The leavers will have to pay out the ass if they want out early. Is what it is, pound of flesh

 

[Gophers_4life]

Interesting thing is ESPN.

Any wanting to go to the SEC, would still be under the ESPN umbrella. Just upgrading leagues in a sense.

But any looking to go to the Big Ten or Big 12, would be lost properties entirely or partly to FOX.

 

[fmlizard]

I think most of the ACC schools will end up in an alliance with the SEC. It might be a merger but I think it ends up as more of a regional/scheduling/political alliance.

Some of the northern schools like BC, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt might try and join the Big Ten / Pac 12 federation. Pitt and Notre Dame would be a coup for the Big Ten.

Who knows what becomes of the Big 12 schools that remain?

 

[Dave H]

LOL

Let them try it. Lawyers will be up their ass immediately. Will be fun to watch

When the WCHA/CCHA broke up there was threats of that but it never happened. It's a losing proposition and the schools knew it so they basically just went out to protect their own. And the WCHA didn't even have rules in place (all rumors to the contrary) they just had no way to make the Big Ten teams stay.

Lawsuits cost money so you have to be reasonably sure you can win or at least gain from it. If the rule is "8 needed to dissolve" and they get the 8 they will not win they suit and stalling just costs more money. They will threaten, maybe take some steps and even file, but they will also back off because it's a full on loser both as a case and with money.

(If the rule does indeed exist obviously)

 

[Gophers_4life]

When the WCHA/CCHA broke up there was threats of that but it never happened. It's a losing proposition and the schools knew it so they basically just went out to protect their own. And the WCHA didn't even have rules in place (all rumors to the contrary) they just had no way to make the Big Ten teams stay.

Lawsuits cost money so you have to be reasonably sure you can win or at least gain from it. If the rule is "8 needed to dissolve" and they get the 8 they will not win they suit and stalling just costs more money. They will threaten, maybe take some steps and even file, but they will also back off because it's a full on loser both as a case and with money.

(If the rule does indeed exist obviously)

If the threat of a suit induces a settlement compromise, some kind of additional exit payment (ransom payment to get the rights back ... less than spelled out in the contract, if there even is a buyoff clause, but something substantial) it could still be worth it.

 

[Dave H]

True but that is a gamble and expensive...

 

[Gophers_4life]

True but that is a gamble and expensive...

The alternative is just let those 8 walk away without paying anything, even the early exit fee.

Yeah, no.

I think spite would certainly be a valid reason to go for the lawsuit, as well. Try and get them locked up and make it hard for them to leave for as many months as possible. Priceless

 

[short ornery norwegian]

in today's chapter of "As the Pac-12 Turns," one of the top sports media reporters in the country is reporting that "ESPN and the Pac-12 are having no substantive talks at this time."

more from Sports Illustrated:

Where will fans be able to watch Pac-12 football games in 2024?

As of Monday, it doesn't look like it will be on ESPN, according to New York Post sports media columnist Andrew Marchand. In his newsletter released Monday morning, Marchand wrote:

“ESPN & the Pac-12 are having no substantive talks at this time. ESPN passed on Big Ten, Sunday Ticket, Premier League, Champions League & MLS, so the idea it will be completely out on the Pac-12 is not in the least bit surprising. Things can always change & maybe the Pac-12 can figure out a creative way to get ESPN involved, but right now that seems very unlikely.”

Two weeks ago on their show The Marchand and Ourand Sports Media Podcast, Marchand and fellow reporter John Ourand discussed how Amazon wasn't likely to partner with the Pac-12 either.

So what happens next?

The Pac-12's current TV deal expires in 2024 and the conference — after months and months of negotiations — is still in the process of trying to land a new one. Without ESPN and Amazon in the picture, Apple could potentially partner with the conference to air football games, but that would take the Pac-12's marque games off of cable. ION Television was another rumored partner.

(claims of "clickbait" coming in 3......2.......1.......)

 

[Gophers_4life]

Marchand publishes what ESPN tells him to.

He gets clicks, they get the narrative out that they want. Win-win

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

The alternative is just let those 8 walk away without paying anything, even the early exit fee.

Yeah, no.

I think spite would certainly be a valid reason to go for the lawsuit, as well. Try and get them locked up and make it hard for them to leave for as many months as possible. Priceless

Lawsuits cost both sides money and very few things cost entities more money than suing over spite. I'm not saying it won't happen, especially by public institutions that don't really pay their own legal bills. It's much easier to seek revenge at any cost when you're not paying the cost.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out, I'd guess lawsuits will be threatened and it will almost immediately come to a settlement.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Lawsuits cost both sides money and very few things cost entities more money than suing over spite. I'm not saying it won't happen, especially by public institutions that don't really pay their own legal bills. It's much easier to seek revenge at any cost when you're not paying the cost.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out, I'd guess lawsuits will be threatened and it will almost immediately come to a settlement.

All the latest mumbo jumbo about the "7" (later 8 with Louisville "joining") is all as fake, clickbait-y as it gets.

They had their lawyers look at the GoR. ....... Whoopty doo. Schools have had lawyers looking at that thing for years.

Nothing is actually going to happen.

The media outlets need a constant stream of stuff for people to click on regarding conference realignment. That's a gravy train that they can't afford to let dry up.


I could see some schools like Florida State and Clemson ultimately getting an unequal share of the ACC distribution to its schools, which may be the best they can do until 2036.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

just for fun, something new from Dennis "Clickbait" Dodd:

Colorado has been in "substantive" talks with the Big 12 about possibly joining the growing league, a source with knowledge of the discussions tells CBS Sports.

Colorado and the Big 12 have met face-to-face while involved in consistent talks over a period several months, according to multiple sources. It was made clear that a move to the Big 12 would not be made without the support of football coach Deion Sanders.

CU's rumored Big 12 interest was the talk of the Fiesta Summit earlier this month in Scottsdale, Arizona, with several sources speculating in the hallways. It became more public last week when the Oklahoman's Berry Tramel reported, "Colorado is ready to commit joining the Big 12 'soon.'"

"I have no comment other than what I said last week," Colorado athletic director Rick George told CBS Sports while not exactly shooting down the Big 12 talks. "We are proud members of the Pac-12. In a perfect world, we'd love to be in the Pac-12, but we also have to do what is right for Colorado at the end of the day."

 

[mngolf]

Supposedly guaranteeing them or any other current P5 team an equal share or $31.7M. Which I think will be more than what the PAC will get on their "deal". Which of course is still not done and we're now at June. Clearly not going the way Kliavkov thought.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Supposedly guaranteeing them or any other current P5 team an equal share or $31.7M. Which I think will be more than what the PAC will get on their "deal". Which of course is still not done and we're now at June. Clearly not going the way Kliavkov thought.

The Oregon AD was talking to a local media outlet last week. He said "the Pac-12 has served the University of Oregon well," but he also said "I think there's great confidence we're going to end up in the right place, is what I think."

that line about 'ending up in the right place' could be read a couple of different ways. If I was cynical, I would read that as saying "if we get enough $$$ from the TV deal, we'll be happy to stay in the Pac-12, but if the deal falls short, all bets are off."

 

[short ornery norwegian]

a lot of chatter on Twitter and elsewhere that Colorado is in 'active negotiations' to jump to the Big 12. some writers/outlets are claiming that it is a done deal, with only a few details left to wrap up.

the question is - if Colorado leaves the Pac-12, will anyone else join them?

Greg Flugaur was also hinting at this in his last live show - saying something big could happen on May 31st.

 

[mngolf]

a lot of chatter on Twitter and elsewhere that Colorado is in 'active negotiations' to jump to the Big 12. some writers/outlets are claiming that it is a done deal, with only a few details left to wrap up.

the question is - if Colorado leaves the Pac-12, will anyone else join them?

Greg Flugaur was also hinting at this in his last live show - saying something big could happen on May 31st.

Only chance no one joins them is if adding SDSU to the PAC still gives them an "acceptable" deal. And SDSU has to notify the MWC by 6/30 of their intention to move or it won't happen due to large exit fee increase. They've already stated they will join if asked. So George needs to crap or get off the pot.

 

[mngolf]

6 New AAU schools named today.

South Florida
George Washington
UC Riverside
Notre Dame
Miami
Arizona State

 

[MaxyJR1]

6 New AAU schools named today.

South Florida
George Washington
UC Riverside
Notre Dame
Miami
Arizona State

Seems that a couple schools might be good fits for the B1G.

 

[Panthadad2]

Sometimes the comments are more fun than the Tweet.

 

[Gophers_4life]

a lot of chatter on Twitter and elsewhere that Colorado is in 'active negotiations' to jump to the Big 12. some writers/outlets are claiming that it is a done deal, with only a few details left to wrap up.

the question is - if Colorado leaves the Pac-12, will anyone else join them?

Colorado joined the Big Six in 1947, making them the Big Seven. They stayed with that group until 2011.

If they're aching so badly to play peer institutions like Iowa State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State again, then godspeed to them in restarting those cherished rivalries.

They're the only PAC school east of the Rockies.


Not a single other PAC school will join them. And it's not even a done deal, yet. This could all be posturing by them to end up with a better deal from the PAC.


IF they leave, then it's a dream come true for Colorado State. They slide right in to the vacated slot and give the PAC exactly the same market.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

G_4L - it still all comes down to the Pac-12 media deal.

if Kliavkoff comes up with a media deal that pays each school more than $25-million per year - including a linear (re: cable TV) partner, then the odds are better that the Pac-12 stays intact.

But if the deal is under $25-million - OR if the deal is based on a majority of the games being shown on a streaming service instead of linear - there is no way that all 10 remaining schools will sign a Grant of Rights.

under that scenario, then Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State head to the Big-12 while Oregon and Washington get on their knees and beg the B1G to let them in. Utah is the wild card - there has been no buzz or steam on Utah going to another conference - but if the Pac-12 unravels, Utah is not joining the Mountain West. They will find a P5 (soon to be P4) conference to join.

and the clock is ticking. the Pac-12 schools - especially the ones on the fence - are not going to sit on the fence forever waiting for Kliavkoff to put a deal on the table.

 

[mngolf]

G_4L - it still all comes down to the Pac-12 media deal.

if Kliavkoff comes up with a media deal that pays each school more than $25-million per year - including a linear (re: cable TV) partner, then the odds are better that the Pac-12 stays intact.

But if the deal is under $25-million - OR if the deal is based on a majority of the games being shown on a streaming service instead of linear - there is no way that all 10 remaining schools will sign a Grant of Rights.

under that scenario, then Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State head to the Big-12 while Oregon and Washington get on their knees and beg the B1G to let them in. Utah is the wild card - there has been no buzz or steam on Utah going to another conference - but if the Pac-12 unravels, Utah is not joining the Mountain West. They will find a P5 (soon to be P4) conference to join.

and the clock is ticking. the Pac-12 schools - especially the ones on the fence - are not going to sit on the fence forever waiting for Kliavkoff to put a deal on the table.

Brett McMurphy reporting that Yormark is going to pay it's 10 members equally from $440M. So 44 per school, that ups the ante.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Brett McMurphy reporting that Yormark is going to pay it's 10 members equally from $440M. So 44 per school, that ups the ante.

the $44-mill figure is for total conference payout - as in the media deal PLUS other sources of revenue such as bowl games, the conference's share from the NCAA hoops tourney, etc.

The new Big-12 Media deal is for (I think) $31.7-million per school per year.

the media deal is only part of the total revenue stream for members of a P5 conference.

this is for the 2022 fiscal year. new media deals kicking in over the next couple of years will boost totals especially for B1G and SEC.

conference	revenue	payout per school
Big Ten	$845.6 million	$58.8 million - x
SEC	$802 million	$49.9 million
ACC	$617 million	$37.9 to $41.3 million
Pac-12	$580.9 million	$37 million
Big 12	$480.6 million	$42 to $44.9 million

 

[PMWinSTP]

the $44-mill figure is for total conference payout - as in the media deal PLUS other sources of revenue such as bowl games, the conference's share from the NCAA hoops tourney, etc.

The new Big-12 Media deal is for (I think) $31.7-million per school per year.

the media deal is only part of the total revenue stream for members of a P5 conference.

this is for the 2022 fiscal year. new media deals kicking in over the next couple of years will boost totals especially for B1G and SEC.

conference	revenue	payout per school
Big Ten	$845.6 million	$58.8 million - x
SEC	$802 million	$49.9 million
ACC	$617 million	$37.9 to $41.3 million
Pac-12	$580.9 million	$37 million
Big 12	$480.6 million	$42 to $44.9 million

B12 is essentially adding two teams next year so this math could change...the media contract does have a pro-rata clause.

 

[Gophers_4life]

if Kliavkoff comes up with a media deal that pays each school more than $25-million per year - including a linear (re: cable TV) partner, then the odds are better that the Pac-12 stays intact.

But if the deal is under $25-million - OR if the deal is based on a majority of the games being shown on a streaming service instead of linear - there is no way that all 10 remaining schools will sign a Grant of Rights.

$25M is a neat, out of thin air figure that someone made up. OK

under that scenario, then Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State head to the Big-12

Nope. Arizona schools have exactly zero history with the Big 6/7/8. Have been with the PAC group since the late 70's I believe.

while Oregon and Washington get on their knees and beg the B1G to let them in.

Nope. Would've been added with USCLA if it was going to be a thing.

Utah is the wild card - there has been no buzz or steam on Utah going to another conference - but if the Pac-12 unravels, Utah is not joining the Mountain West. They will find a P5 (soon to be P4) conference to join.

PAC will survive. They'll add Mountain West schools to maintain numbers.

and the clock is ticking.

Sure, clocks tick every day.

They have plenty of time. Maybe don't even announce something this summer. I'd get a kick out of that, just trolling all the conference realignment fangirls trying to force things to happen.

 

[mngolf]

$25M is a neat, out of thin air figure that someone made up. OK


Nope. Arizona schools have exactly zero history with the Big 6/7/8. Have been with the PAC group since the late 70's I believe.


Nope. Would've been added with USCLA if it was going to be a thing.


PAC will survive. They'll add Mountain West schools to maintain numbers.


Sure, clocks tick every day.

They have plenty of time. Maybe don't even announce something this summer. I'd get a kick out of that, just trolling all the conference realignment fangirls trying to force things to happen.

They do not have all summer. SDSU has already stated they are teady to move but if it doesn't happen by June 30, then they're out. Exit fee rises dramatically.

 

[Panthadad2]

More clickbait. More rumors.

 

[Gophers_4life]

They do not have all summer. SDSU has already stated they are teady to move but if it doesn't happen by June 30, then they're out. Exit fee rises dramatically.

They've been very clear that they will get the TV deal done first, then look at expansion.

SDSU has exactly zero authority or power to dictate a single thing.

If they "miss" their "window" ... that's their problem. Boo hoo