All Things 2024 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

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short ornery norwegian said:
The Vikes are not winning with Kirk Cousins.

Even if Cousins is 0% responsible for wins and losses - the Vikings are not winning with Kirk Cousins.

Vikings records in the Cousins era:
2018 = 8-7-1 -- missed playoffs
2019 = 10-6 -- lost 2nd round of playoffs
2020 = 7-9 -- missed playoffs
2021 = 8-9 -- missed playoffs
2022 = 13-4 -- lost 1st round of playoffs
2023 = 7-10 -- missed playoffs

The Vikes are not winning with Kirk Cousins.

But - according to some - the Vikes must keep Kirk Cousins. No other option should even be discussed. The Vikes must keep Kirk Cousins so that they................can go 1-2 in the playoffs over a 6-year period.

Let's keep doing something that has not worked. Because it might work in the future. Ya, sure.
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Are they winning more or fewer games with a rookie QB?

My money is solidly on fewer wins.

My reason for betting that way? Again, look at the odds. Check out the success/failure rate in the NFL over the past 20 years of teams who pick a QB in the first round, and then start him immediately.
 

GophersInIowa said:
There’s a reason why I’m laying on my couch right now and not coaching.

I don’t think the FO and coaches are dumb. If they bring Cousins back, they’ll have to have some kind of plan. It may not work of course though.

I would like us to draw up more pass plays like the Packers where there isn’t a defender within 10 yards of the receiver. KOC definitely has to step up his play calling.
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This is where I'm at as well.

I don't want any of my rationale or counterpoints to mean I think they absolutely need to bring back Cousins. Hell yes, I'd like them to go out and get a QB and move on. Absolutely. I'm just saying that it's kind of ridiculous to lose your mind if they don't make a move to draft a QB in Round 1. If the player they love, and checks ALL of their boxes, happens to be there or is available by moving up, go for it.

I don't know enough about the QBs in this years class and their strengths and how they fit with what KOC wants to do. I have no clue. We'll see, it'll be an interesting offseason.
 


howeda7 said:
Fitting end for Jordan Elvis Grbac Love.
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1st year mistake. Never, ever, ever, throw that ball! Really? Downfield, crossfield, across your body. Wow. Not like they didnt have plenty of time and 2 timeouts.

Think 49's will handily beat either Tampa or Detroit.
 

Interesting stat they showed yesterday. Of the last 8 remaining teams, 7 were qb'd by 1st round draft picks. Only Purdy was not.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
This is where I'm at as well.

I don't want any of my rationale or counterpoints to mean I think they absolutely need to bring back Cousins. Hell yes, I'd like them to go out and get a QB and move on. Absolutely. I'm just saying that it's kind of ridiculous to lose your mind if they don't make a move to draft a QB in Round 1. If the player they love, and checks ALL of their boxes, happens to be there or is available by moving up, go for it.

I don't know enough about the QBs in this years class and their strengths and how they fit with what KOC wants to do. I have no clue. We'll see, it'll be an interesting offseason.
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Yes. This is the correct answer. This is an honest, straightforward post that could apply to every single poster here.

We're not experts. Neither are Mackey 'n Judd. Neither are any of the KFAN comedy/sports personalities.

People have been hired, and paid well, by the billionaires who own the team to make decisions. Those people may succeed or they may fail, but in the long run they know more than we do, and therefore the odds of them making the right decisions, while far from 100%, are higher than if any one of us was put in charge.
 

TNGophfan said:
Interesting stat they showed yesterday. Of the last 8 remaining teams, 7 were qb'd by 1st round draft picks. Only Purdy was not.
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Two of those first round QBs — Mayfield and Goff — are no longer with the team that drafted them, because they were considered failed picks.

Mayfield has bounced around quite a bit. He's on his fourth team. Judging by the terms of the Goff-Stafford trade, the Rams were quite relieved to have Goff taken off of their hands.

The trade​

Lions received:QB Jared Goff, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, 2021 third-round pick
Rams received:QB Matthew Stafford

Again, I think it's wise to gather as much data as possible. The Big Picture. Look at the history of first round QBs over the last 20 years. It ain't pretty.
 



RememberMurray said:
Two of those first round QBs — Mayfield and Goff — are no longer with the team that drafted them, because they were considered failed picks.

Mayfield has bounced around quite a bit. He's on his fourth team. Judging by the terms of the Goff-Stafford trade, the Rams were quite relieved to have Goff taken off of their hands.

The trade​

Lions received:QB Jared Goff, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, 2021 third-round pick
Rams received:QB Matthew Stafford

Again, I think it's wise to gather as much data as possible. The Big Picture. Look at the history of first round QBs over the last 20 years. It ain't pretty.
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Sometimes it's just being in the right system with the right players and coaches. Goff and Mayfield examples 1A and 1B. Obviously an inexact science, just found the stat interesting.

I'm not going to do the research, but I wonder what the success rate is for other positions drafted in the 1st round.
 


TNGophfan said:
Sometimes it's just being in the right system with the right players and coaches. Goff and Mayfield examples 1A and 1B. Obviously an inexact science, just found the stat interesting.

I'm not going to do the research, but I wonder what the success rate is for other positions drafted in the 1st round.
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And the Rams likely don’t win their SB without Stafford.
 

RememberMurray said:
Yes. This is the correct answer. This is an honest, straightforward post that could apply to every single poster here.

We're not experts. Neither are Mackey 'n Judd. Neither are any of the KFAN comedy/sports personalities.
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Don’t tell Spaulding PA’s not an expert - his world may crumble.
RememberMurray said:
People have been hired, and paid well, by the billionaires who own the team to make decisions. Those people may succeed or they may fail, but in the long run they know more than we do, and therefore the odds of them making the right decisions, while far from 100%, are higher than if any one of us was put in charge.
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TNGophfan said:
Sometimes it's just being in the right system with the right players and coaches. Goff and Mayfield examples 1A and 1B. Obviously an inexact science, just found the stat interesting.
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I agree. You're 100% right. Would Tom Brady have been a Hall of Fame QB if he played for some hapless team, with a new set of coaches every few seasons? I doubt it.

TNGophfan said:
I'm not going to do the research, but I wonder what the success rate is for other positions drafted in the 1st round.
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Good question. Like you, I'm too lazy at the moment to look it up.
 

RememberMurray said:
Yes. This is the correct answer. This is an honest, straightforward post that could apply to every single poster here.

We're not experts. Neither are Mackey 'n Judd. Neither are any of the KFAN comedy/sports personalities.

People have been hired, and paid well, by the billionaires who own the team to make decisions. Those people may succeed or they may fail, but in the long run they know more than we do, and therefore the odds of them making the right decisions, while far from 100%, are higher than if any one of us was put in charge.
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I would have rather had you throwing darts at the defensive draft the board the past 10 years and picking what the dart landed on than the geniuses in this front office.

We'd have come out way ahead.
 

TNGophfan said:
I don't disagree on that and think Stafford is a better QB, but this year Goff has had more success. Stafford a 1st round pick too.
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Yes. And Stafford played for years and years on a terrible Lions team, but he always played hard and well, considering the circumstances.

Before he went to the Rams, through 12 seasons 'his' won-loss record was 74-90. He was 0-3 in the playoffs during his Detroit tenure.

What would Mackey 'n' Judd have said about him back then, I wonder?
 


kg21 said:
I would have rather had you throwing darts at the defensive draft the board the past 10 years and picking what the dart landed on than the geniuses in this front office.

We'd have come out way ahead.
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Are you sure? You've never seen me throw darts.

Which pub would be in, and how many beers will I have consumed?
 

Just for yuks and grins, I did some research on the 32 1st string qb's in NFL. By analysis, 19 of the 32 were picked in the 1st round and 3 more in 2nd (Carr, Hurts and Geno Smith). Couple of caveats. I included Rodgers, Burrow and Herbert even though they missed some or most of season. Biggest caveat is Daniel Jones. He started year #1 , but lost his job to DeVito so you might want to take him off.

Not sure exactly what it means but it indicates that the majority (about 70%) of starting qb's were 1st or 2nd round picks. I know there are a lot of failed 1st round qb's but trying to find the "right guy" later in the draft is a bigger crap shoot.
 

RememberMurray said:
Are you sure? You've never seen me throw darts.

Which pub would be in, and how many beers will I have consumed?
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Fine, then we don't make a pick.

It would basically be the same thing.
 

The only other notables I felt were Cousins, 4th round, Prescott, 5th round, Purdy, 7th round and if you want to include him, Russell Wilson, 3rd round.
 





GophersInIowa said:
It would be a bold move for sure and their jobs would be dependent on it working.
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Their jobs are dependent on it anyway, so really what's the difference? If they play it safe and keep Cousins and keep stringing along 8-10 win seasons, they can maybe eek another couple years out before they get fired. Swinging for the fences may get them fired sooner, but if it works it would likely set them up for years. Get a good QB and he stays healthy, and you'll be relevant as a team for the next 10-15 years.
 

forever a gopher said:
Their jobs are dependent on it anyway, so really what's the difference? If they play it safe and keep Cousins and keep stringing along 8-10 win seasons, they can maybe eek another couple years out before they get fired. Swinging for the fences may get them fired sooner, but if it works it would likely set them up for years. Get a good QB and he stays healthy, and you'll be relevant as a team for the next 10-15 years.
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I guess my point is that would be a hard mistake to recover from. They’d be putting their jobs on the line with that one move.
 

was looking for info on success rate of 1st-round draft picks.

found this based on data from 2000 through 2022

this study classified a "miss" as a player performing below the 60th percentile on PFF grades. overall, average for the 1st round was 20.7 hits and 11.1 misses - so about 2/3 of 1st-round draft picks were considered successful based on this study.

by position from highest miss rate to lowest.
1. CB - miss rate over 60%
2. Safety - approx 50%
3. Edge rusher - just over 40%
4. WR - just over 40%
5. DT/NG - approx 35%
6. QB - just under 30%
7. G/C - just under 30%
8. OT - just over 20%
9. LB - just over 20%
10. RB - just under 20%
11. TE - just over 10%

so statistically over a 20+ year period, the safest position to draft in the 1st round is TE, and the riskiest position to draft in the 1st round is CB. roughly 7 of every 10 QB's drafted in the 1st round were considered successful by the standards of the study.

note - I couldn't find raw numbers, so I don't know how many players were taken per position.
In general, D-Line and O-Line tend to be drafted the most often for the entire draft, but could not find a breakdown for 1st round only.
 


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