All Things 2024 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

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Slim Tubby said:
I've watched all but three (3) of his games this year. All of the big boards that I've read have him ranked anywhere from 23 - 48 as a prospect. By most accounts, our price to move up to 4/5 is expected to be:

Pick 11 (2024)
Pick 42 (2024) (HOU)
1st Round Pick (2025)
2nd Round Pick (2025) (HOU)

I'll trade that for Williams. I'll trade that for Daniels. Not a chance is JJ or Maye worth that to me from what I've watched of the top 4 guys.

There is no way that JJ is worth two (2) FRP's more in value/risk than Penix or Nix, not to mention the other high draft pick potential, IMO.
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FWIW, The Athletic just dropped their revised overall 100 Big Board.

theathletic.com

2024 NFL Draft consensus Big Board: Which prospects are rising, falling in March?

The Athletic’s consensus Big Board combines rankings from a wide range of draft experts to identify how the top prospects are viewed.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

Some interesting notes -

#1 Harrison
#43 Nubin

QBs

#2 Williams
#3 Maye
#9 Daniels
#22 McCarthy
#33 Nix
#45 Pennix
#100 Rattler
 

TNGophfan said:
I hate the idea of giving away the franchise for a "maybe" great QB. Too many other holes.
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How has that worked out for the Vikings franchise so far?

We haven’t been to the Super Bowl since the 70s. That was also the last time we had a franchise QB.
 

Slim Tubby said:
I've watched all but three (3) of his games this year. All of the big boards that I've read have him ranked anywhere from 23 - 48 as a prospect. By most accounts, our price to move up to 4/5 is expected to be:

Pick 11 (2024)
Pick 42 (2024) (HOU)
1st Round Pick (2025)
2nd Round Pick (2025) (HOU)

I'll trade that for Williams. I'll trade that for Daniels. Not a chance is JJ or Maye worth that to me from what I've watched of the top 4 guys.

There is no way that JJ is worth two (2) FRP's more in value/risk than Penix or Nix, not to mention the other high draft pick potential, IMO.
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I'm not sure what they'll have to give up, it may not be quite that much. Saying you'll trade that for Daniels or Williams, but not Maye or JJ also doesn't make a ton of sense when they're not separated by much. I think Williams has the best chance of being a bust of the 4.

Even if they give up that much to land Maye or JJ, and they become the franchise QB for the next 15 years, it won't matter. It will look like a steal.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I'm not sure what they'll have to give up, it may not be quite that much. Saying you'll trade that for Daniels or Williams, but not Maye or JJ also doesn't make a ton of sense when they're not separated by much. I think Williams has the best chance of being a bust of the 4.

Even if they give up that much to land Maye or JJ, and they become the franchise QB for the next 15 years, it won't matter. It will look like a steal.
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I completely agree with your second paragraph. Personally, I have a huge gap between Williams/Daniels and the next group of QB's.

I want a young QB as much as anyone but at some point, being overly careless with high draft picks crosses a line to being just plain reckless.
 

Slim Tubby said:
I completely agree with your second paragraph. Personally, I have a huge gap between Williams/Daniels and the next group of QB's.

I want a young QB as much as anyone but at some point, being overly careless with high draft picks crosses a line to being just plain reckless.
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It's not reckless until you know what they give up, who they get, and how they perform.

Why do you have such a big gap between Williams/Daniels compared to Maye/JJ?
 


MplsGopher said:
This is just you evangelizing your fake religion.

Since the start of the current rookie pay scales, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if more teams got to the Super Bowl on the backs of QBs not on a rookie contract.

It’s a reasonable idea on paper, but in practice it just doesn’t matter anywhere near as much as you badly want to pretend that it does.
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Casting Cousins off at QB to get hopefully a younger, cheaper and as reasonably talented was perhaps the entire reason they did not resign him.

The current rookie wage scale has only been in place since 2010, so any data would be skewed by the QBs that were already established (ie Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger).

These teams get to the SB with the help of a QB on a rookie wage scale.

2013 - Ravens / Flacco (still on old system)
49ers / Kaepernick
2014 - Seahawks / Wilson
2015 - Seahawks / Wilson
2016 - Panthers / Newton
2019 - Rams / Goff
2020 - Chiefs / Mahomes
2021 - Chiefs / Mahomes
2022 - Bengals / Burrow
2023 - Eagles / Hurts
2024 - 49ers / Purdy

Preach. It happens, often. Especially so for teams that are not employing TB12 or Mahomes (past his rookie contract).
 
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GopherWeatherGuy said:
It's not reckless until you know what they give up, who they get, and how they perform.

Why do you have such a big gap between Williams/Daniels compared to Maye/JJ?
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100%.

And as far as how the QBs are ranked, I would guess a lot of people would be shocked at how some of these teams REALLY have them ranked. I think it's likely you wouldn't get a consensus on Williams being #1 for starters.

These are the same mocks that had Malik Willis in the top 5/10 at this time of the year a few years ago, along with Dwayne Haskins and Daniel Jones well ahead of Kyler Murray.
 

Ope3 said:
2013 - Ravens / Flacco (still on old system)
49ers / Kaepernick
2014 - Seahawks / Wilson
2015 - Seahawks / Wilson
2016 - Panthers / Newton
2019 - Rams / Goff
2020 - Chiefs / Mahomes
2021 - Chiefs / Mahomes
2022 - Bengals / Burrow
2023 - Eagles / Hurts
2024 - 49ers / Purdy
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2011 - 2024 (SB dates) is 14 SB * 2 teams = 28 SB teams.

11/28 = 32.9% of teams had a rookie pay scale QB
17/28 = 67.1% of teams did not

It doesn’t matter anywhere nearly as much as you want to pretend.


This is now put to bed.
 

MplsGopher said:
2011 - 2024 (SB dates) is 14 SB * 2 teams = 28 SB teams.

11/28 = 32.9% of teams had a rookie pay scale QB
17/28 = 67.1% of teams did not

It doesn’t matter anywhere nearly as much as you want to pretend.


This is now put to bed.
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It's happened 6 years in a row. I would say that's a trend.

Could also say 7, because Wentz was on a Rookie Deal for the Eagles heading into the 2018 SB. He got injured past the halfway mark of the season and they went with Foles, who was actually cheaper. If that is shoe horned in, ONLY 2017 (Falcons-Patriots) did at least one team not have a QB on the Rookie Pay Scale.

As I said it's skewed somewhat by QBs already established in 2011. Also not exactly apples to apples the first few years as in 2011 only QBs drafted that year would count. By 2012 there were 2 draft classes would be applicable and so on until 2015.

I appreciate your comments today which got me to look at the data more and convince me that a QB on the Rookie Pay Scale is much more viable/valuable than I previously thought.

Good one.

Since 2015 the most efficient ways to get to the Super Bowl:

1. Employ an already established QB named Tom Brady or Peyton Manning
2. Get a good young QB in the first 5 Years of his contract.
3. Hope that Rookie QB turns into Pat Mahomes.
 




Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
100%.

And as far as how the QBs are ranked, I would guess a lot of people would be shocked at how some of these teams REALLY have them ranked. I think it's likely you wouldn't get a consensus on Williams being #1 for starters.

These are the same mocks that had Malik Willis in the top 5/10 at this time of the year a few years ago, along with Dwayne Haskins and Daniel Jones well ahead of Kyler Murray.
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You make my point for me. All of these guys (and many others) had their value and draft stock way overinflated leading up to the Draft because of the position they play and the desperation across the league to have one.

Just about a month ago, McCarthy was universally thought of as a 2nd Round talent and now some people believe he's worth the equivalent of three (3) 1st Round picks? What has changed? False perception, position bias and front office desperation...that's what.

Based on our Division and 2024 schedule, it's HIGHLY likely we will have a Top 10 pick in 2025, potentially a Top 5 pick. I'm not trading that with #23 to move up seven (7) spots on what statistically has proven to be far less than a coin flip. Just my opinion.
 

Slim Tubby said:
You make my point for me. All of these guys (and many others) had their value and draft stock way overinflated leading up to the Draft because of the position they play and the desperation across the league to have one.

Just about a month ago, McCarthy was universally thought of as a 2nd Round talent and now some people believe he's worth the equivalent of three (3) 1st Round picks? What has changed? False perception, position bias and front office desperation...that's what.

Based on our Division and 2024 schedule, it's HIGHLY likely we will have a Top 10 pick in 2025, potentially a Top 5 pick. I'm not trading that with #23 to move up seven (7) spots on what statistically has proven to be far less than a coin flip. Just my opinion.
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Mocks in January and February are just about completely meaningless. Those are scout takes, and have nothing to do with NFL fits, scheme fits, team fits, etc. Mocks before mid-April mean about as much as NCAA FBS football rankings in September. Nothing.
 

NFL.com had a mock this morning of the Broncos taking Nix at 12, so even waiting and taking him at 23 might not work.
 



hey, I don't know squat - but I am pretty sure about this:

if any of us is "wrong" about the draft, we will face no consequences, other than some ribbing from other posters.

if an NFL GM is wrong about the draft, they will face very real consequences, up to and including loss of their job and their professional reputation.

I may disagree with the decisions made by the Vikes' front office, but that does not mean I would be willing to trade places with them. I don't want that type of pressure.
 

Ope3 said:
Casting Cousins off at QB to get hopefully a younger, cheaper and as reasonably talented was perhaps the entire reason they did not resign him.

The current rookie wage scale has only been in place since 2010, so any data would be skewed by the QBs that were already established (ie Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger).

These teams get to the SB with the help of a QB on a rookie wage scale.

2013 - Ravens / Flacco (still on old system)
49ers / Kaepernick
2014 - Seahawks / Wilson
2015 - Seahawks / Wilson
2016 - Panthers / Newton
2019 - Rams / Goff
2020 - Chiefs / Mahomes
2021 - Chiefs / Mahomes
2022 - Bengals / Burrow
2023 - Eagles / Hurts
2024 - 49ers / Purdy

Preach. It happens, often. Especially so for teams that are not employing TB12 or Mahomes (past his rookie contract).
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Eagles and injured Wentz
 

Ope3 said:
It's happened 6 years in a row. I would say that's a trend.

Could also say 7, because Wentz was on a Rookie Deal for the Eagles heading into the 2018 SB. He got injured past the halfway mark of the season and they went with Foles, who was actually cheaper. If that is shoe horned in, ONLY 2017 (Falcons-Patriots) did at least one team not have a QB on the Rookie Pay Scale.

As I said it's skewed somewhat by QBs already established in 2011. Also not exactly apples to apples the first few years as in 2011 only QBs drafted that year would count. By 2012 there were 2 draft classes would be applicable and so on until 2015.

I appreciate your comments today which got me to look at the data more and convince me that a QB on the Rookie Pay Scale is much more viable/valuable than I previously thought.

Good one.

Since 2015 the most efficient ways to get to the Super Bowl:

1. Employ an already established QB named Tom Brady or Peyton Manning
2. Get a good young QB in the first 5 Years of his contract.
3. Hope that Rookie QB turns into Pat Mahomes.
Click to expand...
This. It's a simple formula.
 

Ope3 said:
It's happened 6 years in a row. I would say that's a trend.
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Agreed. Will be interesting to see if it continues.

Mahomes, Burrow, and Hurts are or were exceptional multitalented athletes while Goff and Purdy were just good throwers.

Ope3 said:
Since 2015 the most efficient ways to get to the Super Bowl:

1. Employ an already established QB named Tom Brady or Peyton Manning
2. Get a good young QB in the first 5 Years of his contract.
3. Hope that Rookie QB turns into Pat Mahomes.
Click to expand...
You’ll never be able to even claim “having a rookie payscale QB is the best choice for a team trying to get to the SB”.

You’re trying to claim a thing closer to that than not, and the data proves that is false. It highly depends on who the team has, cap space, and what QB options are actually available. Captain obvious.

There are many, many rookie payscale QBs that don’t work and in hindsight were a waste of time. That is being glossed over by just looking at the few who have made a SB under their rookie deals.

A much weaker thing that is reasonable to claim “having a rookie QB can be one path with a decent chance to get to the SB, if you have a good to exceptional rookie QB”.
 

swede2 said:
This. It's a simple formula.
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“Have a really good QB on your team” is indeed a simple formula. It’s a wonder that all 32 teams don’t do this every year! :cool:

What hasn’t at all been proven is any kind of correlation between how much of your cap space goes to your starting QB and your season outcome.

I’m guessing there is nearly none.
 


MplsGopher said:
2011 - 2024 (SB dates) is 14 SB * 2 teams = 28 SB teams.

11/28 = 32.9% of teams had a rookie pay scale QB
17/28 = 67.1% of teams did not

It doesn’t matter anywhere nearly as much as you want to pretend.


This is now put to bed.
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The statistic should really be 12 and 16. Wentz was on rookie deal and Foles even cheaper.

Of the 16, 5 were QB'd by TB12, 3 by Mahomes, and 2 by Peyton Manning, three all timers. Throw the Eli Super Bowl in and that's 11 of the 16 QB'd by HOFers.

So unless a team can figure out how to get a HOFer without drafting them, a team is more likely to get to the SB with a rookie scale QB then a good not great QB like Matt Ryan or Matt Stafford.
 

True, but those ;picks come at the end of the third round.........
howeda7 said:
NFL.com had a mock this morning of the Broncos taking Nix at 12, so even waiting and taking him at 23 might not work.
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Kipers latest has McCarthy falling to the Vikings at 11.

The problem is that the Vikings may not have the patience to find out if he falls that far.
 


swede2 said:
Eagles and injured Wentz
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Thanks, yes, as you saw I went back and included Wentz/Foles in the Eagles in 2018

Explanation: I did not include it initially, because I wanted to be fair with the 49ers thinking they actually intended to start Jimmy G instead of Purdy. However, that was last year when they lost in the NFC Championship.

This year they did start Purdy from the get go as Jimmy G was in Vegas.
 

MplsGopher said:
You’ll never be able to even claim “having a rookie payscale QB is the best choice for a team trying to get to the SB”.

You’re trying to claim a thing closer to that than not, and the data proves that is false. It highly depends on who the team has, cap space, and what QB options are actually available. Captain obvious.

There are many, many rookie payscale QBs that don’t work and in hindsight were a waste of time. That is being glossed over by just looking at the few who have made a SB under their rookie deals.

A much weaker thing that is reasonable to claim “having a rookie QB can be one path with a decent chance to get to the SB, if you have a good to exceptional rookie QB”.
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It's the best because in the past 11 seasons, if the QB was not named Brady, Manning or Mahomes the Rookie Pay Scale QB was the most common.

The only 3 that don't fit those 2 buckets that I can see in the past 11 SBs were:

2017 - Atlanta/Ryan (well beyond his Rookie Deal)
2020 - San Fran/Jimmy G (acquired via trade from NE)
2022 - LA Rams/Stafford (acquired via trade from Det)

Sure lots of Rookies flamed out. So did lots of others signed via Free Agency or Trade.
 



kg21 said:
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I just heard this earlier today, that there's a lot of noise coming out of Boston that the Vikings are talking to them about moving up. I don't buy it for a minute, the Pats trying to drum up interest from other teams wanting to move up.

I'm inclined to believe about 11% of the things we're going to hear in the next 4 weeks. And I really don't expect any draft trades until the actual draft, at least when it comes to those picks in the 2-5 range. Who wants to move up to #3 until they know who Washington takes at #2? And so on.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
I just heard this earlier today, that there's a lot of noise coming out of Boston that the Vikings are talking to them about moving up. I don't buy it for a minute, the Pats trying to drum up interest from other teams wanting to move up.

I'm inclined to believe about 11% of the things we're going to hear in the next 4 weeks. And I really don't expect any draft trades until the actual draft, at least when it comes to those picks in the 2-5 range. Who wants to move up to #3 until they know who Washington takes at #2? And so on.
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I'd rather that MN teams quit dealing with Boston altogether--the talent that heads that way (Luis Tiant, David Ortiz, KG, Randy Moss)* always seems superior to that we receive back (Matt Cassel, Al Jefferson, Marcus Banks, Ryan Gomes, Frankie Rodriguez) from the Back Bay. That a fanbase comprised on the biggest bag of dicks this side of Philadelphia doesn't help either.

* Yes, I know that Tiant, Ortiz, and Moss were not directly traded to the respective Boston area franchises.
 

coolhandgopher said:
I'd rather that MN teams quit dealing with Boston altogether--the talent that heads that way (Luis Tiant, David Ortiz, KG, Randy Moss)* always seems superior to that we receive back (Matt Cassel, Al Jefferson, Marcus Banks, Ryan Gomes, Frankie Rodriguez) from the Back Bay. That a fanbase comprised on the biggest bag of dicks this side of Philadelphia doesn't help either.

* Yes, I know that Tiant, Ortiz, and Moss were not directly traded to the respective Boston area franchises.
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I think you are being unfair to Marcus Banks, coolhand. I was at his first game in a wolves uniform at TC and he went off big time. After that, well.......
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
I just heard this earlier today, that there's a lot of noise coming out of Boston that the Vikings are talking to them about moving up. I don't buy it for a minute, the Pats trying to drum up interest from other teams wanting to move up.

I'm inclined to believe about 11% of the things we're going to hear in the next 4 weeks. And I really don't expect any draft trades until the actual draft, at least when it comes to those picks in the 2-5 range. Who wants to move up to #3 until they know who Washington takes at #2? And so on.
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Vikings personal workout with JJM is a scam too.

Trying to make other teams think he’s #1 on our board. Nothing more
 

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