All Things 2024-25 Vikings Regular Season Thread

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Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
First off, this thrilled me greatly, as I still have a hefty amount of cash coming in, at 35-1 odds, on the Bears losing all 6 NFC North division games! Step one, complete!

As far as the FG and the attempt, one of former GM Michael Lombardi's pet peeves is "makable FG range"; as in, just because you're within a 45-55 yard FG attempt, doesn't mean you've done your job. You should continue to try to get as close as possible, keep moving the ball forward. I totally agree. The Bears hosed this up miraculously.

The only thing I would add is I dis agree with those that say from 45-yds, you're kicking the ball at a lower trajectory. I don't agree with that. For any NFL kicker, you would only be doing that either into the wind (I don't know if that kick was?) or for like 55-yd and beyond. The Bears just botched the blocking, or the kicker inadvertently kicked it too low. I'd bet any amount of money he wasn't kicking it low due to the distance.
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I'd seen people several times that the Bears kicker does it kick it lower than most when at a greater distance.
 

GophersInIowa said:
That's close.

NFL coaches continue to make crazy decisions. So the Bears got to the 30 yard line with the clock stopped and :35 seconds left. They ran the ball, picked up 2 yards and just let the clock tick down to :03 before taking a TO. Then had a FG blocked at 45 yards. I don't get it, they just moved down the field, you can't settle for long FGs in situations like that. I get you have a rookie QB but get him on the outside or something where has options to throw it away or run if the receivers aren't open.
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Currently, the percentages of kicks in 2024:
0-39 yards: 98%
40-49: 77%
50+: 76%

The end of the game by the Bears was baffling. They had enough time and downs to run 2 more plays than they did if they were smart. You don't need to get 20 yards; just get 5-10 more and your chances go up considerably.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/football/2024/nfl-stats-kickers-brandon-aubrey-1234800530/
 


Wally said:
He is our best player, I like when those align.
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No question he's our best player.

The point is: he's a wide receiver, not a QB or a left tackle or a dominant edge rusher.

I have doubts that it's smart management to build your team around a WR, no matter how good he is. I hope I'm wrong.
 



RememberMurray said:
No question he's our best player.

The point is: he's a wide receiver, not a QB or a left tackle or a dominant edge rusher.

I have doubts that it's smart management to build your team around a WR, no matter how good he is. I hope I'm wrong.
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It's cheaper than building your team around a mediocre QB.

Look at Atlanta and Dallas
 

RememberMurray said:
No question he's our best player.

The point is: he's a wide receiver, not a QB or a left tackle or a dominant edge rusher.

I have doubts that it's smart management to build your team around a WR, no matter how good he is. I hope I'm wrong.
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I would argue an elite WR has just as much impact as an elite LT or edge rusher. He's making an impact even when he's not catching the ball because he gets so much attention.
 

Wally said:
We only have to beat Detroit once.
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If you are talking about to win the NFC North, nope.

Minnesota's only other loss is currently LA Rams (Lions beat them).
Detroit's only loss currently is to Tampa (who the Vikings don't play).

If both teams won out other than the Minnesota beating Lions at Ford Field, they would be tied at 15-2, but the Lions would have the better record against common opponents.

3rd Tiebreaker:
  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.
  6. Strength of schedule in all games
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss
 




Wally said:
In the playoffs
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Correct, it's Best of 1 in the post-season.

In theory a bit more difficult to even get to face them without winning the Division and have to play perhaps as many as 2 road games, but should they indeed square off...just have to be better that day.

Any given Sunday. Or Saturday. Or Monday. (In the Playoffs).
 

RememberMurray said:
No question he's our best player.

The point is: he's a wide receiver, not a QB or a left tackle or a dominant edge rusher.

I have doubts that it's smart management to build your team around a WR, no matter how good he is. I hope I'm wrong.
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FWIW, in my previous post (1.227), there’s a reference to actual data to support the impact he has on opposing defenses; this type of information is fairly new and published by a publication which is on the cutting edge of said data (The Athletic) - that’s why so many of the FO leaders now have extensive financial/statistical expertise, as this is their bailiwick - it’s anew paradigm😀

All Things 2024-25 Vikings Regular Season Thread

Death, taxes and Vikings turnovers
gopherhole.com gopherhole.com
 
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Gopher_In_NYC said:
FWIW, in my previous post (1.227), there’s a reference to actual data to support the impact he has on opposing defenses; this type of information is fairly new and published by a publication which is on the cutting edge of said data (The Athletic) - that’s why so many of the FO leaders now have extensive financial/statistical expertise, as this is their bailiwick - it’s anew paradigm😀

All Things 2024-25 Vikings Regular Season Thread

Death, taxes and Vikings turnovers
gopherhole.com gopherhole.com
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Your post was excellent... well-reasoned. I'm not disagreeing with the gist of it. Jefferson is very impactful.

It could be that the times have changed and we are now on the cutting edge of a new trend to make a wide receiver the keystone of every team's offense.

I have my doubts.

The 'old' model was to build around a top QB and a great offensive line. Like the Patriots. Like the Chiefs.

Maybe the Vikings will create a new way of doing things, and win multiple Lombardi trophies with Jefferson as the key figure on the team. We'll see.
 

RememberMurray said:
Your post was excellent... well-reasoned. I'm not disagreeing with the gist of it. Jefferson is very impactful.
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Thank you😃
RememberMurray said:
It could be that the times have changed and we are now on the cutting edge of a new trend to make a wide receiver the keystone of every team's offense.
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I noted that he is a unicorn, one of one; based on him having the most receiving yards through 5 seasons ever, the highest per game avg. and how he opens up the rest of the field for the rest of our playmakers, I feel he’s worth it. If he didn’t meet all of those criteria, than I wouldn’t do it and I doubt the Vikings would.
RememberMurray said:
I have my doubts.

The 'old' model was to build around a top QB and a great offensive line. Like the Patriots. Like the Chiefs.
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Both Brady and Mahomes, were on rookie contracts and that allowed them to build around them and they also ended up being unicorns - they were their JJs. Brady was a guy in the right place at the right time.

The hope is that JJ is going to be a competent to good QB, on a rookie contract.

The Vikings have a ton of cap space to improve the offensive line and D Backs, in addition to the draft.
RememberMurray said:
Maybe the Vikings will create a new way of doing things, and win multiple Lombardi trophies with Jefferson as the key figure on the team. We'll see.
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Will this work?

No one knows, least of all me. I do know that they have a plan and their defensive FA acquisitions this year, have been good, so I have hope and that’s more than I’ve had in a long time😃🤞
 



Gopher_In_NYC said:
Thank you😃

Both Brady and Mahomes, were on rookie contracts and that allowed them to build around them and they also ended up being unicorns - they were their JJs. Brady was a guy in the right place at the right time.

The hope is that JJ is going to be a competent to good QB, on a rookie contract.
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I don't recall either the Patriots or Chiefs giving league-best contracts to a wide receiver, though. Not even when their QBs were on rookie deals. Maybe I'm wrong about that.
 

RememberMurray said:
I don't recall either the Patriots or Chiefs giving league-best contracts to a wide receiver, though. Not even when their QBs were on rookie deals. Maybe I'm wrong about that.
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You’re correct, neither did they have the statistically best WR ever through 5 seasons as the Vikings do🤷‍♂️

My point is that he’s not just any WR, but the best ever in the first 5 seasons he’s played , so he’s worth it.

Comparing other receivers to him, to me, is a moot point.
 
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RememberMurray said:
I don't recall either the Patriots or Chiefs giving league-best contracts to a wide receiver, though. Not even when their QBs were on rookie deals. Maybe I'm wrong about that.
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Odd time to rehash this argument when the Vikings are 8-2 and they drafted their future QB in the top 10 of last years draft.

The only thing that will prevent this team from contending for a title this season is a better QB. The only way to get a franchise QB is to draft one, which the Vikings attempted to do in the last draft. Who else are they going to spend that money on right now? They have two highly paid tackles, and are tied for 3rd in the league in sacks thanks to the FA's they were able to bring in to replace Hunter.

Jefferson's cap hit doesn't really increase until 2026, and they still are projected to have 150 million in cap space right now. If McCarthy ends up being a franchise QB, they won't have to pay him until Jefferson's contract is up, and he'll be pushing 30 at that point.

Mahomes won his first Super Bowl with Tyreek Hill as the 3rd highest paid WR in the league and Kelce as the 2nd highest paid TE.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Odd time to rehash this argument when the Vikings are 8-2 and they drafted their future QB in the top 10 of last years draft.

The only thing that will prevent this team from contending for a title this season is a better QB. The only way to get a franchise QB is to draft one, which the Vikings attempted to do in the last draft. Who else are they going to spend that money on right now? They have two highly paid tackles, and are tied for 3rd in the league in sacks thanks to the FA's they were able to bring in to replace Hunter.

Jefferson's cap hit doesn't really increase until 2026, and they still are projected to have 150 million in cap space right now. If McCarthy ends up being a franchise QB, they won't have to pay him until Jefferson's contract is up, and he'll be pushing 30 at that point.

Mahomes won his first Super Bowl with Tyreek Hill as the 3rd highest paid WR in the league and Kelce as the 2nd highest paid TE.
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As I said, neither the Chiefs nor the Patriots ever had a WR as their highest-paid player. The Vikings are trying a new approach, and many Viking fans love it.

Make a WR the centerpiece of your team.

Let's see how it works out, compared to the Patriots/Chiefs model.
 

Like Wally said, would you really want your highest paid player on the team not be your most impactful?

I get where Murray is coming from, though, when you factor in a WR only touches the ball 5-12 times a game.

JJ opens up the rest of the field for everyone else and is worth every penny IMO.
 

RememberMurray said:
As I said, neither the Chiefs nor the Patriots ever had a WR as their highest-paid player. The Vikings are trying a new approach, and many Viking fans love it.

Make a WR the centerpiece of your team.

Let's see how it works out, compared to the Patriots/Chiefs model.
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Actually Sammy Watkins had by far the biggest cap hit for the 2019 Chiefs at 19 million, 8.5 million higher than their 2nd highest cap it Travis Kelce. When I mentioned Hill earlier much of his salary didn't count against the cap that season.

So their two highest paid players against the cap for Mahomes first Super Bowl win were pass catchers, plus they had Hill on top of that.
 

RememberMurray said:
As I said, neither the Chiefs nor the Patriots ever had a WR as their highest-paid player. The Vikings are trying a new approach, and many Viking fans love it.

Make a WR the centerpiece of your team.

Let's see how it works out, compared to the Patriots/Chiefs model.
Click to expand...

I hear what you are saying, and I would agree almost all of the time. NO, you absolutely do NOT build your team around a WR. The Raiders showed that with the acquisition of D. Adams. A disaster.

The difference here is, I would argue that the Vikings are NOT building their team around Jefferson. They have built their team around making Darrisaw and O'Neill one of the highest paid tandems of OT in the league. They built the defense by bringing in Home Run FA signings like Cashman, Van Ginkel and Greenard.

The difference here is, there is a clear and obvious plan in place moving forward. The other important distinction is WHEN they paid Jefferson; they paid him when it didn't weaken the rest of the roster.

This is not the Vikings "trying a new approach". They paid Jefferson when it didn't matter. Nobody expected the Vikings to compete this year. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the Vikings move off Jefferson a few years down the road, near when it's time to start paying McCarthy (hopefully that's the case), just like the Chiefs moved off Tyreek Hill at the right time.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
First off, this thrilled me greatly, as I still have a hefty amount of cash coming in, at 35-1 odds, on the Bears losing all 6 NFC North division games! Step one, complete!

As far as the FG and the attempt, one of former GM Michael Lombardi's pet peeves is "makable FG range"; as in, just because you're within a 45-55 yard FG attempt, doesn't mean you've done your job. You should continue to try to get as close as possible, keep moving the ball forward. I totally agree. The Bears hosed this up miraculously.

The only thing I would add is I dis agree with those that say from 45-yds, you're kicking the ball at a lower trajectory. I don't agree with that. For any NFL kicker, you would only be doing that either into the wind (I don't know if that kick was?) or for like 55-yd and beyond. The Bears just botched the blocking, or the kicker inadvertently kicked it too low. I'd bet any amount of money he wasn't kicking it low due to the distance.
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Gink!
 

Not to get off topic but can we please be done with Dallas in national games. Oh wait they have 4 left this year. What an embarrassment.
 

From the Parkinglot said:
Not to get off topic but can we please be done with Dallas in national games. Oh wait they have 4 left this year. What an embarrassment.
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It could be worse. The Jets have 6 prime time games and haven’t seen the playoffs since 2011. At least the Cowboys went to (and won a game) as recently as 2022.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
I hear what you are saying, and I would agree almost all of the time. NO, you absolutely do NOT build your team around a WR. The Raiders showed that with the acquisition of D. Adams. A disaster.

The difference here is, I would argue that the Vikings are NOT building their team around Jefferson. They have built their team around making Darrisaw and O'Neill one of the highest paid tandems of OT in the league. They built the defense by bringing in Home Run FA signings like Cashman, Van Ginkel and Greenard.

The difference here is, there is a clear and obvious plan in place moving forward. The other important distinction is WHEN they paid Jefferson; they paid him when it didn't weaken the rest of the roster.

This is not the Vikings "trying a new approach". They paid Jefferson when it didn't matter. Nobody expected the Vikings to compete this year. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the Vikings move off Jefferson a few years down the road, near when it's time to start paying McCarthy (hopefully that's the case), just like the Chiefs moved off Tyreek Hill at the right time.
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Well stated. Good post.
 




From the Parkinglot said:
Not to get off topic but can we please be done with Dallas in national games. Oh wait they have 4 left this year. What an embarrassment.
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Classic Hater Post🤦‍♂️

Jerry Said - Them Cowboys have the 6th best winning % since their SB winning 90 teams.

Except that’s wrong Jer; you have the 11th best winning % 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I don’t think Jerry cares, cause he’s rolling in the dough
 

RememberMurray said:
I don't recall either the Patriots or Chiefs giving league-best contracts to a wide receiver, though. Not even when their QBs were on rookie deals. Maybe I'm wrong about that.
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KOC on PA today said no other receiver in the league gets played by defenses like Jefferson. He often has 3 of the 5 DBs covering him or favoring him. He changes the game.
 

Wally said:
KOC on PA today said no other receiver in the league gets played by defenses like Jefferson. He often has 3 of the 5 DBs covering him or favoring him. He changes the game.
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Vikings are currently 15th in yards per game.

13th in passing yards per game.

19th in rushing yards per game.

10th in points per game.

Meanwhile, Vikings defense is tied for first in takeaways.

It looks (on the surface, at least) like the Brian Flores defense is what's working best.
 

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