All Things 2023 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

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Gophers_4life said:
Agree that's how you minimize risk.

You're proving my point, again.

They're only setting the line like that because they think bettors think the Lions will win.
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The risk is minimized by setting the odds based on analytics beforehand then adjusted based on the betting handle.

If you believe the Vegas/Draft King books really think the Vikings are the favorite but are willing to pay out nearly double (+250 vs +130) despite that, it's just foolish. Crazy foolish. Impossible.

If it was something in the $10 - $20 range difference, then maybe. A difference in excess of $100?!?!? No chance.
 

Ope3 said:
The risk is minimized by setting the odds based on analytics beforehand then adjusted based on the betting handle.
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No ... the entire time you do it based on how you think bettors will bet.

You just said risk is minimized based on getting equal bets placed.

"Analytics" only matter in as much as the public/bettors also know them.

Ope3 said:
If you believe the Vegas/Draft King books really think the Vikings are the favorite but are willing to pay out nearly double (+250 vs +130) despite that
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Why is this so hard for you?

They're setting them like that because they think that fewer bettors think the Vikings will win.


That has nothing to do with what they actually think themselves.
 


Ope3 said:
That's false.
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Risk minimization has literally only to do with what the bettors think.

Unless you think the book itself is trying to convince bettors to bet a certain way? That's the only possible thing left where what you're saying can make any sense.


If there are 15 bettors, and 5 of them are determined to bet for the Vikings and 10 of them are determined to bet for the Lions, then that's that. It doesn't actually matter what the book thinks will happen.
 


Gophers_4life said:
"Analytics" only matter in as much as the public/bettors also know them.
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That's the whole point. Both Books/Draft Kings have analytics on potential outcomes as well as bettors.

Gophers_4life said:
They're setting them like that because they think that fewer bettors think the Vikings will win.
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Setting/moving the lines like that is what gets the handle closer to the same.
 


Gophers_4life said:
Unless you think the book itself is trying to convince bettors to bet a certain way? That's the only possible thing left where what you're saying can make any sense.


If there are 15 bettors, and 5 of them are determined to bet for the Vikings and 10 of them are determined to bet for the Lions, then that's that. It doesn't actually matter what the book thinks will happen.
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YES, bolded is exactly what I was trying to convey!

The book doesn't want 2/3rd of the handle on the Lions on the NFC North. They want 25% (or as close as they can get), with roughly equal amounts on the Vikings, Bears, & Packers. That's how they win no matter what.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Books don't place bets themselves??
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In some circumstances sure, but the houses predominant goal as the middle man is to get equal action on both sides and take the roughly 10% rake on straight bets or set the cumulative odds so they profit no matter the outcome.
 



Gophers_4life said:
Risk minimization has literally only to do with what the bettors think.

Unless you think the book itself is trying to convince bettors to bet a certain way? That's the only possible thing left where what you're saying can make any sense.


If there are 15 bettors, and 5 of them are determined to bet for the Vikings and 10 of them are determined to bet for the Lions, then that's that. It doesn't actually matter what the book thinks will happen.
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Ope3 said:
In some circumstances sure, but the houses predominant goal as the middle man is to get equal action on both sides and take the roughly 10% rake on straight bets or set the cumulative odds so they profit no matter the outcome.
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You guys are generally saying the same thing.....yet arguing the semantics.
 

Ope3 said:
YES, bolded is exactly what I was trying to convey!

The book doesn't want 2/3rd of the handle on the Lions on the NFC North. They want 25% (or as close as they can get), with roughly equal amounts on the Vikings, Bears, & Packers. That's how they win no matter what.
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That's fine.

The ability to somewhat convince a bettor doesn't actually mean they think that team will win.
 





Gophers_4life said:
That's fine.

The ability to somewhat convince a bettor doesn't actually mean they think that team will win.
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As a generic statement, yes that can be true (and perhaps not rare). Agreed.

Strictly in terms of the Lions (+130) vs Vikings (+250) to win the NFC North, it's currently not possible. It's far too great of a gap.

If it was closer say, +180 vs +200, then I wouldn't have even brought it up to begin with. Too ambiguous of a margin.

Peace out.
 

on Cook - yes, it would have been nice to get something for him - but every other team in the NFL knew - or at least expected - that the Vikes were not keeping Cook. so why give up any value for him when there was a good chance he would be available on the open market?

it seems pretty clear that the off-season plan was to accomplish two goals - get younger and free up cap space. hence the departures of Thielen, Kendricks, Z'Darius, and now Cook.

there seems to be a plan. whether that plan works out in the long run remains to be seen.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
on Cook - yes, it would have been nice to get something for him - but every other team in the NFL knew - or at least expected - that the Vikes were not keeping Cook. so why give up any value for him when there was a good chance he would be available on the open market?

it seems pretty clear that the off-season plan was to accomplish two goals - get younger and free up cap space. hence the departures of Thielen, Kendricks, Z'Darius, and now Cook.

there seems to be a plan. whether that plan works out in the long run remains to be seen.
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I guess the only positive for a team trading for him would have been you've guaranteed he comes to your team. Where as on the open market he has the chance to go multiple locations.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
Nobody wanted that contract, and clearly after shopping around, Cook is probably finding out that his market isn't what he expected.
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Yup...maybe a 7th Round Pick from a team that wanted to ensure they got him but even that's a stretch having to eat that contract.

MIA has been mentioned a ton for Dalvin but I think CIN would be a great fit in their offense. With Mixon's legal issues and Perine signing in DEN, Cook would be a smart addition IMO.
 


GophersInIowa said:
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I never got all the Spielman hate. Just dumb. He had the Vikings relevant almost every year he was calling the shots.

He drafted Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, and pretty much the entire starting Vikings OL right now, which is one of the better ones in the league. And then he spun Stefon Diggs into Justin Jefferson.

I'm happy with the new regime and I think they'll do good things in MSP, but I just never understood the hate Spielman got from the Vikings fans couch-GMs. Somehow the average weekend fan thinks they know infinitely more than the front office folks...
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
I never got all the Spielman hate. Just dumb. He had the Vikings relevant almost every year he was calling the shots.

He drafted Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, and pretty much the entire starting Vikings OL right now, which is one of the better ones in the league. And then he spun Stefon Diggs into Justin Jefferson.

I'm happy with the new regime and I think they'll do good things in MSP, but I just never understood the hate Spielman got from the Vikings fans couch-GMs. Somehow the average weekend fan thinks they know infinitely more than the front office folks...
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I was a Spielman fan for quite a while. I think his track record of drafting was generally pretty good, and he had a number of good FA signings. His biggest failure was at QB. He was the GM for 10 drafts, and the only QB's he drafted were Touchdown Teddy and Kellen Mond. The second biggest issue (IMO) was partially the Vikings organization's fault, and that was the fact that Spielman was seemingly being evaluated on a yearly basis the last few years, which led to many "win now" moves that they are now paying for. Add in the abhorrent defensive drafting over the past numerous years, and his fate was sealed. He did a good job for the first 2/3 of his tenure as GM, but it was more than time to go. So while I don't really have "Spielman hate", he also had no business keeping his job.

Here are the defensive players drafted in his last 3 drafts in rounds 4 or higher:

2021: Chazz Surratt (3), Patrick Jones (3), Cam Bynum (4), Janarius Robinson (4)
2020: Jeff Gladney (2), Cam Dantzler (3), DJ Wonnum (4)
2019: None (!)
 
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forever a gopher said:
I was a Spielman fan for quite a while. I think his track record of drafting was generally pretty good, and he had a number of good FA signings. His biggest failure was at QB. He was the GM for 10 drafts, and the only QB's he drafted were Touchdown Teddy and Kellen Mond. The second biggest issue (IMO) was partially the Vikings organization's fault, and that was the fact that Spielman was seemingly being evaluated on a yearly basis the last few years, which led to many "win now" moves that they are now paying for. Add in the abhorrent defensive drafting over the past numerous years, and his fate was sealed. He did a good job for the first 2/3 of his tenure as GM, but it was more than time to go. So while I don't really have "Spielman hate", he also had no business keeping his job.

Here are the defensive players drafted in his last 3 drafts in rounds 4 or higher:

2021: Chazz Surratt (3), Patrick Jones (3), Cam Bynum (4), Janarius Robinson (4)
2020: Jeff Gladney (2), Cam Dantzler (3), DJ Wonnum (4)
2019: None (!)
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who drafted Ponder?
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
who drafted Ponder?
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Rick was so condescending in interviews that it is hard to parse out who he really is. But actions speak louder and he seems to be a good person. Just that those interviews where he spoke like everyone was beneath him in all ways are so tough to get passed.
 

I was asking Queens to trade him two years ago for a quality C or RG. No one listened.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
who drafted Ponder?
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The triangle of authority (good grief, remember that??) Spielman wasn't the GM at that point. He was the Director of Player Personnel or some sort of title like that, IIRC. Speilman became the GM the year after Ponder was drafted. He most certainly had a heavy hand in that one, so you can pretty safely put Ponder on his credits/debits list if you'd prefer. Not exactly a ringing endorsement to his tenure.
 

forever a gopher said:
I was a Spielman fan for quite a while. I think his track record of drafting was generally pretty good, and he had a number of good FA signings. His biggest failure was at QB. He was the GM for 10 drafts, and the only QB's he drafted were Touchdown Teddy and Kellen Mond. The second biggest issue (IMO) was partially the Vikings organization's fault, and that was the fact that Spielman was seemingly being evaluated on a yearly basis the last few years, which led to many "win now" moves that they are now paying for. Add in the abhorrent defensive drafting over the past numerous years, and his fate was sealed. He did a good job for the first 2/3 of his tenure as GM, but it was more than time to go. So while I don't really have "Spielman hate", he also had no business keeping his job.

Here are the defensive players drafted in his last 3 drafts in rounds 4 or higher:

2021: Chazz Surratt (3), Patrick Jones (3), Cam Bynum (4), Janarius Robinson (4)
2020: Jeff Gladney (2), Cam Dantzler (3), DJ Wonnum (4)
2019: None (!)
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You can go back 8 years with drafting defensive players. The best one he picked was Trae Waynes. Trae Friggin Waynes
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
I never got all the Spielman hate. Just dumb. He had the Vikings relevant almost every year he was calling the shots.

He drafted Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, and pretty much the entire starting Vikings OL right now, which is one of the better ones in the league. And then he spun Stefon Diggs into Justin Jefferson.

I'm happy with the new regime and I think they'll do good things in MSP, but I just never understood the hate Spielman got from the Vikings fans couch-GMs. Somehow the average weekend fan thinks they know infinitely more than the front office folks...
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It wasn't hate from most, just time to move on. He should have been let go at least a year earlier. Same for Zimmer.
 

forever a gopher said:
The triangle of authority (good grief, remember that??) Spielman wasn't the GM at that point. He was the Director of Player Personnel or some sort of title like that, IIRC. Speilman became the GM the year after Ponder was drafted. He most certainly had a heavy hand in that one, so you can pretty safely put Ponder on his credits/debits list if you'd prefer. Not exactly a ringing endorsement to his tenure.
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I believe your timeline is off. The triangle was long gone by then. Ponder is all on Spielman.
 

howeda7 said:
I believe your timeline is off. The triangle was long gone by then. Ponder is all on Spielman.
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It's a bit foggy who ultimately held the power during the "triangle years". Spielman probably had the most, but he was not the only voice. Childress was a self-professed "offensive genius", so I wouldn't put it past him to claim he was awesome at picking offensive players. Ponder was drafted in 2011, a year before Spielman was given the title of GM in 2012. However, the Vikings didn't use that title prior to that, so maybe it's semantics.

Capture66.JPG
 

forever a gopher said:
I was a Spielman fan for quite a while. I think his track record of drafting was generally pretty good, and he had a number of good FA signings. His biggest failure was at QB. He was the GM for 10 drafts, and the only QB's he drafted were Touchdown Teddy and Kellen Mond. The second biggest issue (IMO) was partially the Vikings organization's fault, and that was the fact that Spielman was seemingly being evaluated on a yearly basis the last few years, which led to many "win now" moves that they are now paying for. Add in the abhorrent defensive drafting over the past numerous years, and his fate was sealed. He did a good job for the first 2/3 of his tenure as GM, but it was more than time to go. So while I don't really have "Spielman hate", he also had no business keeping his job.

Here are the defensive players drafted in his last 3 drafts in rounds 4 or higher:

2021: Chazz Surratt (3), Patrick Jones (3), Cam Bynum (4), Janarius Robinson (4)
2020: Jeff Gladney (2), Cam Dantzler (3), DJ Wonnum (4)
2019: None (!)
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Gladney could have been a star here, we'll never know. Can't be held against Spiel.

Wonnum still has this year to prove himself. I think it's a make or break year. If Hunter does get traded (not saying I think that's likely, I have no idea) then he really has a chance.
 


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