All Things 2023 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

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Per Shama:

Kirk Cousins is signed only through the coming season and the presumption is Vikings management will let things play out to decide about future interest in the 34-year-old quarterback. But a former pro football authority isn’t so sure and thinks it’s “50-50” an extension could be agreed to between now and the team’s first regular season game September 10 in Minneapolis.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened before the season since they didn’t draft anybody high and he’s still to me a top 10 to 12 quarterback in the league,” said the ex-NFL team executive who spoke to Sports Headliners on condition of anonymity.

The Vikings drafted Brigham Young QB Jaren Hall in the fifth-round last month. How he will develop is unknown, but odds are that even in a best-case scenario he won’t be ready to succeed Cousins in 2024.

Cousins earns $35 million this year before pending free agency in 2024. A one- or two-year extension is likely to pay him $40 to $45 million annually.


Skol Vikes!!
 

Gophers_4life said:
Road trip for an NFL game??

Unless you drive a painted RV out there and just tailgate and watch from the lot, then it means you're retired and/or rich.
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I think I lot of middle class Vikes fans can certainly afford a road trip to Chicago or Green Bay which are easy driving distance.

Also the game against the Las Vegas Raiders this year falls in this window and I expect several thousand of not necessary wealthy Vikings fans to make that trip without breaking the bank. Now on just 28 days notice, they game might be moved up 3 days potentially totally wreaking havoc on travel plans (changing work schedule, flights, hotels etc).
 

Ope3 said:
I think I lot of middle class Vikes fans can certainly afford a road trip to Chicago or Green Bay which are easy driving distance.

Also the game against the Las Vegas Raiders this year falls in this window and I expect several thousand of not necessary wealthy Vikings fans to make that trip without breaking the bank. Now on just 28 days notice, they game might be moved up 3 days potentially totally wreaking havoc on travel plans (changing work schedule, flights, hotels etc).
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There might be pressure on the NFL not to flex Vegas home games for that very reason.

Edit: Turns on the Vikings game is exempt at the least:

Only one Vikings game — Week 16 vs. the Lions on Christmas Eve at U.S. Bank Stadium — is eligible to be moved up in the schedule (the Vikings can't play another road Thursday night game since they travel to Philadelphia in Week 2). The Saints and Rams are the current Thursday night matchup on Week 16.

www.startribune.com

NFL teams approve Thursday night flex scheduling at league meetings in Eagan

The Packers were also awarded the 2025 NFL draft. Will the event ever come to Minnesota? The Vikings "have expressed interest," NFL exec Peter O'Reilly said.
www.startribune.com www.startribune.com
 

howeda7 said:
There might be pressure on the NFL not to flex Vegas home games for that very reason.

Edit: Turns on the Vikings game is exempt at the least:

Only one Vikings game — Week 16 vs. the Lions on Christmas Eve at U.S. Bank Stadium — is eligible to be moved up in the schedule (the Vikings can't play another road Thursday night game since they travel to Philadelphia in Week 2). The Saints and Rams are the current Thursday night matchup on Week 16.

www.startribune.com

NFL teams approve Thursday night flex scheduling at league meetings in Eagan

The Packers were also awarded the 2025 NFL draft. Will the event ever come to Minnesota? The Vikings "have expressed interest," NFL exec Peter O'Reilly said.
www.startribune.com www.startribune.com
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That makes sense to at least not force teams to have multiple Road Thursday games.
 



Per Shama:

There’s prevailing skepticism about the Vikings for 2023 after they set an NFL record by winning 11 one-score games last season. But a former NFL team executive told Sports Headliners he believes the Vikings may approach their 13-4 regular season record from 2022 when they were NFC North Division champions.

The authority, who spoke on condition of anonymity, looks at the 2023 schedule and sees five playoff teams facing Minnesota in the first seven games. The Vikings must play the 2023 Super Bowl teams, the Chiefs and Eagles, plus the Bucs, Chargers and 49ers between September 14 and October 23.

“If they get through the first half of the season 5-3, then I think they’re in really good position to win 11 or 12 games, and repeat as division champs,” the source said.

Except for the game against the Eagles, the Vikings face those playoff teams in Minneapolis. In addition to the playoff clubs, Minnesota’s first eight opponents include road games at the Panthers, Bears and Packers.

The Vikings will play five primetime matchups, starting with the second game of the season against the Eagles on a Thursday night, September 14. Minnesota also plays two Monday night games at home, October 23 and November 27, against the 49ers and Bears respectively. Sunday night games have the Vikings at the Broncos November 19 and at home December 31 with the Packers. “That tells me the league office still thinks the Vikings are the top dog in the NFC North,” the NFL insider said about the primetime schedule.

The Lions are a betting favorite to be NFC North Division champions and dethrone the Vikings. Detroit improved late last season, winning five of its last six games on its way to 9-8 record. The Vikings and Lions won’t play each other until Sunday, December 24 and then on a date to be determined in the last week of the season. They place twice in the last three weeks of the season.

In addition to their annual Thanksgiving game, the Lions have four primetime games including the NFL season opener against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs on the road Thursday, September 7. It’s a surprising matchup to the source and a game where the Lions figure to be double-digit underdogs. “I thought the league blew it on that one,” the source said while suggesting an Eagles-Chiefs showcase made a lot of sense.


Go Gophers!!
 

Dump Cook's ass already. Enough. He's not a Viking anymore. Thank you for the great years, good luck at your next club.

Need the money to sign Jefferson.


It's all a done deal. Just do the damn thing. Stop dicking around trying to get 1.3% better offer.
 

BleedGopher said:
The Lions are a betting favorite to be NFC North Division champions and dethrone the Vikings.
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Setting someone up unrealistically, to give yourself a story to write about when they fail to meet the unrealistic expectations.

American common practice as old as the media.
 




Ope3 said:
ESPN.com front page article on the Purple, suggesting a step backwards for the team (and Giants).

www.espn.com

Can the Giants and Vikings keep momentum in 2023? We looked at 10 similar situations -- and five red flags

The Giants and Vikings had success last season after offensive-minded coach hires. But what's next for Brian Daboll, Kevin O'Connell and their teams?
www.espn.com www.espn.com

I would put it in the "no duh" category but they do have lots of stuff to support it.
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A very predictable step back is likely this year, just based on the number of one-score games alone. The previous year, the Raiders slipped into the playoffs with an inordinate number of one-score game wins, like the Vikings with an absolutely abysmal defense, and everyone threw their TV sets at McDaniels when the Raiders regressed to the norm last season. No shit...
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
A very predictable step back is likely this year, just based on the number of one-score games alone. The previous year, the Raiders slipped into the playoffs with an inordinate number of one-score game wins, like the Vikings with an absolutely abysmal defense, and everyone threw their TV sets at McDaniels when the Raiders regressed to the norm last season. No shit...
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I'm not really going out on a limb here but it's really going to come down to the defense. If they can improve enough to at least be ok/average, we could win 11-12 games. If they're really bad again, it might be more like 8-9. The offense will win some games on their own, it's just a matter of it the defense can make a few stops at crunch time or not.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Setting someone up unrealistically, to give yourself a story to write about when they fail to meet the unrealistic expectations.

American common practice as old as the media.
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The media might do that but Sports Books/Vegas don't give a rip. They only care about making moola.

The Lions (+130) are the favorite to Win the NFC North per DraftKings, something I have been touting since mid-December. Rest of the old Black and Blue Division:

Vikings +250
Bears +400
Packers +500
 

Ope3 said:
The media might do that but Sports Books/Vegas don't give a rip. They only care about making moola.
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Betting odds are one thing, and one thing only: what they think bettors think.

Nothing more.

They don't actually believe the Lions will win. They just think setting the odds like that will get them the most profit from bets.

You know this
 



Gophers_4life said:
Betting odds are one thing, and one thing only: what they think bettors think.

Nothing more.

They don't actually believe the Lions will win. They just think setting the odds like that will get them the most profit from bets.

You know this
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I specifically said in the post you are responding to "They only care about making the most moola", so yeah of course "I know" it's about the Book making the most profit. You repeated what I stated.

My point was it's not a media narrative of building up the Lions to set up a fall. There's genuine public belief in the Lions in 2023, hence they are the betting favorite.

Additionally, I really do think the Books believe in them too. If they didn't, they would increase the odds (closer to the Vikings) to generate more action.

If the sharks start thinking Vikes a good value, the odds will drop or the book takes a beating. That obvious Gambling 101 stuff.
 


Ope3 said:
Additionally, I really do think the Books believe in them too. If they didn't, they would increase the odds (closer to the Vikings) to generate more action.
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Nope.

It's purely what they think suckers will place bets on. Correlates to nothing more than that.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Nope.

It's purely what they think suckers will place bets on. Correlates to nothing more than that.
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That's completely illogical. The books are paying nearly double (92% more) for action on the Vikings compared to the Lions.

You think that enticement would be made if they really thought the Vikings had a more favorable chance to win the division than the Lions? That would be utterly insane.
 

Ope3 said:
That's completely illogical. The books are paying nearly double (92%) for action on the Vikings compared to the Lions.

You think that enticement would be made if they really thought the Vikings had a more favorable chance to win the division than the Lions? That would be utterly insane.
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You're too smart for this. Come on man.

What bettors think and what the book (experts/"sharks"/"sharps" whatever) think, are completely different and independent.


What they (the book) thinks is irrelevant. They know not as many bettors are going to bet on the Vikings to win it.
 

Gophers_4life said:
You're too smart for this. Come on man.

What bettors think and what the book (experts/"sharks"/"sharps" whatever) think, are completely different and independent.


What they (the book) thinks is irrelevant. They know not as many bettors are going to bet on the Vikings to win it.
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You are talking yourself into circles and losing. Experts & sharks are bettors. If the books do not set the action accordingly, they get hammered.

Not as many bettors are going to bet on the Vikings because they are not viewed as being as good as the Lions, hence the higher payout. They make money by getting equal action on all the teams.
 


Ope3 said:
Not as many bettors are going to bet on the Vikings because they are not viewed as being as good as the Lions, hence the higher payout.
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Exactly what I said.

Just because the public is wrong, doesn’t prove that that’s what the book personally thinks.

Ope3 said:
They make money by getting equal action on all the teams.
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Not true.

If everyone bets money on the Lions and none on the Vikings, and the Vikings win, then book just maximized profit.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Not true.

If everyone bets money on the Lions and none on the Vikings, and the Vikings win, then book just maximized profit.
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You are not getting it. The goal of every sports book is to get roughly the same action on all options. That's how they consistently make a profit. They do not want heavy action on one side or the other. Minimizing their risk is their entire goal.

Opening line is set on their analytics and then moves based on public response, generally not dramatically unless new information comes to light.

It's pretty basic.
 

as others have said, a lot of it hinges on the defense. new scheme - new personnel. If the defense is better than last year, the offense doesn't need to carry the team by itself.

having said that, the offense also has room for improvement. if they were better in the first half, they wouldn't need to try and pull off as many 4th-quarter comebacks.

so, I could see scenarios where the Vikes are better this year. but given the schedule. they could very well play better and not win as many games.
 




Ope3 said:
The goal of every sports book is to get roughly the same action on all options. That's how they consistently make a profit. They do not want heavy action on one side or the other. Minimizing their risk is their entire goal.
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Agree that's how you minimize risk.

You're proving my point, again.

They're only setting the line like that because they think bettors think the Lions will win.
 




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