Ogee Ogilthorpe
Tattooed Millionaire
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OK - the argument, as I understand it, for drafting a rookie QB is that you get them under a rookie pay scale for 4 or 5 years, depending on the contract. that, in turn, means theoretically that the team has more money available to sign other players and put together the best possible team. once the rookie QB goes off the rookie pay scale, that's when you run into cap issues.
but - If you are paying a veteran QB like Cousins a market-rate salary for 2 or three years, you essentially lose the advantage of a rookie pay-scale QB for those 2 or 3 years, leaving only 1 or two years to capitalize on the benefit of a lower salary QB.
hence the idea that, if you draft a rookie like Penix - you do not sign Cousins to a market-rate deal. you go out and sign a lower-cost veteran to be a bridge QB for one year as an insurance policy. an extra $20-million in cap space could mean that you re-sign one or two veterans players who can help the team win.
I am NOT saying Cousins is a bad QB.
I AM saying that teams have to make choices, and I would rather pay a rookie QB and re-sign other players as opposed to having Cousins eat up $40-million+ of the salary cap.
You're not wrong on a lot of this, but the real question when discussing "rookie QBs" is just how high you have to draft them. Take a quick look at who's starting in the NFL in Weeks 17 and 18 for some of these teams, many of them in playoff contention.
- Steelers. Mason Rudolph. (later round pick)
- Colts. Gardner Minshew. (later round pick)
- Vikings. Nick Mullens. (even if it were Cousins, he was a 4th rounder)
- Patriots. Zappe
- Falcons. Heinecke/Ridder
- Jets. Simian?
- Saints. Derek Carr. (4th round?)
- 49ers. Brock Purdy
- Seahawks. Geno Smith/Drew Lock
- Cowboys. Dak Prescott (4th round)
- WFT. Sam Howell (5th round
- Broncos. Jarrett Stidham (late round)
- Raiders Aidan O'Connell
- Eagles. Jalen Hurts (2nd round)
- Bengals. Jake Browning (Vikings draft pick!)
And then look at how many 1st Round Picks are staying home for the playoffs or fighting for their playoff lives
- Steelers and Pickett
- Texans and CJ Stroud (although obviously Stroud has been exceptionally good)
- Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield
- Panthers and Bryce Young
- Patriots and Mac Jones
- Jets and Zach Wilson
- Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence
- Cardinals and Kyler Murray. (Murray obviously missed half season but they'd still be out)
- Giants and Daniel Jones
- Bears and Justin Fields
- Packers and Jordan Love
- Chargers and Justin Herbert. (Herbert is hurt, but they were almost certainly not making the playoffs)
So do you really, REALLY have to "tank" to try to get a pick in the top 10-12 picks or ABSOLUTELY have to use your coveted 1st Round Pick on a QB?
It's all about your draft board and how much you LOVE the QBs on it. By all means, if the Vikings are drafting at 12 and there's a QB there that they had a Top 5 or so grade on them? Absolutely
But if you're picking a QB with your 1st round pick, you better damn well LOVE, I mean LOVE, that player and how they fit your scheme, how they fit your roster, and what their mental makeup is.