Ope3
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This isn't life of death. It's more important than that.
I think some crusty old football coach said that.
All Things 2023 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread
- Thread starter Ope3
- Start date
I think some crusty old football coach said that.
Only twins hitters meeting or exceeding expectations are Kiriloff and Jeffers. And both with a small sample size. Could possibly say Taylor, Castro, and Gallo are meeting expectations, not sure. Everyone else is disappointing.
No wonder that in 40% of our games we've scored two runs or less. 11 out of our last 17 games we have scored two runs or less.
We are on the verge of blowing a great opportunity, that's what is frustrating.
Our pitching staff is rocking the 2nd best ERA in the AL and we play in the worst division in the history of mankind, yet somehow our hitting is so bad we're blowing it.
No wonder that in 40% of our games we've scored two runs or less. 11 out of our last 17 games we have scored two runs or less.
We are on the verge of blowing a great opportunity, that's what is frustrating.
Our pitching staff is rocking the 2nd best ERA in the AL and we play in the worst division in the history of mankind, yet somehow our hitting is so bad we're blowing it.
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Gopher_In_NYC
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Amen brother
I have to admit, someone saying it's just a game, and then lecturing others on the game, is funny as hell to me.
Carry on!
Breakin' The Plane
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This is how you're supposed to watch sports! I've developed a rock-solid 4-point plan.
I'm not mad this team is pissing away a chance to run away with the division. I find most of it comical, not angering. They can't develop their own pitching, so trade, trade, trade to fill holes. They spent a massive amount of money on a gimpy cheater that not one, but two other teams said, "Nevermind" to. They tried wrapping their former savior in bubble wrap to try and protect him, and he still got hurt anyway. People bitch about the local sports teams. This isn't a new phenomenon.
GophersInIowa
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What more than likely will happen is they’ll hang around or even stay in the lead in the division and be right around .500 most of the year. Maybe even win it but unlikely to do anything again in the playoffs unless things change significantly. They’re kinda in purgatory where there’ll probably be too many issues to make a big move but also still have a chance to get into the playoffs so can’t sell. They’d probably get a good return for Gray if things really go south quickly.
Gophers1992
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So if god told you to abandon your wife & kids, you would do that?
God wouldn't tell me that. But would do that for the Twins.
Gopher_In_NYC
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As previously mentioned, here is some in-depth information as The Kepler Krumbles -
Via The Athletic and Aaron Gleeman. I know everyone on here is wealthier than the Wilfs, but can’t you spare a couple of bucks a month to have access to unparalleled sports coverage - it's less than a brew at a bar, for Pete's Sake. Now that I've exonerated myself by pitching their product, here i the info -
MINNEAPOLIS — Changing of the guard in baseball is usually tricky, and often awkward. When a good young player is ready for the majors and a veteran player is blocking their path, things can get weird, optics be damned.
There are exceptions, of course. Once in a while, what’s coming is so obvious to everyone involved that plans are made well in advance, and a seamless transition can take place.
For instance, after the 2003 season, the Twins moved quickly to trade their 27-year-old starting catcher, A.J. Pierzynski, because they had 21-year-old Joe Mauer waiting to take over. Mauer now has his number retired at Target Field, and the trade is one of the greatest in Twins history, fleecing the Giants out of Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano (and Boof Bonser).
But it’s not always that smooth.
Making room for Justin Morneau as the starting first baseman in 2004 required trading fan favorite Doug Mientkiewicz in July. Handing center field to Aaron Hicks in 2013 was preceded the previous winter by trading Denard Span and Ben Revere. Miguel Sanó’s taking over at third base full time in 2017 led to Trevor Plouffe’s being released. You get the idea.
Sometimes the decisions are easy, like trading Pierzynski to clear room for Mauer. And sometimes injuries remove the need for a decision at all, pushing a young player into action in place of a sidelined veteran. But tough decisions sometimes need to be made, and teams are often hesitant to cast aside a longtime regular for the relative unknown of a good but unproven prospect.
That’s where the Twins find themselves with veteran Max Kepler and prospects Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.
This is Kepler’s eighth season as the Twins’ starting right fielder, a position he’s played more than anyone in team history but Tony Oliva and Tom Brunansky. However, he’s been an above-average hitter in just two of those eight years, the last of which was 2020. Since then, he’s been on the injured list six times and hit just .216/.307/.384 for a .691 OPS that’s 6 percent below league average.
Wallner, meanwhile, is a 25-year-old first-round pick and the reigning Twins minor-league player of the year. He’s smashed Double-A and Triple-A pitching, hitting a combined .282/.410/.546 with 33 homers and 116 walks in 161 games the past two years. And he’s more than held his own in brief stints with the Twins since September, hitting .263/.378/.434 in 29 games.
Most recently, Wallner was tasked with filling in for an injured Larnach, who was filling for an injured Kepler, and he reached base safely in each of his final eight plate appearances, going 6-for-6 with a homer and two walks. Yet when Kepler was deemed ready to come off the injured list Monday — without even going on a rehab assignment — Wallner was sent back to the minors.
Sending down Wallner was always the expected move to make room for Kepler’s return, but that didn’t make it any less awkward to demote a hot-hitting rookie for an unproductive veteran. Wallner took it in stride, going 8-for-15 with three homers in his first three post-demotion games. Kepler has gone 2-for-17 since returning, dropping his batting average to .198.
No aspect of this situation should be surprising to the Twins, who witnessed Kepler’s multiyear decline and knew Wallner and Larnach were major-league ready. It’s why the 30-year-old Kepler and his $8.5 million salary seemed like prime trade bait this offseason, and it’s why the Twins instead bringing him back despite younger, cheaper in-house options was a head-scratcher.
Twins officials insisted throughout the offseason that they could trade Kepler for actual value rather than merely as a salary dump, but clearly the offers they received weren’t to their standards. Regardless of whether the Twins overrated Kepler’s trade value or the other 29 teams collectively underrated him, the result was the same. They hung on to a declining asset.
Kepler is again not producing at the level of a starting right fielder and, worse, he’s blocking Wallner and Larnach from getting extended looks. Beyond that, even if the only Kepler trades available to the Twins this offseason were salary dumps for minimal returns, it’s not difficult to imagine ways in which that $8.5 million could have been better spent on a roster with plenty of weak spots.
One of those weak spots is center field, where Byron Buxton and his bad knee’s moving to designated hitter, and Nick Gordon’s fracturing his tibia, have pushed Michael A. Taylor into an everyday role for which he’s stretched. Kepler played lots of center field early in his career, and his lefty bat is a natural fit platooning with the righty Taylor while also clearing right field for Wallner or Larnach.
So why isn’t that happening? Because — and the Twins also knew this coming into the offseason — Kepler has expressed a strong preference against playing center field. His last start there came in August 2021, and since then the Twins have used nine starting center fielders while avoiding simply turning to Kepler at a spot where he’s proved to be a solid option previously.
Kepler remains an excellent defensive right fielder, and far better than Wallner or Larnach, but the average MLB right fielder has out-produced Kepler by 54 points of OPS during the past three seasons, including 76 points this year. His breakout 2019 campaign looks like an obvious outlier, book-ended by a 96 OPS+ in 419 games before and a 96 OPS+ in 315 games after.
One thing the Twins didn’t know for certain this winter was how much Kepler would benefit from new shift limitations, although research suggested the effect would be minimal. Kepler, like all left-handed pull hitters, was hurt by extreme shifts, but teams are still able to deploy less-dramatic shifts against him, and the low quality of his contact was always a much bigger issue anyway.
Kepler’s career batting average is just .231 despite a low strikeout rate because his .246 batting average on balls in play ranks dead last among all MLB hitters since 1990. His contact consistently produces poor results, not because of bad luck or shifts, but because Kepler hits so many popups, choppers and weak fly balls that are near-automatic outs. This year’s BABIP is a career-worst .193.
Wallner is far from a can’t-miss prospect. His bloated strikeout rate is a possible red flag and, at 6-feet-4 and 220 pounds, his outfield range is limited. But elite raw power and the ability to draw walks in bunches figure to make up for a low batting average, and the former college pitcher’s top-of-the-scale arm strength is a legit weapon defensively. He has substantial long-term upside.
Larnach is a year older than Wallner at 26, and the first-round pick has hit just .224/.316/.376 with 17 homers in 169 games for the Twins since a 2021 debut, but even that middling production equals a 94 OPS+ that is identical to Kepler’s mark over the same period. Larnach, like Wallner, is limited somewhat defensively by his bulky 6-4 frame, but his range and arm are decent.
Any offseason argument for maintaining maximum outfield depth with Kepler is no longer a priority. He’s hit .198 in a lineup that’s struggled for two months, Larnach is close to returning from the injured list, and Wallner is too good for Triple A. They’re ready now, or at least as ready as they’ll ever be, and at some point the Twins need to find out what they have, for the present and future.
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Relevant perspective in the comment section to an uninformed take that Kepler has no suitors -
This isn't really a "DFA" situation because they can't find a team that wants him. His plus glove and affordable contract (with options) would attract SOME interest. I suspect the bigger issue is the Twins front office has put value "x" on Kepler, and nobody appears willing to pay that. I'm guessing that is also what happened this winter, some teams might have called the Twins about Kepler, but weren't willing to offer the Twins what they wanted.
At some point the Twins are going to need to adjust how they value Max Kepler when shopping him. Especially now, seeing as you can't sell the idea that the shift is going to dramatically help Kepler at the plate, like you could this winter.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
I like that the Twins are loyal to their players, but there is a line you cannot cross in every relationship and Max crossed it last season - they had Larnach and Wallner to take over and they whiffed by not trading him last offseason IMO.
Via The Athletic and Aaron Gleeman. I know everyone on here is wealthier than the Wilfs, but can’t you spare a couple of bucks a month to have access to unparalleled sports coverage - it's less than a brew at a bar, for Pete's Sake. Now that I've exonerated myself by pitching their product, here i the info -
How long will Twins let Max Kepler block Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach?
MINNEAPOLIS — Changing of the guard in baseball is usually tricky, and often awkward. When a good young player is ready for the majors and a veteran player is blocking their path, things can get weird, optics be damned.
There are exceptions, of course. Once in a while, what’s coming is so obvious to everyone involved that plans are made well in advance, and a seamless transition can take place.
For instance, after the 2003 season, the Twins moved quickly to trade their 27-year-old starting catcher, A.J. Pierzynski, because they had 21-year-old Joe Mauer waiting to take over. Mauer now has his number retired at Target Field, and the trade is one of the greatest in Twins history, fleecing the Giants out of Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano (and Boof Bonser).
But it’s not always that smooth.
Making room for Justin Morneau as the starting first baseman in 2004 required trading fan favorite Doug Mientkiewicz in July. Handing center field to Aaron Hicks in 2013 was preceded the previous winter by trading Denard Span and Ben Revere. Miguel Sanó’s taking over at third base full time in 2017 led to Trevor Plouffe’s being released. You get the idea.
Sometimes the decisions are easy, like trading Pierzynski to clear room for Mauer. And sometimes injuries remove the need for a decision at all, pushing a young player into action in place of a sidelined veteran. But tough decisions sometimes need to be made, and teams are often hesitant to cast aside a longtime regular for the relative unknown of a good but unproven prospect.
That’s where the Twins find themselves with veteran Max Kepler and prospects Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.
This is Kepler’s eighth season as the Twins’ starting right fielder, a position he’s played more than anyone in team history but Tony Oliva and Tom Brunansky. However, he’s been an above-average hitter in just two of those eight years, the last of which was 2020. Since then, he’s been on the injured list six times and hit just .216/.307/.384 for a .691 OPS that’s 6 percent below league average.
Wallner, meanwhile, is a 25-year-old first-round pick and the reigning Twins minor-league player of the year. He’s smashed Double-A and Triple-A pitching, hitting a combined .282/.410/.546 with 33 homers and 116 walks in 161 games the past two years. And he’s more than held his own in brief stints with the Twins since September, hitting .263/.378/.434 in 29 games.
Most recently, Wallner was tasked with filling in for an injured Larnach, who was filling for an injured Kepler, and he reached base safely in each of his final eight plate appearances, going 6-for-6 with a homer and two walks. Yet when Kepler was deemed ready to come off the injured list Monday — without even going on a rehab assignment — Wallner was sent back to the minors.
Sending down Wallner was always the expected move to make room for Kepler’s return, but that didn’t make it any less awkward to demote a hot-hitting rookie for an unproductive veteran. Wallner took it in stride, going 8-for-15 with three homers in his first three post-demotion games. Kepler has gone 2-for-17 since returning, dropping his batting average to .198.
No aspect of this situation should be surprising to the Twins, who witnessed Kepler’s multiyear decline and knew Wallner and Larnach were major-league ready. It’s why the 30-year-old Kepler and his $8.5 million salary seemed like prime trade bait this offseason, and it’s why the Twins instead bringing him back despite younger, cheaper in-house options was a head-scratcher.
Twins officials insisted throughout the offseason that they could trade Kepler for actual value rather than merely as a salary dump, but clearly the offers they received weren’t to their standards. Regardless of whether the Twins overrated Kepler’s trade value or the other 29 teams collectively underrated him, the result was the same. They hung on to a declining asset.
Kepler is again not producing at the level of a starting right fielder and, worse, he’s blocking Wallner and Larnach from getting extended looks. Beyond that, even if the only Kepler trades available to the Twins this offseason were salary dumps for minimal returns, it’s not difficult to imagine ways in which that $8.5 million could have been better spent on a roster with plenty of weak spots.
One of those weak spots is center field, where Byron Buxton and his bad knee’s moving to designated hitter, and Nick Gordon’s fracturing his tibia, have pushed Michael A. Taylor into an everyday role for which he’s stretched. Kepler played lots of center field early in his career, and his lefty bat is a natural fit platooning with the righty Taylor while also clearing right field for Wallner or Larnach.
So why isn’t that happening? Because — and the Twins also knew this coming into the offseason — Kepler has expressed a strong preference against playing center field. His last start there came in August 2021, and since then the Twins have used nine starting center fielders while avoiding simply turning to Kepler at a spot where he’s proved to be a solid option previously.
Kepler remains an excellent defensive right fielder, and far better than Wallner or Larnach, but the average MLB right fielder has out-produced Kepler by 54 points of OPS during the past three seasons, including 76 points this year. His breakout 2019 campaign looks like an obvious outlier, book-ended by a 96 OPS+ in 419 games before and a 96 OPS+ in 315 games after.
One thing the Twins didn’t know for certain this winter was how much Kepler would benefit from new shift limitations, although research suggested the effect would be minimal. Kepler, like all left-handed pull hitters, was hurt by extreme shifts, but teams are still able to deploy less-dramatic shifts against him, and the low quality of his contact was always a much bigger issue anyway.
Kepler’s career batting average is just .231 despite a low strikeout rate because his .246 batting average on balls in play ranks dead last among all MLB hitters since 1990. His contact consistently produces poor results, not because of bad luck or shifts, but because Kepler hits so many popups, choppers and weak fly balls that are near-automatic outs. This year’s BABIP is a career-worst .193.
Wallner is far from a can’t-miss prospect. His bloated strikeout rate is a possible red flag and, at 6-feet-4 and 220 pounds, his outfield range is limited. But elite raw power and the ability to draw walks in bunches figure to make up for a low batting average, and the former college pitcher’s top-of-the-scale arm strength is a legit weapon defensively. He has substantial long-term upside.
Larnach is a year older than Wallner at 26, and the first-round pick has hit just .224/.316/.376 with 17 homers in 169 games for the Twins since a 2021 debut, but even that middling production equals a 94 OPS+ that is identical to Kepler’s mark over the same period. Larnach, like Wallner, is limited somewhat defensively by his bulky 6-4 frame, but his range and arm are decent.
Any offseason argument for maintaining maximum outfield depth with Kepler is no longer a priority. He’s hit .198 in a lineup that’s struggled for two months, Larnach is close to returning from the injured list, and Wallner is too good for Triple A. They’re ready now, or at least as ready as they’ll ever be, and at some point the Twins need to find out what they have, for the present and future.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Relevant perspective in the comment section to an uninformed take that Kepler has no suitors -
This isn't really a "DFA" situation because they can't find a team that wants him. His plus glove and affordable contract (with options) would attract SOME interest. I suspect the bigger issue is the Twins front office has put value "x" on Kepler, and nobody appears willing to pay that. I'm guessing that is also what happened this winter, some teams might have called the Twins about Kepler, but weren't willing to offer the Twins what they wanted.
At some point the Twins are going to need to adjust how they value Max Kepler when shopping him. Especially now, seeing as you can't sell the idea that the shift is going to dramatically help Kepler at the plate, like you could this winter.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
I like that the Twins are loyal to their players, but there is a line you cannot cross in every relationship and Max crossed it last season - they had Larnach and Wallner to take over and they whiffed by not trading him last offseason IMO.
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GophersInIowa
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Alrighty then...
MUgopher32
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LMAO
God forbid we let bat against a lefty.
HOw the hell is this organization supposed to develop if our youth are not allowed to hit same side pitching?? AK is literally our best on base guy/hitter right now. Hes an exceptional talent especially if the power develops more consistently. But we wont let him take some Abs vs lefties? At the very least even if he couldnt hit them, hes probably due to draw a walk or get HBP.
But yeah lets keep stunting growth and playing much more underqualified players. Working super well.
God forbid we let bat against a lefty.
HOw the hell is this organization supposed to develop if our youth are not allowed to hit same side pitching?? AK is literally our best on base guy/hitter right now. Hes an exceptional talent especially if the power develops more consistently. But we wont let him take some Abs vs lefties? At the very least even if he couldnt hit them, hes probably due to draw a walk or get HBP.
But yeah lets keep stunting growth and playing much more underqualified players. Working super well.
From the Parkinglot
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Might be the worse lineup of the year. Of course baseball is baseball so they will score 8 runs and lose because of the bullpen this time around not because of a lack of runs.
Unbelievable. I would like to see the twins forbid their players from doing off-season workouts. Spend the off-season resting the body. 30 yrs ago didn't see injuries like we see now across the league.
So Saints vss Blue Jays tonight. Wow
MUgopher32
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Also dont get me wrong. With current roster combined with his OBP having Solano bat leadoff(id maybe say he should be 2 behind castro the base stealer but its Rocco so whatever) is a good move.
Whats absolutely fucking hilarious though is that he only bats in the correct spot when we face a lefty. When we face righties, whom he wasnt even signed to hit against, he bats fucking cleanup.
This team is so goddamn backwards its unexplainable.
The Twins are a bridge to get to football. Damn, can we just get to football?
Breakin' The Plane
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That's part of it. It doesn't help that they apparently flat-out ignore a player's injury history when trying to acquire them.
)From the Parkinglot
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I would take the actually Saints line-up tonight vs this lineup.
MUgopher32
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0 runs through 4 lol
When was Thielbar even activated? So he re-aggravated the same injury?
If Sonny gives up more than one, game over.
MUgopher32
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Michael A!!!
Got more pop than most the team right now. Probably shouldnt bat behind everyone including Vazquez....
And about to give it all back immediately.
duck farts!
From the Parkinglot
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1st guess that taking Sonny out after 76 pitches and 5 innings is silly in game one of the series. Just has the potential to put too much stress on your bullpen for this game and the following games.