This post is part of the Twins' mailbag article on The Athletic (i am presenting the most salient ones which have garnered the most attention on here)
Thanks to Aaron Gleeman and a quick plug for The Athletic - easy the best $1 I spend a month - yes a sawbuck. Their reporting is unparcelled IMO, not only the team specific stuff, but the league wide coverage. For example, they just had a unvarnished review of Miranda's first year in the bigs - happy anniversary Jose! - his OPs+ 109, but he has a ways to go to get to ~130, where you ideally want a third sacker to be and take the next step forward with his D. He may stay there, end up at first/DH or trade bait.
Twins mailbag: Alex Kirilloff in the minors, Byron Buxton at DH and extension talk
One month of the 2023 season is in the books and the
Twins have played at a 95-win pace, going 17-12 to sit atop the American League Central. There have already been plenty of ups and downs, and last year’s injury problems haven’t been solved, but the rest of the division looks even weaker than expected and the Twins went 6-4 versus the
Yankees and
Astros, showing lots of fight against American League heavyweights.
Byron Buxton as the designated hitter every day is getting absurd. Can we get some answers on this? — Tony B.
Byron Buxton has been limited to designated hitter duties because his surgically repaired right knee remains an issue and the Twins want his bat in the lineup as much as possible, believing Gold Glove-winning offseason addition
Michael A. Taylor can hold down center field in the meantime. They
laid out their plan for Buxton late in spring training and have stuck with it through one month.
And guess what? It’s worked.
Buxton has played 90 percent of the Twins’ games, compared to 57 percent last season and 43 percent over the past five years combined. He has the third-most plate appearances on the team, batting .258/.324/.557 with seven homers and seven doubles/triples to out-produce the average DH by 151 points of OPS. He also leads Twins hitters in Win Probability Added, stepping up in clutch spots.
Taylor has also done a solid job as the everyday center fielder, on both sides of the ball. He’s played quality defense while adding
some much-needed speed and small-ball tools, and he’s smacked four homers on the way to a 100 OPS+ at the bottom of the lineup. Oh, and the Twins are in first place, including playing at a 110-win pace with Buxton in the starting lineup.
I’m of the belief that the Twins will eventually want to make at least some room at DH for young, bat-first players like
Alex Kirilloff,
Edouard Julien and
Matt Wallner, so using Buxton strictly at DH could be tricky long-term, but for now it’s been anything but “absurd.” Buxton has been healthy and hugely productive, Taylor has been a two-way asset and they’re winning.
Will the Twins try to extend Michael A. Taylor’s contract for another season or two? — Scott A.
Regardless of what their plan is for Buxton’s future as a center fielder, it’s clear the Twins need another starting-caliber center fielder on the roster. That’s why they went out and traded for Taylor, who was the Royals’ primary center fielder the previous two seasons. And it’s why keeping the 32-year-old impending free agent around past this season could make sense.
Taylor is an elite defender with a competent bottom-of-the-lineup bat, and he’s a well-liked, respected veteran with a high baseball IQ. He’s also being paid just $4.5 million as part of a two-year, $9 million extension signed with
Kansas City in late 2021, so if the Twins want to retain Taylor for another season or two the price tag should be reasonable.
Another option would be to turn to a high-minors prospect like
Royce Lewis or
Austin Martin as Buxton’s center-field sidekick beginning in 2024, which would be even cheaper than Taylor and carry far more upside. Lewis and Martin both have the speed to thrive in center field, but they’re also both currently sidelined by injuries, and the Twins seem inclined to keep Lewis in the infield.
Why is Alex Kirilloff still in the minors? — David P.
Continuing to invest everyday playing time in the 30-year-old Kepler while 25-year-olds Kirilloff and Wallner clobber Triple-A pitching could be questioned, but those wheels were set in motion when the Twins opted not to trade Kepler. They made that decision knowing one or both of Kirilloff and Wallner would probably look big-league-ready by now, and Kepler has been productive.
Kirilloff is very obviously way too good for Triple-A, with his current stint in St. Paul pushing his career line there to .362/.467/.687 with 15 homers in 44 games. But the Twins are understandably being overly cautious with Kirilloff following back-to-back season-ending wrist surgeries, giving him lots of days off to
work him back slowly.
With left-handed hitters Kepler,
Trevor Larnach and
Joey Gallo atop the left field, right field and first base depth chart, and the DH spot filled by Buxton, it’s not obvious where Kirilloff would get regular at-bats. It’s somewhat similar to the situation that led to
Bailey Ober beginning this season in the Triple-A rotation despite clearly being an
MLB-caliber starter.
Just as
Kenta Maeda’s injury opened the door for Ober to
rejoin their rotation before the end of April, it’s likely an injury to some other hitter will clear a path to playing time for Kirilloff eventually as long as he stays healthy in St. Paul. If instead everyone stays healthy for the foreseeable future, the Twins will need to revisit trading Kepler, weigh Kirilloff versus Larnach or play Buxton in center.
Everyone wants to see a healthy Kirilloff ripping line drives in the majors, most of all the Twins. It’s the how and when they’re still figuring out, and within that Kirilloff’s injury history is a big consideration.