All Things 2022-2023 Minnesota Twins Off-Season Thread

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From the Parkinglot said:
The problem I have is the twins went all the way out to $285 and 10 years. They had to know that was not going to get it done, so why sit around and wait for the decision you knew was coming. They should have made the offer and moved on. Ultimately they went way into deep water for them and were still woefully short on dollars and years.

The Twins let Borris and Correa dictate their off season plan and now have to scramble to pick up the pieces. I am not sure over paying for Swanson is worth it as even his career year last year is not great and less than Correa.
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Incredibly inept/naive by Falvey. $300 million was the bare minimum. If they weren't offering that and really thought they had a shot, they're fools.
 

Ope3 said:
I'm not sure they are really in scramble mode. I am resigned to thinking even if they had signed Correa they were not going to contend for the AL Central in 2023.
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The division will be as easy to win in 2023 as it was in 2022 though. The White Sox are re-setting. The Guardians still aren't spending $$. To not even try is pathetic.
 

howeda7 said:
His stuff is nasty. They had many teams trying to trade for him. Believe me.
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I think they should waive the five years after retirement rule and just induct him in the HOF now.
 


howeda7 said:
The division will be as easy to win in 2023 as it was in 2022 though. The White Sox are re-setting. The Guardians still aren't spending $$. To not even try is pathetic.
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The AL Central wasn't easy to win in 2022 though.

The Twins finished 3rd with Correa. The Guards were no joke, winning 92 games and the Twins finished 14 back, 6 games under .500. They were 3 back of the White Sox.

In mid-June I thought Cleveland was pretenders. I saw them play at Target Field in an afternoon game the Twins took 1-0. The Guards line-up outside the top 3 were at .200 or below. Hitting got a little better and their young pitching staff proved me wrong. I think they are solid, whether they spend or not. In my opinion, not spending is justified as their fans stayed away in droves despite winning the Division.

Additionally, the Wild Card is going to be harder for any AL Central Team with the more balanced schedule.
 


This is who the Twins were negotiating with:

After negotiating massive new contracts for ace pitcher Max Scherzer and shortstop Corey Seager, super-agent Scott Boras entered the 2022 season with a client roster featuring six of baseball’s nine highest salaries for the year. Zoom out a bit to consider total contract value, and Boras is the man behind five of the 13 largest active deals in the game, with star clients Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon in addition to Seager.

It should be no surprise, then, that Boras ranks as the most powerful agent in North American team sports, with $3.83 billion in active playing contracts under management, yielding up to $191 million in commissions based on the maximum 5% fee that MLB agents are allowed to charge. That breaks the record of $161 million in commissions that Boras set the last time Forbes published this list, in 2020.

It's all about pushing that number higher, setting new records, and making more money. Boras looks at GM's the way you or I look at a group of ants at a picnic. A nuisance waiting to be stepped on.
 

The other problem with missing Correa and letting Urshela go is the trades you made in the off season and during the season were to set you up to really compete in 2023. You traded away prospects for sort of 2022, but really for 2023.
 

Ope3 said:
The AL Central wasn't easy to win in 2022 though.

The Twins finished 3rd with Correa. The Guards were no joke, winning 92 games and the Twins finished 14 back, 6 games under .500. They were 3 back of the White Sox.

In mid-June I thought Cleveland was pretenders. I saw them play at Target Field in an afternoon game the Twins took 1-0. The Guards line-up outside the top 3 were at .200 or below. Hitting got a little better and their young pitching staff proved me wrong. I think they are solid, whether they spend or not. In my opinion, not spending is justified as their fans stayed away in droves despite winning the Division.

Additionally, the Wild Card is going to be harder for any AL Central Team with the more balanced schedule.
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True. But I don't think it's a given they win 90 again.
 

jamiche said:
The Twins goal has always been to be good or good enough. Their goal has never been to be great. The two World Series wins in the very, very distant past were sort of accidents. If they were determined to take a shot a greatness, they would have offered Correa $351M over ten years. The same money over a shorter term. I'll bet he would have taken it since he was supposedly happy here. Then they swallow hard and trade Arraez for front line pitching. Then they invest more money in the bullpen. Lewis is ready in July. You have the makings of a potentially great team at a payroll that a little above the MLB average.

Plus we have Pagan!
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The path to greatness for the Twins is always going to be internally. Until they can develop better within (especially pitching), it isn't going to matter that much what they do in free agency. I'm not saying they shouldn't go after big names but they're never going to be able to get enough of them to overcome bad development.

Development continues to be a big issue. We don't need them all to become superstars but we're not getting enough from our top prospects to this point.
 



howeda7 said:
True. But I don't think it's a given they win 90 again.
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Yes quite possible, especially with the more difficult schedule (as it will be for the Twins).

For the Twins to contend they need Cleveland to regress to the 85-86 level and somehow improve with 7-8 more wins. Would have been a tall order with Correa, and will be harder yet without him.
 

howeda7 said:
He will get a video board tribute (on the new improved video board) in June. No pre-game ceremony though. We still have some standards.
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I realize that we have standards. He was only here for one year though. Do we honor all players who were only here for one year and then bolt elsewhere? Personally, I leave it to the players who have some loyalty over a few years and produced.
 

GophersInIowa said:
The path to greatness for the Twins is always going to be internally. Until they can develop better within (especially pitching), it isn't going to matter that much what they do in free agency. I'm not saying they shouldn't go after big names but they're never going to be able to get enough of them to overcome bad development.

Development continues to be a big issue. We don't need them all to become superstars but we're not getting enough from our top prospects to this point.
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Agreed and then they need to lock em up early after they prove themselves in a couple of seasons as Cleveland did back in the day with Belle, Bagerga and the Alomar Br0s. If Ryan and Miranda prove themselves this year, sign them up for 5+ seasons At significant $$ regardless of how many years of team control are left. The ten+ year contracts are designed for the players security and advertising the costs over a longer window- don’t fight that war, fight one you can win and make smart trades & FA signings.

Disrupt the disruption!!!!!
 
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GophersInIowa said:
The path to greatness for the Twins is always going to be internally. Until they can develop better within (especially pitching), it isn't going to matter that much what they do in free agency. I'm not saying they shouldn't go after big names but they're never going to be able to get enough of them to overcome bad development.

Development continues to be a big issue. We don't need them all to become superstars but we're not getting enough from our top prospects to this point.
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Why can't they develop internally and go after big names? I read recently that the Pohlads are the eighth wealthiest owners in baseball. There's no law that says they have to cap payroll at $140M-$150M every year. The resources are available. The owners are choosing not to deploy them. Signing Correa was not a longshot. He had a good experience here and the team knew the price tag. Correa didn't say no to the Twins. The Twins said no to Correa.
 



jamiche said:
Why can't they develop internally and go after big names? I read recently that the Pohlads are the eighth wealthiest owners in baseball. There's no law that says they have to cap payroll at $140M-$150M every year. The resources are available. The owners are choosing not to deploy them. Signing Correa was not a longshot. He had a good experience here and the team knew the price tag. Correa didn't say no to the Twins. The Twins said no to Correa.
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It’s going to start internally is what I mean. If they can’t develop talent, they’re never going to get to the next level.
 

jamiche said:
Why can't they develop internally and go after big names? I read recently that the Pohlads are the eighth wealthiest owners in baseball. There's no law that says they have to cap payroll at $140M-$150M every year. The resources are available. The owners are choosing not to deploy them. Signing Correa was not a longshot. He had a good experience here and the team knew the price tag. Correa didn't say no to the Twins. The Twins said no to Correa.
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Twins pretended he was born here and said he never wanted to leave with that offer rather then him and his wife liked it.
 

jamiche said:
Why can't they develop internally and go after big names? I read recently that the Pohlads are the eighth wealthiest owners in baseball. There's no law that says they have to cap payroll at $140M-$150M every year. The resources are available. The owners are choosing not to deploy them. Signing Correa was not a longshot. He had a good experience here and the team knew the price tag. Correa didn't say no to the Twins. The Twins said no to Correa.
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Offering $280M was a good faith offer. I am totally fine they did not land him.
 




Ope3 said:
Offering $280M was a good faith offer. I am totally fine they did not land him.
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It's ok to be fine that they didn't sign him. However offering Correa $280M when you know the market is well above $300M is not a good faith offer.
 

Like it or not, the Pohlads are business people, and they have made it very clear that their policy is to run the Twins like a business - meaning that they look at projected revenues and determine what they can afford for expenses.

I will add that the Twins are one of the lowest teams in MLB in terms of local TV revenue. One ranking of clubs by local media revenues had the Twins in the bottom 5.

that doesn't mean they can't afford to have an MLB-average level payroll. it just means they are not going to say "bleep it, we're rich" and start spending $200-Million a year.

the real issue is how well or how smartly they spend their money. that's where the front-office mistakes really hurt - signing pitchers with injury problems, etc.

the Pohlads are not preventing the Twins from winning. that's on the front office and management for making bad decisions.
 


short ornery norwegian said:
Like it or not, the Pohlads are business people, and they have made it very clear that their policy is to run the Twins like a business - meaning that they look at projected revenues and determine what they can afford for expenses.

I will add that the Twins are one of the lowest teams in MLB in terms of local TV revenue. One ranking of clubs by local media revenues had the Twins in the bottom 5.

that doesn't mean they can't afford to have an MLB-average level payroll. it just means they are not going to say "bleep it, we're rich" and start spending $200-Million a year.

the real issue is how well or how smartly they spend their money. that's where the front-office mistakes really hurt - signing pitchers with injury problems, etc.

the Pohlads are not preventing the Twins from winning. that's on the front office and management for making bad decisions.
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The Pohlads are also real estate developers. Not all of their RE projects cash flow immediately, but pretty much all of them have made money, either through operations, reversion or both. It would be interesting if Joe P. announced a new payroll plan of $200M/year for 3-5 years to see how it would drive revenue. Obviously, he would need the right people in place on the management side making the right personnel decision.

Finally, Carl bought the Twins in 1984 for $27M. Today the franchise is worth $1.5B-$2B. That's running it like a business. You can run it like a business and try to win.
 

jamiche said:
The Pohlads are also real estate developers. Not all of their RE projects cash flow immediately, but pretty much all of them have made money, either through operations, reversion or both. It would be interesting if Joe P. announced a new payroll plan of $200M/year for 3-5 years to see how it would drive revenue. Obviously, he would need the right people in place on the management side making the right personnel decision.

Finally, Carl bought the Twins in 1984 for $27M. Today the franchise is worth $1.5B-$2B. That's running it like a business. You can run it like a business and try to win.
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This. Plus they either don't realize or don't care what a precarious position they and MLB more broadly are in with the public. (More likely the former). The average age of an MLB fan is old and getting older. Once people tune your team out, it's going to be very hard to get them back. And they are tuning out.

The attendance last year was brutal as were the TV ratings. After this inept face plant of an off-season will only make things worse. Attendance will be awful, the TV ratings will suck and they will then be trying to negotiate a new TV deal? Good luck with that. The Twins standing with the public is right around where it was when contraction happened. They don't seem to care.
 


howeda7 said:
This. Plus they either don't realize or don't care what a precarious position they and MLB more broadly are in with the public. (More likely the former). The average age of an MLB fan is old and getting older. Once people tune your team out, it's going to be very hard to get them back. And they are tuning out.

The attendance last year was brutal as were the TV ratings. After this inept face plant of an off-season will only make things worse. Attendance will be awful, the TV ratings will suck and they will then be trying to negotiate a new TV deal? Good luck with that. The Twins standing with the public is right around where it was when contraction happened. They don't seem to care.
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Ironically, the TV ratings are semi irrelevant. The networks (local and national) are dying for summer broadcast content. There are no other live sporting events other than golf and soccer between the NBA Finals and the start of the NFL regular season. MLB is the only one of the big four that has broadcast rights all to itself for three months of the year. That's why baseball gets such big TV deals.
 

GophersInIowa said:
It's a minor league deal. Every team bring these guys in. Many times they get cut in spring training. Almost no risk.
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That's correct. However, the Twins have a history of making these guys fifth starters and the fans have to suffer through 15-20 starts before the guy gets cut.
 

jamiche said:
That's correct. However, the Twins have a history of making these guys fifth starters and the fans have to suffer through 15-20 starts before the guy gets cut.
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He at best would be a long reliever. If he ends up starting any games, then the season is over already anyways because that would mean a lot of injuries.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Like it or not, the Pohlads are business people, and they have made it very clear that their policy is to run the Twins like a business - meaning that they look at projected revenues and determine what they can afford for expenses.

I will add that the Twins are one of the lowest teams in MLB in terms of local TV revenue. One ranking of clubs by local media revenues had the Twins in the bottom 5.

that doesn't mean they can't afford to have an MLB-average level payroll. it just means they are not going to say "bleep it, we're rich" and start spending $200-Million a year.

the real issue is how well or how smartly they spend their money. that's where the front-office mistakes really hurt - signing pitchers with injury problems, etc.

the Pohlads are not preventing the Twins from winning. that's on the front office and management for making bad decisions.
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And who hires the front office?
 

jamiche said:
Ironically, the TV ratings are semi irrelevant. The networks (local and national) are dying for summer broadcast content. There are no other live sporting events other than golf and soccer between the NBA Finals and the start of the NFL regular season. MLB is the only one of the big four that has broadcast rights all to itself for three months of the year. That's why baseball gets such big TV deals.
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As I noted earlier in the thread, per the ML Network, MLB had recited revenue for 2022.

My hope, is since this is Joe’s show now, he can hire/fire as he sees fit starting next season - I get not doing it this year if that’s the case.
 
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