Twins mailbag: Post-deadline plans, TV ratings, Byron Buxton’s future and Nick Gordon vs. Rob Refsnyder
Plus, why the Twins traded José Berríos and not Michael Pineda, a Josh Winder injury update and Royce Lewis vs. Hunter Greene.
theathletic.com
Now that the smoke has cleared following a frantic, star-studded trade deadline that saw the
Twins send Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay
for two prospects and deal José Berríos to Toronto
for two more, there are all sorts of follow-up questions that need answering about the team’s present and future.
Let’s crack open the mailbag and get right to them.
Aside from the Byron Buxton contract extension or possible trade, what are some key Twins storylines to watch for this offseason? — Jacob L.
In terms of importance, the biggest offseason Twins storyline will be whether they continue to act like sellers, as they did at the trade deadline, or turn their attention to improving the 2022 club. Twins officials insist they want to reload, not rebuild, with an eye on contending next season, yet they traded Berríos and openly shopped Buxton,
Josh Donaldson and other veterans at the deadline.
It’s possible Berríos
was a unique situation in that he was focused on post-2022 free agency — or at least confident he’ll get a bigger payday than the Twins’ top extension offer — and brought back a sizable, better-than-expected trade haul in what proved to be a seller’s market. If that’s the case, then perhaps the Twins hang onto everyone else and try to add veteran pitching (again) this offseason.
However, if their seller status remains in place this offseason, that would mean continuing to field offers for Buxton, Donaldson,
Taylor Rogers,
Kenta Maeda,
Max Kepler and other key pieces. You can try to label that as something other than a “rebuild” and maybe the Twins feel they can still be competitive in 2022 and 2023 even without those veterans, but it’s certainly not a “reload.”
I’ve been told trading Berríos makes sense, but I still don’t get how trading away their best/only good pitcher will help the Twins next year? — Jesse M.
There is no argument to be made that trading Berríos helps the Twins in 2022. It doesn’t. No one, with the Twins or elsewhere, would suggest otherwise. Any argument in favor of trading Berríos is that losing him hurts the Twins less for the next 1 1/2 seasons than gaining top prospects
Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson
helps the Twins for the future, beyond 2022. We’ll see.
Any chance Berríos re-signs with the Twins as a free agent? — Mark O.
Very unlikely. To sign Berríos as a free agent, the Twins would have to out-bid 29 other teams, which has essentially never happened for the Twins when bidding on any prominent free-agent pitcher. And that’s why Berríos turned down the Twins’ extension offers, knowing odds are one of the other 29 teams would pay him more on the open market. Additionally, it would cost the Twins a draft pick to sign him.
Can the Twins sweeten their extension offer by tearing up the last year of Buxton’s contract for 2022? — Rohn J.
Yes. My understanding of the contract negotiations is that any deal signed by Buxton would have started in 2022, his final season of arbitration eligibility. If, for example, he’d agreed to a seven-year extension, that would have covered his arbitration-eligible 2022 season — when he’s projected to be paid roughly $8 million — and six seasons of free agency.
What remains a mystery, in terms of why talks stalled, is
the widely reported notion that the two sides were mostly in agreement on the guaranteed money and their disagreement was primarily with playing-time incentives. That’s the opposite of how these things typically go because teams are generally thrilled to lower the upfront money and raise the incentive-based pay.
Are we ever going to get to watch the Twins on streaming services? What, if anything, can the Twins do to put pressure on Sinclair? — El A.
It’s out of the Twins’ control, unfortunately. They’re one of 16 teams on a Bally Sports network, which are owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group. None of those 16 teams are widely available on streaming services, so half of all
MLB fans are in the same boat as Minnesotans. Not surprisingly, those 16 teams, as a group, have seen their audiences plummet.
According to Forbes, the 16 teams on Bally Sports networks collectively have seen an audience decline of 19 percent compared to 2019, the last full MLB season. Meanwhile, the 14 teams not on Bally Sports networks collectively have seen a slight audience increase compared to 2019. Some of that is based on the teams involved, but the math seems pretty simple: no streaming, no audience.
That’s certainly been true locally, although it’s also true that the Twins being in last place would have led to a big drop in audience no matter what, particularly compared to the division-winning 2019 season. Whatever the case, the Twins’ television audience is down 47 percent from 2020 and 55 percent from 2019. They’ve averaged 49,000 viewers per game, compared to 109,000 in 2019.
I’ve stopped watching the games, and rely on your tweets and articles to keep up with the squad. What, if anything, should cause me to tune back in to this last-place team? — Anthony M.
I’m basically in the business of getting people to subscribe to
The Athletic and to read my articles, so if you’re still doing that, then I’m happy. Convincing fans to watch games, at Target Field or on TV, is a job best left to the Twins. I will say this, though: In a season as frustrating as this one, the fact that you continue to read our Twins coverage is not something we take for granted. It means a lot.
What does the future hold for Rob Refsnyder and Nick Gordon? — Sean M.
Refsnyder returning from the injured list last week and bumping Gordon back to Triple A upset a lot of fans. I get it, in that Gordon is a former top-five pick with
much more name recognition than most 25-year-olds trying to carve out a career in a bench role. I also agree, in general, that the Twins should be giving more playing time, not less, to unproven players like Gordon in a lost season.
On the surface, sending Gordon back to the minors in order to use a roster spot on a 30-year-old journeyman makes little sense, but Refsnyder has shown real upside this season after working with Triple-A hitting coach Matt Borgschulte to alter his swing mechanics. He’s hit .333/.394/.508 in 20 games for the Twins and .318/.425/.621 in 18 games for the Saints.
Maybe it’ll prove to be a mirage, but Refsnyder is elevating the ball more often and simply hitting the ball harder. He’s also shown the ability to be a far more capable emergency center fielder than expected, in addition to being an option in the outfield corners and everywhere but shortstop in the infield. Refsnyder isn’t the same player he was before 2021, and the player he is now looks good.
If you’re a big believer in Gordon, there’s reason to question why he’s increasing his fielding versatility at Triple A rather than doing so in the majors in place of
Andrelton Simmons,
Willians Astudillo or
Jake Cave. But lumping Refsnyder into that same group may be misguided since he might be playing his way into the Twins’ plans for next season as a much-needed right-handed outfield bat.
Are the Twins working on a contract extension for Michael Pineda? If not, why didn’t they trade him? — Dylan K.
Pineda and the Twins coming to terms on an extension before he reaches free agency this offseason shouldn’t be ruled out. They like Pineda a lot, on and off the field, they’ve already signed him twice before and the 2022 rotation clearly needs help. But none of that would have kept the Twins from trading Pineda if they’d received a decent offer. They never got one, for Pineda or for Simmons.
I was happy to see Trevor Larnach lay off some breaking stuff recently and take his walks. Given how obvious the issue is, do you think he successfully adjusts? — Abe F.
(This is referring
an article I wrote last week about Larnach’s struggles against non-fastballs and pitchers forcing him to adjust by feeding him off-speed stuff.)
I’m confident he’ll adjust. Not only is Larnach a very talented young hitter with a strong track record in the minors and in college, he’s often praised by coaches and teammates — and
Justin Morneau, as I
wrote about during spring training — for his intelligence, work ethic and devotion to improving as a hitter. Plus, a rookie struggling with off-speed stuff isn’t uncommon. He’ll put the work in.
Would the Twins rethink their 2017 draft strategy, knowing what they know now about Hunter Greene and Royce Lewis? — Ben J.
Greene, the consensus top prospect in the 2017 class, blew out his elbow soon after the Twins passed on him with the No. 1 pick, but now he’s healthy and thriving at Triple A while Lewis is out with a torn ACL. Greene is the better prospect at this point — he’s above Lewis on the midseason lists of Baseball America and
The Athletic, among others — but the gap is relatively close.
Part of the Twins’ strategy involved signing Lewis for a below-slot bonus and reallocating some of their limited pool money on a high-bonus prospect later in the draft. That ended up being
Blayne Enlow, a high school pitcher who fell to the third round because he wanted first-round money to bypass college. Enlow got $2 million, became a good prospect … and blew out his elbow this May.
Who are the Twins’ top-10 call-ups from Double A or Triple A beginning Sept. 1? — Marc C.
September roster expansion is no more. Previously, teams could expand their roster from 25 players up to as many as 40 starting in September, but that was eliminated last season. Now the active roster from April through August is 26 players and the September roster expands to only 28 players. You may see some Twins prospects called up for the first time in September, but not like before.
Will we see Josh Winder up with the big-league squad this year? — Tim B.
As of last month, I’d have said maybe, but I’m told Winder has been shut down for 2-3 weeks at Triple A with what the Twins are calling shoulder fatigue. It’s being viewed as a precautionary move intended to manage his workload after a 2020 season in which Winder, like most pitching prospects, threw no innings. But it’s still unfortunate news for a prospect having a breakout season.
Winder was one of the prospects the Twins pointed to as making huge strides behind the scenes last season and he showed that was for real by dominating Double-A hitters with a 1.98 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 55 innings, earning a spot in the Futures Game. Winder hasn’t been as effective since an early July promotion to Triple A and is now sidelined, likely ruling out a Twins call-up.
Will Lewis Thorpe get a chance to start again this year or has he played his last game for the Twins? — Edilberto P.
Thorpe has been on the Triple-A injured list since early June with a strained left shoulder, but he recently completed a rehab assignment and has rejoined St. Paul’s rotation. Given the state of the Twins’ staff, and the fact that Thorpe will be out of options next season and can no longer be sent to the minors, they should be motivated to take an extended look at him down the stretch.
Do you anticipate any major Twins coaching or front-office shakeups after the season? — Anthony M.
In
an interview with Dan Hayes last month, Twins owner Jim Pohlad indicated that major changes are unlikely for the front office and he gave manager Rocco Baldelli a vote of confidence.
There will definitely be coaching changes. They opted not to officially replace Mike Bell as bench coach after he passed away during spring training, splitting his various duties among several coaches. That position will be filled on a full-time basis. I’d also expect at least one or two other coaching changes, although that’s purely speculation at this point.
Why can’t I stop watching games? This team is going nowhere this season and many of the games are frustrating to watch. Why do I still find myself compelled to watch? Do I need to seek help? — Dave M.
Because bad baseball is still way better than no baseball. And come December or January, you’d kill to be able to watch some random Twins loss to the
Royals that would have driven you nuts in August or September.
But yes, seek help. And then let me know what they tell you.
weak ass non-reply. I figured as much
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