Is it for real? Jose Miranda is having the best season by a Twins hitting prospect in 20 years
Unprotected and unpicked in the Rule 5 draft, Miranda is now forcing his way into the Twins' plans with a breakout season.
theathletic.com
Eight months ago, the
Twins left
Jose Miranda unprotected from the Rule 5 draft and the 23-year-old infielder was not selected by any of the 29 other
MLB teams, remaining in the organization without requiring a spot on the 40-man roster.
Miranda was a decent prospect, ranking No. 30 on my Twins top-40 list
this spring and No. 39
in 2020, but the 2016 second-round pick had yet to convert his oft-praised raw hitting tools into notable production in the minor leagues. He hit a combined .258/.315/.395 in his first four pro seasons, including just .248/.299/.364 with eight homers in 118 games at High A in 2019.
Like most other prospects, Miranda missed out on seeing any game action in 2020 because COVID-19 wiped away the minor league season. But he put in work behind the scenes with Twins coaches, who encouraged the free-swinger to take a more disciplined approach at the plate in an effort to avoid putting so many out-of-zone pitches in play and get Miranda into more hitter’s counts.
“He has such good feel for the barrel, it almost didn’t matter what the pitcher threw,” Twins player development director
Alex Hassan said. “He was going to be aggressive because he knew he could hit the ball. We challenged him to be more selective early in the count. Let’s try to narrow your strike zone early in the count and look to do more damage.”
In other words, they wanted Miranda to stop letting pitchers off easy just because he had the contact skills to put nearly any pitch in play. While that aggressive approach led to few strikeouts because he rarely went deep in counts, it also generated few walks and underwhelming overall production from a hitter with far too much natural talent to be slugging below .400.
The change in approach has worked in ways the Twins could never have imagined as Miranda has put together one of the biggest breakout seasons in all of minor league baseball. It started at Double A, where Miranda batted .345/.408/.588 with 13 homers in 47 games. That earned him a promotion to Triple A, where he’s been even better, hitting .354/.415/.654 with nine homers in 30 games.
Combined between the two levels, Miranda is hitting .349/.411/.614 with 22 homers and 19 doubles in 77 games while striking out just 49 times versus 30 walks in 360 plate appearances. He led the Double-A Central league in OPS at the time of his promotion and now has the second-best OPS in the Triple-A East league.
Miranda, a right-handed batter, is hitting .330 versus righties and .392 versus lefties. He’s posted an OPS above .950 in every month. And he’s done it while facing pitchers older than him in 92.8 percent of his plate appearances, hitting .360 off them. Miranda has multiple hits in 33 of 77 games, including a pair of five-hit games, one of which was his three-homer Triple-A debut on June 29.
Not only is Miranda having the best 2021 season of any Twins minor leaguer and one of the best 2021 seasons by any prospect, period, he’s on track for the highest OPS by a Twins prospect in the past 20 years. Better yet, the company Miranda is keeping suggests that having this type of monster season in the high minors is an extremely good sign for a prospect’s future.
Here are the highest OPS numbers posted by 23-and-under Twins prospects playing at Double A or Triple A in the past 20 years (minimum 300 plate appearances):
PROSPECT | YEAR | AGE | PA | OPS |
---|
Jason Kubel | 2004 | 22 | 549 | 1.004 |
Justin Morneau | 2004 | 23 | 326 | .992 |
Miguel Sanó | 2013 | 20 | 519 | .992 |
Michael Cuddyer | 2002 | 23 | 372 | .973 |
Max Kepler | 2015 | 22 | 508 | .930 |
| | | | |
Jose Miranda | 2021 | 23 | 360 | 1.025 |
Only five 23-and-under Twins prospects playing in the high minors have come within 100 points of Miranda’s current OPS in the past 20 years, and all five of them went on to become good, and occasionally great, regulars for the Twins.
Also of note is that, unlike those five prospects, all of whom ended up as corner outfielders or first basemen, Miranda has a chance to stick as a second baseman or third baseman (or perhaps a super-utility man who also dabbles at shortstop and first base). He’s played all four infield spots this season, with his most action at second and third, where Twins officials consider him average or better.
Jason Kubel,
Justin Morneau,
Miguel Sanó,
Michael Cuddyer and
Max Kepler were established as top prospects with impressive track records when they put up those big numbers in the high minors, whereas Miranda’s high-minors breakout is occurring after four mostly underwhelming seasons. However, he’s long been touted as a potential breakout candidate by Twins officials and what he’s doing this season is truly special.
Miranda has added 100 points to his batting average and tapped into massive power while upping his walk rate and barely sacrificing the contact skills that were his primary calling card prior to 2021. Compared to his last season, 2019, his isolated power is up 130 percent and his walk rate is up 70 percent, yet his strikeout rate has only risen from 11.2 percent to a still-low 13.6 percent.
“He’s always been really hard to strike out, with incredible bat-to-ball skills,” Hassan said. “Now we’re starting to see that profile come together, where he’s driving the ball and he’s still maintaining that incredible bat-to-ball skill.”
To do that while jumping from High A to Double A, and then quickly Triple A, following a cancelled season is incredibly promising, and within the context of the past two decades of Twins prospects it’s all but unheard of for anyone not destined to become a first baseman or corner outfielder. So yes, there’s reason to be skeptical of Miranda’s star potential, but there’s also reason to buy in.
If the Twins were to trade
Josh Donaldson this offseason, Miranda could take over at third base. In the unlikely event the Twins move
Jorge Polanco back to shortstop following
Andrelton Simmons’ impending departure as a free agent, Miranda could take over at second base. And if the Twins keep Donaldson and Polanco in place, Miranda could still factor into the 2022 plans as a utility man.
And the way he’s playing, we might even see him at Target Field in 2021.