And the 2 main Twins writers weight in about % for possible Twins trades -
Big names who could be on the move include José Berríos, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Kenta Maeda, Max Kepler and Michael Pineda.
theathletic.com
The 5 Twins most likely to be traded before the deadline
t’s not how they preferred it to be, but the
Twins should be one of the most interesting teams in baseball leading up to Friday’s 3 p.m. CT trade deadline.
With Nelson Cruz
already traded, Byron Buxton now seemingly available after contract extension talks
broke down and a talented roster full of impending free agents and players with one or more years of team control remaining, the Twins promise to keep the front office busy all week.
Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will undoubtedly field phone calls up until the final minutes from opposing GMs looking to improve their rosters for the postseason push.
Stuck in last place instead of contending for a third straight American League Central title, Twins players know what to expect this week.
Taylor Rogers said “it’s inevitable” as players prepare to be shipped to teams better off in the standings.
With that in mind, we’re doing some educated speculation in determining who will stay and who could go before the weekend begins. We’ll not only review the likeliest of candidates but also dive deeper into players who make sense as the Twins contemplate how big of a selloff they intend to have.
Chance he’s traded: 85 percent
Why it could happen
After more than a month of struggles related to being hit in the forearm by a comebacker, Pineda had it going again on Monday night in what’s almost sure to be his final start for the 2021 Twins. We say “2021” because the Twins are big fans of Big Mike, so we can’t rule out the possibility of him returning on a free-agent deal next season when he’s 33. But with free agency pending and the Twins decidedly out of the playoff picture, Pineda should draw a few suitors thanks to reliable performances in 2019 and 2020.
After having Tommy John surgery in 2017 and knee surgery in 2018, Pineda picked up the pace after May 2019 and was a force for the Twins over his next 20 starts, including five in 2020. In that stretch, Pineda struck out 115 batters in 113 2/3 innings and posted a 3.17 ERA while going 9-2. He carried that over to this season, posting a 2.62 ERA through May with 47 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings before getting struck by a comebacker. Pineda struggled for four starts and needed a stint on the injured list, but he’s been good in his last two outings, allowing three earned runs while striking out nine and walking only one in 11 innings.
What the Twins can expect in return
Pineda’s recent IL stint no doubt takes a chunk out of his trade value, but back-to-back solid outings after a two-week pause around the All-Star break shows that he’s looking like his pre-injury self again and plenty of contenders could use him as a third or fourth starter capable of taking the ball in a playoff game. Pineda is beloved in the clubhouse and owed only $4 million for the remainder of the season, making him an obvious target for teams in need of rotation help but without a ton of payroll room or big-time prospect capital to invest.
Getting something of value for Pineda should be pretty straightforward, which is why he sits atop this list, but 10-12 starts of a mid-rotation starter not far removed from the IL is unlikely to generate a huge return. If the Twins can get one high-minors pitching prospect with big-league upside, or a pair of mid-tier prospects a little further away, that would represent a good outcome in saying goodbye — perhaps only temporarily — to Large Michael.
Chance he’s traded: 85 percent
Why it could happen
The Twins didn’t sign Simmons to a one-year deal worth $10.5 million because of his bat. They brought him in to help sharpen up the team’s infield defense, which had been miserable the past few years. Though Simmons isn’t quite the defender he once was, the veteran has been valuable and could easily contribute on a winning team down the stretch. He’s a low-key persona who happens to turn in spectacular plays.
That skill set alone should make him a valuable commodity to a contender, even if it’s to give that team a dynamite defender off the bench. One potential drawback for Simmons’ trade candidacy is he hasn’t been vaccinated — something he’s been open about on social media — and could hurt a team that is near the 85 percent COVID-19 threshold if added to the roster.
What the Twins can expect in return
Simmons ranks 29th out of 30 starting shortstops in OPS, but he’s still one of the game’s better fielders and several contenders — Oakland, Cincinnati, Cleveland — have gotten similarly poor offensive production from their shortstops. If one of them views Simmons as a clear upgrade, the Twins might be able to shed the remaining $4 million on his one-year contract and get a mid-tier prospect. If instead Simmons’ market is limited to contenders interested in him as a backup, the salary dump and a low-level minor leaguer may have to suffice.
What value does saving money have to the Twins in terms of the on-field product? None unless the front office reinvests it into future payrolls, but ownership surely would love as much of a rebate as possible after back-to-back seasons with lower than expected revenues. By trading Cruz, the Twins already saved $5 million and it’s possible that could climb above $15 million in total with more money-shedding trades, potentially giving ownership less reason to cut the 2022 payroll. That’s the optimistic view, anyway. If they don’t spend it, there’s no real value.
Alexander Colomé, RHP
Chance he’s traded: 80 percent
Why it could happen
You’re probably looking at this one kind of sideways right now. You’re probably thinking Dan and Aaron have been doing a little too much drinking while on deadline and we wouldn’t blame you. His March/April was awful. It’s well-documented how much Colomé crushed the Twins with his woeful performance in the season’s first weeks. But here’s the thing — Colomé has clearly figured some things out and is back to producing more consistently.
Monday night, when he was brought on in an emergency after Rogers exited with a finger injury, wasn’t optimal, as Colomé surrendered a game-tying home run. Yet since May 1, Colomé has a 3.77 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings. He hasn’t been pristine and still at times has looked pretty suspect, but since May 1 he has an expected batting average of .249 compared with .308 in April. Someone will take a flier on him because of his experience pitching big innings throughout his career and the low price tag.
What the Twins can expect in return
Colomé having any trade value whatsoever seemed impossible not so long ago, but he’s quietly turned things around while working primarily low- and medium-leverage situations, posting a neutral Win Probability Added after looking ready to challenge Ron Davis for the worst WPA in team history during April.
That’s not enough for contending teams to value him as an actual late-inning option again — they have eyes, after all — but it should be enough for the Twins to shed the remaining $2 million on his one-year contract while perhaps also receiving a low-level prospect to make it look like more than just a pure salary dump.
“Great trade, what they’d get?” will be a reasonable response if/when Twins fans see news of a Colomé deal this week.
José Berríos, RHP
Chance he’s traded: 60 percent
Why it could happen
The consensus is the Twins would need another team to back up the Brink’s truck and dump a ton of prospects on their lawn for this to happen. Given that the
San Diego Padres and
Los Angeles Dodgers went all-out to build championship contenders during the offseason, now could use pitching help and both have great farm systems, it’s a good bet the Twins could have their price met.
Unless
Max Scherzer is made available by the
Washington Nationals, Berríos would easily be the top starting pitcher option on the market. Berríos is 27 and striking out 9.5 batters per nine since 2020 (32 starts). He’s been outstanding this season, averaging more than six innings per start and taking the mound every time out. And, with his free agency — which he plans to test — not coming until after next season, Berríos isn’t just a two-month rental, making him that much more expensive. If the Twins can bring in a haul, they just may part with Berríos.
What the Twins can expect in return
Based on recent deals for similar pitchers, such as
Marcus Stroman in mid-2019, the going rate for an under-30 frontline starter like Berríos with one-plus season under team control is at least two borderline top-100 global prospects. There are
strong indications that the Twins could bring in more than that based on how well Berríos is pitching and how many contenders are pursuing him, making it awfully tempting to accept one of many appealing offers even if they aren’t forced to move him now.
If the Twins do trade Berríos, expect them to target high-minors, big-league-ready pitching, perhaps even demanding a young major leaguer in addition to multiple upper-level prospects. They have leverage here, combining the best product on the market with plenty of time to trade him if they can’t find a deal they like this week. And they could always get a draft pick if Berríos leaves as post-2022 free agent, setting a high baseline for any trade discussions before then. They want to be blown away by an offer and it could happen.
Chance he’s traded: 55 percent
Why it could happen
Donaldson has been a winner everywhere he’s gone, appearing in the postseason seven of the last nine seasons (a right calf injury kept him from playing in the 2020 postseason). The Twins signed him to the largest free-agent deal in club history in January 2020 for that very reason. Though calf injuries have slowed him over the years, Donaldson is still a very valuable contributor on a winning club. He has been very good at the plate in 2021, belting his 16th homer on Monday night.
The chances of Donaldson being moved would largely revolve around how much of the $55 million he’s still owed the Twins are willing to absorb. A club source indicated earlier this season that ownership would potentially OK such a trade if the deal made sense for the future. If the Twins were to trade Berríos, they’d seemingly be throwing in their cards for 2022, which would make Donaldson an expensive, win-now piece for a club looking to retool.
What the Twins can expect in return
Donaldson isn’t for everyone, so some contending teams simply won’t make a run at him even though his on-field production has been fantastic since returning from the IL in mid-April. He’s played 80 out of 90 games since then, hitting .250/.354/.481 with 46 walks versus 67 strikeouts, including homering 11 times with a .582 slugging percentage in his last 38 games. That should make moving Donaldson easier, but the Twins will likely still have to choose between shedding maximum money or eating a big chunk of his contract to boost the prospect return.
If he were a free agent this offseason, it seems reasonable to assume the 35-year-old would be in line for a one- or two-year deal worth around $15 million per season. Compared with his actual contract, that puts his negative trade value at approximately a $20 million deficit. If the Twins eat that much or more, they should expect to get a decent prospect or two back. If the Twins eat less than that, then the payroll savings will likely represent most of the value in a Donaldson trade.
The next-most likely to be moved
Byron Buxton, CF
The center fielder’s chances of being moved increased noticeably on Sunday when his representatives informed the Twins they couldn’t come to terms on a contract extension. Still, Buxton being hurt could hinder the possibility of a trade. Buxton is an interesting case because he’s a dynamic force with talent that can be matched by few players throughout the league. His market would surely be harder to gauge based on Buxton playing in only 37 percent of his team’s games since 2018. However, if a team were willing to meet their price now, he could go.
Max Kepler, OF
Kepler has played well since returning from a hamstring injury in mid-June, slugging .482 with eight homers in 30 games. Owed a reasonable $6.75 million in 2022 and $8.5 million in 2023, plus a team option for 2024, he’ll appeal to contenders looking to reshape their outfield for multiple seasons and could be especially intriguing to teams in need of left-handed power. There’s no urgency to move Kepler, but with lefty bats
Alex Kirilloff,
Trevor Larnach and
Luis Arraez giving the Twins plenty of options in the outfield corners, Kepler could be used as a way to bring in pitching help.
Kenta Maeda, RHP
A month ago, there was no way the Twins would have considered moving Maeda, as they’d have been selling low on an asset with two more seasons under an inexpensive contract. But Maeda has improved while getting healthier, striking out 46 batters in his past 37 innings while walking only 13. Maeda also has been less susceptible to the long ball, allowing three in that span after yielding nine in his first 42 2/3 innings. He’s drawn interest from contending clubs, with San Diego having expressed a desire to bring him back out West.
Hansel Robles, RHP
Similar to Pineda, moving Robles should be pretty straightforward. He’s a solid, well-liked veteran reliever owed less than $1 million for the rest of his one-year contract, and Robles could slide into a medium-leverage role in nearly any contender’s bullpen. Unfortunately for the Twins, those types of relievers don’t usually bring back much in the way of value, because the market is always flooded. Moving him will be easy. Moving him for legit value will be a taller task.
Editor’s note: We had a kick-ass writeup on Taylor Rogers and initially had his chances of being traded listed at 65 percent, but he sustained a sprained middle finger on his left hand in the ninth inning on Monday. With Rogers’ health uncertain, we pulled him off the board.
