All Things 2021 Gophers Basketball Recruiting Thread

This has been said before but this isn't just a MN problem. The % of top kids playing for their home school is very very low. Even 1 in 3 years.

Yes, this merits repeating. Rutgers isn't getting 5 stars from New Jersey, Penn State isn't getting 5 stars from PA (neither are Pitt or Temple), and Iowa hasn't gotten a 5 star from that state (yes, there actually have been two or three) since Ricky Davis in the late nineties. I don't know who would be the most recent five star from Wisconsin (probably Henry Ellenson) but Wisconsin didn't get him either.

This isn't just a Minnesota issue.
 

Why can't you get the 5 stars?

I agree, most won't come. But here is where I differ. You need to get one of them every once in while. This IMO is what has hurt our in state recruiting more than anything. Every 3 years, you should get the best player in your state to stay.

We have had probably 7-8 of these types of guys in the last 5-7 years and got ZERO of them. This has to change IMO.

On that note, I don't think it WILL change until this coach proves he can coach kids and win. And he will have to do it with lesser talent IMO. Just the way it is.
I get what you are trying to say, but I think there were like three 5-stars in MN that stretch, two went to Duke, one to Gonzaga. Coffey was #1 in state, Oturu was #2 in state in that same period. Hard for a middling to low Big Ten team to land those players given who the competition is. Agree winning at an elevated level will help.
 

Yes, this merits repeating. Rutgers isn't getting 5 stars from New Jersey, Penn State isn't getting 5 stars from PA (neither are Pitt or Temple), and Iowa hasn't gotten a 5 star from that state (yes, there actually have been two or three) since Ricky Davis in the late nineties. I don't know who would be the most recent five star from Wisconsin (probably Henry Ellenson) but Wisconsin didn't get him either.

This isn't just a Minnesota issue.
Can you take a crack at my question, then?

I think it is an intriguing idea, worth a shot.


Has any public P5 had good results, consistently, by keeping some significant percentage of their state/area's top 150-ish, 4*-ish talent home?

Granted there aren't a lot of great comparisons to Minnesota's situation, in other states. Maybe schools like Washington, Arkansas, ... a few others? But still interested if any have done it.
 

Can you take a crack at my question, then?

I think it is an intriguing idea, worth a shot.


Has any public P5 had good results, consistently, by keeping some significant percentage of their state/area's top 150-ish, 4*-ish talent home?

Granted there aren't a lot of great comparisons to Minnesota's situation, in other states. Maybe schools like Washington, Arkansas, ... a few others? But still interested if any have done it.
Would Wisconsin fit the bill?
 

Can you take a crack at my question, then?

I think it is an intriguing idea, worth a shot.


Has any public P5 had good results, consistently, by keeping some significant percentage of their state/area's top 150-ish, 4*-ish talent home?

Granted there aren't a lot of great comparisons to Minnesota's situation, in other states. Maybe schools like Washington, Arkansas, ... a few others? But still interested if any have done it.
I think Michigan State always has good in state players
 




Can you take a crack at my question, then?

I think it is an intriguing idea, worth a shot.


Has any public P5 had good results, consistently, by keeping some significant percentage of their state/area's top 150-ish, 4*-ish talent home?

Granted there aren't a lot of great comparisons to Minnesota's situation, in other states. Maybe schools like Washington, Arkansas, ... a few others? But still interested if any have done it.
I took a shot in the dark and picked Purdue to look at. Indiana is similar in population to MN, largest city is similar in size to the Twin Cities, next largest cities similar to MN.

Purdue has been far better than the gophers over this time (also have more in state competition too though). No idea who is still on the team due to transfers etc.

2021 class - signed top two kids in IN. Both top 100 recruits
2020 class - signed #2 kid in IN. Top 100 kid in the class
2019 class - signed #5, #7, #8 in IN. No top 100 kids
2018 class - signed #6 IN, 150 in class
2017 class - signed #15 IN, barely ranked in class.

This was just a quick glance at one team though.
 

Three headed monster, really:

- isolated from the nearest non-local population centers (6.5hrs to KC and Chicago, 7.5hrs to STL)
- cold climate (tough on kids who don't grow up with that climate, even if distance isn't an issue)
- local kids want to get away (like everyone else)


No other P5 has it as bad, like that. No other, in all those dimensions.
 



I took a shot in the dark and picked Purdue to look at. Indiana is similar in population to MN, largest city is similar in size to the Twin Cities, next largest cities similar to MN.

Purdue has been far better than the gophers over this time (also have more in state competition too though). No idea who is still on the team due to transfers etc.

2021 class - signed top two kids in IN. Both top 100 recruits
2020 class - signed #2 kid in IN. Top 100 kid in the class
2019 class - signed #5, #7, #8 in IN. No top 100 kids
2018 class - signed #6 IN, 150 in class
2017 class - signed #15 IN, barely ranked in class.

This was just a quick glance at one team though.
Right. But Purdue is quite close to Chicago, if local kids didn't work out. We can't fall back on that.
 

I took a shot in the dark and picked Purdue to look at. Indiana is similar in population to MN, largest city is similar in size to the Twin Cities, next largest cities similar to MN.

Purdue has been far better than the gophers over this time (also have more in state competition too though). No idea who is still on the team due to transfers etc.

2021 class - signed top two kids in IN. Both top 100 recruits
2020 class - signed #2 kid in IN. Top 100 kid in the class
2019 class - signed #5, #7, #8 in IN. No top 100 kids
2018 class - signed #6 IN, 150 in class
2017 class - signed #15 IN, barely ranked in class.

This was just a quick glance at one team though.
That's kind of a different example due to Indiana having one of the best prep schools in the country.
 

Right. But Purdue is quite close to Chicago, if local kids didn't work out. We can't fall back on that.
Right they are closer to a lot of population centers...maybe it evens out because they compete with Indiana and Butler among others?

Another stat...of the currently committed 2021 players 27 out of 100 are staying in state although a number of those are to schools like North Carolina, Villanova, UCLA, etc. Very very few kids from places like Nevada, Mississippi, Georgia, etc. without a blue blood caliber in state program are staying home.
 

Three headed monster, really:

- isolated from the nearest non-local population centers (6.5hrs to KC and Chicago, 7.5hrs to STL)
- cold climate (tough on kids who don't grow up with that climate, even if distance isn't an issue)
- local kids want to get away (like everyone else)


No other P5 has it as bad, like that. No other, in all those dimensions.
University of Washington.
 



Saying "keep in-state kids" also loses quite a bit of meaning when states get more dense and population centers are close to each other.

It's more meaningful to us because we're so isolated, with just our local population center being close.
 

University of Washington.
For sure, a solid comparison. Colorado and (new-money) Utah are other good ones.

Although for Utah (and Arizona schools), Las Vegas is also "down the road".
 
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Can you take a crack at my question, then?

I think it is an intriguing idea, worth a shot.


Has any public P5 had good results, consistently, by keeping some significant percentage of their state/area's top 150-ish, 4*-ish talent home?

Granted there aren't a lot of great comparisons to Minnesota's situation, in other states. Maybe schools like Washington, Arkansas, ... a few others? But still interested if any have done it.

Good question. I don't know. Not something I've looked at before and It would take a long time to research.

I did a quick research of this issue a few weeks ago when looking back at Minnesota history on Sports Reference because I noticed that Monson had very Minnesota native heavy rosters compared to the coaches since (I wasn't a fan then). I don't know how highly all of those kids were rated but he did get some highly rated ones (for example, Kris Humphries and Rick Rickert were very highly rated and Adam Boone and Mike Bauer were top 100 in-state players). Of course, his overall results were not so good.

My conclusion was that what some posters want has been done before - by Monson. I would assume those advocates would say "Yeah, but MN prep players are so much better now!" Maybe that's true but until one of these younger players eclipses him, Kris Humphries will remain the most successful MN basketball player of this century.
 

I think Michigan State always has good in state players
MSU is a great comparison. Similar to the u of m, MSU decided to recruit black players in the early 60s and since then those 2 schools have led in integration in the Big Ten. It’s time to recruit those kids that the other BT schools are afraid to add to the basketball locker room.
 

For sure, a solid comparison. Colorado and (new-money) Utah are other good ones.

Although for Utah (and Arizona schools), Las Vegas is also "down the road".
Washington State and Oregon as well.
 

MSU is a great comparison. Similar to the u of m, MSU decided to recruit black players in the early 60s and since then those 2 schools have led in integration in the Big Ten. It’s time to recruit those kids that the other BT schools are afraid to add to the basketball locker room.
I'm not sure I follow. Who are the kids the other B1G schools are afraid to add?
 

Can you take a crack at my question, then?

I think it is an intriguing idea, worth a shot.


Has any public P5 had good results, consistently, by keeping some significant percentage of their state/area's top 150-ish, 4*-ish talent home?

Granted there aren't a lot of great comparisons to Minnesota's situation, in other states. Maybe schools like Washington, Arkansas, ... a few others? But still interested if any have done it.
I'm not making the argument that the University of Washington is something to look up to...but I think think they are our closest analogue. They just had a couple really down years (5-21, 15-17) but I think we could reach their early Lorenzo Romar years.
  • Urban campus and similar size (46K enrollment) as the U of M (51K)
  • Similar academic reputation (#58 UNSWR) as the U of M(#66, let's please not start an argument about this folks...I'm in academics and it's true)
  • Remote/rural instate competitors Washington State in Pullman and Eastern Washington in Spokane area play the role of our Dakota schools although Wazzu is actually in the Pac-12 and recruits better.
  • Similar population (7.6 million to MN (5.6 million), largely white and educated but getting more diverse in the one major city
  • Gonzaga is the major wrench -- we don't have anything similar competition wise from a private school within a 4 hour drive. Marquette would be comparable a decade ago but not anymore. Hopefully St. Thomas never morphs into a competitor for our recruits.
State of Washington Basketball top 150 Recruits and Destinations, and Washington Signees
2021
  • 5 star (#3 overall) Paolo Banchero going to Duke
  • 4 star (#53 overall) Kaden Perry going to Gonzaga
  • 4 star (#67 overall) Jackson Grant staying home at Washington
  • 4 star (#80 overall) Shane Nowell going to Arizona
  • Washington also signed unranked international Samuel Ariyibi and hometown transfer guy Terrell Brown Jr from Arizona
2020 (down year talent wise)
  • 4 star (#111 overall) Jabe Mullins going to St. Marys
  • 3 star (#135 overall) Tari Eason going to Cincinatti
  • Washington also signed hometown transfer guy Erik Stevenson from Wichita State
2019
  • 5 star (#8 overall) Jaden McDaniels staying home at Washington
  • 4 star (#48 overall) Anton Watson going to Gonzaga
  • 4 star (#80 overall) Raequan Battle staying home at Washington
  • 4 star (#112 overall) Cole Bajema going to Michigan
  • Washington also signed 5 star #3 overall Isaiah Stewart from Indiana, and #315 overall from OR
2018
  • 5 star (#28 overall) Kevin Porter Jr going to USC
  • 4 star (#83 overall) Ja'Raan Brooks going to USC
  • 3 star (#177 overall) Emmitt Matthews going to West Virginia
  • Washington signed 4 star #109 overall Jamal Bey from Nevada, and 3 stars ranked#174 (UT), #201 (CA), #244 (Brewster prep),#467 (WA)
If you keep going back, they lose the #2 overall recruit in 2017 Michael Porter to Missouri, but sign the #67 overall in their backyard Jaylen Nowell. A lot of parallels between us and them. Obviously they have not converted it into success recently and I don't follow them enough to understand why or what went wrong.

We don't need to sign the top guy every year. That's not realistic. But if we can get the top instate guy once every 3-4 years, sign 1-2 of the other top 200 guys along with a transfer and another player or two from elsewhere, and we get some solid coaching and development...I think we are gonna be fine.
 


MSU is a great comparison. Similar to the u of m, MSU decided to recruit black players in the early 60s and since then those 2 schools have led in integration in the Big Ten. It’s time to recruit those kids that the other BT schools are afraid to add to the basketball locker room.

Whalen can start recruiting transgender players. The NCAA came out yesterday with a strong endorsement of support for transgender athletes.

The NCAA Board of Governors firmly and unequivocally supports the opportunity for transgender student-athletes to compete in college sports. This commitment is grounded in our values of inclusion and fair competition.
 


I posted this earlier in another thread. It shows the states with the most high school talent and what school gets the most kids from that state. We all know that the top 5 star kids typically do not stay instate, but it shows that many of the good players in a state stay home. I think this is the model that Coach Johnson is trying to accomplish. We may lose the top kid, but we need to get as many of the other top kids as we can.

https://watchstadium.com/ranking-ev...-basketball-prospects-it-produces-06-24-2019/

1618337249660.png
 

That's what scares me. If he can't get those guys to stay home essentially nobody can. 2022 will be a very telling task...otherwise like Mplsgopher said, we can get the guys who went to smaller schools to transfer back. We'll see how that works out this year.
This I disagree with. I really do hope Johnson is that guy, but let's say he isn't. That doesn't mean it's impossible. I'm sure Gonzaga 25 years ago thought well we will never compete with Washington for recruits! Or I'm sure TTU didn't think that they would out recruit every B12 school until Beard showed up. It's not easy to find that right coach (on any level and at any place) but because 1 or more people failed at it doesn't mean it's impossible.
 

As others have said: I don't think anyone expects the Gophers to land every top kid in the state.
the issue is not landing the #1 kid in the state - the issue is not landing the #3, #4 or #5 kid in the state.

If the Gophers can land (for sake of argument) 3 or 4 of the top 10 in the state, that can be - at the least - the base of the roster, and then fill out with out-of-state recruits, transfers, etc.

and then, if they can land the #1 kid in the state every 4-5 years, that's a bonus.
 

He is over 20 years their senior. Im not convinced that he can make it happen consistently. These kids have other influencers that hold a lot more sway.
But isn't the hope, and a reason he was hired, is he has that connection to both the kids AND the influencers? And one of the reasons everybody is so excited about Dave Thorson coming back? I have no doubt Ben and staff will put in the work. Just need a couple to buy in and it goes from there.
 
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Of course ..... do they keep a significant percentage of their state/area's top 150-ish, 4*-ish talent home? Honest question.
Just from the top of my head most of their stars have been from the chicagoland, minnesota and wisconsin area.
 

This I disagree with. I really do hope Johnson is that guy, but let's say he isn't. That doesn't mean it's impossible. I'm sure Gonzaga 25 years ago thought well we will never compete with Washington for recruits! Or I'm sure TTU didn't think that they would out recruit every B12 school until Beard showed up. It's not easy to find that right coach (on any level and at any place) but because 1 or more people failed at it doesn't mean it's impossible.
I hope Johnson is that guy too. If he isn't are we going to stop recruiting MN kids? No of course not, but maybe we can start to put less priority on that being a top requirement for the job and instead get someone who can recruit anywhere well. On top of that, let's get someone who can make their players better once they're here regardless where they are from.
 

I posted this earlier in another thread. It shows the states with the most high school talent and what school gets the most kids from that state. We all know that the top 5 star kids typically do not stay instate, but it shows that many of the good players in a state stay home. I think this is the model that Coach Johnson is trying to accomplish. We may lose the top kid, but we need to get as many of the other top kids as we can.

https://watchstadium.com/ranking-ev...-basketball-prospects-it-produces-06-24-2019/

View attachment 12488
Getting the other top state recruits really depends on where they rank nationally and the positional need. Andrew Morgan is arguably the #3 recruit in 2021. 2019 and 2020 were very good. 2022 looks good as well.
 




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