So to recap, Koenig makes a 3 that was about a 20% shot to tie it. Then the referee makes an absolutely egregious "look at me" charge call to give Wisconsin the ball back with a chance to win. Finally, Koenig makes a 3 that was about a 10% shot to win it. We're well under 1% probability here.
The last shot was a good shot, he'll make a lot of those, he was moving/shooting in rhythmn, wasn't pressured, the way it played out it wasn't unexpected, the fact that Xavier didn't deny him the ball was the most surprising part of that play.