Give this to PJ.Unlike say blackjack the inputs and probabilities probably vary quite a bit and are educated guesses but this article attempts to explain the mathematical reasoning for rarely or never punting.
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The Math Underwriting Pulaski Academy's Offense
Conventional wisdom is wrong. Kelley and the entire Pulaski Academy football team know it, and they're using it to win football games.www.footballstudyhall.com