This team is fun on paper, but why does it look so bad? | Gopherhole

[Gopherfan84]

Holloman can handle ball pressure and run an offense in his sleep. Very good defender. He didn’t get worked by Bama or Oregon. God love Cal Baptist and UNLV but they ain’t taking Holloman to the woodshed. His wart is him three point shot…

We agree on his 3 point shot. We disagree on his competency to run an offense in his sleep at this level. He got Bama and Oregons worst perimeter defender. He would’ve gotten DePauls best and UNLVs second best.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I’ll plan on January 1 for the next Otzelberger, Shrewsberry, Ben, Smith comparison.

Will start a separate thread so it’s not intertwined with this one.

 

[Roland Brooks]

We agree on his 3 point shot. We disagree on his competency to run an offense in his sleep at this level. He got Bama and Oregons worst perimeter defender. He would’ve gotten DePauls best and UNLVs second best.

Is Bama’s worst perimeter defender better than UNLV’s second best? Is UNLV’s second best better than DePaul’s best?

 

[Roland Brooks]

I have seen Holloman play over 150 games… he ain’t sweating ball pressure

 

[SelectionSunday]

That's fine. I'm simply addressing the people who are trying to compare Johnson to other second year coaches. Why are some comparisons okay and others are not? Why should a guy with plenty of experience get a longer leash than someone who doesn't?

I’m comparing Ben to other second year coaches that I think are reasonable comparisons (location, same conference/power conference, coach with Minnesota connections, etc.). Speaking for myself, I haven’t shot down any comparisons others want to make. It’s a free board.

Nothing nefarious intended. The plan is to continue this for at least a few seasons. Plenty of time to see how these coaches do over an extended period of time at their schools.

 

[Gopherfan84]

Is Bama’s worst perimeter defender better than UNLV’s second best? Is UNLV’s second best better than DePaul’s best?

On the defensive side of the ball I’ll say they isn’t much difference. Bamas guards score better and that’s why they there

 

[Gopherfan84]

I have seen Holloman play over 150 games… he ain’t sweating ball pressure

I’d love him here, but let’s not act like he’s a all B1G starting PG yet. He’s a nice player but he won’t dominate a game or be a big difference for us right now. He’ll defend on ball better than Cooper, offensively he’ll give less.

 

[stocker08]

I’m comparing Ben to other second year coaches that I think are reasonable comparisons (location, same conference/power conference, coach with Minnesota connections, etc.). Speaking for myself, I haven’t shot down any comparisons others want to make. It’s a free board.

Nothing nefarious intended. The plan is to continue this for at least a few seasons. Plenty of time to see how these coaches do over an extended period of time at their schools.

I wasn't referring to you, SS. I was talking about posters who are forming opinions on BJ based upon comparisons to TJ at ISU. Just saying that the straight up comparisons aren't necessarily fair. But if people want to do it....why ignore Craig Smith at Utah....who a lot of posters wanted instead of Johnson.

 

[RockChalk]

I'll agree to disagree on this one. Am I super happy with Gophers right now! No, but I see talent with freshman and see a good class coming in next year. Also I am in the belief that Fox and Ihnen would've provided alot of value. Show growth this year and bring in an experienced guard once season is over and he is building it.

At this point I think OTZ and Ben are fairly close on the recruiting side. On the coaching side I don't think there is a whole lot to compare to. One thing that is a concern regarding Johnson is who he mentored under. The list isn't long nor is it distinguished

 

[SelectionSunday]

I wasn't referring to you, SS. I was talking about posters who are forming opinions on BJ based upon comparisons to TJ at ISU. Just saying that the straight up comparisons aren't necessarily fair. But if people want to do it....why ignore Craig Smith at Utah....who a lot of posters wanted instead of Johnson.

Understood. Agree.

That’s why I included Smith as part of the comparison because he was one of several with the local angle (including Niko Medved).

 

[Gopherfan84]

One thing that is a concern regarding Johnson is who he mentored under. The list isn't long nor is it distinguished

Ben Jacobsen and Tim Miles are the most distinguished as far as guys he’s worked for. It’s a fair point to bring up. Luckily for Ben many others have worked with him and offered support because of Thorsons connections. Nothing can truly help like working the grind daily though.

 

[Blackhammer]

At this point I think OTZ and Ben are fairly close on the recruiting side. On the coaching side I don't think there is a whole lot to compare to. One thing that is a concern regarding Johnson is who he mentored under. The list isn't long nor is it distinguished

Disagree, ISU has more talent without doubt and next years class is one of the best in the country. We are so guard poor It’s ridiculous.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

Iowa State has less wins the year before, but they hardly were in worse shape. They had 3 tournament appearances in 4 years under Prohm and then two bad years. They had a top 40 recruit coming in who stayed (Give Otz some credit here, but Hunter also didn’t want to leave, so he just had to show he cared). Also ISU is a more desirable job currently. Better resources, support, and stadium.

Penn State is a more reasonable comp. Shrewberry worked for Brad Steven’s and Painter. He’s certainly no slouch.

Could the u have hired otzelberger?

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Royce brought the ball up and initiated ISUs offense pretty much anytime he was in the game. If that isn’t a point guard then I don’t know what you call one. He did it at Hopkins and was recruited to do so at MN. I had in’s with the Pulley guys back then. I know what Royce was told when he was committing here.
I just struggle to say PG play and recruitment of them was the issue when we had 4 years of Nolan and brought in the level of guys we did. Im even being nice and not counting Joseph as a PG cause I know he doesn’t fit your definition of it. That was a lot of talent at that position. Again it is sad we didn’t get to reap the rewards of all of most of it, but still had 4/6 years with Nolan who I thought was pretty darn good.

Royce White was not a PG for Iowa St, nor was he ever a PG for the Gophers. Stating that Tubby did a great job recruiting PGs because he recruited Royce White and Justin Cobbs, who never accomplished anything for the Gophers might be one of the most ridiculous things I've seen posted on here.

 

[ecoperson]

Understood. Agree.

That’s why I included Smith as part of the comparison because he was one of several with the local angle (including Niko Medved).

I love your work, Hodger, but I just hope that your readers understand how difficult it is to make comps that hold up to scrutiny. To be most accurate, one would need to include a wide assortment of variables other than those included here and then weight these variables in some fashion.

For example, one might want to include how successful a coach is at winning with the talent they have. One could calculate wins per average player ranking or similar. You'd have to figure out how to address players recruited under a previous coach.

@formerlybis included some interesting analysis with efficiency scores and, rightly, included the year before the new coach for comparison. Of course, the players change every year so one has to determine how to weight that. A coach gets 'credit' for players they recruit but how does one determine what to do with stats from those players they inherited?

Unfortunately, someone could put together a huge spreadsheet of variables and weight them according to a formula agreed upon by 67% of GopherHolers and we would still find that the wins/losses, as expected, are all that matter.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

My whole point is that all comparisons are laughable... and pointless. Each situation is different. There is absolutely NO telling what any other coach would do at MN. There is no telling what Johnson would be doing had he been hired at Directional State.

Johnson never used those phrases as excuses. An excuse would be "I couldn't recruit better players because I 'didn't have any tape to show recruits'." Johnson never excused on the court performance due to this. The second quote you provided is merely expressing his philosophy. It had ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with wins/losses.

We are stuck with this team this year. There are NO opportunities to add any decent players. We have played 6 games! You can either be miserable the rest of the season or jump ship now. Your call!

I agree- we might lose all of the games for the next 2 years and we expect it.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

My whole point is that all comparisons are laughable... and pointless. Each situation is different. There is absolutely NO telling what any other coach would do at MN. There is no telling what Johnson would be doing had he been hired at Directional State.

Johnson never used those phrases as excuses. An excuse would be "I couldn't recruit better players because I 'didn't have any tape to show recruits'." Johnson never excused on the court performance due to this. The second quote you provided is merely expressing his philosophy. It had ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with wins/losses.

We are stuck with this team this year. There are NO opportunities to add any decent players. We have played 6 games! You can either be miserable the rest of the season or jump ship now. Your call!

I'm not miserable, nor will I jump ship. I will watch every Gophers game because I have been a die hard fan my entire life. I just call things how I see them and that's what I post on here. I want to be optimistic about Ben and the program. But what we have seen so far has been worse than I even imagined coming into the season. It's fine to be optimistic, but to be blind to the bad basketball we've seen so far is not based in reality.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

Yeah, it looks like Ben is Pitino with worse players. We have to wait til 2027. Mn should never hire someone that was not hired at n. Ill but oh well.

 

[formerlybis]

I love your work, Hodger, but I just hope that your readers understand how difficult it is to make comps that hold up to scrutiny. To be most accurate, one would need to include a wide assortment of variables other than those included here and then weight these variables in some fashion.

For example, one might want to include how successful a coach is at winning with the talent they have. One could calculate wins per average player ranking or similar. You'd have to figure out how to address players recruited under a previous coach.

@formerlybis included some interesting analysis with efficiency scores and, rightly, included the year before the new coach for comparison. Of course, the players change every year so one has to determine how to weight that. A coach gets 'credit' for players they recruit but how does one determine what to do with stats from those players they inherited?

Unfortunately, someone could put together a huge spreadsheet of variables and weight them according to a formula agreed upon by 67% of GopherHolers and we would still find that the wins/losses, as expected, are all that matter.

Here's the thing - I don't think personnel is as important as you do.

Rutgers and Pikiell didn't have great talent - and lost a lot of games in the first couple of years - but they made a commitment to defense. They have continued to be very good on that end of the floor, with a lot of roster turnover and without top-end talent. Iowa makes offense its thing.

Yes, better players make a difference. No argument. But, MN is unlikely to be able to out-talent the conference very often or consistently. So, pick something to be good at, consistently, regardless of talent.

I just can't tell what Minnesota is aiming for, if anything,

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Now you are worried about some players being so good that they leave early? You are the sort that will win the lottery but then complain about the taxes!

Good players get plucked off of bad teams all of the time. And no, I’d love to win the lottery but I’m not dumb enough to play it.

 

[Gopherfan84]

Royce White was not a PG for Iowa St, nor was he ever a PG for the Gophers.

Fred Hoiberg called him their point guard when I was coaching a team at an ISU camp. He was going to play the same role here at MN. If bringing the ball up and initiating the offense isn’t a PG then what is?

Stating that Tubby did a great job recruiting PGs because he recruited Royce White and Justin Cobbs, who never accomplished anything for the Gophers might be the most ridiculous things I've seen posted on here.

I’m saying Tubby recruited good PGs. He did. They both were here for a year. Sadly their good play was elsewhere. Doesn’t change the fact that he recruited and signed really good PGs. Just didn’t get the reward. I don’t think that is a ridiculous statement at all.

 

[Gopherfan84]

Here's the thing - I don't think personnel is as important as you do.

Rutgers and Pikiell didn't have great talent - and lost a lot of games in the first couple of years - but they made a commitment to defense. They have continued to be very good on that end of the floor, with a lot of roster turnover and without top-end talent. Iowa makes offense its thing.

Yes, better players make a difference. No argument. But, MN is unlikely to be able to out-talent the conference very often or consistently. So, pick something to be good at, consistently, regardless of talent.

I just can't tell what Minnesota is aiming for, if anything,

This is pretty fair as we haven’t been great at anything yet. The roster construction and me just knowing Thorson and having met Ben enough times makes me think we will be defensively focused first, but our play hasn’t shown it yet.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Fred Hoiberg called him their point guard when I was coaching a team at an ISU camp. He was going to play the same role here at MN. If bringing the ball up and initiating the offense isn’t a PG then what is?

I’m saying Tubby recruited good PGs. He did. They both were here for a year. Sadly their good play was elsewhere. Doesn’t change the fact that he recruited and signed really good PGs. Just didn’t get the reward. I don’t think that is a ridiculous statement at all.

Again, how much time did Royce spend guarding other guards? Zero. That doesn't make him a guard because he had other guards to play that role. And yes it's ridiculous to say a coach who is required to recruit players to win on the team he is coaching for, did a good job recruiting players who were good for other teams and not MN.

Maybe we can get Gard to toss a few players who know how to play D and win our way. By your standards WI fans should praise Gard for recruiting good players who made us better.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

Check cashing clock watching coaches for 25 years has placed into this s spot.

 

[Gopherfan84]

Again, how much time did Royce spend guarding other guards? Zero. That doesn't make him a guard because he had other guards to play that role. And yes it's ridiculous to say a coach who is required to recruit players to win on the team he is coaching for, did a good job recruiting players who were good for other teams and not MN.

Maybe we can get Gard to toss a few players who know how to play D and win our way. By your standards WI fans should praise Gard for recruiting good players who made us better.

I first met Gard 14 years ago. One of the best in the business. WI fans should be happy with Gard. I don’t know what that has to do with our PG discussion or “our way”. He’s a very good coach though and his record and standings prove it.

What is a PG to you then?

 

[ecoperson]

I'm not miserable, nor will I jump ship. I will watch every Gophers game because I have been a die hard fan my entire life. I just call things how I see them and that's what I post on here. I want to be optimistic about Ben and the program. But what we have seen so far has been worse than I even imagined coming into the season. It's fine to be optimistic, but to be blind to the bad basketball we've seen so far is not based in reality.

I am glad to hear that you are not jumping ship. We need the die hard fans.

What would you do differently to improve their play? And why do you feel that the coaches aren't doing this?

 

[ecoperson]

Here's the thing - I don't think personnel is as important as you do.

Rutgers and Pikiell didn't have great talent - and lost a lot of games in the first couple of years - but they made a commitment to defense. They have continued to be very good on that end of the floor, with a lot of roster turnover and without top-end talent. Iowa makes offense its thing.

Yes, better players make a difference. No argument. But, MN is unlikely to be able to out-talent the conference very often or consistently. So, pick something to be good at, consistently, regardless of talent.

I just can't tell what Minnesota is aiming for, if anything,

I'm using personnel as merely ONE of the many factors that will impact an accurate coaching comparison. As you said, it certainly makes a difference.

I have not spoken with Johnson and staff but everything I have heard suggests that they want the program to be about playing gritty. To me, this means getting after it on the defensive end and giving an all around effort. Last year's team, for all of their physical limitations seemed to give it their all every minute and scrap away on D. It didn't always lead to wins but they played tough and rarely took a play off.

This season's squad, for one reason or another, is not playing with that mentality. I am attributing that to the team being young and being without their pre-season all conference player for the first 4 games. I can see that something just isn't right and am hoping that this squad can flip the script, gain some confidence, and start performing better.

 

[formerlybis]

I'm using personnel as merely ONE of the many factors that will impact an accurate coaching comparison. As you said, it certainly makes a difference.

I have not spoken with Johnson and staff but everything I have heard suggests that they want the program to be about playing gritty. To me, this means getting after it on the defensive end and giving an all around effort. Last year's team, for all of their physical limitations seemed to give it their all every minute and scrap away on D. It didn't always lead to wins but they played tough and rarely took a play off.

This season's squad, for one reason or another, is not playing with that mentality. I am attributing that to the team being young and being without their pre-season all conference player for the first 4 games. I can see that something just isn't right and am hoping that this squad can flip the script, gain some confidence, and start performing better.

Defensive efficiency is a measure of points given up per possession. It does not matter if you're "gritty" on defense if you're giving up a lot of points. That gritty team from last year was ranked 142nd on defense, next to last in the B1G. That's something that rhymes with gritty meaning akin to excrement.

The point should not be to be merely gritty, but actually effective. The numbers do not lie.

 

[Gopherfan84]

Defensive efficiency is a measure of points given up per possession. It does not matter if you're "gritty" on defense if you're giving up a lot of points. That gritty team from last year was ranked 142nd on defense, next to last in the B1G. That's something that rhymes with gritty meaning akin to excrement.

The point should not be to be merely gritty, but actually effective. The numbers do not lie.

Considering are playing a gap system it does seem like we will be a defense that will try and force the opposing offenses to use the shot clock to get a shot. That of course requires great positioning and defensive rebounding. Neither have been great so far so the rating makes sense

 

[Spaulding!No!]

The games the gophers win Will be the games the 3s drop. Expect last year and every Pitino year to be repeated.