Pete Thamel: Time to face reality: ‘No one is playing college football in the fall’

[Goldmember]

If congress passed Tort protections for schools, colleges, and universities the decision making would be different.

People aren’t worried about losing a case...they’re worried about paying to fight hundreds of cases and settling them because it’s cheaper

Players simply opt-in, and waive their right to litigate for know risks related to pandemic. They can opt-out at any time and quit playing, if they are uncomfortable with precautions.

The player gets their scholarship either way, so, unlike an employment scenario, schools could make it nearly impossible for any attorney to make a solid case that the player’s waiver is invalid.

 

[Some guy]

Players simply opt-in, and waive their right to litigate for know risks related to pandemic. They can opt-out at any time and quit playing, if they are uncomfortable with precautions.

The player gets their scholarship either way, so, unlike an employment scenario, schools could make it nearly impossible for any attorney to make a solid case that the player’s waiver is invalid.

Again, they aren’t worried about losing cases

 

[Some guy]

A school shouldn't be allowed to act negligently and get away with it.

Nope. Which is why there won’t be protections.
Which is why there won’t be regular school unless instructed to have it by the governor

 

[MplsGopher]

Nope. Which is why there won’t be protections.
Which is why there won’t be regular school unless instructed to have it by the governor

Maybe that is the correct thing, if a vaccine is close.

 

[Some guy]

Maybe that is the correct thing, if a vaccine is close.

Yup.
If you could guarantee a widely administered vaccine that was safe and effective by March...no question schools and sports should be for the most part canceled or remote until then.

Problem is even if they are in a late state trial right now:
1) the late stage trial might prove ineffective
2) an effective trial might prove to have a short lifespan of effectiveness
3) it’d be hard to study long term negative side effects after a year if you are going to start widely administering it when the trial is less than a year old

 

[MplsGopher]

Yup.
If you could guarantee a widely administered vaccine that was safe and effective by March...no question schools and sports should be for the most part canceled or remote until then.

Problem is even if they are in a late state trial right now:
1) the late stage trial might prove ineffective
2) an effective trial might prove to have a short lifespan of effectiveness
3) it’d be hard to study long term negative side effects after a year if you are going to start widely administering it when the trial is less than a year old

1 - agreed
2 - this is just a matter of churning out enough doses, for everyone to keep getting boosters every month or two, as needed. If everyone keeps getting it, eventually the virus is wiped off the face of the Earth.
3 - you’re correct, but no way to get around that. Can’t shutdown to wait 20 years. And no drug development had to do that either.

Then you work like hell to make sure people in China limit exposure to bats or whatever other exotic animal was the reservoir, going forward.

 

[Some guy]

1 - agreed
2 - this is just a matter of churning it enough doses, for everyone to keep getting boosters every month or two, as needed
3 - you’re correct, but no way to get around that. Can’t shutdown to wait 20 years. And no drug development had to do that either.

2 and 3 can’t separate

we are going to have no long term studies of the potential side effects in the medium and long term of this dose but we are just going to pump it into 17 year olds every month or two for the next 5 years?

Seems pretty risky when you consider that 17 year old may at very low risk of having serious adverse effects from Covid

 

[MplsGopher]

2 and 3 can’t separate

we are going to have no long term studies of the potential side effects in the medium and long term of this dose but we are just going to pump it into 17 year olds every month or two for the next 5 years?

Seems pretty risky when you consider that 17 year old may at very low risk of having serious adverse effects from Covid

I wasn’t implying a separation. You’re correct on point #3.

Me personally, I vote that the risk of long term negative effects is low enough that it warrants it over the hundreds of thousands of lives that will be lost by doing natural herd immunity, not to mention the unknown risks with of getting infected, debilitating disease, etc.

No easy button, either way.

 

[Some guy]

I wasn’t implying a separation. You’re correct on point #3.

Me personally, I vote that the risk of long term negative effects is low enough that it warrants it over the hundreds of thousands of lives that will be lost by doing natural herd immunity, not to mention the unknown risks with of getting infected, debilitating disease, etc.

No easy button, either way.

I vote that the risk is low enough too.
But it doesn’t matter how we vote. It matters what the risk actually is and we have no idea.

 

[gopheraschells]

I wasn’t implying a separation. You’re correct on point #3.

Me personally, I vote that the risk of long term negative effects is low enough that it warrants it over the hundreds of thousands of lives that will be lost by doing natural herd immunity, not to mention the unknown risks with of getting infected, debilitating disease, etc.

No easy button, either way.

That's easy for you to say, tough to convince a 20 year old who is at very low risk of Covid that they should take a drug with unknown risk to potentially save a bunch of >55 year olds.

 

[FredCoxRocks]

Maybe that is the correct thing, if a vaccine is close.

That should be around mid-November...

 

[MplsGopher]

That's easy for you to say, tough to convince a 20 year old who is at very low risk of Covid that they should take a drug with unknown risk to potentially save a bunch of >55 year olds.

No vaccine, no college/university, no drivers license, no bank account. Etc

Make it painful, but possible if someone wants to be that big of a selfish prick.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Trying to get back to football --

even if this vaccine pans out, it will not pass all the trials, etc until the end of the year. then they have to ramp up production and distribution, so it will be 2021 before people start receiving it.

So, if you're counting on a vaccine to save the football season, it would have to be a Spring football season.

and, from what I've read, this vaccine requires two shots given a month apart - so a lot more logistical challenges.

also, there was one version - the strongest version - that produced some fairly significant side effects, so that version is no longer being tested.

 

[Some guy]

No vaccine, no college/university, no drivers license, no bank account. Etc

Make it painful, but possible if someone wants to be that big of a selfish prick.

So if someone can’t get a vaccine that has unknown risk you want them to not be able to get a drivers license?

is that really a take?

 

[PMWinSTP]

Yup.
If you could guarantee a widely administered vaccine that was safe and effective by March...no question schools and sports should be for the most part canceled or remote until then.

Problem is even if they are in a late state trial right now:
1) the late stage trial might prove ineffective
2) an effective trial might prove to have a short lifespan of effectiveness
3) it’d be hard to study long term negative side effects after a year if you are going to start widely administering it when the trial is less than a year old

Yeah, I would think any would be administered to those most vulnerable first and foremost.

 

[dpodoll68]

There are ways to play safely.

If the Big Ten and other power 5 conferences don’t have a plan to play an 8-game schedule with CCGs and 6-team playoff, it is due to a total lack of effort.

The NBA, NHL, MLS, NFL, and MLB will all be playing soon. And all of these leagues have had vastly more complicated issues to deal with. Playing P5 college football, safely, without fans, should be very easy.

Almost as easy as having a functioning signature.

 

[PMWinSTP]

So if someone can’t get a vaccine that has unknown risk you want them to not be able to get a drivers license?

is that really a take?

It wasn't a very well thought out post...

 

[MplsGopher]

So if someone can’t get a vaccine that has unknown risk you want them to not be able to get a drivers license?

is that really a take?

What is can’t get?

I thought it was clear I was talking only about people who refuse to take it even when widely available. Sorry if that wasn’t clear.


It’s not any different than you have to have your children vaccinated to go to public school.

 

[MplsGopher]

Trying to get back to football --

even if this vaccine pans out, it will not pass all the trials, etc until the end of the year. then they have to ramp up production and distribution, so it will be 2021 before people start receiving it.

So, if you're counting on a vaccine to save the football season, it would have to be a Spring football season.

and, from what I've read, this vaccine requires two shots given a month apart - so a lot more logistical challenges.

also, there was one version - the strongest version - that produced some fairly significant side effects, so that version is no longer being tested.

I think the OP makes it pretty clear that there is no football to “get back to”.

 

[GoldenRodents]

That’s not what you were referring to.

Maybe that is the correct thing, if a vaccine is close.

No way I'm taking a vaccine that's only been tested 6 months. Google the CEO of Merck on this.

 

[howeda7]

I'm going with no football this fall for Pandemicstan ( ariz, California, Texas and Florida). Big ten still has a chance, but we have to wear masks. if we can do that for a month, we can bring this beast under control and move on with our lives.

I predict that once one of the Power 5 pulls the plug, they all will. Just those 3 states eliminates 4 of the 5. The B1G will not press on alone.

 

[GoldenRodents]

If you're 56 years old, you don't matter, says @GoldenRodents . What, you think you have 20-25 good years left?? Who gives a s___ ???

What a douche thing to say.

So you can't imagine other policy options for a mildly lethal pandemic?

The over 55's face risk, that's why they should be hiding out until the young and strong achieve herd immunity. Maybe you should bow out of this discussions, your nerve endings aren't moving the discussion forward.

 

[MplsGopher]

No way I'm taking a vaccine that's only been tested 6 months. Google the CEO of Merck on this.

If it’s widely available at some point within a year from now, and you still refuse, I support and will vote for harsh penalties and restrictions on you and your household’s quality of life.

No new bank/financial accounts can be opened (no new loans), no new government issued licenses (hunting/fishing, drivers etc), no public school of any kind, etc, for everyone in your household.

 

[howeda7]

If it’s widely available at some point within a year from now, and you still refuse, I support and will vote for harsh penalties and restrictions on you and your household’s quality of life.

No new bank/financial accounts can be opened (no new loans), no new government issued licenses (hunting/fishing, drivers etc), no public school of any kind, etc, for everyone in your household.

You're way over the top. As with any vaccine, there will be some people with immune issues for whom the risk is not worth it. At most it will be required to enroll in public school as other vaccines are. The rest of your list is silly.

 

[MplsGopher]

You're way over the top. As with any vaccine, there will be some people with immune issues for whom the risk is not worth it. At most it will be required to enroll in public school as other vaccines are. The rest of your list is silly.

You give one example that is easily accommodated and rare.

To me that is silly, to use as the basis for unlimited accommodation.

If 50% of the population refuses to take it, and the vaccine only gives immunity for some number of months, don’t you see how that renders the effort pointless?

Whereas, if the whole world achieves immunity in relative synchrony, that eradicated the virus.

Maybe it is silly, but I don’t think. And as I said, I’ll vote for that, when the stakes are this high.

 

[Nax5]

You're way over the top. As with any vaccine, there will be some people with immune issues for whom the risk is not worth it. At most it will be required to enroll in public school as other vaccines are. The rest of your list is silly.

In general, I agree. Unless we are talking about GoldenRodents. As I fully expect them to willfully put other people in danger, based on their attitude throughout this whole thing.

 

[The prez sez]

I predict that once one of the Power 5 pulls the plug, they all will. Just those 3 states eliminates 4 of the 5. The B1G will not press on alone.

If the Big ten turns out to be the only conference playing games this fall, ratings would be off the charts and that would very enticing (if health and safety concerns could be met).

 

[gopher7]

I suspect the college kids will still socialize and spread it to their each other, their family and coworkers as they are currently doing with school out of session. The difference, should the universities cancel campus classes and sports, will be the schools will be off the hook for liability of their paid staff and vulnerable student populations which, let’s face it is the primary concern.

That's what I was thinking. Canceling sports is sort of pointless if there are still classes and parties. From the little we've seen so far, younger people are not exactly the poster children of how to social distance. It may not spread through playing football, but it will spread other ways without another lockdown.

 

[BroncoRedux]

JMHO, A vaccine, even if proven to be effective against covid-19, will not be adopted by enough Americans to make it work. Sadly, my barber knows more about science than the men and women with the degrees. Even more pathetic, people listen to him because really, what good are those pinheads? They've been wrong on this and that. Vaccines cause all bad things and provide no protections. My barber has appointments available tomorrow if you want addition schooling. God help us.

 

[scools12]

Thamel, Pat Forde and Dan Wetzel do the The Yahoo College Sports Podcast. It’s a good listen.

Most recent episode is on this subject. The only one holding out the slightest of hope is Wetzel. From what I heard on the pod it’s basically over. No way they start in the fall.