Pete Thamel: Time to face reality: ‘No one is playing college football in the fall’

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MplsGopher said:
People don't get to do whatever they want with their life. Laws prevent me from walking into your house and walking off with your TV.

So that's a silly argument.

If enough people demand a law that places restrictions/penalties on people who refuse to take the covid vaccine, then that law would be just as valid as any other.


I doubt the ninth amendment applies, either. Though I'm sure someone would try to sue claiming it does.
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All I said was that people are gonna do what they wanna do. I didn't say that there wouldn't be consequences for what they choose. Good effort though 😏
 

GopherGuy8 said:
All I said was that people are gonna do what they wanna do. I didn't say that there wouldn't be consequences for what they choose. Good effort though 😏
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That’s correct.

So there should be modest consequences for refusing to take the vaccine.
 

MplsGopher said:
That’s correct.

So there should be modest consequences for refusing to take the vaccine.
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Modest is one thing, taking away the ability to earn a living is idiotic and extreme. It would be no different if I said we should make everyone have their reproductive organs detached (Vasectomy, tubal ligation) so you cannot have kids without proof of employment, proof of no drug use, Etc. It's too extreme. We are not talking Ebola or the plague here. This is a disease that is not an end game. A new and by all means poorly tested, vaccine is not high on a lot of people’s list to get forced into.
 






MplsGopher said:
Except NYC probably only has around 25% of its population with antibodies. No one knows for sure what % is needed for herd, but guessing higher than that. Meaning there could be a resurgence in NYC, Sweden, or Florida/Texas/Cali even after their current spike simmers down.

And the link posted showing that antibodies drop significantly after 3mo.

Means we’re only going to get rid of this thing with a massive, successful vaccine effort, one day.

Only question is how soon that day comes.
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They are unfortunately finding the antibodies fade after a few months making herd immunity (70% needed and would result in millions of deaths) nearly impossible to achieve.
 

CoMn said:
They are unfortunately finding the antibodies fade after a few months making herd immunity (70% needed and would result in millions of deaths) nearly impossible to achieve.
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A few months would be long enough, if the infections could race through the population fast enough.

Make the assumptions that:
- infections go fast enough that we can reasonably assume all people already infected are immune to new infection
- only adults can be infected, so 250M adult population in the country
- actual IFR is 0.3%

At 60% infected, that's 450k deaths. At 70% infected, that's 525k deaths.


So we're still talking an additional 300k-375k deaths. No one (hopefully) wants that. But it wouldn't be millions.
 



Bottom line - unless the case numbers go way down in the next 3 or 4 weeks, I just don't see any way that college football will be played this fall.

Too many issues with testing, travel, etc.

Maybe - if a vaccine is found in time - there could be some kind of a spring football season - conf games only, no bowl games, etc. but even that has issues - a lot of players who are eligible for the NFL draft might sit out to avoid injury.

it stinks. but I'm afraid that's what we're looking at.
 

CoMn said:
They are unfortunately finding the antibodies fade after a few months making herd immunity (70% needed and would result in millions of deaths) nearly impossible to achieve.
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So it's never going to go away, just like the flu never goes away, even with a vaccine. We just have to deal with it. Makes a lot of sense.
 


Taji34 said:
But, if a driver's license is a constitutional right, doesn't that mean it's illegal to deny me a driver's license?
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It is illegal to deny someone the right to education. Was what I was referring to. Supreme Court precedent has upheld this idea.

I don’t know any case law on drivers
 



MplsGopher said:
Of course, that was not at all the point of the ninth amendment. But people similarly pervert the first two amendments to suit their agendas.
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The purpose of the 9th amendment was that you have rights even if not specifically listed in the constitution.
What do you think the purpose of the 9th was?
 





Things will look completely different in 2-3 months. I would suggest a delay rather than outright cancellation is probably the correct path. There is a new body of knowledge around COVID-19 that suggests a typical exponential rise then a rapid decrease to a low level of endemic activity. See NYC, Sweden, UK, Italy, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Spain. The conventional wisdom around herd immunity and antibodies may not be correct for this particular disease and virus.

Cancel only if necessary and without any alternative.
 

SARSCOV2 is now no more deadly than a typical flu season, in Sweden there has only been one death in the last 2 weeks...

PROTECT THE VULNERABLE: those over 70 with co-morbid conditions

PLAY FOOTBALL IN FRONT OF FULL STADIUMS ! ! !

1595085697353.png
 


Pompous Elitist said:
Things will look completely different in 2-3 months. I would suggest a delay rather than outright cancellation is probably the correct path. There is a new body of knowledge around COVID-19 that suggests a typical exponential rise then a rapid decrease to a low level of endemic activity. See NYC, Sweden, UK, Italy, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Spain. The conventional wisdom around herd immunity and antibodies may not be correct for this particular disease and virus.

Cancel only if necessary and without any alternative.
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We do have an alternative, though. It's called "vaccine will be here at the end of the year, then this is over".

That's how it's being played, anyway.
 

GoldenRodents said:
SARSCOV2 is now no more deadly than a typical flu season, in Sweden there has only been one death in the last 2 weeks...

PROTECT THE VULNERABLE: those over 70 with co-morbid conditions

PLAY FOOTBALL IN FRONT OF FULL STADIUMS ! ! !

View attachment 8790
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NYC is vastly more dense than Sweden (or even just Stockholm), hence why it had higher deaths.

NY inherits all those deaths, so you're really just mostly looking at NYC deaths in this graph.


But of course, the point of the graph is to be dishonest and misleading. That's typically how the internet works. No attempt was made to find a state that was a better match than NY.
 



MplsGopher said:
But that's so soon, in the grand scheme of things, that people may just say screw it let's see.
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I think we can all agree people like Stefan “ You can pry my unproven good bones pet theory from my COVID-infested claw”Gildemeister MA and the boys down at the U should have a minimal part in what’s to come.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I think we can all agree people like Stefan “ You can pry my unproven good bones pet theory from my COVID-infested claw”Gildemeister MA and the boys down at the U should have a minimal part in what’s to come.
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I’m talking about decision makers.
 

MplsGopher said:
No vaccine, no college/university, no drivers license, no bank account. Etc

Make it painful, but possible if someone wants to be that big of a selfish prick.
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Wonder who you would think were being selfish pricks if you were in the 17 year old cohort.
 

Sieg Heil!
MplsGopher said:
Why would a new law be required? The state government (some agency, I presume) already has the authority to create requirements to apply for a license.

Such as, you need to be 16 years old. That’s no less arbitrary than requiring proof of covid vaccination.

Furthermore, I would like the state dept of health to establish a database of every Minnesotan who has been vaccinated and the date, for easy lookup.
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MplsGopher said:
NYC is vastly more dense than Sweden (or even just Stockholm), hence why it had higher deaths.

NY inherits all those deaths, so you're really just mostly looking at NYC deaths in this graph.


But of course, the point of the graph is to be dishonest and misleading. That's typically how the internet works. No attempt was made to find a state that was a better match than NY.
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Arizona, Texas and Florida are good examples that this is like a bad flu season. The hospitals are full, the death rate is similar to a bad flu season. The infections are up but not deadly, public health interventions like quarantines and lock-downs should never happen unless hospitals are overwhelmed (they're not anywhere in the USA).

To the StartTribune's credit, they are finally putting this at the end of their COVID articles:

"Health problems that increase COVID-19 risks range from lung disease and serious heart conditions to severe obesity and diabetes. People undergoing treatment for failing kidneys also run a greater risk, as do those with cancer and other conditions where treatments suppress immune systems.

Most patients with COVID-19 don't need to be hospitalized. The illness usually causes mild or moderate sickness; studies suggest that up to 45% of those who are infected won't have symptoms."
 

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