PAC 12 Dissolution

The big ten will be a 4 division conference of 32 teams in 3-4 years. Its all moving towards a mega conference.

Norte dame, throw in some ACC, the best of what’s left in the West, and ST THOMAS! Whoa, could it happen?
 


Athletic success isn't the issue with Stanford. The issue is nobody turns on the television to watch Stanford.
Correct.
And cal is worse plus take away athletic success
 

Stanford is a financial loser. There's a reason they're not already in the Big Ten.

It shouldn't be hard to understand.

I don’t know that it’s as cut and dried as some say. Stanford had been excellent under Harbaugh and Shaw with some of the best players in the country and were absolutely awesome to watch. They don’t have a great student-led football tradition like a similar sized school in Notre Dame but they have a large media market and decent viewership…and fair weather fans. Fair to wonder what the numbers might look like with Shaw gone. Obviously the numbers guys running the spreadsheets think Stanford and Cal failed to make the cut in some way, shape, or form. I think their exclusion is bad for the sport, the spirit of college athletics, and is bad juju in general.

This came out after the SEC smash and grab of the Big 12 and Big 10 of PAC 12:


  1. The departures of USC and UCLA are “not as catastrophic” for the Pac-12 as the departures of Texas and Oklahoma will be for the Big 12.
  2. Oregon is the biggest draw out of any team in the future versions of either the Pac-12 or Big 12, but perhaps in a surprise, Stanford is ahead of No. 3 Washington. Washington State, Colorado and Utah of the Pac-12 have also had better ratings than any Big 12 school (Oklahoma State leads the way).
  3. All schools in the Pac-12 have averaged over 1.2 million viewers per game except Arizona and Oregon State, which have averaged 815,000 and 723,000, respectively.
  4. “Pac-12 After Dark” could help save the conference. To illustrate this point, Mandel noted that in 2021, conference teams appeared on 12 ESPN games that started at 10 p.m. ET or later. Those 12 games averaged 1.34 million viewers, and only two didn’t break a million.
  5. In his final catch-all point, Mandel wrote that “the Pac-12 may be in better shape than one would have assumed three weeks ago — provided it can keep the remaining 10 schools together,” and that ESPN will “likely” offer an “enticing” TV deal, even if doesn’t come “anywhere close” to the deals the Big Ten and SEC will get.
Mandel’s final paragraph: “Like the Pac-12, the rebuilt Big 12 is to be determined. But based on the ratings numbers in this story, it’s hard to see why the Pac-12 would be in a weaker position.”

Here is how the Pac-12 and Big 12 schools have ranked in TV ratings for games Mandel examined since 2015:

  1. Oregon.
  2. Stanford.
  3. Washington.
  4. Washington State.
  5. Colorado.
  6. Utah.
  7. Oklahoma State.
  8. Cal.
  9. TCU.
  10. Arizona State.
  11. West Virginia.
  12. Baylor.
  13. Iowa State.
  14. Texas Tech.
  15. Arizona.
  16. Kansas State.
  17. Oregon State.
  18. Kansas.


 

Correct.
And cal is worse plus take away athletic success
Pretty short sighted. As a Gopher fan, I'll take those wins like with Rutgers. Cal has an endowment three times the size of the U, brings in $1B in research dollars yearly, and is ranked #1 overall in public universities. Pretty good potential addition to the B1G Consortium.
 
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Pretty short sighted. As a Gopher fan, I'll take those wins like with Rutgers. Cal has an endowment three time the size of the U, brings in $1B in research dollars yearly, and is ranked #1 overall in public universities. Pretty good potential addition to the B1G Consortium.
There are benefits to cal. But when the whole thing is about money. They bring none
 

There are benefits to cal. But when the whole thing is about money. They bring none
Helps lock up the NorCal market, appeases the rivalry issue with UCLA, adds another west coast team for scheduling, and adds the top public university to the B1G.
 

I understand there is no going back and further expansion is inevitable, but it saddens me to see the PAC 10/12 go away as we knew it. Was a great, fun conference and I always enjoyed the late afternoon/night after Gophers were over.
Totally agree with this, man. That was a foundational conference going all the way back to 1915, with so much history and tradition, and to see it so rapidly end like this, it is shocking, it's disappointing, and it is very, very sad.

I was reading an article by Stewart Mandel this morning talking about how it was just 12 years ago this coming November when ESPN Gameday was broadcasting from Palo Alto as the #3, undefeated Cardinal hosted #6 Oregon, with that 2011 season ending with three of the top six teams in America being members of the Pac-10. And it was just a year earlier, in 2010, with both Nebraska and Missouri having privately expressed interest in the Big 10, that it looked for all the world (and came so very, very, very close to actually happening) as if the PAC-10 was going to become the PAC-16, with Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Colorado all being extended invites, and it was only at the last minute that Texas AD Deloss Dodds changed his mind and the whole endeavor collapsed. That would have been the end of the Big-12 and the beginning of the first true super-conference (and an absolute beast it would have been), but such was not to be and here we are 13 years later with the PAC-12 having ended while the Big-12 carries on. It's crazy...

The league was simply a victim of just epic mismanagement over the past 15 years, with its fatal flaw being its inability (and frankly, unwillingness) to find a distribution partner to carry its PAC 12 network, with its bizarre configuration of seven channels. That left the league just incredibly vulnerable to the vagaries of the broadcast market, and here we are with the result. It is sad.

The true victims here are Washington State and Oregon State (Stanford and Cal will ultimately be fine, and have both been approached by the ACC about possible membership), as they are the red-headed stepchildren without a home and with very few options, none of them good. For now at least, their Apple Cup and Civil War rivalry games with Washington and Oregon respectively will continue, but beyond that, things look incredibly bleak. They may have no hope but to find a home in the Mountain West Conference, which would mean they'd be going from a fiscal year 2022 payout of $37 million from the PAC-12 to a Mountain West distribution of $6.6 million, which would leave them no choice but to slash sports. They did nothing wrong, but they've been left to a brutal fate.
 

Helps lock up the NorCal market, appeases the rivalry issue with UCLA, adds another west coast team for scheduling, and adds the top public university to the B1G.
The first thing you said relates to money but I’m not sure it’s true

If Stanford in, cal adds zero IMO FINANCIALLY
 




I keep seeing mentions on Twitter from various sources of Stanford and Cal talking to the ACC.

I don't get it. as far as I understand, adding teams would not allow the ACC to re-do the GOR. I believe that new teams would have to agree to the existing GOR. I'm not sure about the impact on the TV deal - whether adding 2 teams would allow the conference to re-negotiate its TV contracts.

this could come down to - Stanford and Cal have to go somewhere, and apparently they think the ACC is a better option than the Mountain West. which is probably true.
 

I keep seeing mentions on Twitter from various sources of Stanford and Cal talking to the ACC.

I don't get it. as far as I understand, adding teams would not allow the ACC to re-do the GOR. I believe that new teams would have to agree to the existing GOR. I'm not sure about the impact on the TV deal - whether adding 2 teams would allow the conference to re-negotiate its TV contracts.

this could come down to - Stanford and Cal have to go somewhere, and apparently they think the ACC is a better option than the Mountain West. which is probably true.
I could see Stanford and Cal trying to use this as a bargaining chip with the B1G, a "Hey, if you ever want us to join, you gotta get us now before the ACC does" type deal.
 

Don’t think anyone knows where this wheel stops spinning. For years. Some who move now may move again. TV is in control. They will have to fix the scheduling messes. We need a SE footprint. ACC the easiest victim of that move.
 



This list indicates you're right. Stanford and California were the 45th and 47th most viewed teams last year in the regular season. What's even more surprising to me is that Arizona at 62 and ASU at 71 were even way behind that.


copy the URL, couldn't get the link to work:
...https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd
I thought I remembered the Gophers being higher on this list before, and it hurt my stomach to see us below Northwestern (if only by a few thousand). I was right -- but that was a year earlier in 2021. The link below is the same source but from a year earlier. Minnesota is 24th, averaging 1.28 million (far ahead of Northwestern, who was at 48, among others), before dropping to 37th/1.05 million last year.

All this to say that schools are probably pretty much in the same group overall but can vary quite a bit year-to-year. I assume the schedule and a few wins have a lot to do with that; if you play a couple of the top dogs or in prime time one year you get a boost that might go away the next.

 

I thought I remembered the Gophers being higher on this list before, and it hurt my stomach to see us below Northwestern (if only by a few thousand). I was right -- but that was a year earlier in 2021. The link below is the same source but from a year earlier. Minnesota is 24th, averaging 1.28 million (far ahead of Northwestern, who was at 48, among others), before dropping to 37th/1.05 million last year.

All this to say that schools are probably pretty much in the same group overall but can vary quite a bit year-to-year. I assume the schedule and a few wins have a lot to do with that; if you play a couple of the top dogs or in prime time one year you get a boost that might go away the next.


Yeah, I was thinking the same. The Gopher schedule last year was terrible for attracting viewers so it negatively impacted them.
 

Don’t think anyone knows where this wheel stops spinning. For years. Some who move now may move again. TV is in control. They will have to fix the scheduling messes. We need a SE footprint. ACC the easiest victim of that move.
 

Stanford averages less than 30k a game and doesn’t draw big tv ratings

You’re right though, they kick ass at fencing
I guess a moron would look at it that way. What would Tiger say?
 

Stanford maybe if Norte Dame wants it.

Cal, no way. They don't offer accretive revenue. They'd be a leech.

The name of the games is re revenue growth not academic prestige.
Realdoghuskies.com makes sense.

”By the 2026 season both Stanford and Notre Dame will join the Big 10 Conference,” the source said. With those two universities joining the Big 10's expansion would likely be completed. Those moves coincided with the expiration is Notre Dame's football-exclusive TV contract with NBC.”
 



I guess a moron would look at it that way. What would Tiger say?
I guess all the conferences that haven’t invited them yet are morons. Because that’s exactly why they don’t have an invite
 

No, the Big Ten will not jump in. Those schools are money drains

The ACC is foolish for even considering them. It'll only add cost and complexity. There's no money to be made.

The ACC is trying to die
It also proves that B1G is not interested in Stanford right now.
 

Realdoghuskies.com makes sense.

”By the 2026 season both Stanford and Notre Dame will join the Big 10 Conference,” the source said. With those two universities joining the Big 10's expansion would likely be completed. Those moves coincided with the expiration is Notre Dame's football-exclusive TV contract with NBC.”
Stanford wouldn't be trying to get into ACC if this was true.
 

It also proves that B1G is not interested in Stanford right now.
Big ten isn’t interested in any ONE right now.

Going to 10 games is expensive short term.
Going to 8 games isn’t what they agreed to in the contract.


A 19 team conference is mathematically not able to play a 9 game conference schedule.
So even if they want Stanford, they need a second.
 

The big ten will be a 4 division conference of 32 teams in 3-4 years. Its all moving towards a mega conference.

Norte dame, throw in some ACC, the best of what’s left in the West, and ST THOMAS! Whoa, could it happen?
At some point, it becomes a league instead of a conference.
 

Given how events have unfolded the last week or so even the best journalists have been guessing on future events, no matter what official lines from interested parties are. I’d guess there are all kinds of negotiations going on between conferences, their revenue shares, timelines that could culminate in a vote very quickly. Lots of smoke, difficult to see clearly…
 

At some point, it becomes a league instead of a conference.
Yes. Basically the big ten and SEC are slowly buying up the valuable assets from the pac 12, big 12, and I predict eventually the ACC

Even schools like Utah, ASU, Kansas, would all leave immediately to join one of the big two if asked
 

It also proves that B1G is not interested in Stanford right now.
If Stanford calls, B1G picks up and sees what kind of influence Stanford has on Notre Dame.
 

If Stanford calls, B1G picks up and sees what kind of influence Stanford has on Notre Dame.
It also depends on where they think it rounds out.
If 20. Stanford only in if they bring notre dame. Cal no shot.

If 24. Stanford has a much better shot.
If 28. Cal has a shot.

I also think the big ten might be content at 18 until 2032 or so. It’s only 7-8 more years. And breaking up the ACC in 2032 you only have to settle a few years of their contract. Not 13


In retrospect Warren was really asleep at the wheel. The big ten should’ve offered Texas and Oklahoma full membership starting in 2024


The league would be at 20 right now and likely done.
 
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