MrJ --
Regression?? We have the highest RPI rating we've ever had since they invented the RPI. How is that regression?!
And we have gotten to this point with NO BENCH whatsoever.
So we literally live or die according to our starting 5, almost without exception. 3 of them show up to play, we win. 2 of them show up to play, well, then its a toss up. Only 1 shows up, we lose. Of if they simply give up like it seems they did today, we lose.
I understand that being outscored by 37 points after going up by 16 is well, words escape me actually, BUT...
A quick look at the Sagarin Ratings of the teams who have beaten us will show you that we are winning the games we should and losing the games we should, with 3 exceptions. The two Illinois games are flip-flopped, but that is easily explained by simply looking at their 3 point shooting percentages in those 2 games.
That leaves us with the one bad loss, the NW game. But still, it was a ROAD game. And NW did also beat Baylor and one other Top 50 RPI team on the ROAD this year. So its not like we were the only team to lose a bad game. And Kansas losing to TCU was ten times as worse of a loss.
So we are probably going to lose our next two games. We might have to be happy to finish 8-10 in regular conf play.
But then the 2nd season starts. First the BTT, then the NCAA tournament.
UConn went into a Big East tournament as the 9th seed in the tourney. Won the tourney, went into the NCAA tourney as a #3 seed and went on to win the NCAA Championship.
Not saying thats what we are going to do, but if UConn could do that after their horrible conf season, there is still hope that we could make the tourney and get to the Sweet 16 or maybe even the Elite 8.
Hey, Tubby could coach us into an NIT first round loss, too. Not predicting anything. Just saying that both possibilities are about equally likely.