Official: Big Ten is going to a conference-only season, playing 10 games

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hello-world said:
Well, they've been to 4 of 6 of the championship games so far and Northwestern / Iowa aren't going to challenge them this year.
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Their chances of winning aren't 8 times greater than MN. They aren't even 8 times greater than Nebraska. I'd say 40% Wisconsin, 30% Minnesota, 30% field.
 

howeda7 said:
Their chances of winning aren't 8 times greater than MN. They aren't even 8 times greater than Nebraska. I'd say 40% Wisconsin, 30% Minnesota, 30% field.
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You're wrong but okay.
 


howeda7 said:
Having such an arogant degree of certainty over a team that lost to Illinois last year is....interesting.
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It's because stats say I'm probably closer to right than wrong.

Number of times a team shares the B1G West lead over 10,000 simulated seasons using SP+ predictions:
- Wisconsin: 9,753
- Minnesota: 2,091
- Nebraska: 620
- Iowa: 280
- Purdue: 53
- Northwestern: 36
- Illinois: 2

I'm not saying that 2018 Wisconsin won't show up again this year, it's absolutely possible, but pretty unlikely, and it would require the stat heads to be way off on their predictions for this Wisconsin team.
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
This is a lifetime of disappointments backing this statement, but why do I already have the sinking feeling that years from now, we're going to be talking about where the program might have gone to had Covid not derailed the 2020 season.
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Right there with you though I think it’s actually mildly bullish competitively if the whole season gets shelved for everyone. We get to sit on great results for another year while PJF Zoomcruits.

Gophs not playing when other P5 does is a setback. Gophs not playing when B1G rivals do sets us back a decade. Today’s solidarity makes that doom outcome less likely.
 


I don't care about the statistics going into a year with so many ???. I give Wisconsin a big edge to win the conference over Minnesota until I actually see the Gophers win it just once. It's a huge hurdle to get over.
 

Statement that there will even be a season...

Progress.
 

I'd feel so bad for y'all if you qualified for the Rose Bowl finally or the CFP only to have it not happen.
 




iowa said:
I'd feel so bad for y'all if you qualified for the Rose Bowl finally or the CFP only to have it not happen.
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Instead of our moment in the Pasadena sun, we'll be watching a hacked NCAA Football 14 simulation of Minnesota - Oregon State on ABC during shoveling breaks.
 

I'm going with Indiana for our extra game. Another reason in addition to the ones already posted, it's a ten hour bus ride from Bloomington versus something like 12 hours from Columbus. Okay, not much, but I'm grabbing every edge we can to get Indiana here versus the Suckeys.
 

I feel horrible for these smaller schools, this could really devastate D1 sports.
 

hello-world said:
It's because stats say I'm probably closer to right than wrong.

Number of times a team shares the B1G West lead over 10,000 simulated seasons using SP+ predictions:
- Wisconsin: 9,753
- Minnesota: 2,091
- Nebraska: 620
- Iowa: 280
- Purdue: 53
- Northwestern: 36
- Illinois: 2

I'm not saying that 2018 Wisconsin won't show up again this year, it's absolutely possible, but pretty unlikely, and it would require the stat heads to be way off on their predictions for this Wisconsin team.
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Do stats really mean much from last year with teams changing so much? Wisconsin was fortunate to win the west last year, I don’t view them as being for sure better this year.
 



hello-world said:
That's tricky because we also don't get any revenue from the game so Minnesota would just take a $2 million bath to keep FAU ($1.2M), BYU ($300K), and TNTC ($450K) above water. I imagine that Minnesota is not going to pay and get sued.

I don't understand why Minnesota paid BYU in the first place. They are a big time program and generate more than enough revenue on their own. Plus we travel there next year.
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Well hopefully we won't get sued. I'm sure there is a cancellation clause in the contract or a minimum amount payable if a game doesn't happen.
 

Word said:
Especially early in the season where things are more unpredictable.
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Which to me gets back to: it would be a risky game for Ohio St to add, and hence why would the conf so that to its top CFP candidate?

I’m going with Indiana or Rutgers.
 

Jimbo Slice said:
I saw that ND would likely be in the mix with the ACC this year, since they already have 6 games scheduled against ACC opponents. Wondering what would happen to the other independents though.
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American could try to work with Army? Since they already have Navy.
 

hello-world said:
Yup, we kinda screwed over BYU here.
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Wonder if they’d trudge back to the Mountain West for a year? Especially if one of the California State teams (San Jose, Fresno, San Diego) cancels football for the year?
 

goldengophers said:
I feel horrible for these smaller schools, this could really devastate D1 sports.
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I still just don’t see why one year has to complete close up shop forever. Can they just suspend the program for a year and then restart it. Seems silly.
 


MplsGopher said:
American could try to work with Army? Since they already have Navy.
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That would make a lot of sense. American is not that far off from the lesser power-5 conferences, and they have an odd number of teams. Seems like a win-win. Plus, it would be a shame if Army-Navy wasn't played, one of my favorite games to watch every year.
 

Michigan State has already removed its entire 2020 schedule from its website, not just the non-conference games.

That leads me to believe there will be some reshuffling of conference game dates.
 

It would have been fun if the B1G said 13 league games, round robin, no bowls, conference championship games, or playoffs. Just everyone vs everyone and whomever ends up on top wins.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Michigan State has already removed its entire 2020 schedule from its website, not just the non-conference games.

That leads me to believe there will be some reshuffling of conference game dates.
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Sounds like they want to front-load the division games. My guess is the whole order of games gets scrapped, we end up with Penn State added as a home game in a rematch of the greatest game ever (bc it's done by 2019 standings for competitive balance), and open with Iowa or Wisconsin.
 

howeda7 said:
Having such an arogant degree of certainty over a team that lost to Illinois last year is....interesting.
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I have no certainty but that team that lost to Illinois boat raced us at home.
 

jrb27 said:
Man I live 15 mins from beaver stadium i.would love to whoop that ass again
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Except the game would be at Minnesota. PSU already has 5 home games and Minnesota has 4.
 

fmlizard said:
Sounds like they want to front-load the division games. My guess is the whole order of games gets scrapped, we end up with Penn State added as a home game in a rematch of the greatest game ever (bc it's done by 2019 standings for competitive balance), and open with Iowa or Wisconsin.
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no basis in reality.
 



MplsGopher said:
I still just don’t see why one year has to complete close up shop forever. Can they just suspend the program for a year and then restart it. Seems silly.
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You mean just tell all the coaches to go work at Burger King for a year? Tell all the scholarship athletes to drop out of school for a year? The majority of the expenses can’t be suspended. Athletic department can’t just go home without pay. No games, no revenue but the bills don’t change much.
 

highwayman said:
There’s no rumor of such except from you.

Indiana at Minnesota September 26 far more likely. Both now have byes that week and Indiana already has 5 home games. OSU plays that week.

Minnesota’s other bye week Nov 14 only NW is off and they play each other the next week.

The only week where everyone can play Is September 12. A full slate of games could be played. OSU would be in the mix. Can’t believe the B1G would play in December.
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Uh, the first three weeks of September are mostly open for everyone now. That's likely when the 10th game will be added.
 

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