MLB Hot Stove League = Player Movement & Innuendo

GophersInIowa

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Even when he came back late this past season, he was nowhere near the form he had in April. I'm not advocating letting him go, but there are certainly valid reasons to not going all in long term.
He had a .966 OPS in 29 games in September/October. Not the ridiculous numbers he was putting up in April but still really good.

I don’t think a big contract is really that risky. Even if he just played 100 games a year, he adds so much value in those 100 games that it really wouldn’t be that big of a deal. Obviously we’re better if he plays 140+.
 

howeda7

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Even when he came back late this past season, he was nowhere near the form he had in April. I'm not advocating letting him go, but there are certainly valid reasons to not going all in long term.
The April/May #'s were not human. He was never going to maintain that over any long duration. He was still really good when he came back, even with a rough first week or two.
 

Ope3

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He had a .966 OPS in 29 games in September/October. Not the ridiculous numbers he was putting up in April but still really good.

I don’t think a big contract is really that risky. Even if he just played 100 games a year, he adds so much value in those 100 games that it really wouldn’t be that big of a deal. Obviously we’re better if he plays 140+.
The April/May #'s were not human. He was never going to maintain that over any long duration. He was still really good when he came back, even with a rough first week or two.
Fair enough.
 

forever a gopher

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He had a .966 OPS in 29 games in September/October. Not the ridiculous numbers he was putting up in April but still really good.

I don’t think a big contract is really that risky. Even if he just played 100 games a year, he adds so much value in those 100 games that it really wouldn’t be that big of a deal. Obviously we’re better if he plays 140+.
The point being hammered over and over is he doesn’t even play 100 games. To assume the floor with him is 100 games “even if he just played 100 games” is just foolish. I don’t care it’s not a recurring injury. You have 7 years of MLB data, which is more than enough to know what you’re buying. He has essentially played in half the games, not 100 a year.

This really shouldn’t be that complicated. Take what he’s worth at full health, then multiply by somewhere between .5 and .6, and that’s his base contract. The remainder can be earned in incentives via plate appearances. Fair for both parties. If he thinks he can get some other team to pay him full price with his history, he can become their albatross on the bench.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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The point being hammered over and over is he doesn’t even play 100 games. To assume the floor with him is 100 games “even if he just played 100 games” is just foolish. I don’t care it’s not a recurring injury. You have 7 years of MLB data, which is more than enough to know what you’re buying. He has essentially played in half the games, not 100 a year.

This really shouldn’t be that complicated. Take what he’s worth at full health, then multiply by somewhere between .5 and .6, and that’s his base contract. The remainder can be earned in incentives via plate appearances. Fair for both parties. If he thinks he can get some other team to pay him full price with his history, he can become their albatross on the bench.

I think the debate is what is he worth at full health. Some on here want to say it's 35 million because he was great at the plate for half of a season. I would want to see greatness at the plate for multiple seasons before assuming he's worth that much.

You draft players based on potential. You pay them based on what they have accomplished. Buxton is not an accomplished superstar. IF he stayed healthy for a full season, he's probably worth 22-24 million per season based on his current accomplishments. Multiply by .5 or .6 to factor in his health, and that's 11-12 million per season.

Maybe the Twins aren't that far off...
 



forever a gopher

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I think the debate is what is he worth at full health. Some on here want to say it's 35 million because he was great at the plate for half of a season. I would want to see greatness at the plate for multiple seasons before assuming he's worth that much.

You draft players based on potential. You pay them based on what they have accomplished. Buxton is not an accomplished superstar. IF he stayed healthy for a full season, he's probably worth 22-24 million per season based on his current accomplishments. Multiply by .5 or .6 to factor in his health, and that's 11-12 million per season.

Maybe the Twins aren't that far off...
Additionally, I would argue that there should be a (negative) escalator involved here. For the length of Buxton's tenure here, we'll always have to have another guy that can play 60-90 games in CF. It will in a way always be a platoon situation. There is inherent value in being able to pencil a guy in a certain position for the vast majority of the year. It gives you stability and the ability to use those "flex" positions elsewhere (3rd catcher, another RP, etc.). Yes, they currently have guys that can play CF, but they also aren't top half in the league at that position, and then when they slide over, you have to fill that vacated position, so it becomes a game of dominoes. Sure, you always do that from time to time, but to have to plan on doing it consistently for the next 5+ years while paying full price is just crazy to me.
 

short ornery norwegian

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Bump.

Buxton reaches deal for 7-year, $100-million contract with Twins. More details in the Twins thread.

In other news, former fan-favorite Twins player Eduardo Escobar signs with the Mets. The Mets also sign Starling Marte.
 






Gopher_In_NYC

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should be a bananas 48 hour sprint for signings until the CBA expires. This site has a good layout for the deals inked (what they have posted as of now - surprised that Rangers went that long/$$ with Semien, but good for them) -


Marcus SemienSS31.2RRTORTEX7$175,000,000$25,000,000
Kevin GausmanSP30.8LRSFTOR5$110,000,000$22,000,000
Starling MarteCF33.1RROAKNYM4$78,000,000$19,500,000
Eduardo RodriguezSP28.6LLBOSDET5$77,000,000$15,400,000
Jon GraySP30.0RRCOLTEX4$56,000,000$14,000,000
Avisail GarciaRF30.4RRMILMIA4$53,000,000$13,250,000
 

atsgopher

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They've already done that many times. As long as the value of the team keeps going up, they don't give a shit about us fans. One of the numerous reasons why I just don't care nearly as much as I used to or get nearly as worked up about pro sports.

Living in Mpls, I couldn't get the games on the radio prior to the switch back to WCCO. I lived 5 miles from where the game is being played, and I couldn't reliably hear the game (yes, I understand that's not where the radio tower is, but in principle it's absurd). Of course, I was listening on the radio because they gave exclusive TV rights to the cable channels, so no Sunday afternoon TV games for me, even though my tax dollars in Hennepin County helped line their pockets.
I don’t know how many times friends thought my argument about not getting Twins on radio in MPLS was silly. They always assumed I had some political axe to grind against KSTP. I just want the freaking game.
 



atsgopher

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should be a bananas 48 hour sprint for signings until the CBA expires. This site has a good layout for the deals inked (what they have posted as of now - surprised that Rangers went that long/$$ with Semien, but good for them) -


Marcus SemienSS31.2RRTORTEX7$175,000,000$25,000,000
Kevin GausmanSP30.8LRSFTOR5$110,000,000$22,000,000
Starling MarteCF33.1RROAKNYM4$78,000,000$19,500,000
Eduardo RodriguezSP28.6LLBOSDET5$77,000,000$15,400,000
Jon GraySP30.0RRCOLTEX4$56,000,000$14,000,000
Avisail GarciaRF30.4RRMILMIA4$53,000,000$13,250,000
Does TX’s prior spending take them out of the Robbie Ray running?
 







Gopher_In_NYC

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Franco inks 11 year for $182M and ould max out to $223M, so he won’t be wandering from Tampa anytime soon.

excellent keep sticking it to the Yanks
 
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Gopher_In_NYC

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Popping’ now. Seager to Rangers $325M for 10 years

Ray to Mariners for 5 and $115M
 





Gopher_In_NYC

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Javy Baviez to Det for 6 years and $140M - wow. Kudos to the Mets for not signing him, great talent who seems to be challenged above the shoulders (double birds anyone?).

So does Detriot really regret thi of the s in year 2 or 3 contract?

Some Tiger fans apparently are getting the jump on it before he takes any ABs -

 
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howeda7

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Javy Baviez to Det for 6 years and $140M - wow. Kudos to the Mets for not signing him, great talent who seems to be challenged above the shoulders (double birds anyone?).

So does Detriot really regret thi of the s in year 2 or 3 contract?

Some Tiger fans apparently are getting the jump on it before he takes any ABs -

Mr. Little Ceasar's is suddenly opening the wallet big time.
 


short ornery norwegian

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I remember when Killebrew getting $100,000 a year from the Twins was a big deal. Shoot, Calvin used to cut a player's salary if they had a bad year.

Then they got rid of that pesky reserve clause, and the sport went to hell.
 




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